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SIP At Peaks Or Bottoms? Market Timing May Not Be As Crucial As You Think
SIP At Peaks Or Bottoms? Market Timing May Not Be As Crucial As You Think

News18

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • News18

SIP At Peaks Or Bottoms? Market Timing May Not Be As Crucial As You Think

Experts say the probability of consistently investing in SIP at market bottoms is extremely low, making market timing an unreliable strategy Systematic Investment Plan, or SIP, is emerging as a popular investment method. It offers a means for disciplined investing, as you set aside a fixed sum of money every month for future savings. A SIP offers potential for long-term wealth creation, as you gain from the power of compounding and can get a diversified portfolio with just one investment, which is managed by an expert. But what is the right day to start a SIP? Timing matters a lot when you're batting – like finding the sweet spot on the bat. In mutual fund investing, it might matter a lot less. A study by Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund shows that investors who started SIPs at market peaks and those who began at market bottoms ended up with nearly identical long-term returns. The first period examined in the study was from 2000 to 2005, a time marked by the aftermath of the global bubble burst and the Indian market's subsequent recovery – a phase of high volatility. During this period, the Nifty 500 Index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio swung sharply, peaking at 37.26 on February 24, 2000, and bottoming out at 11.58 on September 21, 2001. This minimal return disparity is attributed to rupee cost averaging, a key feature of SIPs, which helps smoothen out the effects of market volatility. The study reinforces the idea that regular investing across market cycles reduces the risk associated with market timing. Even though starting SIPs at the bottom of the market may deliver slightly higher returns in the short term, the advantage diminishes considerably over time. Experts point out that the probability of consistently investing at market bottoms is extremely low, making market timing an unreliable strategy. 'Time in the market beats timing the market," said Pratik Oswal, Head of Passive Funds at Motilal Oswal AMC. Financial advisors echo this view, recommending consistent and disciplined investing for long-term wealth creation rather than attempting to predict market movements. About the Author Aparna Deb Stay updated with all the latest business news, including market trends, stock updates, tax, IPO, banking finance, real estate, savings and investments. Get in-depth analysis, expert opinions, and real-time updates—only on News18. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : SIP First Published: July 30, 2025, 12:22 IST News business » savings-and-investments SIP At Peaks Or Bottoms? Market Timing May Not Be As Crucial As You Think Latest News Modi Govt's Efforts Put Terrorism On Global Agenda: Jaishankar During Op Sindoor Debate India Savings And Investments SIP At Peaks Or Bottoms? Market Timing May Not Be As Crucial As You Think Telugu Cinema Vijay Deverakonda's Kingdom To Give US Fans A Head Start With July 30 Premiere Viral Japan, Russia Tsunami: What Is Safe To Eat? Explained As Floodwater May Contaminate Food Bollywood Anil Kapoor Calls Anand Ahuja 'Heart Of The Family' In Special Birthday Post latest news

Market timing has little impact on SIP returns: Motilal Oswal MF study
Market timing has little impact on SIP returns: Motilal Oswal MF study

Economic Times

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Economic Times

Market timing has little impact on SIP returns: Motilal Oswal MF study

Synopsis A study by Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund reveals an interesting insight. The study suggests that Systematic Investment Plans or SIP returns are nearly identical. It does not matter whether investments started at market peaks or bottoms. Investors who began SIPs during high and low market valuations earned similar long-term returns. Pratik Oswal advises against overthinking market timing for SIPs. IANS An investor who started a SIP on January 4, 2008, when the Nifty 500 PE was 27.07, earned a return of 13.97%, while one who began investing when the Nifty 500 PE had dropped to 9.29 on October 27, 2008, earned a return of 14.36%. Mumbai: Timing matters a lot when you're batting - like finding the sweet spot on the bat. In mutual fund investing, it might matter a lot less. A study by Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund shows that investors who started SIPs at market peaks and those who began at market bottoms ended up with nearly identical long-term returns. The first period examined in the study was from 2000 to 2005, a time marked by the aftermath of the global bubble burst and the Indian market's subsequent recovery - a phase of high volatility. During this period, the Nifty 500 Index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio swung sharply, peaking at 37.26 on February 24, 2000, and bottoming out at 11.58 on September 21, 2001. Despite this wide valuation gap, investors who started SIPs in either of these extremes and continued till March 2025 ended up with nearly identical long-term returns. An investor who began investing in February 2000 earned a CAGR of 15.47%, while one who started at the lower valuation in September 2001 earned 15.55%, according to the study."Relying solely on valuation levels to start SIPs adds unnecessary hesitation," said Pratik Oswal, head - Passives, Motilal Oswal Asset Management. Similarly, between 2006 and 2010, the stock market went on a rollercoaster ride - surging during a roaring bull run, plunging during the global financial crisis, and eventually staging a investor who started a SIP on January 4, 2008, when the Nifty 500 PE was 27.07, earned a return of 13.97%, while one who began investing when the Nifty 500 PE had dropped to 9.29 on October 27, 2008, earned a return of 14.36%. 'Systematic investment plans go through an entire business cycle seeing ups and downs. This volatility over longer terms averages out returns,' says Nikhil Gupta, founder of Sage Capital. Between 2011 and 2015, the stock market witnessed a volatile period. Equities were under pressure till mid-2013 after India was famously lumped together as part of 'Fragile Five'— a term used to describe emerging market economies that were vulnerable to capital flight risks. Subsequently, stocks rebounded on indications that the Narendra Modi-led BJP is coming to power. A SIP started on August 19, 2015, when the Nifty 500 PE was 25.79, returned 15.26%, compared with a SIP started on August 28, 2013, at a PE of 15.11, which returned 14.89%. 'Consistent long-term investing through SIPs have shown effectiveness regardless of where the market stands during the time of investing,' said Oswal.

