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Economic Times
04-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Near-term strategy for stocks with high futures rollover
As the Nifty extended its losing streak to the fifth week, traders are treading cautiously with stock-specific action expected to take centre stage. Futures rollovers offer critical clues to near-term positioning with select stock contracts seeing higher-than-usual rollovers into the August series. Here's a look at key stocks showing elevated rollover activity, along with the technical outlook according to analysts. ADVERTISEMENT BULLISH BETS Kaynes Technology India CMP: Rs 6,363 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 14.9% Change in Price (August Series): 3.1% The stock has been witnessing consistent long buildup for the past two trading sessions, signalling sustained buying interest following better-than expected first quarter results. Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst, Samco Securities, said derivatives data bolsters the bullish outlook, with noticeable unwinding of call positions at the Rs 6,200–Rs 6,300 strikes, while put writers have aggressively added positions near these levels. 'A simultaneous shift in call writing to higher strikes indicates growing trader confidence in the stock's upward trajectory,' he said. ADVERTISEMENT Traders may look to initiate fresh long positions around Rs 6,300–Rs 6,371, targeting an upside of Rs 7,220, he said. The bullish thesis remains intact as long as the stock stays above Rs 5,820. ADVERTISEMENT Jindal Stainless CMP: Rs 704.3 Change in Open Interest (August Series): -0.1% Change in Price (August Series): 1.5% Vipin Kumar, assistant vice president of derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital Market, said JSL has formed a double bottom formation near the support zone of its previous breakout levels, which also coincides with its 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages (DEMA). ADVERTISEMENT 'It has also breached the past couple of weeks' congestion zone on the higher side on a closing basis,' Kumar noted. The company is set to announce its first quarter results this week. Kumar recommends buying August futures in Rs 690–Rs 700 range, for target of Rs 735– Rs 760, with a stop loss at Rs 667. Jio Financial Services CMP: Rs 329.85 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 0.1% Change in Price (August Series): 0.2% ADVERTISEMENT Last week, the stock took support near its 50-day EMA and then witnessed a sharp rebound, said Sudeep Shah, vice-president and head of technical and derivative Research, SBI Securities. 'Currently, all the moving averages and momentum indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum,' he added. Shah recommends accumulating the stock in the Rs 327–Rs 330 zone, with a stop loss at Rs 314. On the upside, it is likely to test Rs 350, followed by Rs 360 in the short term. BEARISH BETS Indraprastha Gas CMP: Rs 201.8 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 9.1% Change in Price (August Series): -1.6% Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said the stock witnessed a short buildup in open interest alongside a price decline, signalling rising bearish bets. 'Additionally, short rollovers were observed, further reinforcing the view of continued weakness in the stock,' Taparia said. He suggests selling IGL August futures for a target of Rs 192, with a stop loss at Rs 207. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories CMP: Rs 1,221.4 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 4.9% Change in Price (August Series): -3.85% Stock has moved from a phase of long unwinding in previous session to a fresh short build-up, indicating shift in sentiment, said Dhameja. 'Stock structure continues to weaken,' he said. 'Breakdown is validated by spike in volumes, surpassing average, confirming strength behind bearish move.' Traders may initiate short positions around Rs 1,220 and consider adding on pullbacks toward Rs 1,232, targeting Rs 1,145. The stop loss is placed at Rs 1,275. Exide Industries CMP: Rs 379 Change in Open Interest (August Series): -0.5% Change in Price (August Series): -1.4% Kumar said Exide is trading below both its long-term and short-term moving averages. 'At the current juncture, it is trading on the verge of a fresh breakdown from its price and trendline support,' he said. 'Going ahead, it is likely to continue its underperformance in the near term till it is trading below Rs 400 and might test Rs 362–Rs 350 levels.' Kumar suggests selling August futures in the Rs 382– Rs 385 range, with a stop loss at Rs 400. Federal Bank CMP: Rs 195.61 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 7.7% Change in Price (August Series): -3.4% Taparia said the stock saw a significant rise in open interest— nearly 8%— alongside a 5% price drop last week, indicating strong short build-up. 'The overall price action also reflects persistent weakness, suggesting that the downward trend may continue in the near term,' he said. Traders may consider selling August futures for a target of Rs 187, with a stop loss at Rs 200. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
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Business Standard
13-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Street Signs: Markets turn skittish, exorcising the ghost of the past, more
State Bank of India (SBI) is set to raise ₹25,000 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) - the largest QIP ever in the domestic market Samie Modak Nifty on thin ice: Tariff chill sends bulls sliding The Nifty 50 has slid 2 per cent in a fortnight and looks poised to stay edgy as tariff headlines collide with a subdued start to the earnings season. At the last close of 25,150, the index slipped below its 20-day exponential moving average — a 'negative signal that favours further weakness if it holds', observes Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst at Samco Securities. Weekly charts, a bearish close, and thinning market breadth echo the gloom, he adds. 'The 25,300 floor has flipped to resistance; a decisive break of Friday's 25,129
Economic Times
25-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
HDB Financial IPO: Can HDFC Bank's midas touch break the mega IPO curse?
