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Forbes
4 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Gold To Move Higher Into Year End:Here Are The Factors.
Gold is likely headed to $3800. Hold gold positions for the following reasons: August (up 61% of the time for a 0.84% gain) and September (up 54% of the time for a 1.25% gain) have been the 2 strongest months for the gold price The dynamic monthly cycle is rising. When this cycle is rising in these 2 months, add 10%-15% to the monthly bullish probabilities The next seasonal peak is in mid-October. For those readers who may be new to the cycles analysis approach, here are the guidelines. The most basic cycle is the annual seasonal cycle. For example, we all know that stocks tend to be strong in the spring and in Q4, weak in September, etc. The gold annual cycle is graphed below. 1-Gold Monthly Histogram (Expected Return) The June-September period has been the most bullish time interval for gold. Cycles Research Investments LLC The next cycle is dynamic. All cycles are calculated and the profitable cycles are accumulated and projected into the future. The best projections are those in which both sets of cycles point up or both point down. Currently, both point up. Here is a valuable feature of cyclical analysis. Gold had formed a triangle, and then broke down from this formation in late July. Application of basic technical analysis would have called this a serious breakdown and a sell signal. The rising monthly cycle was an indication that this break was false. Following the cycle and remaining long gold paid off. 2-Daily Gold Note the false break and the subsequent recovery. Cycles Research Investments LLC 3-Gold Monthly Cycle The monthly gold cycle rises through 2025. Cycles Research Investments LLC To set a new price projection, one measures the height of this triangle formation, about $400. Adding this to the point of breakout projects a $3800 price target. The August-September time period has been the most positive seasonal interval. Momentum is strong, so higher prices are likely to the 15th and beyond to $3800. Do keep in mind that gold (and oil) tend to be very weak in the second half of October. There are different ways to profit from the gold rally. There are two ETFs that are recommended. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) tracks the gold price. A 1% rise in the metal price will raise this ETF price by 1%. More aggressive investors may prefer ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL). This leveraged ETF moves at twice the gold price. In addition, there are many gold mining stocks. One of the best known and most liquid is Newmont Mining. Below, we see the three-up graph, the monthly price cycle projection, and the monthly price histogram. We see a new high in relative strength in the daily strip. There are higher lows in momentum both weekly and monthly. And, a three-year relative downtrend has been reversed to the upside. The monthly cycle rises through yearend. Chart 6 is the monthly histogram of the share price. Keep in mind that the month of October has been very weak. 4-Newmont-Daily, Weekly, Monthly This is a bullish picture. Cycles Research Investments LLC 5-Newmont Monthly Cycle This cycle also rises through 2025. Cycles Research Investments LLC 6-Newmont Monthly Histogram (Expected Return) August has been the strongest month for NEM and October has been the weakest. Cycles Research Investments LLC
Miami Herald
5 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Analyst expects gold to fall off the 'Wall of Worry'
Investors have been climbing the proverbial wall of worry to new record highs on the stock market this year, fearful with each step that the market is about to have a reversal. Meanwhile, gold's move to record highs has been far more impressive, and buyers seem to have no worry that the end of their rally is in sight. Stocks, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500, were up roughly 9.4% through August 8 – though they were up nearly 28% since the market bottom on April 9, the day when President Donald Trump paused tariffs just days after announcing them. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Meanwhile, gold has soared by 29.5% this year, through August 8, standing at roughly $3,460 an ounce. Its gain since the post-tariff announcement low is roughly 18%, but gold also didn't suffer as much as stocks in the meltdown that accompanied the tariff news. The three-year annualized average return on gold, as measured by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) , is 23.4%, well above its historic averages; from 1971 to 2024, the annualized return on the shiny stuff was just under 8%. Gold's rise hasn't been as a result of its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, because it normally takes a protracted time period with prices rising by more than 5% for gold to kick in that way. Instead, gold has been seen as an ideal hedge against geopolitical risk, the fighting in Ukraine and Gaza, the prospect of trade wars coming from the tariffs, and more. With no end in sight to those problems, plenty of investors have become gold bugs, looking to precious metals for protection and profits in times of uncertainty. More investing: Analyst says popular meme stock is worth less than zeroVeteran fund manager turns heads with Palantir stock price targetTop analyst sends Apple CEO bold message about its future And while buying gold now – or stocks, for that matter – can feel a bit like showing up late to the party, most industry watchers are suggesting that full-steam ahead is more likely than some reversion to the mean. While there is no shortage of caution and nervousness, there is no widespread call for recession even into 2025. Plenty of market observers saying that rate cuts (whenever they start) and the economic benefits of deregulation – the next big component of President Trump's economic plan – will offset the headwinds to keep things moving forward, albeit moderately. And plenty of gold analysts make a case for the gold rally to continue. "This