Market timing has little impact on SIP returns: Motilal Oswal MF study
Market timing has little impact on SIP returns: Motilal Oswal MF study

Time of India

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

Market timing has little impact on SIP returns: Motilal Oswal MF study

Mumbai: Timing matters a lot when you're batting - like finding the sweet spot on the bat. In mutual fund investing, it might matter a lot less. A study by Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund shows that investors who started SIPs at market peaks and those who began at market bottoms ended up with nearly identical long-term returns. The first period examined in the study was from 2000 to 2005, a time marked by the aftermath of the global bubble burst and the Indian market's subsequent recovery - a phase of high volatility. During this period, the Nifty 500 Index 's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio swung sharply, peaking at 37.26 on February 24, 2000, and bottoming out at 11.58 on September 21, 2001. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Public Policy Others Data Analytics others Design Thinking Project Management Artificial Intelligence Degree Cybersecurity Leadership MCA Management Data Science Healthcare MBA Product Management healthcare PGDM Technology Finance Digital Marketing CXO Data Science Operations Management Skills you'll gain: Duration: 12 Months IIM Calcutta Executive Programme in Public Policy and Management Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Economics for Public Policy Making Quantitative Techniques Public & Project Finance Law, Health & Urban Development Policy Duration: 12 Months IIM Kozhikode Professional Certificate Programme in Public Policy Management Starts on Mar 3, 2024 Get Details Agencies Despite this wide valuation gap, investors who started SIPs in either of these extremes and continued till March 2025 ended up with nearly identical long-term returns. An investor who began investing in February 2000 earned a CAGR of 15.47%, while one who started at the lower valuation in September 2001 earned 15.55%, according to the study. Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villas Prices In Dubai Might Be More Affordable Than You Think Villas In Dubai | Search Ads Get Quote Undo "Relying solely on valuation levels to start SIPs adds unnecessary hesitation," said Pratik Oswal, head - Passives, Motilal Oswal Asset Management. Similarly, between 2006 and 2010, the stock market went on a rollercoaster ride - surging during a roaring bull run, plunging during the global financial crisis, and eventually staging a recovery. An investor who started a SIP on January 4, 2008, when the Nifty 500 PE was 27.07, earned a return of 13.97%, while one who began investing when the Nifty 500 PE had dropped to 9.29 on October 27, 2008, earned a return of 14.36%. Live Events 'Systematic investment plans go through an entire business cycle seeing ups and downs. This volatility over longer terms averages out returns,' says Nikhil Gupta, founder of Sage Capital. Between 2011 and 2015, the stock market witnessed a volatile period. Equities were under pressure till mid-2013 after India was famously lumped together as part of 'Fragile Five'— a term used to describe emerging market economies that were vulnerable to capital flight risks. Subsequently, stocks rebounded on indications that the Narendra Modi-led BJP is coming to power. A SIP started on August 19, 2015, when the Nifty 500 PE was 25.79, returned 15.26%, compared with a SIP started on August 28, 2013, at a PE of 15.11, which returned 14.89%. 'Consistent long-term investing through SIPs have shown effectiveness regardless of where the market stands during the time of investing,' said Oswal.