The Mega IPO Curse Strikes Deep Live Events HDFC Bank's Golden Child Steps Into the Arena Brokerage Houses Rally Behind the IPO The Liquidity Squeeze Test (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel As the Rs 12,500 crore IPO of HDB Financial Services hits Dalal Street today, investors are wondering whether the charm and pedigree of HDFC Bank will be enough to break the mega IPO jinx that has haunted primary market investors in the last 2 IPOs, those raising ₹10,000 crore or more, may dazzle at the starting line, but they've left a trail of investor heartbreak behind. According to Samco Securities, the last eight such offerings have returned an average negative 9% within a month of listing. Wait six months, and the bleeding worsens to -20%. A year in, the damage deepens to -25%.Paytm, once the poster child of India's fintech revolution, has obliterated 65% of investor wealth within 12 months of its ₹18,300 crore listing in November 2021. Life Insurance Corporation, despite its government backing and ₹21,008 crore raise in May 2022, has delivered a punishing 35% loss to shareholders who held for a more recent entrants haven't escaped the curse. Hyundai Motor's ₹27,870 crore IPO in October 2024, the largest in Indian history, has already slipped 7% in six months, while Swiggy's ₹11,327 crore listing showed early promise with 17% gains in the first month, only to surrender 30% over six months."In the last 25 years, India's mega-IPOs have often arrived at moments of peak market optimism, but with surprisingly poor follow-through," notes Samco Securities. "The pattern reflects a liquidity vacuum—massive IPOs absorb market capital, leaving little dry powder for secondary buying."Only SBI Cards stands as a rare exception, delivering 50% returns after 12 months from its ₹10,355 crore March 2020 listing, a performance achieved during an unprecedented pandemic-driven market Financial Services comes armed with impressive credentials that distinguish it from previous mega IPO failures. As the 7th largest diversified retail-focused NBFC in India with a gross loan book of ₹902.2 billion as of March 2024, the company benefits from the unassailable brand power of HDFC Bank, India's second-largest private IPO, priced between ₹700-₹740 per share, implies a valuation of approximately ₹61,000 crore at the upper end. The offering comprises ₹2,500 crore of fresh capital and ₹10,000 crore through an offer for sale, which will reduce HDFC Bank's stake from 94.32% to 74.19%.Operating across three verticals—Enterprise Lending, Asset Finance, and Consumer Finance—HDB Financial leverages its parent's vast customer franchise while maintaining a AAA credit rating that provides access to low-cost many mega IPOs that face mixed reception, HDB Financial has garnered unanimous support from major brokerages, though with measured expectations."The company is backed by strong parentage, brand, governance, risk management and a high credit rating," states SBI Securities, recommending subscription while expecting modest 5-10% listing gains. "It is one of the largest NBFCs catering to the 2nd largest customer franchise."Anand Rathi emphasizes the differentiation factor: "Backed by the strong parentage of HDFC Bank, India's second-largest private bank by total assets, the company offers a well-diversified product portfolio with robust granularity, scale, and sound lending quality. We consider the IPO fairly valued."Centrum highlights the valuation attractiveness, noting the issue trades at "less than 3x FY26E P/ABV, which is at a steep discount to larger peers such as Bajaj Finance and Chola, discounting relatively lower return ratios and growth."However, Bajaj Broking injects a note of caution: "Near-term asset quality and margin pressures pose risks. Investors with a medium- to long-term outlook may find the issue attractive, provided the company sustains growth while improving operating efficiency and asset quality post-listing.""History suggests caution: while size attracts headlines, it often signals market saturation rather than sustainable opportunity," warns Samco Securities. "The HDB IPO may well test whether this liquidity-squeeze effect remains alive."The fundamental challenge remains unchanged. Massive IPOs create their own headwinds by absorbing enormous amounts of market liquidity, leaving insufficient capital for sustained secondary market buying. Previous mega listings from Reliance Power in 2008 to LIC in 2022 have all succumbed to this HDB Financial's timing and backing could prove different. With HDFC Bank's distribution muscle, proven risk management capabilities, and India's ongoing credit growth story providing tailwinds, the company enters the market with advantages its predecessors lacked.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
25-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
HDB Financial IPO: Can HDFC Bank's midas touch break the mega IPO curse?