gold bull market might be a little bit old in the tooth … it started in 2016," said Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Discovery Fund (MIDSX) , in an interview on the August 4 edition of "Money Life with Chuck Jaffe." "It's up over 300% in those nine years. That has not happened very often. The average bull market for gold is about 53 months, according to my research, and this is over 110, almost twice the normal length." Related: Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast Still, Winmill insisted gold is not overpriced: "If you adjust the former high, which was reached back in 1988, for inflation, we're actually below that high, which inflation-adjusted would be about $3,500 an ounce." "The basket of gold stocks represented by the Gold Bugs Index hit a high of 600 in August of 2011 when the gold price hit 1800," Winmill added, "and that index is well below that now, in the 400 range, about 430. So, on that score, we've got 50% to go in gold stocks." On the other side of that trade is veteran commodities and futures analyst Carley Garner, senior strategist at DeCarley Trading, who said in an interview from the August 5 edition of "Money Life" that it's a "sell-the-rallies market in both gold and silver, and the reason I think that is I believe the U.S. dollar has bottomed, and I think it will continue to work its way higher." Garner said that move in the dollar changes the landscape for a lot of commodities, but particularly the metals, and especially in times when gold "is probably the most volatile it's ever been." It's not the volatility that concerns Garner so much as the price, especially because, she said, "A lot of people are putting money in gold just because it's going up." "But I've lived through 2011," she added, "and I remember all of the same stories that are circulating in gold, all the reasons to buy it. 'The central banks are buying this and that. You can't trust the dollar,' so on and so forth. "All of those things were narratives in 2011, and gold topped, and then took a 50% haircut, and it took a decade to get back." Garner added that a 50% haircut is not just a possible scenario, but also "might actually be what could be around the corner." Garner noted that she isn't trying to predict anything, but rather is reading the probabilities. While her take on gold is sour, her take on the stock market isn't much better, with a probability of being much lower than current levels before it can trade significantly above them. She noted a trend line in the monthly chart of the S&P 500 futures, looking at high points, that "comes in right around 6,000 [on the S&P index]. So can we go above 6500? Sure. But the odds that we see higher than that here in the next handful of months, are pretty slim. A more likely scenario is we get continuation of the consolidation or the pullback. But the problem is, I don't see any good support on a monthly chart until we get into the low 5000s." In her personal portfolio, Garner noted that she is heavily overweight Treasury securities. She has used this strategy before to ride out rough patches until the market made her more optimistic. "Treasuries, regardless of where you look at the curve, are paying 4% to 5%," Garner said. "And if you hold expiration, you get that money.…So I'm just playing the odds here. And the odds are Treasuries are [a] much better buy than stocks." Related: Legendary Wall Street forecaster Bob Doll is having his best year The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
06-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold Set to Shine Again: ETFs to Tap the Momentum
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): ETF Research Reports iShares Gold Trust (IAU): ETF Research Reports abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL): ETF Research Reports SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
05-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
SLV, Precious Metals ETFs Surge on Weaker Dollar, Jobs
Precious metals ETFs, led by the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), continued their rise Monday, as Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report pressured the dollar and revived speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as soon as September. The U.S. dollar index slipped after the data, giving a boost to commodity prices across the board, particularly precious metals. Invest in Gold Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA While silver surged, gold has remained relatively rangebound, with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF struggling to sustain momentum. For more than three months, gold has swung back and forth as investors weigh tariff-related uncertainty, shifting inflation expectations and mixed economic data. GLD, which closely tracks the spot price of gold, reflects that choppiness. What's the correlation between precious metals and the U.S. dollar, why has silver has emerged as a standout performer and what does the future hold for silver and gold prices, along with the ETFs that track them? SLV vs. GLD: Why Silver Outshines Gold in 2025 Silver's recent outperformance compared to gold is being driven by a combination of factors that highlight its dual nature as both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity. While gold has been a strong performer, silver's unique market dynamics have given it an edge in recent months. Here are some key reasons for silver's stronger performance. Surging Industrial Demand A significant portion of silver's demand comes from industrial applications, unlike gold, which is primarily a monetary asset. There's been a surge in demand from high-growth sectors, particularly solar energy, where silver is a critical component in photovoltaic cells. Other applications in electric vehicles, 5G technology and electronics are also contributing to a persistent supply-demand imbalance. This industrial demand acts as a powerful tailwind for silver prices, especially when the global economy shows signs of resilience or recovery. The Gold-Silver Ratio The