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The Herald Scotland
6 hours ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Reform and indy will be at the heart of our debate for years
Of course, by now you already know the result, so you'll know which of the following scenarios and their consequences are the most accurate. But let me start with what the national polls tell us ought to have happened, by-election peculiarities – which I'll come to – notwithstanding. The SNP should have won with around 33% of the vote, down significantly on the 46.2% it won in 2021, with Labour in a narrow second on around 28% of the vote. Reform should have come third with just under 20% of the vote, while the Conservatives should have collapsed to under 10% of the vote. The rest of the vote, around 10%, will have been split among the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and myriad minor parties and independents. But by-elections rarely work out this way, even when the national polls are accurate. Firstly, voters are more likely to have voted in protest than they are at national elections, which may well help Reform in this case. As Jamie, a service engineer from Hamilton, told a focus group run by More in Common, it's 'time to give someone else a chance,' even if he thinks Nigel Farage is an 'a***hole'. Read more by Mark McGeoghegan Secondly, turnout will likely have collapsed. In the Hamilton and Rutherglen West by-election in October 2023, turnout fell by 43% compared to the 2019 General Election. A similar decline here would see around 15,600 voters who would otherwise turn out in a national election stay at home instead. Given that voters turning out to vote Reform as a protest against both the SNP and Labour governments are likely to be more motivated than SNP and Labour voters, this may also advantage Reform. In fact, assuming predictions based on national polling would otherwise have been accurate, Reform's vote will only have to have been marginally more resilient for it to finish ahead of Labour and narrowly behind the SNP. Factor in that first peculiarity of by-election campaigns, and such a scenario is hardly far-fetched. On the eve of the by-election, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar accused the First Minister, John Swinney, and journalists of manufacturing Reform's competitiveness in the seat. Nothing could be further from the truth, and a Reform underperformance yesterday will have been more surprising than it coming second. It has demonstrated its strength in a succession of local by-elections, the latest of which saw it beat Labour to come second behind the SNP. Whether or not Reform came second yesterday, its performance will shape the narrative in Scottish politics going into next year's elections in conjunction with its UK-wide polling lead (it has led in 25 consecutive polls going back to the beginning of May) and strong results in recent local elections and Parliamentary by-elections in England. Ultimately, regardless of yesterday's result, the spectre of Nigel Farage looms over Scottish politics. There are three broad scenarios. Firstly, that Reform performed to its Scotland-wide polling, confirming that it is on course to win between 15 and 20 seats in next year's Scottish Parliament election. Secondly, that it did overperform, perhaps coming second, leading to the next 11 months to being dominated by the SNP seeking to present next year's elections as a choice between the SNP and Nigel Farage, and a bitter fight between Reform and Labour for status as the main challengers to the SNP. Thirdly, that it underperformed, in which case the SNP will be quick to emphasise divergence between Scottish and English politics. In any case, the SNP will use the prospect of a Reform government at Westminster to try to increase the salience of the constitutional question, attempting to return independence to the heart of the Scottish political agenda ahead of next year's elections and the following UK general election. It knows that that is its best bet for winning back pro-independence voters who have swung to Labour in recent years. Replacing Humza Yousaf with John Swinney may have stabilised the SNP's support, but the party not really recovered in any meaningful way. The longer Reform leads in UK-wide polls, the more likely that narrative will be to gain purchase among the independence-supporting electorate. Strong Reform showings in Scotland will reinforce the sense that they could win power in 2029; weak performances will emphasise the ways in which Scottish and English politics may be diverging. Both provide hooks for the SNP. The spectre of Nigel Farage looms large over Scottish politics (Image: PA) The bigger question is whether this leads to a change in the constitutional deadlock. Some recent polling suggests that support for independence may have edged up. Norstat recently recorded its first Yes leads in three years, finding Yes ahead by seven points in the wake of Reform's strong showing in the English local elections. Survation still has No ahead by two or three points, down from leads of seven or eight points a year ago. The data is not conclusive, and we should be cautious of hypotheticals around whether developments will change voters' minds – we had enough such polls around Brexit and Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister that never bore out. But the prominence of Reform UK and Nigel Farage in UK politics is a gift to the SNP and the independence movement, regardless of how they performed yesterday or how they perform north of the Border in the coming year. If Anas Sarwar is frustrated with his opponents' and the media's "obsession" with Reform UK, he should get used to that feeling – they'll be at the heart of Scottish political debate for years to come. Mark McGeoghegan is a Glasgow University researcher of nationalism and contentious politics and an Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change. He can be found on BlueSky @
