Latest news with #SameerSamana
CNA
a day ago
- Business
- CNA
Stocks fall, oil prices jump after Israel attacks Iran
World stock markets fell on Friday, and oil prices surged, as Israel launched military strikes on Iran, sparking inflows into safe havens such as gold and the dollar. An escalation in the Middle East - a major oil-producing region - adds uncertainty to financial markets at a time of heightened pressure on the global economy from U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies. Early on Friday, Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear programme, saying there was still time for the country to prevent further conflict with Israel. Brent crude oil prices were last up 5.5 per cent at $73.22 per barrel, having jumped as much as 14 per cent during Asian trading hours. They were set for their biggest one-day jump since 2022, when energy costs spiked after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. oil futures rose 7.3 per cent to around $73. Gold, a safe haven in times of global uncertainty, rose 1.1 per cent to $3,422 per ounce, bringing it close to the record high of $3,500.05 from April. The rush to safety was matched by a dash out of risk assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 0.34 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4 per cent. European shares dropped almost 1 per cent, and in Asia, major bourses in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong fell over 1 per cent each. "The re-emergence of major conflict in the Middle East should raise geopolitical stress, including sharply higher oil prices," Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in an email. Samana added, though, that the conflict should represent a buying opportunity for long-term investors, including in U.S. large-cap stocks and commodities. Israel said it had struck Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories and killed a swathe of military commanders in what could be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Trump suggested Iran had brought the attack on itself by resisting U.S. demands in talks to restrict its nuclear programme, and urged it to make a deal, "with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal." Washington said it had no part in the operation, however. The developments mean another major geopolitical risk has become a reality at a time when investors are wrestling with shifts in U.S. economic and trade policies. "The geopolitical escalation adds another layer of uncertainty to already fragile sentiment," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, adding that crude oil and safe-haven assets will continue rising if tensions continue to intensify. The Israeli shekel fell almost 1.4 per cent, and long-dated dollar bonds for Israel, Egypt and Pakistan slipped. TWO-WAY PULL FOR BONDS U.S. Treasuries initially benefited from the rush for safer assets, but as the day wore on, investors' focus turned to the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were last up 6.7 basis points at 4.42 per cent, having touched a one-month low of 4.31 per cent. Bond yields move inversely to prices. "This is a flight-to-safety event. But markets are struggling a bit, and in the fixed income space you have an oil-price shock that is inflationary, and so you should see markets expecting an even more hawkish Fed," said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities. "On the other hand, you have the flight to safety, which should push bond yields lower." Germany's 10-year bond yield touched its lowest level since early March at around 2.42 per cent, before also inching higher. Some traders were attracted to the dollar as a haven, with the dollar index up 0.35 per cent to 98.03, retracing most of Thursday's sizeable decline. The Swiss franc briefly touched its strongest level against the dollar since April 21, before trading 0.12 per cent lower at around 0.811 per dollar. Another safe haven, the Japanese yen, fell 0.34 per cent to 143.95 per dollar, giving up earlier gains of 0.3 per cent. The euro was down 0.2 per cent at $1.15, after rising on Thursday to the highest since October 2021.
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold ETFs Surge on Safe-Haven Demand: Is a Pullback Coming?
Gold had a stellar start in 2025, making Q1 the metal's second-best quarter after Q3 in 1986. Gold has long been viewed as a safe-haven investment, especially during times of political and economic turmoil. As fears of a global trade war escalate and concerns mount over a likely U.S. recession, gold prices have surged, reaching new heights. Gold has already hit over a dozen record highs this year. Gold bullion exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) advanced 28.6% so far this year (as of April 21, 2025) and surged 46.4% over the past one year. Some market analysts believe that gold may be nearing its top. 'We're probably close to maximum optimism on gold at this point,' said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He cautions that investors chasing gold now may regret it later, as quoted on CNBC. The GLD ETF's relative strength index (14) stands at 77.317, signaling its overbought. The party may be over anytime soon. President Donald Trump recently imposed steep tariffs on imports, targeting specific countries. While the implementation was delayed by 90 days, the trade war between the U.S. and China continues to escalate. So far, the United States enacted a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, prompting China to retaliate with a 125% tariff on American goods. While some analysts see gold nearing its peak, others believe there's more room for growth. 'Even though gold prices are at an all-time high, the reality is that in the next couple of years it could accelerate,' said Jordan Roy-Byrne, founder of The Daily Gold, as quoted on CNBC. