Latest news with #ScottHelfstein
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Inflation keeps falling despite tariff clamor
Prices are cooling even though President Trump's trade war is dragging on and businesses keep threatening to raise their prices in response to it. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to a 2.1-percent annual increase in April, down from 2.3 percent in March and 2.6 percent in April, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Removing the more volatile categories of food and energy, PCE prices fell to a 2.5-percent increase. 'The impact of tariffs is once again missing from the inflation report,' Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at financial company Global X, said in a commentary. 'Each month we keep trying to assess whether tariffs are going to drive inflation higher, but the pauses keep pushing the prospect of higher prices further out,' he wrote. White House trade policy went through another major turnaround this week. Trump's wide-ranging emergency tariff powers, encompassing his national security tariffs and novel 'reciprocal' tariffs, were struck down by a court Wednesday before immediately being reinstated by a higher court Thursday. Cooling PCE inflation follows a similar pattern in the consumer price index (CPI), another pricing benchmark. After ticking up through the fall, the CPI has fallen throughout the first quarter of this year, dropping down to a 2.3-percent annual increase from 3 percent in January. U.S. consumers and businesses are showing themselves to be highly attuned to all the policy changes, which are coming fast and furious from the White House. After Trump's trade war tanked consumer and business sentiment earlier this year, importers executed a massive pull-forward in orders, leading to a 0.3-percent contraction in first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Consumers followed suit, increasing spending on automobiles by a whopping 57 percent in March ahead of expected tariffs. Now, just as businesses are holding off on making investments and capital expenditures, consumers are holding off on making purchases amid continued policy fluctuations. The April PCE report showed spending increasing by just 0.2 percent last month, while the personal saving rate increased to 4.9 percent from 4.3 percent in March. 'There is clear evidence that consumers are battening down the hatches, with data showing the highest savings rate since May 2024. However, robust disposable income growth bodes well for future spending,' Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, commented. Sustained hesitance from consumers in response to policy ambiguity could work against the many inflationary prognostications now swirling about the economy, driving down price pressures even as tariffs threaten to raise them. The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting painted a stagflationary picture of the economy, with bankers voicing concerns about higher prices, lower output levels and increased unemployment. 'Tariffs were expected to boost inflation markedly this year,' the minutes say – an increase that has yet to materialize. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
6 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Inflation keeps falling despite tariff clamor
Prices are cooling even though President Trump's trade war is dragging on and businesses keep threatening to raise their prices in response to it. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to a 2.1-percent annual increase in April, down from 2.3 percent in March and 2.6 percent in April, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Removing the more volatile categories of food and energy, PCE prices fell to a 2.5-percent increase. 'The impact of tariffs is once again missing from the inflation report,' Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at financial company Global X, said in a commentary. 'Each month we keep trying to assess whether tariffs are going to drive inflation higher, but the pauses keep pushing the prospect of higher prices further out,' he wrote. White House trade policy went through another major turnaround this week. Trump's wide-ranging emergency tariff powers, encompassing his national security tariffs and novel 'reciprocal' tariffs, were struck down by a court on Wednesday before immediately being reinstated by a higher court on Thursday. Cooling PCE inflation follows a similar pattern in the consumer price index (CPI), another pricing benchmark. After ticking up through the fall, the CPI has fallen throughout the first quarter of this year, dropping down to a 2.3-percent annual increase from 3 percent in January. U.S. consumers and businesses are showing themselves to be highly attuned to all the policy changes, which are coming fast and furious from the White House. After Trump's trade war tanked consumer and business sentiment earlier this year, importers executed a massive pull-forward in orders, leading to a 0.3-percent contraction in first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Consumers followed suit, increasing spending on automobiles by a whopping 57 percent in March ahead of expected tariffs. Now, just as businesses are holding off on making investments and capital expenditures, consumers are holding off on making purchases amid continued policy fluctuations. The April PCE report showed spending increasing by just 0.2 percent last month while the personal saving rate increased to 4.9 from 4.3 percent in March. 'There is clear evidence that consumers are battening down the hatches, with data showing the highest savings rate since May 2024. However, robust disposable income growth bodes well for future spending,' Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, commented. Sustained hesitance from consumers in response to policy ambiguity could work against the many inflationary prognostications now swirling about the economy, driving down price pressures even as tariffs threaten to raise them. The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting painted a stagflationary picture of the economy, with bankers voicing concerns about higher prices, lower output levels, and increased unemployment. 'Tariffs were expected to boost inflation markedly this year,' the minutes say – an increase that has yet to materialize.