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Labour confounds expectations with Hamilton by-election victory
Let's start with the basics - victory in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election is a good result for Scottish Labour. Their position in the polls has slipped considerably since last year's general election and they've often found themselves on the defensive when it comes to controversial UK Labour policies, such as cuts to winter fuel payments. Despite all that, they've taken the Holyrood seat from the SNP. This result will be a massive boost to party activists, politicians, and leader Anas Sarwar. Even after the polls closed the SNP seemed quietly confident of victory. Their leader, John Swinney, had claimed that only his party could beat Reform in this particular seat. But Labour confounded expectations somewhat. Their newest MSP, Davy Russell, is off to Holyrood. He'd faced criticism for avoiding some interviews during the campaign, but party insiders insist that his local popularity is what allowed them to squeeze a victory. All that being said, there are some caveats to this result. Labour won a Westminster by-election in this area less than two years ago with a majority of about 9,500. And in the 2024 General Election they won the corresponding House of Commons seat by a similar margin. This time they squeaked through on a thin margin of about 600 votes. Their position does seem to have slipped - and the Scotland-wide polls would back this up. Also, this is a Scottish Parliament seat. The SNP have been in government in Edinburgh since 2007, and by-elections can often prove difficult for the party that's in power. But, at least in the immediate aftermath of this result, Labour are unlikely to let those factors take anything away from their win. However, it's not just first and second place which merit some analysis. Reform UK, who finished third with about 7,000 votes, weren't actually that far behind first place Labour. This contest turned out to be a tight three-horse race. The new-ish party was hoping for second. They've fallen slightly short of that, but will still be fairly happy with their performance. This was the first electoral contest in Scotland that they've put the full might of their party machine into. Reform leader Nigel Farage even made a campaign visit. They've made it clear that they are likely to be real competitors in next year's Holyrood election. But there was a sense that voters in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse were scunnered with the status quo. It wasn't unusual to hear them complain about the cost of living, the state of the health service, or the condition of the High Street. Both the SNP and Labour would have to take some responsibility for those problems due to their respective positions of power at Holyrood and Westminster. And yet Reform couldn't quite beat either of them in what was quite a fertile environment for a party promising to shake things up. There are plenty of seats across the central belt of Scotland that will be electorally similar to Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. So there may well be more SNP/Labour/Reform fights to come when Scots go to the polls next year. Reform are still a relatively unknown quantity in Scotland, and their swift rise to prominence is a factor that could make that election fairly unpredictable. But what about the performance of the Conservatives? Back in 2021, they took third in this seat with around 18% of the vote. Last night they narrowly held onto their deposit with 6%. It's likely that the introduction of Reform – another party of the right – is eating into their vote. That could prove disastrous for them come the 2026 Holyrood election. Something needs to change quickly for the Scottish Conservatives, or they could face significant losses next year. It will be Labour activists who are waking up happy this morning – perhaps to better news than many of them expected. But they threw the kitchen sink at this seat, with over 200 activists on the ground on polling day - and that only delivered a narrow victory. Regardless, a win's a win. And those sort of triumphs are even sweeter when they surprise many of the pundits and pollsters. Plenty could change over the next 11 months as we head towards a Scottish election. And if this by-election is anything to go by, the victor in many seats may get a bit harder to predict. Labour defeats SNP to win Hamilton by-election as Reform finish third Labour wins Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election Hamilton is a dead town - what will our new MSP do to save it?