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that gold remains overvalued from a macroeconomic perspective. They emphasize that recent price increases have been driven by uncertainty, and the factors creating that uncertainty are equally unstable. Despite the potential for a correction, they note that weakening economic sentiment continues to support gold's appeal—suggesting that high prices may persist, as quoted on Kitco. RBC analysts argue that a further rise in gold prices would require soft economic sentiments and rumors about recession to translate into weakness in hard data. This transition could fuel a more aggressive move by investors into gold. Despite negative projections, actual economic data continues to show strength, particularly in the labor market. However, we know that a clear downturn in the real economy could lead the Federal Reserve to shift from its current neutral policy stance to rate cuts, which can spark a fresh rally in gold. Consumer expectations for inflation are rising, stoking fears of stagflation. And gold is viewed as an inflation -protected assets (read: Fed Pause Amid Stagflation Risks? Smart ETF Moves to Follow). In early April, RBC Capital noted that if gold enters a consolidation phase, it could create opportunities for new investors. Many investors remain favorably inclined toward gold but are reluctant to buy at all-time highs. A period of price stabilization could provide the entry point they're waiting for. One can gain exposure to gold via ETFs that track the price of physical gold, if gold corrects little bit. The two largest options in the market are SPDR Gold Shares GLD, iShares Gold Trust Micro IAUM, SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust GLDM and iShares Gold Trust IAU. Financial advisors generally recommend limiting gold exposure to about 3% of an overall investment portfolio, as quoted on a CNBC the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): ETF Research Reports iShares Gold Trust (IAU): ETF Research Reports SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
17-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Wells Fargo's Samana Expects the Dollar to Rally
Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, expects the US dollar to rally from here as tech starts to bottom out and "hot money" comes back home. He's on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
13-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Most of Wall Street sinks after inflation worsens
NEW YORK (AP) — Most U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after a report showed inflation is unexpectedly worsening for Americans. The S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, though it had been on track for a much worse loss of 1.1% at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 225 points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq composite edged higher by less than 0.1%. Stocks pared their losses through the day as the price of oil eased. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude fell 2.7% below $72 after President Donald Trump said he had agreed with Russia's president to begin 'negotiations' on ending the war in Ukraine. Such a move could free up the global movement of crude. Still, Wall Street's overall momentum remained downward, and the majority of stocks fell. Treasury yields also remained notably higher in the bond market, cranking up the pressure on financial markets after the morning's report said U.S. consumers had to pay higher prices for eggs, gasoline and other costs of living than economists expected. Overall inflation was 3% for U.S. consumers in January. That was worse than the 2.9% inflation rate of December, which is what economists expected to see again. The inflation report suggested not only that pressure on U.S. households' budgets is amplifying but also that traders on Wall Street were correct to forecast the Federal Reserve will deliver less relief for Americans through lower interest rates this year. The Fed had cut its main interest rate sharply from September through the end of last year, intending to make borrowing cheaper, help the economy and boost prices for stocks, bonds and other investments. But the Fed warned at the end of 2024 it may not cut rates by as much in 2025 because of worries about inflation staying stubbornly high. Its goal is to keep inflation at 2%, and lower rates can give inflation more fuel. Some investors were betting on the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2025, even before Wednesday's report on the consumer price index, or CPI. 'The hotter than expected CPI confirms investors' anxiety regarding too-hot inflation that will keep the Fed on the sidelines,' said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. And January's reading doesn't account for any of the tariffs that Trump has recently announced, with possibly more on the way, which economists expect will raise prices for imports further. Tariffs 'will make their impact felt later in the year,' Samana said. Following January's discouraging inflation data, traders are betting on a 29% chance the Fed will not cut rates at all this year, according to data from CME Group. That's up from a less than 20% chance seen the day before. Such expectations sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 4.62% from 4.54% late Tuesday, which is a notable move for the bond market. When a 10-year Treasury, which is seen as one of the safest investments possible, is paying that much in interest, investors are less likely to pay high prices for stocks, which carry a higher risk of seeing their prices go to zero. That puts downward pressure on U.S. stock prices that critics say already look too expensive after running to repeated records last year, with the latest for the S&P 500 coming last month. One of the few ways companies have to counteract such downward pressure on their stock prices is to deliver stronger profits. Gilead Sciences did just that, and its stock rose 7.5% after the pharmaceutical company topped profit expectations for the latest quarter. It credited strength for its HIV products, among other things. CVS Health jumped 14.9% after easily topping Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations for the latest quarter. But topping profit forecasts isn't always enough. Ride-hailing app Lyft fell 7.9% despite reporting stronger earnings than expected. Lyft's revenue for the final three months of 2024 fell just short of analysts' forecasts. Homebuilders and other companies that can feel pain from mortgage rates staying higher amid a Fed on hold also weighed on the market. Home Depot fell 2.2%, Builders FirstSource sank 3.5% and Lennar dropped 2.7%. Exxon Mobil sank 3% as oil-and-gas companies fell broadly following the 2.4% drop for the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, to $75.18. Frontier Group Holdings, the parent company of Frontier Airlines, lost 4.9% after Spirit Airlines rejected a third takeover bid from the budget rival. Spirit said that it would focus on its own plan to emerge from the protection of a U.S. bankruptcy court and stabilize its finances. All told, the S&P 500 fell 16.53 points to 6,051.