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Crypto investors are changing the stock market. How to profit.
Crypto investors are changing the stock market. How to profit.

Mint

time23-07-2025

  • Business
  • Mint

Crypto investors are changing the stock market. How to profit.

Americans may vehemently disagree about politics, but they increasingly agree on this: They love U.S. stocks. And they're not alone. International investors increasingly want our stocks, too. That insight is often overshadowed by negative media coverage of President Donald Trump, and especially over his plans to use tariffs to reshape the global order. But recent earnings reports from Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers Group show that an intense desire to own U.S. stocks is emerging as one of the big themes of 2025. Rather than retreating to the safety of money-market funds, or watching the markets without trading, investors are increasingly embracing the volatility around Trump's policies. Schwab reported that strong transaction volumes drove a 60% increase in its second-quarter net income. Interactive Brokers reported a 170% quarterly increase from 2024 in overnight trading volume, helped by international clients who want U.S. market access—and who are able to trade 10,000 U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds, equity index futures and options, and bonds outside of regular U.S. trading hours. Should the U.S. dollar remain weak—which seems to be a goal of the Trump administration—global consumers will likely find that U.S. goods will be cheaper. The phenomenon should further boost U.S. stocks with international sales. The initial data points from two important brokerages is a positive for the U.S. stock market. It indicates strong demand for U.S. stocks, especially on declines. We raise this point as many pundits and strategists are advising clients to hedge stocks in anticipation that primary benchmarks, like the S&P 500 index, may soon back off record levels. Sure, there are always risks, especially when markets are at record highs, as they are now. But many investors seem to be taking a page from the playbook of crypto investors, who are increasingly active in the stock and options markets. The price of Bitcoin has enjoyed extraordinary ups and downs, yet Bitcoin investors tend to stay invested. When the crypto markets are at their worst, crypto investors remind each other to HODL, for 'Hold on for Dear Life." Stock investors, conversely, often panic and sell. The influence of crypto investing styles on stock investors is too little appreciated. The next few weeks of corporate earnings reports should make the world's burgeoning love affair with U.S. stocks more apparent. Earnings results have thus far been good, and more positive news should strengthen investors' bullishness. In addition, any good news from Trump's tariff negotiations is likely to be interpreted as even more reason to buy stocks. Investors can position for more stock market upside without sharply increasing their risk with call-option spreads. The strategy—buying a call and selling another with a higher strike price but the same expiration—increases in value if the associated securities increase in price. With the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY) at $628.86, investors can buy the September $635 call for $12.96 and sell the September $650 call for $5.89. If SPY is at $650 at expiration, the spread is worth a maximum profit of $7.93. The risk: That the ETF is below $635 at expiration, which would mean the trade fails. Aggressive investors could also sell a September $615 put option for $8.75. The put sale positions investors to buy SPY at $615. If the ETF is above $615 at expiration, investors keep the premium. The continued embrace of U.S. stocks anticipates a continuation of the status quo. Any diversions from the script could trigger stock volatility—but stay cool and HODL. Over time, you'll be glad you did. Email: editors@

US stock market future slips as Trump's 30% tariffs rattle global trade; Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq dip while Boeing jumps and Apple, Tesla slide ahead of earnings, CPI data
US stock market future slips as Trump's 30% tariffs rattle global trade; Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq dip while Boeing jumps and Apple, Tesla slide ahead of earnings, CPI data

Time of India

time14-07-2025

  • Business
  • Time of India

US stock market future slips as Trump's 30% tariffs rattle global trade; Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq dip while Boeing jumps and Apple, Tesla slide ahead of earnings, CPI data

