Latest news with #SafrasMercado
South China Morning Post
5 days ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China's early South American soybean buys squeeze US out of peak export window
China has moved early to lock in soybean supplies from Brazil for September and October, sidelining US exporters from what is traditionally their most lucrative selling period. Advertisement The shift underscores Beijing's growing trade reliance on South America and comes amid renewed political and commercial tensions with Washington. According to market analysis from Brazil's Safras & Mercado, traders reported Chinese purchases of roughly 8 million tonnes of soybeans for September and 4 million tonnes for October, about half of the country's projected demand for the two months. All volumes are sourced from South America, with Brazil capturing the lion's share. The move effectively shortens the US 'window' for soybean shipments to China, which typically runs from September to January before the Brazilian harvest arrives. Last year, China imported 105 million tonnes of soybeans, 22.13 million of them from the US, illustrating how pivotal this early-season slot has been for American farmers. The decision to buy more soybeans from South America comes as Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hover near five-year lows, with reduced Chinese buying expected to keep prices under pressure. Advertisement Neither the Chinese embassy in Washington nor the one in Brasília immediately responded to a request for comment.
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Coffee Prices Rise on Frost Threats in Brazil
September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is up +3.10 (+1.06%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is up +67 (+2.10%). Coffee prices today erased early losses and moved higher on concern about frost in Brazil. Meteorologist Climatempo forecasted today that a cold front will advance through Brazil's coffee-growing regions later this week, potentially bringing crop-damaging frost to the area. More News from Barchart Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Slam Coffee Prices Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Hammer Prices Cocoa Prices Rally as the Pace of Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Slows Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Coffee prices today initially moved lower, with arabica posting a 1-week low, Sep robusta posting a contract low, and nearest-futures (N25) robusta posting a 1.25-year low. Coffee harvest pressures from Brazil are weighing on coffee prices. Last Friday, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 77% complete as of July 16, ahead of the comparable level of 74% last year and the 5-year average of 69%. The breakdown showed that 93% of the robusta harvest and 67% of the arabica harvest were complete as of July 9. In related news, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced today that its harvest among its members was 59% complete as of July 18. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. Robusta coffee prices are also under pressure from an increase in ICE-monitored inventories as robusta coffee inventories today rose to an 11.5-month high of 6,401 lots. Conversely, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3-month low of 811,024 bags on Monday. An excessive short position by funds in robusta coffee could exacerbate any short-covering rally in robusta coffee futures. ICE Futures Europe reported last Friday that funds boosted their net-short positions in ICE robusta futures by 1,163 to 1,294 short positions in the week ended July 15, the most in two years. Excessive dryness in Brazil is a supportive factor for coffee prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended July 19. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are positive for prices after Cecafe reported last Wednesday that Brazil's total Jun green coffee exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million bags and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 bags. Arabica coffee prices received support from President Trump's recent announcement that he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, effective August 1. That threat caused concern that coffee supplies could be disrupted from Brazil, the world's largest producer of arabica coffee. Coffee prices have retreated over the past two months on the outlook for abundant coffee supplies. On June 25, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported on July 7 that Vietnam's Jan-Jun 2025 coffee exports were up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT. The USDA's biannual report, released on June 25, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Hammer Prices
September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is down -9.25 (-3.05%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is down -107 (-3.20%). Coffee prices today are sharply lower due to coffee harvest pressures from Brazil. Last Friday, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 77% complete as of July 16, ahead of the comparable level of 74% last year and the 5-year average of 69%. The breakdown showed that 93% of the robusta harvest and 67% of the arabica harvest were complete as of July 9. In related news, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced on Tuesday that its harvest among members was 49.3% complete as of July 11. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. More News from Barchart What is Watson Watching in the Grains Sector this Week? Soybean Meal Prices Are Rebounding. How Much Higher Can They Go? Cocoa Prices Rally as the Pace of Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Slows Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Coffee prices are also under pressure from an increase in ICE-monitored inventories after robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 10.75-month high of 6,243 lots today. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 5.5-month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 but have since backed off to a 2.5-month low of 814,055 bags as of last Friday. Excessive dryness in Brazil is a supportive factor for coffee prices. Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended July 19. An excessive short position by funds in robusta coffee could exacerbate any short-covering rally in robusta coffee futures. ICE Futures Europe reported last Friday that funds boosted their net-short positions in ICE robusta futures by 1,163 to 1,294 short positions in the week ended July 15, the most in two years. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are positive for prices after Cecafe reported on Wednesday that Brazil's total Jun green coffee exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million bags and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 bags. Arabica coffee prices received support from President Trump's recent announcement that he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, effective August 1. That threat caused concern that coffee supplies could be disrupted from Brazil, the world's largest producer of arabica coffee. Coffee prices have retreated over the past two months on the outlook for abundant coffee supplies. On June 25, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported on July 7 that Vietnam's Jan-Jun 2025 coffee exports were up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT. The USDA's biannual report, released on June 25, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Coffee Prices