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 225.09 to 44,368.56, and the Nasdaq composite added 6.09 to 19,649.95. In stock markets abroad, indexes were mostly higher across much of Europe and Asia. ___ AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Yuri Kageyama contributed. Sign in to access your portfolio
Los Angeles Times
12-02-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
Most of Wall Street sinks after report of worsening inflation
NEW YORK — Most U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after a report showed inflation is unexpectedly worsening for Americans. The Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 0.3%, though it had been on track for a much worse loss of 1.1% at the start of trading. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 0.5%, while the Nasdaq composite edged higher by less than 0.1%. Stocks pared their losses through the day as the price of oil eased. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude fell 2.7% after President Trump said he had agreed with Russia's president to begin 'negotiations' on ending the war in Ukraine. Such a move could free up the global movement of crude. Still, Wall Street's overall momentum remained downward, and the majority of stocks fell. Treasury yields also remained notably higher in the bond market, cranking up the pressure on financial markets after the morning's report said U.S. consumers had to pay higher prices for eggs, gasoline and other costs of living than economists expected. Overall inflation was 3% for U.S. consumers in January. That was worse than the 2.9% inflation rate of December, which is what economists expected to see again. The inflation report suggested not only that pressure on U.S. households' budgets is amplifying but also that traders on Wall Street were correct to forecast the Federal Reserve will deliver less relief for Americans through lower interest rates this year. The Fed had cut its main interest rate sharply from September through the end of last year, intending to make borrowing cheaper, help the economy and boost prices for stocks, bonds and other investments. But the Fed warned at the end of 2024 that it might not cut rates as much in 2025 because of worries about inflation staying stubbornly high. Its goal is to keep inflation at 2%, and lower rates can give inflation more fuel. Some investors were betting on the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2025, even before Wednesday's report on the consumer price index, or CPI. 'The hotter than expected CPI confirms investors' anxiety regarding too-hot inflation that will keep the Fed on the sidelines,' said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. And January's reading doesn't account for any of the tariffs that Trump has recently announced, with possibly more on the way, which economists expect will raise prices for imports further. Tariffs 'will make their impact felt later in the year,' Samana said. After January's discouraging inflation data, traders are betting on a 29% chance the Fed will not cut rates at all this year, according to data from CME Group. That's up from a less than 20% chance seen the day before. Such expectations sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 4.62% from 4.54% late Tuesday, which is a notable move for the bond market. When a 10-year Treasury, which is seen as one of the safest investments possible, is paying that much in interest, investors are less likely to pay high prices for stocks, which carry a higher risk of seeing their prices go to zero. That puts downward pressure on U.S. stock prices that critics say already look too expensive after running to repeated records last year, with the latest for the S&P 500 coming last month. One of the few ways companies have to counteract such downward pressure on their stock prices is to deliver stronger profits. Gilead Sciences did just that, and its stock rose 7.5% after the pharmaceutical company topped profit expectations for the latest quarter. It credited strength for its HIV products, among other things. CVS Health jumped 14.9% after easily topping Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations for the latest quarter. But topping profit forecasts isn't always enough. Ride-hailing app company Lyft fell 7.9% despite reporting stronger earnings than expected. Lyft's revenue for the final three months of 2024 fell just short of analysts' forecasts. Home builders and other companies that can be hurt when mortgage rates stay higher also weighed on the market. Home Depot fell 2.2%, Builders FirstSource sank 3.5% and Lennar dropped 2.7%. Exxon Mobil sank 3% as fossil fuel companies fell broadly after the 2.4% drop for the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, to $75.18. Frontier Group Holdings, the parent company of Frontier Airlines, lost 4.9% after Spirit Airlines rejected a third takeover bid from the budget rival. Spirit said it would focus on its own plan to emerge from bankruptcy and stabilize its finances. All told, the S&P 500 fell 16.53 points to 6,051.97. The Dow dropped 225.09 points to 44,368.56, and the Nasdaq composite added 6.09 points, closing at 19,649.95. In stock markets abroad, indexes were mostly higher across much of Europe and Asia. Choe writes for the Associated Press. AP writers Matt Ott and Yuri Kageyama contributed to this report.