Scotsman
a day ago
- Politics
- Scotsman
Huge ramifications on the line for SNP, Labour and Reform after Hamilton by-election dirty campaign
Huge ramifications are ahead from the fallout of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... When a new MSP is selected for South Lanarkshire tonight, much more will be on the line than simply choosing the newest face to join the ranks at Holyrood. The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, being held due to the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie, will have huge ramifications for Scottish politics and for next year's Scottish Parliament election. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad John Swinney in Hamilton ahead of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election (Photo by Jeff) | Getty Images Without any local polling, experts and commentators have relied on Scotland-wide opinion forecasting that points to the SNP winning the seat - while Labour face a battle for second place with Nigel Farage's Reform UK. SNP leaving nothing to chance The SNP are taking nothing for granted but on the ground, it feels like this is their seat to lose. One senior SNP source said that they were taking a leaf out of Nicola Sturgeon's book, who would always be 'pessimistic' about elections, despite being incredibly successful at the ballot box. It is clear the SNP is leaving nothing to chance. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad John Swinney's persistent message of framing the election about a choice between the SNP and Reform is a canny one - tabling his party as the only option to stop Mr Farage getting a foothold in Scottish politics. An SNP source stressed that 'we have to win this for Christina', adding that 'she stood for the exact opposite of what Reform do'. 'She would have been so annoyed if we lose her seat to them', the insider added. Christina McKelvie MSP has died at the age of 57 (Picture: Andrew Cowan/Scottish Parliament) | Andrew Cowan/Scottish Parliament A lot of the focus has been on Labour and Reform - not helped by the misinformation aimed at Anas Sarwar by Mr Farage and his chaotic visit north of the Border earlier this week. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Big moment for John Swinney's leadership But for the SNP, a win in today's by-election will be the first real step towards Mr Swinney retaining power at next year's Holyrood election. It could even be a bit of a leap. Things could have been so different. Just 11 months ago, Scottish Labour obliterated the SNP in the Westminster general election that saw Sir Keir Starmer become Prime Minister and Mr Swinney's party whittled down to just nine MPs. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (centre right) and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (centre left) pose for a photograph with the new intake of Scottish Labour MPs outside no 10 Downing Street. But as is so often the case in politics, things have rapidly changed. On the wave of success last summer, Mr Sarwar insisted that the Westminster result was the first of two stages of a Labour victory. But the UK Labour government has managed to upset large swathes of the electorate from day one of power - putting the sequel on the ropes. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad UK government causing Labour damage Labour's plummet in the polls has been unprecedented. Chancellor Rachel Reeves instantly painted a gloomy picture of the economy as justification for a flurry of unpopular policies. But Labour's biggest error has been in failing, alongside that context, to instill confidence they can fix the mess and bring about the change that was promised. That lacklustre message from Labour has been an open goal for the SNP. If Katy Loudon, the SNP by-election candidate does become an MSP, it would signal the party finally putting behind it a dismal couple of years - with a laser focus set on retaining power next year. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Mr Swinney has been careful not to assume his party will be victorious today, but he has suggested that doing so would be a big move towards him retaining power. For Labour, a defeat could be catastrophic. Anas Sarwar with Scottish Labour candidate Davy Russell ahead of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election (Photo by Jeff) | Getty Images If this by-election was being held in the context of last year, Mr Sarwar would be on course for a statement victory that would set his sights on the Bute House hot-seat. Instead, the Scottish Labour leader risks staring down a humbling defeat with no obvious strategy to resurrect his plans for power in 11 months' time. From outside the Labour bubble, the obvious place to point the finger would be the UK government. Even yesterday as Mr Sarwar and his candidate, Davy Russell, rallied the troops for the final full day of campaigning, a local walking past the set-piece event in the middle of Hamilton simply shouted 'but what will you do for the Waspi women' in an attack on another promise Sir Keir's government has backtracked on. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad A senior Labour source said the media had been 'swept up' by the fuss caused by Mr Farage and Reform and that the significance had been 'completely overblown'. The Reform leader's visit north has probably done Labour a favour, but if Mr Sarwar's party securing second place is spun as a positive result, it will be clear that things are tough. Farage's mischief If Scottish Labour do suffer defeat in today's by-election, particularly if they drop behind Reform, without shaking that legacy of one of the most unpopular UK governments in living memory, Mr Sarwar's chances of becoming the next first minister are toast. Reform probably cannot believe their luck. Mr Farage's party has grabbed headlines and insists it can make waves in today's election. Expectations have been downgraded somewhat, however, with Mr Farage suggesting coming in third place would be a good achievement. And despite the circus his party had brought to the campaign, dirty and nasty in large doses, he is not wrong. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad A huge part of the likely fallout from this by-election is yet to be explored in depth - the dismal prospects for Russell Findlay's Scottish Conservatives if they fall significantly behind Reform, as is a real possibility. Nigel Farage speaking in Scotland | Lisa Ferguson Mr Farage's party is not as popular as it is south of the Border, but it is clear that a significant number of Scots, including in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, have been persuaded by his message. This campaign has been all about causing mischief for Reform, but winning a significant number of votes will put Mr Farage's party on course to enter Holyrood next year, most likely through the regional list - a prospect that looked almost impossible just 12 months ago.
Scotsman
2 days ago
- General
- Scotsman
Specsavers Goalside Guides selected as visually impaired fans set to enjoy enhanced Scotland matchday experience
Two budding commentators have been selected to become Specsavers' Goalside Guides for Scotland's upcoming game against Iceland. Sign up to our daily newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to Edinburgh News, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... As the Official Eye and Ear Care Partner of the Scottish FA, last month Specsavers launched a Scotland-wide campaign to find emerging commentating talent to pair with visually-impaired fans for Friday night's match at Hampden. Steve Clarke's Scotland men's side take on Iceland in the friendly encounter, with Andrew Morrison and Sam Smith selected to be on audio description duty. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Andrew, who is from Thurso and studies at Edinburgh Napier Uni, and Paisley lad Sam have been put through their paces by commentator, pundit and former Scotland international Leanne Crichton, who has been sharing her top tips for audio-descriptive broadcasting. Sam Smith, Leanne Crichton and Andrew Morrison. The pair are ready to provide real-time audio commentary for the fans on Friday night and can't wait to get going. Sam said: 'I've always wanted to commentate on a match at Hampden so I'm absolutely buzzing to be doing this, thanks to the support from Specsavers with this initiative. 'Leanne's words of advice and stories about her time in the game were brilliant and very valuable ahead of us picking up the mic on Friday night.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Andrew added: 'Being selected to become a Specsavers Goalside Guide is a real privilege and I'm buzzing to be able to do it at Hampden for a Scotland game. 'I'm a proud Scot and can't wait to help bring the game to life for a fellow-fan – I've been practicing my Icelandic pronunciation in preparation!' Former Scotland hero Leanne shared some words of wisdom with the guys as they spent time in the Hampden gantry warming up ahead of the match. She said: 'It's not until I started working in broadcasting that I fully appreciated the value and power of the spoken word and audio commentary. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'I get to work alongside some of the best in the business at the BBC and, what I'd say, is preparation is key. 'Knowing your stuff and getting immersed in the game can only help supporters, particularly those with vision impairments, get lost in the action as well.' Jenny Stephenson, Divisional Chair for Scotland, said: 'We're thrilled to bring this project to life in partnership with the Scottish FA. The campaign will give fans who are blind or partially sighted a new way to experience the excitement of live football direct from the stadium. 'Hearing loss is a growing global health issue that can significantly impact a person's quality of life. For those with visual impairments, however, good hearing health becomes even more critical. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'This is a great example of how hearing health can make a tangible difference to people's lives, and we're excited to raise awareness of the importance of good hearing alongside this impactful initiative.' As the Official Eye and Ear Care Partner of the Scottish FA, Specsavers is here to change lives through better sight and hearing, by making expert care accessible and affordable for all. Visit or go in store to book an appointment with one of our experts.