September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is down -5.10 (-1.66%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is down -4 (-0.12%). Coffee prices today gave up an early advance and turned lower as the pace of the Brazil coffee harvest accelerated. Safras & Mercado reported today that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 77% complete as of July 16, ahead of the comparable level of 74% last year and the 5-year average of 69%. The breakdown showed that 93% of the robusta harvest and 67% of the arabica harvest were complete as of July 9. In related news, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced on Tuesday that its harvest among members was 49.3% complete as of July 11. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. More News from Barchart Coffee Prices Retreat Due to a Stronger Dollar Cocoa Prices Finish Sharply Lower as Global Cocoa Demand Craters Dollar Strength Sparks Long Liquidation Pressures in Coffee Futures Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Coffee prices today initially moved higher, with arabica posting a 3-week high on carryover support from Monday, due to signs of excessive dryness in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended July 12. Coffee prices are under pressure from an increase in ICE-monitored inventories after robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 10-month high of 5,995 lots today. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 5.25-month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 but have since backed off to 819,061 bags as of Thursday. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are positive for prices after Cecafe on Wednesday reported that Brazil's total Jun green coffee exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million bags and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 bags. Arabica coffee prices have support from President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, effective August 1. That threat caused concern that coffee supplies could be disrupted from Brazil, the world's largest producer of arabica coffee. Coffee prices have retreated over the past two months on the outlook for abundant coffee supplies. On June 25, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported on July 7 that Vietnam's Jan-Jun 2025 coffee exports were up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT. The USDA's biannual report, released on June 25, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Globe and Mail
10-06-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Coffee Prices Rebound on Strength in the Brazilian Real
July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is up +3.20 (+0.89%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) is up +70 (+1.58%). Coffee prices today shook off early losses and moved higher on strength in the Brazilian real. The real (^USDBRL) climbed to an 8-month high against the dollar today, discouraging export selling from Brazil's coffee producers. Coffee prices today initially moved lower after above-normal rainfall in Brazil eased dryness concerns. Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais, received 23.4 mm of rain the week ended June 7, 207% of the historical average for this time of year. Coffee harvest pressures in Brazil are limiting the upside in coffee prices after Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee harvest was 28% complete as of June 4, just above the five-year average of 27% for the same time of year. Coffee prices have been under pressure over the five weeks, with arabica coffee falling to a 2-month low last Tuesday and robusta dropping to a 7-1/4 month low due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies. On May 19, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. An increase in ICE coffee inventories is undercutting coffee prices. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to an 8-3/4 month of 5,438 lots on May 30. Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/4 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27. On May 9, the USDA forecasted that 2025/26 coffee production in Honduras, Central America's largest coffee producer, would climb +5.1% y/y to 5.8 million bags. Also, consulting firm Safras & Mercado raised its Brazil 2025/26 coffee production estimate to 65.51 million bags from an earlier estimate of 62.45 million bags. In addition, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, raised its Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate to 55.7 million bags from a January estimate of 51.81 million bags. Demand concerns are bearish for coffee prices. Several global commodity importers, including Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International, recently said the US's baseline 10% tariff on imports would raise prices and further pressure sales volumes. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are bullish for prices. On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil's April green coffee exports fell -28% y/y to 3.05 million bags, and Jan-Apr coffee exports fell -15.5% y/y to 13.186 million bags. Robusta coffee has support from reduced robusta production. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Last Tuesday, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2025 Vietnam's Jan-May coffee exports are down -1.8% y/y to 813,000 MT. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags. Conversely, the USDA's FAS on May 19 projected that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee crop would climb +7% y/y to a 4-year high of 30 million bags. The USDA's biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.0% y/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24. Separately, the USDA's FAS on November 22 projected Brazil's 2024/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. The USDA's FAS projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