The Star
30-04-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks close mixed to end April
NEW YORK, April 30 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday, as investors grappled with a flurry of economic reports and awaited key earnings results from major tech firms. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 141.74 points, or 0.35 percent, to 40,669.36. The S&P 500 added 8.23 points, or 0.15 percent, to 5,569.06, to end its third consecutive losing month. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 14.98 points, or 0.09 percent, to 17,446.34. Seven of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ended in green, with health and industrials leading the gainers by adding 0.89 percent and 0.74 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, energy and consumer discretionary led the laggards by losing 2.61 percent and 1.11 percent, respectively. The biggest headline came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which reported that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.3 percent in the first quarter - the first economic contraction in three years. The decline, sharper than economists' forecast of a 0.1 percent dip, was largely attributed to a spike in imports. This marked a sharp reversal from the 2.4 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adding to the economic gloom, the latest ADP private payrolls report showed a slowdown in hiring for April. The report described the labor market as operating in a "difficult" environment, with growing unease among employers. "The continual sequence of policy reversals has led to very high levels of uncertainty for businesses and investors," said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs. "This report should be a canary in the coal mine for the new administration, but perhaps their willingness to inflict economic pain in pursuit of the long-term goals was underestimated." On inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, rose 3.5 percent in the first quarter. That figure came in hotter than expected - above estimates of 3.2 percent and significantly higher than the 2.6 percent posted in the previous quarter - potentially complicating the Fed's outlook on interest rate policy. However, on a monthly basis, PCE data for March showed some easing in price pressures. Investors are now turning their attention to earnings, particularly from Big Tech. Microsoft is set to report after the market close, with analysts closely watching for signs that its investments in artificial intelligence are beginning to pay off. Meta Platforms is also scheduled to release results, with investors keenly focused on how tariffs may be affecting its operations.
Miami Herald
01-04-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stock Market Today: Stocks mixed as investors brace for tariff unveiling
U.S. equity futures were mixed in early Tuesday trading, while Treasury yields and the dollar edged lower, as investors entered the first trading day of the second quarter with caution and focus on tomorrow's tariff announcement from President Donald Trump. Stocks ended higher last night, with the S&P 500 rising 0.55% across a volatile session that still left the benchmark down 4.6% for the quarter, its worst performance in nearly two years. The tech-focused Nasdaq, however, slipped 0.14% into the close of trading to extend its first quarter slump to around 10.5%. Wall Street's focus will now shift squarely towards Wednesday's tariff unveiling from President Donald Trump, set for 3:00 pm Eastern time at the White House Rose Garden, that is expected to offer at least some detail on levies planned against U.S. trading partners. With new levies on the auto, steel and aluminum sectors set to begin on Thursday, the delayed tariffs placed on Canada and Mexico and the increased duties on goods from China, Goldman Sachs estimates the average U.S. tariff will rise to around 15%, the highest in more than a century. "The real question is whether there will be blanket tariffs or a more detailed list at the country-product level," said Scott Helfstein, Global X's head of investment strategy. "Blanket tariffs would likely send the market lower, and that seems to be priced in," he added. "A more targeted approach would likely be bullish for risk assets and could trigger a relief rally. We believe that announcement will be more blanket, but investors should not go running for the hills." Bracing for the impact the tariffs are likely to have on global trade, as well as the likelihood of reprisals from major trading partners, investors continued to gravitate towards safe-haven assets in overnight trading, lifting gold prices to their 16th record high of the year and pushing U.S. Treasury bond yields lower. Benchmark 10-year notes were last marked 2 basis points lower from Monday levels at 4.178% while 2-year notes eased to 3.877%. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.15% lower at 104.060 while spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,131.56 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $3,148.88 earlier in the session. Related: Goldman Sachs analysts overhaul S&P 500, GDP targets as Trump tariffs bite Heading into the start of the trading day on Wall Street, futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 suggest a modest 8 point opening bell gain while those linked to the Nasdaq are priced for a 51 point advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slipped 1.3% over the first quarter, is called 24 points lower. Tesla (TSLA) shares, which fell 36% over the first quarter, were marked 3.8% higher in premarket ahead of the EV marker's first quarter delivery figures, which are expected prior to the opening bell. More Economic Analysis: Gold's price hit a speed bump; where does it go from here?7 takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarksRetail sales add new complication to Fed rate cut forecasts In overseas markets, Europe's Stoxx 600 rebounded from a two-month low, rising 1.2% in mid-day Frankfurt trading following a surprise easing in Eurozone inflation pressures in March that added to bets on a near-term rate cut from the European Central Bank. Britain's FTSE 100, meanwhile, was marked 0.94% higher in London. Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 edged just a few points higher by the close of trading, following a 10.7% first quarter slump that leaves the benchmark at the lowest levels in nearly 8 months. The region-wide MSCI ex-Japan index was last marked 0.87% higher into the close of trading, with modest gains in Hong Kong and a solid 1.62% advance for South Korea's Kospi. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
29-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks see second-worst day of the year amid inflation, AI investment concerns
Renewed inflation fears, plummeting consumer confidence and rising doubts about the payoff from artificial intelligence touched off a fresh round of heavy selling in stocks Friday. The broad S&P 500 closed down 2% for its second-worst day of 2025, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.7%. Those declines put both indexes on pace for their fifth weekly decline in six weeks, with the Nasdaq breaching its prior low for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.7% Since President Donald Trump's election in November, the S&P has declined about 5.9%, while the Nasdaq has fallen about 8.7%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported earlier Friday that a reading of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve climbed more than expected in February, suggesting the central bank's effort to keep interest rates higher to head off steeper price increases was running into resistance. A separate survey from the University of Michigan showed soaring inflation expectations among consumers as they continued to digest the threat from President Donald Trump's tariffs strategy. The same report showed a surge in forecasts for higher unemployment over the next year, while expectations of being better off financially in a year hence tanked. Those trends ran headlong into increasing concerns on Wall Street about the payoff from the massive investments in artificial intelligence that have occurred over the past two years or so and fueled some gains in the stock market. Shares in chipmaker Nvidia were down nearly 2% Friday and are now down 27% from their January high, erasing some $1 trillion in value. Earlier in the week, a Wall Street report alleged Microsoft had abandoned plans for new data center projects in the U.S. and Europe, suggesting the appetite for increased spending on AI was slowing. In a statement, Microsoft did not directly deny the report. 'Thanks to the significant investments we have made up to this point, we are well positioned to meet our current and increasing customer demand,' a Microsoft spokesperson said, adding that last year the company increased its capacity more than in any other year in its history. 'While we may strategically pace or adjust our infrastructure in some areas, we will continue to grow strongly in all regions,' the spokesperson said. 'This allows us to invest and allocate resources to growth areas for our future.' The Microsoft report came as the price sought for an AI-related initial public offering was trimmed. Reuters reported that cloud-computing group CoreWeave had slashed the proposed price range and number of shares to be sold in its planned IPO this week, and indeed the stock opened trading Friday below the target range it had sought. 'The market is getting squeezed by both sides. There is uncertainty around next week's reciprocal tariffs hitting the major exporting sectors like tech alongside concerns about a weakening consumer facing higher prices hitting areas like discretionary,' Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, told CNBC. Helfstein added, however, that the news on inflation and consumer spending 'was not that bad' and could simply represent a hiccup in near-term sentiment as investors struggle to understand the Trump administration's new policies. 'Despite today's selloff and broader market volatility of the past few weeks, there have not been big inflows into money markets. It seems like a lot of investors are trying to ride this out,' he said. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
