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Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
May stock gains, June watchlist, bitcoin: Market Takeaways
US stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) capped off a historic May trading month with serious gains, the Nasdaq Composite ending the month over 9.5% higher and the S&P 500 seeing its best May since 1990. Yahoo Finance markets and data editor Jared Blikre comes on Asking for a Trend to outline the month's biggest market themes, including what to expect in June and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price moves. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. Well, the S&P 500 marking its best May in 30 years with the Nasdaq surging nearly 10% this month. Yahoo Finance Jared Blickry joining us now with the trading day takeaways, Jared. Yeah, we got to start with this historic May because this was totally unexpected, especially in the depths of despair in April. And by the way, this was not only the best May since 1990, but the second best since 1948 and the fifth best since 1928, and that includes a bunch of crazy years in the 1930s. Everybody remembers those, right? All right. So here's a sector action over these 21 days. XLK, that is tech that grabs the front. That is up 10%. Then industrials, that is up 8.8%. Then you got consumer discretionary communication services. Here's the S&P 500 itself up 6.2%. So all of these are outperforming. That's our definition greater than the benchmark. And guess what? If you look at the Nasdaq, you can really see some of these high flyers here in the mag 7, these big market cap. Nvidia up over 20%. So is Broadcom. So is Tesla. That's three out of the top eight. Apple is kind of a black eye there, but whatever. And then if you look at the Dow, very similar story. Healthcare was the worst performing sector. If you remember the only one in the red there. And so we've got United Health down 12, 26% and Mark down about 10%, Josh. All right. So may solid. What's coming next? Yes. So I ran some stats on June and I'm going to be doing a deep dive on or yeah, Monday morning. And here's what I found so far. This is just looking at June, but I'm going to look ahead until the end of the year and also until next May. So a full year out. And what I did was I got this idea from Ryan Dietrich. He was looking at all the S&P 500 years where May was up more than a certain percentage. I think he was using 4%. I decided to use 3% because it gives a few more data points and 18 in total going all the way back to 1928. I sloughed off a few because I started at 1950, but the net result is June is one of the worst months, but still up 6 tenths of a percent. So about half of 1%, and it's positive 61% of the time. Nothing to write home about admittedly, but here's where the things get interesting here. S&P 500 since 1928 is less than that. It's about half of the returns and up a slightly less percent positive the time. That's up 58% of the time. And then if we go since 1990, June is actually one of the two worst months. I think I think September is actually the worst, and that's only up about 6 tenths of a percent. So the bottom line is June is not a great month, but given the strong May performance, it should be a little bit better. That gives it just a little bit better tilt. And if you recall, we had a really we were expecting a bullish April, that did not materialize. So I want to add a grain of salt here. Anything with the tariffs can kind of derail what we're talking about here in terms of seasonality. Final question, what would be on your your wall of worry? What are the risks, the concerns we need to think about? Exactly. I'm looking at Bitcoin, um, a Bitcoin rut pull because I have been looking at the price action. One of the things that Bitcoin has done historically, and let's get off this screen and get to Bitcoin, and let's actually show the trailing month here in crypto. So Bitcoin is up 11.2%, Ethereum's up 44%. These are nice numbers, but the chart was a little concerning because one of the things that Bitcoin is famous for is breaking to new highs and these are new highs right here, and then just descending and kind of reversing the trend. So if you see this trend line that I'm drawing in right here, it has broken the trend line. 105,000 is a make or break. You can see it's right below it right now. Uh, so I want to see it kind of climb above that, and then it'd be nice to get to new highs early next week. And then in terms of the general market, I have noticed that Bitcoin has been leading. So if Bitcoin falters here, maybe we do get that June surprise to the downside. So Bitcoin is going to be one of the things I'm watching over this weekend. I was going to ask you this weekend. Is it Bitcoin? Is it the greenback? If I have if I have to watch something, it might as well be Bitcoin, Josh. Thank you. Appreciate your perfect. Thank you. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Where the Stock Market Stands Now After a Wild Start to the Year