How are U.S. stock futures performing today? Dow Jones futures dropped by roughly 130–158 points (–0.3% to –0.4%) dropped by roughly (–0.3% to –0.4%) S&P 500 futures slipped 15–20 points (–0.3% to –0.5%) slipped (–0.3% to –0.5%) Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 65–90 points (–0.3% to –0.4%) What's weighing on markets this morning? Live Events Which major indices and ETFs are slipping? SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) : –0.35% : –0.35% Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) : –0.20% : –0.20% SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): –0.65% Which stocks are making the biggest moves? Boeing (BA) jumped nearly 2% premarket after a positive update on aircraft safety measures. jumped nearly after a positive update on aircraft safety measures. Big Tech stocks were mixed: Apple (AAPL) edged lower Nvidia (NVDA) , Tesla (TSLA) , and Amazon (AMZN) posted modest gains stocks were mixed: What did Trump announce and how are markets reacting? How could these tariffs impact inflation and corporate profits? Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures : Currently trading near 44,437 , down approximately 162 points or -0.36% . The index saw earlier losses of over 200 points overnight before recovering some ground. : Currently trading near , down approximately or . The index saw earlier losses of over overnight before recovering some ground. S&P 500 Futures : Sitting around 6,278.5 , down 21.5 points or about -0.34% . The index has pulled back slightly after reaching recent record highs in previous weeks. : Sitting around , down or about . The index has pulled back slightly after reaching recent record highs in previous weeks. Nasdaq 100 Futures: Trading near 22,875.5, falling 83.5 points or about -0.36%. Tech-heavy Nasdaq futures continue to face pressure, edging closer to correction levels. Is there tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve? What's on the economic calendar this week? Bank earnings kick off this week with JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley all reporting between Monday and Wednesday. kick off this week with and all reporting between Monday and Wednesday. June CPI data drops Tuesday (July 15), offering a key read on whether inflation pressures are cooling. drops Tuesday (July 15), offering a key read on whether inflation pressures are cooling. Producer price index and retail sales numbers follow later in the week. What are analysts saying about the tariff impact? Morgan Stanley is warning that the tariff threats could start to bite hard in Q3 , squeezing corporate profit margins and pushing inflation higher. is warning that the tariff threats could start to bite hard in , squeezing corporate profit margins and pushing inflation higher. Goldman Sachs , meanwhile, remains cautiously optimistic, keeping a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 but flagging short-term volatility as a risk. , meanwhile, remains cautiously optimistic, keeping a bullish outlook on the but flagging short-term volatility as a risk. Interestingly, U.S. banks are expected to report a $26 billion windfall in Q2 from trading activity driven by global tariff volatility. What's next for earnings season and big banks? Could the EU respond with retaliation? Additional Futures Market Data (Morning Overview) Russell 2000 Futures : Down -0.30% , reflecting cautious sentiment in small-cap stocks. : Down , reflecting cautious sentiment in small-cap stocks. Crude Oil Futures (WTI) : Slightly up by +0.15% , hovering around $82.65 per barrel amid mixed supply-demand signals. : Slightly up by , hovering around amid mixed supply-demand signals. Gold Futures : Flat to mildly positive, currently near $2,373 per ounce , supported by investor hedging against inflation and economic uncertainty. : Flat to mildly positive, currently near , supported by investor hedging against inflation and economic uncertainty. 10-Year Treasury Yield Futures : Holding at approximately 4.20% , with bond markets waiting for fresh CPI and PPI data to guide interest rate expectations. : Holding at approximately , with bond markets waiting for fresh CPI and PPI data to guide interest rate expectations. VIX Futures (Volatility Index): Marginally higher at 14.9, showing a slight rise in market fear but still relatively low historically. What else is moving markets? US stock futures Index Current Price Change Dow Jones 44,437 –0.36% S&P 500 6,278.5 –0.34% Nasdaq 100 22,875.5 –0.36% What should investors watch now? Impact of Trump's 30% tariffs on global trade and inflation. Tensions between Trump and the Fed, especially around Powell's role. Corporate earnings from major banks, which may help stabilize investor sentiment. FAQs: (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel U.S. stock futures slid early Monday as investors reacted to President Donald Trump's announcement of new 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico, set to begin on August 1. The move adds to global trade tensions but markets rebounded slightly from their steep overnight lows as investors looked ahead to second-quarter earnings and upcoming inflation data for around 6:15 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 140 points, or 0.3%, after falling more than 200 points overnight. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.28%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.30%, reflecting broad concerns about the global trade outlook and its impact on U.S. the opening bell, major index futures were in the red:This weakness reflects renewed market jitters over potential economic fallout from escalating trade tensions and uncertainty around upcoming economic major catalyst? Fresh tariff threats. President Trump has announced plans for 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports starting August 1, stoking fears of retaliatory moves and higher input costs for U.S. Wall Street analysts largely see the move as part of Trump's negotiation playbook, the timing—on the eve of a packed earnings week—has added an extra layer of how the big three market ETFs are moving in early trading:Some individual names are still standing out despite the cautious sentiment:On Saturday, Trump declared that the United States would impose 30% tariffs on goods from both the EU and Mexico starting August 1. This sparked concern among investors and trading desks early Monday. However, optimism remains that these tariffs might be negotiated down as both EU and Mexican officials signaled willingness to continue discussions with the Trump administration through announcement follows a recent pattern where Trump uses tariff threats as leverage ahead of trade negotiations. The market reaction was swift, though losses eased as traders priced in the possibility of last-minute changes or new tariff threats are arriving just as investors await fresh inflation data this week. Economists and market strategists are watching closely to see how these duties—along with existing tariffs—are influencing consumer prices and corporate profit Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Financial Group, noted on CNBC's Fast Money that tariffs bring inflation, but who absorbs the cost depends on the company. 'Those with pricing power will pass it to consumers,' Boockvar said. 'Those without will see a hit to profits.'So far, inflationary effects have been uneven, and this week's data could help clarify how embedded price increases have addition to trade concerns, markets are watching the growing rift between the Trump administration and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On Sunday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told ABC News that Trump has the authority to fire Powell 'if there's cause.'Meanwhile, OMB Director Russell Vought accused Powell of 'gross mismanagement' and criticized a costly renovation of the Fed's headquarters, suggesting that Powell misled Congress about the project. Trump added fuel by saying Powell's resignation would be a 'good thing.'This political pressure on the Fed adds a layer of uncertainty as the central bank balances economic data, interest rates, and now, political are preparing for a flood of updates that could shape the market's next big move:All of this comes as Wall Street keeps a close eye on the, with growing speculation about a possible. However, July cuts remain off the table for trade concerns, investors are gearing up for second-quarter earnings, with results from major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America set to be released starting week will offer a clearer view into how corporations are handling inflation, rising costs, and slower global growth. Financial stocks in particular will be in focus, as investors assess loan growth, interest income, and credit the recent weakness—the S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week, while the Dow dropped 1%, both snapping multi-week winning streaks—strong earnings could provide a catalyst for to Bloomberg, EU officials are now considering retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. tariffs are not withdrawn. Sources suggest the EU may expand talks with other countries affected by previous Trump tariffs in a strategic August 1 set as the tariff start date, the next few weeks will be crucial. Markets will be watching diplomatic signals, trade negotiation updates, and possible EU moves of trade and inflation, Bitcoin surged again, hitting a record high of $119,300, marking its fourth all-time high in the past week. The rally comes just ahead of 'Crypto Week' starting July 14, during which lawmakers are expected to discuss regulatory proposals around digital assets, stablecoins, and blockchain Tesla CEO Elon Musk said shareholders will vote on whether the company should invest in his AI firm xAI, following reports that SpaceX plans to invest $2 billion into the startup behind the Grok stock market futures are pointing to a softer open as Wall Street reacts to fresh trade worries, upcoming inflation data, and the kickoff of earnings season. Traders are closely watching for more clarity as the week week's market focus is threefold:With so many headlines at once, volatility could remain elevated. But for now, investors appear to be cautiously betting that negotiations—both trade and political—may take a more moderate turn in the days futures dropped due to Trump's new 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico starting August 1, sparking trade are watching earnings reports, new inflation data, and tensions between Trump and the Fed Chair Powell.