HDB Financial Services' ₹12,500 crore IPO enters the market, facing the historical challenge of mega IPOs underperforming. Despite backing from HDFC Bank and positive brokerage sentiment, concerns linger about liquidity absorption and potential asset quality pressures. The IPO, priced at ₹700-₹740, aims to reduce HDFC Bank's stake. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Mega IPO Curse Strikes Deep Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads HDFC Bank's Golden Child Steps Into the Arena Brokerage Houses Rally Behind the IPO Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Liquidity Squeeze Test As the Rs 12,500 crore IPO of HDB Financial Services hits Dalal Street today, investors are wondering whether the charm and pedigree of HDFC Bank will be enough to break the mega IPO jinx that has haunted primary market investors in the last 2 IPOs, those raising ₹10,000 crore or more, may dazzle at the starting line, but they've left a trail of investor heartbreak behind. According to Samco Securities, the last eight such offerings have returned an average negative 9% within a month of listing. Wait six months, and the bleeding worsens to -20%. A year in, the damage deepens to -25%.Paytm, once the poster child of India's fintech revolution, has obliterated 65% of investor wealth within 12 months of its ₹18,300 crore listing in November 2021. Life Insurance Corporation, despite its government backing and ₹21,008 crore raise in May 2022, has delivered a punishing 35% loss to shareholders who held for a more recent entrants haven't escaped the curse. Hyundai Motor's ₹27,870 crore IPO in October 2024, the largest in Indian history, has already slipped 7% in six months, while Swiggy's ₹11,327 crore listing showed early promise with 17% gains in the first month, only to surrender 30% over six months."In the last 25 years, India's mega-IPOs have often arrived at moments of peak market optimism, but with surprisingly poor follow-through," notes Samco Securities. "The pattern reflects a liquidity vacuum—massive IPOs absorb market capital, leaving little dry powder for secondary buying."Only SBI Cards stands as a rare exception, delivering 50% returns after 12 months from its ₹10,355 crore March 2020 listing, a performance achieved during an unprecedented pandemic-driven market Financial Services comes armed with impressive credentials that distinguish it from previous mega IPO failures. As the 7th largest diversified retail-focused NBFC in India with a gross loan book of ₹902.2 billion as of March 2024, the company benefits from the unassailable brand power of HDFC Bank, India's second-largest private IPO, priced between ₹700-₹740 per share, implies a valuation of approximately ₹61,000 crore at the upper end. The offering comprises ₹2,500 crore of fresh capital and ₹10,000 crore through an offer for sale, which will reduce HDFC Bank's stake from 94.32% to 74.19%.Operating across three verticals—Enterprise Lending, Asset Finance, and Consumer Finance—HDB Financial leverages its parent's vast customer franchise while maintaining a AAA credit rating that provides access to low-cost many mega IPOs that face mixed reception, HDB Financial has garnered unanimous support from major brokerages, though with measured expectations."The company is backed by strong parentage, brand, governance, risk management and a high credit rating," states SBI Securities, recommending subscription while expecting modest 5-10% listing gains. "It is one of the largest NBFCs catering to the 2nd largest customer franchise."Anand Rathi emphasizes the differentiation factor: "Backed by the strong parentage of HDFC Bank, India's second-largest private bank by total assets, the company offers a well-diversified product portfolio with robust granularity, scale, and sound lending quality. We consider the IPO fairly valued."Centrum highlights the valuation attractiveness, noting the issue trades at "less than 3x FY26E P/ABV, which is at a steep discount to larger peers such as Bajaj Finance and Chola, discounting relatively lower return ratios and growth."However, Bajaj Broking injects a note of caution: "Near-term asset quality and margin pressures pose risks. Investors with a medium- to long-term outlook may find the issue attractive, provided the company sustains growth while improving operating efficiency and asset quality post-listing.""History suggests caution: while size attracts headlines, it often signals market saturation rather than sustainable opportunity," warns Samco Securities. "The HDB IPO may well test whether this liquidity-squeeze effect remains alive."The fundamental challenge remains unchanged. Massive IPOs create their own headwinds by absorbing enormous amounts of market liquidity, leaving insufficient capital for sustained secondary market buying. Previous mega listings from Reliance Power in 2008 to LIC in 2022 have all succumbed to this HDB Financial's timing and backing could prove different. With HDFC Bank's distribution muscle, proven risk management capabilities, and India's ongoing credit growth story providing tailwinds, the company enters the market with advantages its predecessors lacked.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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Business Standard
22-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Street Signs: Nifty's new conquest, SME bankers under regulatory scalpel
Samie Modak Khushboo Tiwari Mumbai Listen to This Article The 25K wall falls:Nifty's new conquest The Nifty 50 index broke new ground, closing 'decisively' above the 25,000 mark for the first time since September 2024. Market observers interpret this as a bullish signal, potentially paving the way for the index to reach record highs. Devarsh Vakil, head of prime research at HDFC Securities, noted that Nifty's breakout above 25,000 marks a positive short term trend. Immediate resistance is at 25,222, while support has shifted to 24,900. Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives research analyst at Samco Securities, added that a firm close above 25,250 could boost upward momentum, targeting 25,500. Unless the