(Bloomberg) -- The stock market's crazy first five months of 2025 have left Wall Street pros in a bit of a pickle. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Where the Wild Children's Museums Are Coming off the best month for the S&P 500 Index in a year and a half and the best May since 1990, the benchmark is still basically flat for 2025 and putting up one of its worst starts to a year since the 1950s. In a rare switch, it's also getting handily beaten by stock markets around the world. Yes, the S&P rebounded from its lowest level since December 2023, which it hit in April, and is less than 4% from its all-time high. But raging uncertainties from President Donald Trump's trade wars, to slowing growth, to geopolitical tensions, to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path have left corporate executives as pessimistic as they've been since 2022, according to the Conference Board's latest CEO confidence survey. And to make matters even more complicated, the stock market is about to enter what's historically one of its quietest months for gains. Over the past 30 years, the S&P's average return is roughly flat for June, as much of Wall Street begins its summer holiday season. Meaning in 30 days there's a decent chance we'll be sitting right where we are now. With all that going on, what's an investor to do? 'Trying trade through all of this has been really tough as everyone rides through this chaotic storm,' said Eric Beiley, executive managing director of wealth management at Steward Partners, who has nearly 10% of his portfolio in cash and is buying international and defensive stocks. 'May's gains have given confidence back to investors, but holding put seems like the safer bet for now until we know more about the outlook on trade and rates.' Here are five charts that show just how rocky the US stock market's ride has been this year: The S&P 500's 19% plunge from its Feb. 19 record — which pushed it into a correction in just 16 trading days and brought it to the brink of a bear market — gave bulls some attractive entry points to buy into the stock market. But after its almost 19% rebound since then, equity valuations have gotten much more stretched. That, however, doesn't mean US stocks are actually doing well compared to the rest of the world. The S&P 500 is trailing the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US Index by almost 12 percentage points in 2025, marking the worst start to a year against its global peers since 1993 and its second-worst ever, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It's been a stunning reversal for investors to process. With all the swinging, the S&P 500 is up 0.5% for the year, which pales in comparison to recent memory, as the index notched gains of more than 20% both in 2023 and 2024, something that hasn't happened since the late 1990s. But this doesn't necessarily mean the stock market is done climbing. Historically, the third year of a US bull market, like now, is the weakest. Since World War II, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of just 5.2% in year three. And in each of the last 11 bull markets that went more than two years, there was a correction of at least 5% in the third year, with five suffering declines of more than 10%, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. So how does the current bull run stack up historically? The S&P 500 has soared 65% from its bear market low on Oct. 12, 2022. That's 31 months. Since 1947, bull markets have averaged 55 months, CFRA data show. So there's still ample room to run, though things may get bumpy after a two-year stretch of outsized gains, according to Stovall. Improved breadth - meaning broader participation in the rally that has been primarily focused on the biggest technology stocks — could provide some juice for the next leg higher in share prices. The market's best performing sector this year is industrials, an optimistic sign for shares and growth since those companies are closely tied to the economy and manufacture goods and transport them. The group has climbed 8.2% in 2025. Defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples companies, which tend to have low valuations and offer robust dividends, are also atop the leader board while consumer discretionary shares that house some of the biggest retailers, homebuilders and automakers are among the worst performers this year. A basket tracking the Magnificent Seven stocks — Alphabet Inc., Inc., Apple Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp., Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. — has soared 29% since its April lows, but remains down 4.3% for the year. So what's next for stocks? Looking at history isn't encouraging, at least for the next month. The S&P 500 has risen just 0.2% on average in June over the past three decades, compared with a 0.8% move in the other 11 months of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In post-US presidential election years over the past seven decades, the S&P 500 has typically struggled in early June as investors booked profits heading into the summer. This is particularly true if the index gets a strong boost in May, like it did this year with a 6.2% jump. --With assistance from Elena Popina. YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol AI Is Helping Executives Tackle the Dreaded Post-Vacation Inbox ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Bloomberg
8 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Where the Stock Market Stands Now After a Wild Start to the Year
The stock market's crazy first five months of 2025 have left Wall Street pros in a bit of a pickle. Coming off the best month for the S&P 500 Index in a year and a half and the best May since 1990, the benchmark is still basically flat for 2025 and putting up one of its worst starts to a year since the 1950s. In a rare switch, it's also getting handily beaten by stock markets around the world.
