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Taliban regime deepens Pakistan's internal security woes – DW – 08/14/2025
Four years after the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, neighboring Pakistan is dealing with growing militant threats, strained relations with Kabul, and growing tensions along the border.
The Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021 sent shockwaves far beyond Afghanistan's borders, with Pakistan — already unsettled by extremist and militant groups — hit especially hard.
The Taliban victory emboldened a range of armed factions in Pakistan, including religious extremists such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the local affiliate of the so-called Islamic State, known as ISKP, and Baloch separatists.
"These groups have seized upon the shifting regional dynamics to intensify their insurgencies against the Pakistani state, posing a renewed threat to national security," said Safdar Sial, an expert at the Islamabad-based Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), a think tank monitoring terrorism trends in the country.
"On one hand, the TTP and ISKP have intensified their terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Baloch ethno-separatist groups, mainly the Baloch Liberation Army, have become increasingly sophisticated in their operational capabilities, targeting both Pakistani military personnel and Chinese nationals associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)," Sial told DW.
These developments point to a convergence of multiple threats with diverse agendas, all gaining momentum at the same time.
"With relative peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan has become the new hub of militant activity," including a growing threat of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur-led Pakistani militant group, a faction of the TTP that previously carried out its attacks only in Afghanistan, Sial added.
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Prior to 2020, the TTP was battered by a sustained Pakistani military campaign, particularly Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and successive US drone strikes that decapitated its leadership.
The group had fractured into splinter factions, many of which were pushed out of Pakistan and into the Afghan border provinces of Kunar, Nangarhar, and Khost.
As a result, large-scale terrorist incidents in Pakistan saw a sharp decline. Fatalities dropped from 2,451 across 1,717 attacks in 2013 to just 220 in 146 attacks in 2020, according to data from the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS).
However, the beginning of the US-Taliban peace talks in 2020 gave the TTP a renewed sense of purpose. Starting in July 2020, several splinter groups that had broken away since 2014 began to reconsolidate under the TTP umbrella. This reintegration also attracted support from al-Qaida affiliates and other jihadist entities operating in Pakistan.
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Pakistan experienced a surge in both the frequency and intensity of terrorist attacks following the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, according to PIPS data. By 2024, the level of violence had returned to levels similar to that of 2015 and earlier.
A UN report from July 2025 stated that the TTP has gained "logistical and operational support" from the Taliban authorities in Kabul.
Segments of Pakistan's political and civilian leadership initially welcomed the Taliban's return to power, viewing it as a potential strategic ally in the region.
However, this optimism quickly turned into concern over the Afghan Taliban's close ties with the TTP.
"The inability of the Taliban administration in Kabul to take concrete action against the TTP has significantly strained Pakistan-Afghanistan relations over the past four years," Tahir Khan, an Islamabad-based analyst, told DW.
In response, Pakistan has adopted increasingly forceful measures to pressure the Taliban administration into action, including cross-border airstrikes targeting suspected TTP sanctuaries in eastern Afghanistan. But this strategy could also have unintended consequences, said Hazrat Ali, a Kabul-based researcher.
"Under pressure from Islamabad, a crackdown on the TTP could risk fracturing the Taliban's ranks and may even drive some TTP elements toward ISKP, a key rival of the Taliban," Ali told DW.
Since September 2023, the Pakistani government has also expelled over 1 million Afghan refugees and tightened trade restrictions on Afghanistan, a landlocked country heavily dependent on Pakistani ports.
These moves have posed new obstacles to diplomatic efforts to reset the relationship.
Recently, however, there have been fresh diplomatic overtures signaling a tentative thaw in bilateral relations, including high-level visits by Pakistani officials such as Deputy Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in April and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi in July.
Analyst Khan also noted that Pakistan has recently facilitated trade by reducing tariffs and easing border control for Afghans.
"Nonetheless, unless the issue of the TTP is effectively addressed, meaningful improvement in bilateral ties will remain elusive," he added.
Unlike 1996, when Pakistan swiftly recognized the previous iteration of the Taliban regime, the current context is far more complex. Islamabad remains hesitant even though Russia's recently became the first and so far the only country to formally recognize the Taliban government.
"Recognition of the Taliban remains a distant prospect," Khan said.
"Islamabad has not even upgraded its diplomatic engagement with Kabul and continues to withhold the elevation of its charge d'affaires to the level of full ambassador, largely due to persistent concerns over the TTP."
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