The Best Way To Invest $10K Today, According to Steve Chen
The Best Way To Invest $10K Today, According to Steve Chen

Yahoo

time08-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

The Best Way To Invest $10K Today, According to Steve Chen

Steve Chen, personal coach and self-proclaimed 'millionaire teacher,' has over 2 million Instagram followers, and in a recent Instagram post, he shared an easy, effective way to invest $10,000 and turn it into over $1 million in retirement. Read Next: Find Out: Here's what you need to know about the best way to invest $10,000 today, according to Chen. Chen said there's an easy answer to this question. He said you should invest it in an S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) and leave it there. But how do you do that? Which fund? And how much will you have when it's time to retire? Here's how it all plays out. Check Out: Chen recommended going to Fidelity or Schwab and opening a brokerage account. You can do this at many different places, but Fidelity and Schwab in particular do not charge account fees or online commissions. If you choose to open an account elsewhere, make sure it does not charge fees either. To fund the account, you can electronically transfer the money from your checking or savings account into your new brokerage account. Chen recommended investing in an S&P 500 ETF. These are funds that mimic the S&P 500 stock index, which is made up of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. There are several S&P 500 index funds available. Chen mentioned the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG). These funds are all ETFs, which means that, like a mutual fund, the fund invests in a 'basket' of securities. In this case, it's most if not all of the stocks that make up the S&P 500. An ETF is different from a mutual fund in that it is traded like a stock so its price can fluctuate during the trading day. Mutual funds, on the other hand, are priced only at the end of the day. Additionally, mutual funds can be more costly than ETFs because most of them are managed by a portfolio manager who buys and sells investments according to the fund's objectives. Since index ETFs simply track an index, no management is necessary. Next, you just need to leave the money in the account. This seems like it should be the easiest part, but for some people, it's the hardest. You need to leave the money invested and reinvest all your earnings. In other words, just don't touch it. Chen estimated, based on the past performance of the S&P 500, that after 30 years, your brokerage account will be worth around $174,494.02. If you leave the money alone for 40 years, you'll have about $452,592.56. And after 50 years, your initial $10,000 investment should be worth around $1,173,908.53. He noted that compound interest is responsible for the growth in this hypothetical $10,000 investment. These estimates are based on the historical performance of the S&P 500, so obviously they cannot be guaranteed. Chen emphasized that risky investments like dogecoin are not the best place to invest your money because they are 'like gambling.' Investing $10,000 in an S&P index ETF when you're young and leaving it there is a smart way to get a jump start on a solid nest egg. Just ask Steve Chen. More From GOBankingRates 6 Popular SUVs That Aren't Worth the Cost -- and 6 Affordable Alternatives This article originally appeared on The Best Way To Invest $10K Today, According to Steve Chen Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Re-risking your portfolio: Investor John Davi's picks for the second half of 2025
Re-risking your portfolio: Investor John Davi's picks for the second half of 2025

CNBC

time04-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Re-risking your portfolio: Investor John Davi's picks for the second half of 2025