UPI will work slightly differently from August 1: Here's what's changing
UPI will work slightly differently from August 1: Here's what's changing

Hindustan Times

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Hindustan Times

UPI will work slightly differently from August 1: Here's what's changing

Starting August 1, your daily UPI habits on apps like Google Pay and PhonePe may feel a little different. NPCI (National Payments Corporation of India) is rolling out a set of backend rule changes to streamline how UPI handles balance checks, autopay requests, payment failures, and linked account verifications. These aren't earth-shattering updates, but if you're someone who uses UPI multiple times a day (which, let's face it, is most of us), you'll want to know what's new. UPI is changing starting August 1. New time slots for UPI autopay requests If you've set up automatic payments like OTT subscriptions, rent agreements, or SIPs, those UPI Autopay requests will now be timed more precisely. From August 1, UPI apps will be required to send these requests between 12 AM and 7 AM. The idea is to minimize server congestion and delays during peak hours. You'll still receive notifications, but expect them early in the morning. Balance checks now have a limit One of the silent data-heavy tasks on UPI is balance checking, especially with biometric authentication like Face ID or fingerprint. To prevent overload, there will now be a limit on how many times you can check your balance in a day. NPCI hasn't disclosed the exact cap yet, but it's designed to stop abuse of the system, especially from bots or high-frequency checkers. Faster status updates on failed transactions We've all dealt with UPI payments stuck in limbo—money debited, but the other side hasn't received it. NPCI is addressing this by tightening timelines. Starting next month, UPI apps will have to show the actual payment status (success/fail) within seconds, instead of letting it remain 'Processing' or 'Pending' for several minutes. That means less uncertainty and fewer screenshots sent to confused vendors. Linked account verification will be more secure UPI apps will now follow a stricter verification process when you try to link a new bank account. This may involve additional checks from the bank's end to confirm the account belongs to you. It adds a layer of friction, yes, but it also reduces the risk of accidental or fraudulent linking. These updates are subtle but helpful. They're mostly aimed at making UPI smoother, safer, and less annoying during rush hours or payment hiccups. You don't need to change how you use UPI, but from August 1, you'll notice the system working a little smarter.

Rs 1 lakh salary, still broke? CA points out 7 financial blunders you might be making
Rs 1 lakh salary, still broke? CA points out 7 financial blunders you might be making

Time of India

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

Rs 1 lakh salary, still broke? CA points out 7 financial blunders you might be making

You just got your salary. The message pops up — Salary credited. Feels good, right? But before you know it, half your paycheck's already gone: dinners, impulsive shopping, EMIs, subscriptions you forgot you had. And by the end of the month, you're wondering — Where did all my money go? If this sounds familiar, you're not alone. According to CA Nitin Kaushik , even people earning ₹50,000 to ₹1 lakh a month often feel broke — not because they don't earn enough, but because they fall into the same money traps again and again. He recently shared 7 classic financial blunders that most Indians make, along with smart ways to break the cycle. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category 1. Spending before budgeting The biggest mistake? Spending first, budgeting later — or never. The CA gives an example where you earn Rs 50,000. You blow Rs 12,000 on weekend takeout and random online buys. By mid-month, you're scraping by. Instead, he says to flip the script and follow the 50-30-20 rule: - 50% on needs (like rent and bills) - 30% on wants (like Netflix or dinners) - 20% on savings and investments 2. No emergency funds Emergencies don't wait until you're 'ready.' According to Nitin Kaushik , a sudden Rs 15,000 hospital bill or job loss can throw your entire month into chaos. Start building an emergency fund now — even Rs 2,000/month can add up. Your goal: at least Rs 75,000 to Rs 1 lakh, parked safely in a liquid fund or fixed deposit. — Finance_Bareek (@Finance_Bareek) 3. Saving, but not investing Stashing Rs 20,000 in a savings account sounds responsible — until you realise it earns just 3% interest (that's Rs 600 a year). Instead, he suggests trying SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans). Investing Rs 5,000/month for 10 years with decent returns (12–14%) can grow to over Rs 11–13 lakhs. That's the power of compounding. 4. Lifestyle inflation Got a raise? Congrats — but the CA warns to not rushing to upgrade your phone, wardrobe, or car. This is where most people lose money. Your salary grows, but your expenses grow faster. He recommends trying this instead: keep your lifestyle steady for a year. Channel the 'extra' money into investments and let it grow. Live like you're still earning less — future-you will thank you. 5. Impulse shopping The CA further points out that ordering on apps like Zomato, Amazon, and Myntra means temptation is everywhere. Before you know it, you've spent Rs 5,000 on stuff you didn't need. Use the 24-hour rule: Add to cart. Wait 24 hours. Still want it? Buy it. If not, let it go. Your bank balance will look a lot healthier. 6. EMIs that trap you 'Rs 5,000 EMI? That's nothing!' But over a year, that's Rs 60,000+ of your salary gone. Kaushik suggests keeping EMIs under 15% of your net monthly income. And always ask yourself: 'Can I afford this if I lose my job tomorrow?' If the answer is no, rethink that purchase. 7. Not tracking your money The simplest fix? Know where every rupee goes. Most people don't track their spending, then wonder why their money disappears. Just 30 days of tracking (via a free app or even a Google Sheet) can completely change your money habits, he said. CA's final advice: Your salary is not just for spending. It's your launchpad. Your first investor. Your key to freedom. Whether you earn Rs 30,000 or Rs 1 lakh, the way you handle your money makes all the difference. Control it now — or spend years letting it control you.

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