The National
3 days ago
- General
- The National
SNP return to Hamilton for a by-election fraught with symbolism
The late Christina McKelvie's winning margin over the Labour candidate in the seat was 12.6% at the 2021 election, which sounds healthy enough – but that was achieved in the context of a record-breaking national landslide for the SNP, when Scottish Labour were trailing by more than 26 points across the country. To win Thursday's by-election, Labour wouldn't need to be anywhere close to a Scotland-wide lead over the SNP. Trimming the SNP's national lead to 13 points would, on a uniform swing, be enough to push Labour ahead in the constituency. Consequently, this is a by-election that would have been unwinnable for the SNP during most of 2024. And as a reminder, the constituency overlaps with the Westminster seat of Hamilton and Clyde Valley, which was easily captured by Labour at last July's General Election by a 22-point margin. READ MORE: Scottish Labour by-election candidate flounders after dodging question 11 times By March of this year, when it became clear the by-election would be taking place, the SNP had re-established themselves and held an 11-point Scotland-wide lead on the Holyrood constituency ballot in a poll conducted by Survation – but even that was a small enough gap to leave Labour as slight favourites to gain Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Since then, there has been a poll showing the SNP with a huge 21-point national lead, which raised hopes that the by-election was taking place at a favourable time, and that the SNP might come away with a comfortable victory. But the most recent poll at the weekend from Norstat had the national lead at 14 points, which is consistent with only a razor-thin SNP advantage over Labour in Hamilton. History and symbolism are the other reasons why the SNP might have preferred this contest to be taking place somewhere else. Hamilton was the scene of their greatest-ever by-election success in 1967, when Winnie Ewing stunned Labour by winning on a mammoth 38% swing. The historical importance of that triumph can be explained very simply: prior to 1967, the SNP had never had any parliamentary representation (apart from for a few short weeks in 1945), but since then they have never been without parliamentary representation. And yet they've learned the hard way that returning to the scene of their most famous win has its dangers. In 1978, another Hamilton by-election came up, and the SNP put forward Margo MacDonald as a big-name candidate, in the hope and expectation that she would repeat Ewing's feat. Instead, there was a swing against the SNP, allowing Labour's George Robertson to romp home decisively. The symbolic turning of the tide in the very place where it had all started for the SNP helped to generate considerable momentum for Labour, and contributed to the SNP's massive setback in the 1979 General Election. If a third dramatic upset in a Hamilton by-election is reported by the media on Friday, that will be bad news for the SNP because by definition it will mean they have lost. And despite the arithmetic firmly suggesting Labour should be in the hunt on Thursday, most of the chatter from the ground suggests that if the SNP face any real threat, it comes from Reform UK. A win for Farage's Unionist ultras would undoubtedly qualify as a by-election spectacular on a par with Hamilton 1967, and would invite comparisons that the independence movement might prefer to avoid. However, the latest polling suggests that Reform are still well behind the SNP nationally, which means that the Nationalists ought to be able to fend off the challenge – especially as there doesn't seem a reason to believe that Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is unusually favourable terrain for Reform. READ MORE: Nigel Farage splashes 'unimaginable cash' on private jet jaunt to Scotland There was no real sign of that at the General Election last year, when Reform took 8% of the vote in Hamilton and Clyde Valley – only a smidgeon better than their Scotland-wide showing of 7%. Constituency-level estimates from the 2016 EU referendum also suggest that the local vote for Leave may actually have been a tad lower than the Scotland-wide figure of 38% – and it's known there is still a strong correlation between support for Brexit and support for Reform. So despite the jitters, most of the indicators suggest the SNP are the likely winners on Thursday. But parliamentary by-elections are strange bubble environments in which voters often behave in a way they normally wouldn't. The only safe assumption is that almost anything is possible.