John Davi, founder and CEO of investment management company Astoria Portfolio Advisors, has one overriding piece of advice for investors heading into the second half of the year: "Re-risk your portfolio." The stock market has made a sharp turnaround from its early April lows, when fears over tariffs and their effect on inflation and the econony were at their highest. The S & P 500 was down 15% year-to-date on April 8, but is now up roughly 6.7% for the year as investors have regained confidence in the outlook for the economy , strong corporate profits and AI technology. But investors lately continue to seek out resilient pockets of the market due to uncertain trade policies and geopolitical tensions, however. Like many investors, Davi — whose firm manages $2.5 billion in total assets, including four ETFs — has gotten more constructive on U.S. stocks compared to the beginning of 2025. The recent run-up, particularly in the broader market outside tech, has given him greater conviction in companies beyond classic growth stocks. "Now we're at a point where earnings revision breadth has had this V-shape recovery. We have a weaker dollar. We've got policy uncertainty that's declined ... less tariffs. We have renewed optimism over AI," Davi told CNBC. In the past, a declining dollar "has been a tailwind for risk assets, globally ... rather than keep buying the 'Mag 7' stocks, there's so many other opportunities out there." "It's time to re-risk your portfolio," Davi said, at a time when markets are likely to rally further over the coming six months. ETFs to navigate the rest of 2025 Buying exchange-traded funds tied to the broader market are a generally safe bet for long-term investors seeking passive gains. But Davi's advice is to look beyond popular ETFs such as SPDR S & P 500 ETF and Vanguard S & P 500 ETF and look instead at opportunities in industrials, energy, real estate and fixed income. Davi named several ETFs that are strong picks heading into the latter half of the year, noting they're tax-efficient with low fees and a "safer and more conducive" means of accumulating wealth for individual investors. Equal-weighted ETFs are among his favorite during periods of high concentration, as they can offer strong returns and more diversification, particularly when smaller companies outperform. As an example, Davi spotlighted the Invesco S & P 500 Eql Wght Industrials ETF (RSPN) as a better way to gain exposure to industrials than the popular Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) . "There's all this risk still out there, right. But really, if you strip out the 'Mag 7,' the S & P 500 is not that expensive," he said. An equal-weighted ETF that's not skewed to the largest stocks today takes advantage of stocks outside technology, or mid-sized and smaller companies, "that are growing faster earnings than these tech stocks." One of Davi's top picks is the BNY Mellon Global Infrastructure Income ETF (BKGI) , which has jumped 30% in 2025 and 41% over the past year, against S & P 500 returns of nearly 7% and 15% over the same periods, according to FactSet. The fund's last 12 months' distribution yield is 4.17%, its net expense ratio is 0.55% and the average price-to-earnings ratio of its portfolio is 16.2 times trailing earnings, FactSet data shows. The ETF's top holdings are concentrated in utilities and energy, with Enel SpA , Hess Midstream , Orange SA and Dominion Energy among its top 10 holdings as of March 31. PPI SPY 1Y mountain Astoria Real Assets ETF (PPI) vs. SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) over the past year. Astoria Real Assets ETF (PPI) offers similar opportunities, Davi said. The fund has also outperformed, rallying 14% so far in 2025. With a net expense ratio of 0.78% and a trailing, 12-month yield of 1.36%, the fund' top holdings include SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust , Rolls-Royce Holdings , Simon Property Group , Shell and Constellation Energy . Industrial and utility stocks have raced ahead this year, gaining more than 13% and 8%, respectively, as investments have ooured into AI-related projects such as data center infrastructure and equipment. In fixed income, Davi pointed to the Schwab High Yield Bond ETF (SCYB) , JPMorgan BetaBuilders USD High Yield Corp Bd ETF (BBHY) , Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) and the SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Corporate Bd ETF (SPIB) as attractive. "Owning credit makes a lot of sense. There's value in holding high yield credit and corporate credit," he said.