gold-silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, this ratio has fluctuated, but its long-term average is well below where it has been in recent years. Silver analysts often point out that the ratio is still elevated, suggesting that silver remains undervalued relative to gold. As this ratio narrows (meaning silver's price rises faster than gold's), it attracts investors who see it as a "catch-up trade." Monetary Policy Expectations Both gold and silver are considered safe-haven assets, but silver's price tends to be more volatile, acting as a "high-beta" version of gold. This means it can outperform gold during periods of bullish sentiment in the precious metals market. With markets pricing in potential future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and gold decreases, which traditionally benefits their prices. Silver, with its higher volatility, tends to accelerate faster than gold in these environments. Technical Breakouts From a technical analysis standpoint, silver has recently broken through key resistance levels that had capped its price for years. This technical breakout, combined with strong investor momentum, has signaled to traders that a new, more dynamic phase of the precious metals bull market may be underway, where silver typically shines. Precious Metals ETFs: Diversification Tools, Not Core Holdings SLV and GLD continue to play important roles as hedging instruments and tactical diversifiers in a portfolio, particularly in times of macro stress or currency volatility. But they're not core long-term holdings for most investors given their lack of income and high sensitivity to sentiment. What Could Go Wrong? Fed delays rate cuts, pushing real yields higher, which would be bad for precious metals Dollar rebounds on stronger economic data or geopolitical stability Energy transition investments slow down, curbing industrial silver demand In short, while silver has recently taken the lead in the precious metals space, it's a fast-moving and often volatile asset. For investors using the SLV or GLD ETFs, short- to medium-term opportunities exist, but timing and discipline are key. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in ETFs involves risks, and investors should carefully consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. At the time of publication, Kent Thune did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved
Forbes
26-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Trump Tariffs, Inflation, Inflation Hedges: The 3 Biggest Gold Stocks
tariffs inflation To explain why the three big NYSE gold stocks have had such a good 2025, start with tariffs, inflation and the price trend of the metal. That tariffs and inflation go together is hard to dispute despite what Trump and advisors want you to believe. All you have to do is look at the gold chart from the date that the tariffs were introduced. The yellow metal is the classic inflation hedge. Here's the daily for the SPDR Gold Shares which closely tracks gold bullion: SPDR Gold Shares daily price chart, 7 26 25. The price on February 1st, when Trump announced the tariffs, was $260. The shares now trades for $307.40 which amounts to an 18% gain in six months. Newmont Mining is the gold stock mostly likely to be added to a portfolio by Wall Street money managers. That's because it's big and highly liquid. The market cap is $68.36 billion. Average daily volume is 12.32 million shares. The Denver-based miner has operations in Nevada, in British Columbia, in Ghana, in Australia and in South America. This year's earnings per share are up 40.32%. Over the past three years they're up 25% and over the past five years down by 5.57%. The stock trades with a price-earnings ratio of 13.79, well below that of the S&P 500 at 38.79. Newmont pays a dividend of 1.63%. The Newmont Mining daily price chart is here: Newmont daily price chart, 7 26 25. The stock traded for $43 on February 1 and this week hit a new high of above $65 on some of the heaviest volume of the year. Note that the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average in mid-April and that the price remains above both in July. Agnico Eagle has a market cap of $64.30 billion. Average daily volume is 3.06 million. The company is headquartered in Toronto and maintains operations throughout Canada as well as in the US, Mexico and Australia. Earnings per share this year are up 64.11% and up over the past five years by 27.13%. Agnico Eagle's price-earnings ratio is 27.03. The debt-to-equity ratio is a low .06. Raymond James on June 30, 2025 resumed coverage of the stock with an 'outperform' rating and a price target of $130. The Agnico Eagle daily price chart looks like this: Agnico Eagle Mines daily price chart, 7 26 25. Shares could have been purchased on February 1 for $92.50. By mid-July the price had reached $130 and remains above both the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages. Wheaton Precious Metals is based in Vancouver and benefits from streaming royalties of gold (and silver) mines operating in North America, South America, Africa and Australia. The market cap is $43.10 billion. Average daily volume amounts to 1.85 million shares. This year's earnings per share are up 68.06% and up over the past five years by 43.30%. The company has no debt, long-term or otherwise, on its books. In April, BMO Capital Markets issued an 'outperform' rating for the stock with a price target of $129. Wheaton Precious Metals pays a .73% dividend. Here's the daily price chart for Wheaton: Wheaton Precious Metals daily price chart, 7 26 25. The price on February 1, when the tariffs were first announced, was near $63. The mid-July high was near $96. Wheaton Precious Metals continues to trade above the 50-day moving average and well above the 200-day moving average. Any investor who, on the first of February, thought 'Hmm, tariffs means higher inflation and that means major gold stocks will benefit, so I'll buy them' has done well. Stats courtesy of Charts courtesy of No artificial intelligence was used in the writing of this post. More analysis and commentary at
