6 days ago
AI boom may drive over 60% surge in US nuclear capacity by 2050
This article was written by Bloomberg Intelligence industry analyst Nikki Hsu, with contributing analysis by Scott J. Levine and Gabriela Privetera. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.
US nuclear power is primed for a resurgence, with capacity rising 63% to 159 gigawatts by 2050 in our scenario — a $350 billion-plus build-out fueled by AI data centers' hunger for reliable, carbon-free energy. Policy support and narrowing cost gaps with renewables will spur growth, with early gains from plant upgrades and restarts, and small modular reactors scaling after 2035.
AI demand, policy incentives power nuclear rise
Net nuclear capacity may climb 52 GW from 2036-50 — a 2.7% compound annual growth rate — driven by policy support and AI data-center demand for clean, reliable power. Most additions arrive after 2035, as progress on small modular reactors (SMRs) may be constrained by permitting timelines, first-of-a-kind construction and financing risks and immature supply chains. BI's scenario assumes new reactors start by 2038, mirroring the 1970-90 pace of 4.5 GW a year. The high end reflects faster SMR adoption and favorable policy. The low end assumes delays on all fronts, resulting in more muted growth. We also factor in the retirement of 2 GW in 2049-50 as three reactors reach 80 years of operation.
Overall, BI projects 61 GW of net additions in 2025-50, lifting nuclear's share of US power generation to 20% from 18% in 2024.
Nuclear comeback: US may add 9 GW by 2035
US nuclear capacity is set to grow almost 9 GW through 2035 in our scenario, reaching just over 106 GW — an average of 800 megawatts a year, or a 0.8% CAGR. Gains may be limited to upgrades at existing plants, restarts of retired units and the completion of abandoned V.C. Summer reactors in South Carolina. Widespread SMR adoption is unlikely before 2035. Meanwhile, tech giants like Meta, Microsoft and have struck long-term nuclear deals to support AI and cloud operations.
Three planned restarts could add about 2.3 GW by decade's end: Holtec Palisades (0.8 GW, this year), Constellation's Three Mile Island Unit 1 (0.8 GW, 2027) and NextEra's Duane Arnold (0.6 GW, 2028). Santee Cooper seeks buyers to finish the two V.C. Summer units (1.1 GW each), though they likely won't come online before the early 2030s.