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
1 Magnificent Vanguard ETF to Confidently Buy With $600 During the Stock Market Rebound
The S&P 500 is on the road to recovery after plunging by as much as 19% from its all-time high in April. Information technology is the dominant sector in the S&P 500, and it's home to trillion-dollar giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF can help investors gain broad exposure to powerful trends like artificial intelligence (AI). 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Information Technology ETF › The S&P 500 was down by as much as 19% from its all-time high after President Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2. But it erased those losses since then because several countries have come to the table to negotiate new trade deals and the federal Court of International Trade ruled many of the tariffs were illegal, lowering the odds of an economic downturn. The S&P 500 is the most diversified of the major U.S. stock market indexes, hosting 500 companies from 11 sectors of the economy. But information technology is the largest sector in the index by far, representing 31.7% of its total market capitalization (value). It's home to the world's three largest companies: Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple, which are worth a combined $9.85 trillion. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSEMKT: VGT) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests exclusively in information technology stocks. It outperformed the S&P 500 every year, on average, since it was established in 2004, on the back of powerful technological trends like cloud computing, enterprise software, and now artificial intelligence (AI). Investors can buy one share in the Vanguard Information Technology ETF for around $600, and here's why it might be a good move as the broader market continues to recover. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF invests across the entire information technology sector, whether companies are in the S&P 500 or not. As a result, it currently holds 307 stocks spread across 12 subsegments of the sector. The semiconductor segment has the largest weighting in the ETF at 26.8%, followed by systems software at 21% and technology hardware and storage at 18.8%. Companies like Nvidia and Broadcom are the main reason the semiconductor segment has such a dominant representation. Both companies are leading suppliers of data center chips and components specifically designed for AI development, and they are experiencing more demand than they can possibly meet right now. As a result, Nvidia stock soared 1,490% over the last five years, catapulting the company to a $3.45 trillion valuation. Broadcom stock is up 726% over the same period, and the company is now worth $1.1 trillion. But Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Apple aren't the only leading AI stocks in the Vanguard ETF. It holds dozens of others that typically receive less attention but are of very high quality, and here are just a few of them: Stock Vanguard ETF Portfolio Weighting Salesforce 1.75% Palantir Technologies 1.73% Oracle 1.59% ServiceNow 1.36% Adobe 1.14% Advanced Micro Devices 1.09% Palo Alto Networks 0.87% CrowdStrike 0.75% Micron Technology 0.61% Snowflake 0.38% Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of April 30, 2025, and are subject to change. Salesforce developed the world's most popular customer relationship management (CRM) platform, where businesses can store client data and track sales. But it has a growing portfolio of AI products like Einstein, a powerful virtual assistant that can write sales emails, instantly summarize phone calls with customers, and produce data-driven insights to help employees drive more revenue. Palantir developed a series of AI-powered software platforms like Foundry, Gotham, and AIP, which help businesses and governments extract more value from their data. Then there is Oracle, which is building some of the most advanced and cost-efficient data centers in the world for developing AI models. Advanced Micro Devices launched a series of graphics processing units (GPUs) for the data center to compete with Nvidia, and it's having quite a bit of success. Micron, on the other hand, makes memory and storage chips, which are increasingly important for processing AI workloads. In fact, Micron's high-bandwidth memory can be found in Nvidia's most powerful GPUs. Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike are two of the world's biggest cybersecurity companies, and AI is central to almost all of their products. It enables their respective platforms to automate tasks like threat detection and incident response, which reduces the workload on human cybersecurity managers and ensures fewer threats slip through the cracks. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF delivered a compound annual return of 12.8% since it was established in 2004, so it has heavily outperformed the S&P 500, which has returned 9.6% per year, on average, over the same period. That 3.2 percentage point difference might not sound like much at face value, but over a long-term period of 22 years, it would result in double the return in dollar terms thanks to the effects of compounding. I'm not suggesting investors should put all of their eggs in one basket, because the technology sector can be very volatile. However, young investors who can afford to take some risk might benefit from a larger allocation to this high-growth segment of the market, especially as megatrends like AI unfold. An investor who placed $50,000 in the S&P 500 in 2004 would be sitting on $342,761 today. But had they split that $50,000 equally and placed $25,000 in the S&P 500 and $25,000 in the Vanguard Information Technology ETF, they would have $485,019 today. That's a life-changing difference in potential returns over the long run. There is a risk that AI fails to live up to the hype, which would dent the valuations of many of the companies in the information technology sector. However, several companies are successfully monetizing AI in its current state already, and its capabilities are only expected to improve from here. As a result, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF might be a great buy right now for long-term investors. Before you buy stock in Vanguard Information Technology ETF, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Vanguard Information Technology ETF wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $651,761!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $826,263!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 170% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025 Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Adobe, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, CrowdStrike, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir Technologies, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and Palo Alto Networks and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 1 Magnificent Vanguard ETF to Confidently Buy With $600 During the Stock Market Rebound was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
11 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Select Wall Street Analysts Are Raising Their S&P 500 Targets for 2025. Here's What You Should Do, Based on Decades of History.