US stock market futures today: Dow slips while S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records as Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla lead tech rally ahead of June jobs report
US stock market futures today: Dow slips while S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records as Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla lead tech rally ahead of June jobs report

Time of India

time03-07-2025

  • Business
  • Time of India

US stock market futures today: Dow slips while S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records as Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla lead tech rally ahead of June jobs report

S&P 500: Closed at 6,227.42, gaining 0.47%, marking a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite: Finished at 20,393.13, up 0.94%, also hitting a record. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Edged slightly lower to 44,484.42, down 0.02%. What can we expect from the June jobs report? ETF Performance (July 3, 2025 intraday snapshot) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) : Trading at $620.45 , up $2.73 (+0.44%). : Trading at , up (+0.44%). Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) : At $550.80 , up $3.83 (+0.70%). : At , up (+0.70%). SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA): At $444.71, down $0.20 (−0.045%). Live Events Could a weak jobs report speed up Fed interest rate cuts? Top Movers in Big Tech Apple (AAPL) : +2.2% : +2.2% Nvidia (NVDA) : +2.6% : +2.6% Tesla (TSLA): +5.0% ➤ Despite a 13.5% year-over-year drop in Q2 vehicle deliveries, Tesla stock surged on optimism about its upcoming AI and energy announcements. Bond Market & Rates 10-Year Treasury Yield: Holding at 4.29%, slightly higher as investors wait for labor data. How is President Trump influencing the markets right now? Key Market Drivers June Jobs Report (due July 5): Expectations point to 110,000 jobs added , down from 139,000 in May. (due July 5): Expectations point to , down from 139,000 in May. ADP Employment Data : Showed a 33,000 job loss in June, the first private sector decline since March 2023 — heightening expectations of a weak government jobs report. : Showed a in June, the first private sector decline since March 2023 — heightening expectations of a weak government jobs report. Federal Reserve Outlook : A soft jobs print could increase bets for interest rate cuts later this year, potentially boosting markets further. : A soft jobs print could increase bets for interest rate cuts later this year, potentially boosting markets further. Tech Rally: Big Tech continues to fuel the market rally, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors. Is the tech sector showing signs of recovery? What's the latest on Trump's tax and spending bill? Futures Overview – July 3, 2025 Dow Jones futures : Up around 0.1%, gaining about 45 points, trading near 44,821 : Up around 0.1%, gaining about 45 points, trading near S&P 500 futures : Up approximately 0.06%, gaining about 4 points, hovering around 6,278–6,279 : Up approximately 0.06%, gaining about 4 points, hovering around Nasdaq‑100 futures: Up nearly 0.08%, adding around 18–19 points, trading near 22,861–22,862 What's driving market futures today? New record highs: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs on Wednesday, lifting sentiment across the board. and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs on Wednesday, lifting sentiment across the board. Labor market data: Anticipation around the June jobs report is high, as it could signal slower hiring. Analysts expect fewer job gains compared to May and a three-year-high in unemployment. Global trade signals: Positive momentum is coming from a new US-Vietnam trade agreement and the recent removal of tech export restrictions to China, which helped boost semiconductor software stocks. Legislative developments: The House is preparing to vote on a large tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump, which includes major cuts and infrastructure spending. Holiday trading schedule Early close today : US stock markets will shut early at 1 p.m. ET due to the Independence Day holiday. : US stock markets will shut early at due to the Independence Day holiday. Closed Friday : Markets will remain fully closed tomorrow, July 4. : Markets will remain fully closed tomorrow, July 4. Fed policy in focus: Depending on the strength of the jobs data, the report could influence the timing and scale of potential Fed interest rate cuts later this year. Traders are currently pricing in increased odds of rate reductions if labor weakness persists. What does the holiday schedule look like for markets? FAQs: (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel US stock market futures stayed mostly flat on Thursday morning as investors waited for the June jobs report, a crucial signal for the Federal Reserve's next steps on interest rates. After the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Wednesday, futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F), Dow Jones (YM=F), and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) barely moved, reflecting cautious optimism on Wall market pause comes at a key moment as President Donald Trump pushes forward economic and trade decisions, and analysts keep a close watch on how labor data could shape expectations for Fed rate cuts in the coming eyes are on the June nonfarm payrolls data, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists are predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3%, up from 4.0% signs of labor market weakness could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates sooner, especially amid broader economic uncertainties. The data will also serve as a final marker before the market closes for the Independence Day the big question on investors' minds. With the labor market already showing subtle signs of cooling, another softer-than-expected jobs report could push the Fed toward easing rates more have already priced in the possibility of at least two rate cuts in the second half of 2025. If the jobs number disappoints, those expectations may rise further. The Fed's next policy meeting will be closely influenced by this jobs data, and any shift in their tone could move markets Trump's recent economic stance is shaping market sentiment in a big way. His ongoing criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and growing speculation that he may announce a replacement has increased talk of faster monetary the same time, Trump's successful trade deal with Vietnam has sparked optimism, with investors hopeful for more international agreements that could soften the blow of the July 9 tariff deadline. The possibility of reduced tariffs and friendlier trade terms could provide a cushion to the economy in the face of slowing job and it's directly tied to easing tensions between the US and China. The Biden-era export curbs on advanced tech have now been relaxed under President Trump, with restrictions on chip design software lifted. This move sent shares of Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) higher in premarket trading on welcomed the decision as a sign of improving US-China relations, particularly in the high-stakes semiconductor industry. This shift could help stabilize the tech sector, which has been under pressure from supply chain issues and trade another major development, Trump's massive tax and spending bill passed a key procedural vote in the House of Representatives on Thursday. House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed that the administration now has enough support to push the bill through by Friday, July 4—Trump's stated bill includes sweeping tax cuts and expanded spending in infrastructure and defense, and its approval would represent a major legislative win for the President heading into the second half of the year. Markets are watching closely, as the package could stimulate economic growth and influence Fed small moves reflect caution as investors await the release of theat, expected to show a gain of aboutand a rise in unemployment toBecause of the Fourth of July holiday, US stock markets will close early at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and remain closed all day Friday. Investors are using the shorter week to rebalance portfolios and brace for the next set of macroeconomic signals, starting with Thursday's jobs US stock market today is holding steady, but beneath the surface, there's a lot at stake. The June jobs report, Trump's economic policies, and global trade shifts are all converging to shape the next moves in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. With rate cuts, tariffs, and tax bills on the line, this is a moment of high anticipation—and traders are watching every number released at 8:30 a.m. ET and can move stocks if jobs data shows weakness, hinting at Fed rate are waiting for the June jobs report and watching Trump's economic and trade decisions before making moves.

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