Latest news with #STEO
Qatar Tribune
3 days ago
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Oil prices may fall below $60: EIA
Agencies New York The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected a substantial decline in oil prices due to an increase in global supply outpacing demand for petroleum products. In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA predicts the Brent crude oil spot price will average less than $60 per barrel in the last quarter of 2025, marking the first time prices have been this low since 2020. OPEC+, the coalition of oil-producing countries, announced plans to end its production cuts by September 2025, a year earlier than initially planned. This move is expected to drive most of the global oil production growth from OPEC+ countries, resulting in rapidly increasing inventories and a surplus in supply over demand. EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley noted, 'There's a lot of uncertainty in the petroleum market. In the past, we have seen significant drops in oil prices when inventories grow as quickly as we are expecting in the coming months.' Lower oil prices are anticipated to result in reduced US retail prices for gasoline and diesel, while also pulling down domestic oil production from its record highs in 2025. These changes in the energy market reflect broader economic dynamics and potential shifts in global trade policies, underpinning the complexity of forecasting in this volatile sector. The EIA highlights several uncertainties affecting forecasts, including geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and potential changes in OPEC+ production plans.
Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
EIA sees Brent oil prices falling to less than $60/bbl in Q4
Aug 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday forecast Brent crude oil spot prices will average less than $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, which would be the first quarter with average prices that low since 2020. It said in its August Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that it also expects Brent to average near $50 per barrel through 2026. The global benchmark settled at just above $66 on Tuesday. The statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy forecast a significant decline in oil prices as growth in the global supply of oil vastly surpasses growth in demand for petroleum products. "There's a lot of uncertainty in the petroleum market. In the past, we have seen significant drops in oil prices when inventories grow as quickly as we are expecting in the coming months," said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley. U.S. crude production will hit a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 due to increases in well productivity, though lower oil prices will prompt a fall in output in 2026, the EIA forecast. Lower oil prices will lead to lower U.S. retail prices for gasoline and diesel and will pull domestic oil production down from the record highs in 2025, the EIA predicted.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Data center demand to push US power use to record highs in 2025, '26, EIA says
By Scott DiSavino (Reuters) -Power-hungry data centers that provide computing power for artificial intelligence and crypto currency will push U.S. electricity consumption to record highs in 2025 and 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. The EIA projected power demand will rise to 4,193 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2025 and 4,283 billion kWh in 2026 from a record 4,097 billion kWh in 2024. In addition to data centers, American homes and businesses are expected to use more electricity for heat and transportation. The EIA forecast 2025 power sales will rise to 1,517 billion kWh for residential consumers, 1,474 billion kWh for commercial customers and 1,055 billion kWh for industrial customers. Those forecasts compare to all-time highs of 1,509 billion kWh for residential consumers in 2022, 1,434 billion kWh in 2024 for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh in 2000 for industrial customers. The EIA said natural gas' share of power generation would slide from 42% in 2024 to 40% in 2025 and 2026. Coal's share will hold at 16% in 2025, the same as 2024, before easing to 15% in 2026, as renewable output rises. The percentage of renewable generation will rise from 23% in 2024 to 25% in 2025 and 27% in 2026, while nuclear power's share will hold at 19% in 2025, the same as 2024, before easing to 18% in 2026, according to the outlook. EIA projected gas sales in 2025 would rise to 13.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for residential consumers, 9.7 bcfd for commercial customers and 23.5 bcfd for industrial customers, but fall to 35.9 bcfd for power generation. That compares with all-time highs of 14.3 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.6 bcfd in 2019 for commercial customers, 23.8 bcfd in 1973 for industrial customers and 36.9 bcfd in 2024 for power generation.
Business Recorder
07-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
US natgas output, demand to hit record highs
NEW YORK: US natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. EIA projected dry gas production will rise from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 104.9 bcfd in 2025 and 106.4 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.3 bcfd in 2025 before easing back to 90.7 bcfd in 2026. The May projections for 2025 were lower than EIA's 105.3 bcfd supply forecast in April, but higher than the agency's 91.2 bcfd demand forecast in April. The agency forecast average US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 14.6 bcfd in 2025 and 16.0 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024. As renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants, the agency projected US coal production would fall from 512.1 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 506.4 million tons in 2025, still the lowest since 1964, and 474.9 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1962. EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.775 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.827 billion metric tons in 2025 as oil, coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.742 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil, coal and gas use declines.
Yahoo
12-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US EIA predicts reduced global oil demand from trade tariffs and market uncertainties
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a decline in global oil demand growth through 2026, driven by recent trade policy developments and oil production changes. This forecast is detailed in EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which highlights significant uncertainties in energy supply, demand and prices. The STEO, based on current market conditions, notes that early April developments have notably impacted global oil markets. On 2 April, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a minimum 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with higher tariffs on some. In response, China imposed 34% tariffs on US imports on 4 April. Amid these tariff announcements, OPEC+ members declared on 3 April that certain countries would begin increasing oil production in May rather than July, as initially planned. These announcements led to a 12% drop in the Brent crude oil spot price to $68 per barrel (bbl) by 4 April. The EIA's forecasts, completed on 7 April, incorporate some of these recent market changes. However, the agency expects continued volatility as market participants react to further developments. The EIA projects ongoing growth in US and global oil production, with OPEC+ accelerating its previously announced production increases and the US exempting energy from its recent tariffs. The EIA expects global oil inventories to rise starting mid-2025, although market uncertainty could result in lower economic growth and reduced demand for petroleum products than previously forecast. This combination of increasing supply and decreasing demand leads the EIA to predict that the Brent crude oil price will average less than $70/bbl in 2025, dropping to just over $60/bbl in 2026. These prices are approximately 10% lower than the March STEO forecast, reflecting heightened uncertainty around global oil demand growth and potential additional supply from OPEC+ in the coming months. Other uncertainties include existing sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which could also impact oil prices. The EIA expects China's retaliatory tariffs on US goods to significantly affect propane as China is a major importer of US propane. While some propane previously exported to China may find new destinations, the EIA predicts reduced export demand will increase propane inventories on the US Gulf Coast, exerting downward pressure on the Mt. Belvieu propane spot price. US natural gas demand is also forecasted to grow by 4% in 2025, averaging just over 115 billion cubic feet per day. This growth is driven by an 18% increase in exports and a 9% rise in residential and commercial consumption for space heating. The increase in natural gas exports is primarily due to the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as new Plaquemines Phase 1 and Golden Pass LNG facilities commence operations. Despite China not currently importing US LNG, the EIA expects global LNG demand and flexible US LNG contract clauses to mitigate the impact of recent trade policy developments on US LNG exports. The EIA continues to forecast higher natural gas prices this year, with the Henry Hub price averaging around $4.30 per million British thermal units (MBtu) in 2025, up $2.10/MBtu from 2024. The agency expects the annual average price to rise to around $4.60/MMBtu in 2026. "US EIA predicts reduced global oil demand from trade tariffs and market uncertainties" was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Sign in to access your portfolio