President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs rocked Wall Street in April, prompting many top analysts to slash their 2025 forecasts for the S&P 500. Two of those analysts reversed course after Trump paused the worst of the tariffs, and a recent court ruling could hold them off indefinitely. History provides a clear playbook for dealing with stock market volatility, and it's simpler than you might think. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) was down by as much as 19% from its all-time high after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on America's trading partners in April. Analysts at almost every top investment firm on Wall Street agreed the tariffs would trigger an economic slowdown, which would dent corporate earnings. As a result, they raced to slash their 2025 price targets for the S&P 500, and some of them even predicted the index would deliver a negative return for the year. But optimism crept back onto Wall Street after Trump quickly paused some of the harsher tariffs. Plus, in another positive turn of events, a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade on May 28 suggested the president never had grounds to impose the tariffs at all. This decision was paused by the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, setting the stage for a legal battle over the next month. The S&P 500 is steadily recovering, and at least two top analysts have partly reversed their recent price target cuts. These swings can be very difficult to navigate, but history provides a very clear playbook for dealing with stock market volatility. Here's what investors should do. Before we dive into where the S&P 500 might go next, let's recap what happened in April, because tariffs probably aren't going away entirely. Trump dubbed April 2 "Liberation Day," and he marked the occasion by announcing a 10% tariff on all imported goods from every country in the world. He also added a series of much higher "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from specific countries that have large trade imbalances with the U.S. Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days shortly after April 2 to make way for good-faith negotiations with America's trading partners, but the May 28 ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked them entirely. They were reinstated a few hours later by the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which will oversee arguments from the plaintiffs and the government in early June. In other words, there is still a chance the May 28 ruling will stand, potentially setting up an even bigger showdown in the Supreme Court. The May 28 ruling also blocked the sweeping 10% tariffs, but even if this stands, there are other ways for the administration to reinstate them using a different justification. For example, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 could give Trump the authority to impose broad tariffs of up to 15% on imported goods, but they can only remain in place for 150 days (roughly four months). Trump is trying to achieve two main objectives with the trade levies. First, he wants to encourage companies to manufacture more of their products inside America. Second, he wants other countries to lower their trade barriers so U.S. businesses can sell their products into those markets with more freedom. On the first point, it could take years for American companies to move their offshore production back home. Technology analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities predicts Apple might need a full decade to move iPhone manufacturing to the U.S. from its facilities in China, and in the meantime, American consumers would have to suffer under the weight of tariffs, which increase the price of the goods they buy each day. Any reduction in consumer spending would have downstream effects on businesses and supply chains all over the country, which might even lead to a recession. In that scenario, corporate earnings would take a significant hit, which is why analysts were so downbeat on the S&P 500 after April 2. Below is a list of top Wall Street firms and investment banks that slashed their 2025 targets for the S&P 500 on the back of the rising global trade tensions: Oppenheimer cut its S&P 500 target for 2025 from 7,100 to 5,950. Yardeni Research slashed its target from 7,000 to 6,400, and then again to 6,000. Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate from 6,500 to 6,200, and then to 5,700. RBC Capital Markets reduced its forecast from 6,600 to 5,500. Barclays trimmed its target from 6,600 to 5,900. UBS cut its estimate from 6,400 to 5,800. HSBC slashed its target from 6,700 to 5,600. The S&P 500 ended 2024 at a price of 5,881, so the revised targets from Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, UBS, and HSBC implied a negative return for the index this year. But sentiment has started to turn for the better now that Trump's reciprocal tariffs are on hold, and top analysts at two firms recently increased their S&P 500 targets for this year. In early May, David Kostin and his team at Goldman Sachs lifted their three-month price target to 5,900, and their 12-month target to 6,500. Around the same time, Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research raised his 2025 target back to 6,500, specifically citing the rollback of Trump's tariffs. The S&P 500 has already climbed back to 5,900 as of this writing, so it's up by a whopping 23% from its April low point. It would still have to climb by another 4% to reclaim its all-time high, but it's certainly trending in the right direction. Here's the bottom line: Market sell-offs and extreme volatility are a normal part of investing. According to Capital Group, corrections of at least 10% occur every two and a half years, on average. Crashes of 20% or more -- which is the technical threshold for a bear market -- happen every six years or so. Investors have weathered four bear markets over the last 25 years alone, triggered by the bursting of the dot-com internet bubble in 2000, the global financial crisis in 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the inflation surge in 2022. The S&P 500 went on to make new record highs every single time. Steep sell-offs are the price investors pay for the opportunity to earn significant returns over the long run. In fact, the S&P 500 has delivered a compound annual return of 10.3% since it was established in 1957, even after accounting for every sell-off, correction, and bear market. The lesson? Stay the course and focus on the long run. History suggests a market sell-off is more likely to be a buying opportunity than a reason to panic sell. After all, the big swings in Wall Street's price targets this year are proof that even the experts struggle to predict the short-term direction of the stock market. Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $638,985!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $853,108!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025 HSBC Holdings is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool recommends Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Select Wall Street Analysts Are Raising Their S&P 500 Targets for 2025. Here's What You Should Do, Based on Decades of History. was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
