Latest news with #SaxoBankCommodities


Mid East Info
2 days ago
- Business
- Mid East Info
COT Report: Speculators slash commodity longs to 11-month low, gold remains dominant
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Commodities In the week to August 5, several major developments drove positioning changes across key commodities. Trump's abrupt reversal on copper tariffs triggered a 22% slump in New York prices, prompting funds to halve their HG copper net long. In energy, OPEC+'s continued production increases—potentially into a softening demand period—pressured crude oil, while fading tightness in the diesel market led to long liquidation in London and New York from recent three-year highs. Grains remained under pressure as favourable U.S., European, and Black Sea weather maintained strong crop prospects, reinforcing elevated speculative short positions across wheat, corn, and soybeans. Notably, soybean futures jumped 2.5% in early Monday trade after Trump urged China to quadruple U.S. soy purchases as part of efforts to cut its trade deficit with China. As of late July, US government data showed China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, had yet to book any cargoes for the upcoming season that starts in September as tensions between the two sides linger. Overall, managed money accounts engaged in broad-based selling, with most of the 27 major commodity futures tracked seeing net reductions. The combined net long fell to an 11-month low of 540,000 contracts, valued at USD 107 billion. More than half of this nominal value came from gold's 161,811-contract net long—which, in contrast to the broader trend, rose 13% last week as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and potential dovish shift from the FOMC boosted September rate-cut expectations. Forex Despite emerging signs of the recent dollar recovery had run out of steam, speculators extended their recent buying spree to six leading to a considerable amount of further dollar short-covering. Overall, the gross USD short versus eight IMM forex futures slumped by 38% to USD 7.1 billion, the lowest belief in a weaker dollar since April, with selling seen across all eight except the Mexican peso, and led by JPY, EUR and not least GBP after the net short jumped to near a three-year high. Another extreme emerged in AUD where the net short reached an 18-month high.


Mid East Info
26-05-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
COT Report: Hedge funds return to gold; elevated grains short ahead of key season
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Commodities The latest COT reporting week to 20 May captured the aftermath of the announced 90-day US–China trade truce, which included a temporary reduction in tariffs. While the news supported additional gains across global stock markets and renewed USD weakness, the commodities sector traded in a very mixed fashion—resulting in a 1% drop in the Bloomberg Commodities Index. This was driven by weakness across most sectors, except precious metals and grains. The managed money group of traders, tracked in this update, responded with limited enthusiasm. This was partly due to the current lack of clear trends across several major commodities, many of which have experienced volatile but rangebound trading—conditions that tend to reduce appetite for large-scale, one-directional bets. One of the few exceptions was the grains sector, where traders held the biggest net short position across soybeans, corn, and wheat in nine months—and the highest for this time of year in six years—just ahead of the important growing season, during which weather developments often have a significant impact on market performance. In energy, a rangebound crude oil market saw net selling of WTI offset by demand for Brent, keeping the total net long near a six-week high at 245k contracts. Despite trading lower on the week, demand for the NY diesel contract jumped, resulting in the first—albeit small—net long in two months. Hedge funds turned net buyers of gold for the first time in ten weeks, during which the net long had slumped to a 15-month low at 111k contracts—a 52% reduction since January. Renewed demand was supported by signs that the month-long correction had run its course, after prices rallied back above USD 3,200 per ounce. Meanwhile, a small amount of net silver buying paled in comparison with platinum, which—together with palladium—surged after finally breaking through key levels of resistance. The platinum position flipped back to a 6.2k long, while the net short in palladium was reduced by 27%. Overall, a sustained rally will force additional demand from wrong-footed short sellers, and those rebuilding longs. Note, in the past five years, when platinum traded mostly sideways, several periods of demand saw the platinum net long peak between 20k and 25k contracts. Across the agriculture sector, the main focus was once again on the grains segment, which—except for wheat—saw broad net selling from funds during a week where the Bloomberg Grains Index overall showed a 1.6% gain. This lifted the net short across the three major crop futures to 330k contracts—a nine-month high, and the highest for this time of year in six years. Managed money speculators are pricing in almost no weather or logistics risk premium as we enter the critical US summer growing season. Forex The latest reporting week to 20 May covered an extended risk-on period across markets following the US-China decision to lower tariffs for 90 days. However, while these developments saw renewed and broad US dollar weakness, the focus among speculators—wrongly as it turned out—pointed in the opposite direction, with naked short bets rising across all the eight IMM forex futures covered in this update, overall leading to a 27% reduction in the gross US dollar short to USD 12.4 billion. The bulk of selling against the US dollar was led by CAD (–21.7k or USD 1.6 billion equivalent) and euros (–10.3k or USD 1.5 billion equivalent), followed by AUD and JPY. In the days that followed the reporting period, the greenback saw fresh weakness amid fiscal debt concerns and renewed tariff focus after Trump vented his anger against the EU and Apple, culminating in early Monday trading when the Bloomberg Dollar Index hit a December 2023 low.