Latest news with #ScottTranter
Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's where Trump's approval ratings stand on key issues
President Trump's approval ratings remain underwater as he gets mixed reviews on his immigration crackdown, economic handling and foreign policy five months into his second administration. Trump's approval on the economy, one of his biggest strengths throughout 2024, has appeared to improve slightly after taking a hit from chaotic tariff moves and stock market losses earlier this year, though it largely remains negative. And support for his handling of immigration, while still his strongest issue, has shown signs of weakening as he pursues his campaign promise of mass deportations. At the same time, his favorability and job approval numbers have ticked up slightly since the Israel-Iran ceasefire took hold, noted Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) — signaling some recovery even as the figures remain significantly lower than they were when Trump took office. Here's what voters think of Trump's job performance and moves on major issues heading into the July 4 holiday weekend: Trump started his second term with some of his highest approval numbers but crossed into net-negative territory this spring amid blowback over his whiplash moves on tariffs. After hitting a disapproval high in April, his numbers started to recover slightly in May and early June, according to averages from DDHQ. Last month, though, his numbers sank again, with a roughly 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval rating. At the same time, DDHQ's tracker has seen some improvement for Trump, as last week his net approval reached minus-8 points. 'Both favorability and job approval numbers for President Trump had an uptrend since last week's ending of the Iranian conflict,' Tranter said. 'We are seeing a range for both of these metrics that is for now, higher than the range was in his first term.' 'So, over the course of last week, it's gone up. But it is certainly lower than it was post-inauguration.' Gallup's tracker puts Trump at a 40 percent approval rating as of early June, before developments including the U.S. strikes against Iran. That figure is not far from the 38 percent approval he logged in June of 2017, during his first term, but is well behind former President Biden's 56 percent at this point during the Democrat's first year. New polling from The Economist/YouGov conducted June 27-30 found Trump with a net approval of minus 11 points, down from a minus 4 point net approval at the end of May. An Emerson College Polling survey taken last week found a similar slide, with Trump once again underwater. In a positive sign for the president, his economic numbers appear to be in recovery mode after his aggressive trade moves earlier this year dealt a blow to his approval. A tracker from pollster Nate Silver shows Trump's approval rating on the economy has appeared to even out after a significant downturn in March and April, now sitting at a minus-12 net rating. Trump had a 43 percent approval rating on jobs and the economy in the latest Economist/YouGov numbers, on par with the 42 percent logged at the end of last month — though he fell on inflation and prices from a negative 15 points to a minus-24 net score. Americans' assessments of the economy improved slightly in Gallup's June Economic Confidence Index, climbing from minus 22 points in April to minus 18 points in May and then minus 14 points this month. Trump scored a major legislative win this week when Congress passed his 'big, beautiful bill,' sending the sweeping package that could add trillions to the federal deficit to Trump's desk. Approval for the bill has been underwater in some polling, and it remains to be seen how its passage could impact the president's broader numbers. Immigration, another issue that bolstered Trump through both of his presidential campaigns, continues to be one of his strong suits in his second term, but some new polls suggest support for his hard-line stances are slacking. 'He's lost ground,' Tranter said. 'Some polls show he is underwater, and some are back and forth. So I think the consensus is: We can argue whether or not he still has a net positive support on immigration or not, but we can say that it's gone down.' The Economist/YouGov poll had Trump's approval on immigration at a positive net 7 points at the end of May, before it flipped to a net negative 3 points at the end of June. In the first few months of his second term, Trump has spearheaded a deportation blitz and worked to end birthright citizenship as part of a major crackdown on immigration. After Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) workplace raids sparked protests in Los Angeles last month, Trump sent thousands of National Guard members and Marines to California as he clashed with Democrats over the issue. A new poll from PBS News, NPR and Marist released this week found a minus-9 point net approval rating for Trump's immigration handling. A majority of Americans, or 54 percent, described ICE's actions to uphold immigration laws as having 'gone too far,' a figure bolstered largely by Democrats and independents. Meanwhile, 49 percent of surveyed Republicans described the actions as appropriate. Trump sent shock waves through the political world in late June when he announced that the U.S. had bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, inserting the U.S. into a tense conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. The president then brokered a fragile ceasefire that ended the 12-day conflict, and he has touted that the U.S. strikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear threat, even as some have called that claim into question. 'He's riding high after Iran,' Tranter said of Trump, calling it 'a clear win' for the commander in chief as he pointed to Trump's approval uptick over the past week. But Americans in the PBS News polling were divided about the U.S. strikes, with a 50-50 split on agreement with the military action. More than 8 in 10 surveyed Republicans supported the strikes, compared with 45 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats. Three in 4 Americans also worried that Iran could retaliate after the U.S. strikes. Americans in CNN polling were even more disapproving, with 56 percent of those surveyed against and 44 percent for the strikes, and 6 in 10 worried that the strikes could increase the Iranian threat to the U.S. Meanwhile, Trump announced this week that Israel agreed to conditions that could finalize a 60-day ceasefire with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza amid a conflict that has ravaged the Gaza Strip for nearly two years. If that deal goes through, it could mark the 'next theoretical big win' for Trump, Tranter said. Quinnipiac polling from mid-June found low approval for Trump's Israel-Hamas handling, at just 35 percent. He got similar marks, 34 percent approval, for his approach to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, a three-year conflict Trump has repeatedly claimed would not have happened on his watch. Trump struggled to make progress toward an end in fighting, lashing out at various points at both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
a day ago
- Business
- The Hill
Here's where Trump's approval ratings stand on key issues
President Trump's approval ratings remain underwater as he gets mixed reviews on his immigration crackdown, economic handling and foreign policy five months into his second administration. Trump's approval on the economy, one of his biggest strengths throughout 2024, has appeared to improve slightly after taking a hit from chaotic tariff moves and stock market losses earlier this year, though it largely remains negative. And support for his handling of immigration, while still his strongest issue, has shown signs of weakening as he pursues his campaign promise of mass deportations. At the same time, his favorability and job approval numbers have ticked up slightly since the Israel-Iran ceasefire took hold, noted Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) — signaling some recovery even as the figures remain significantly lower than they were when Trump took office. Here's what voters think of Trump's job performance and moves on major issues heading into the July 4 holiday weekend: Trump started his second term with some of his highest approval numbers but crossed into net-negative territory this spring amid blowback over his whiplash moves on tariffs. After hitting a disapproval high in April, his numbers started to recover slightly in May and early June, according to averages from DDHQ. Last month, though, his numbers sank again, with a roughly 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval rating. At the same time, DDHQ's tracker has seen some improvement for Trump, as last week his net approval reached minus-8 points. 'Both favorability and job approval numbers for President Trump had an uptrend since last week's ending of the Iranian conflict,' Tranter said. 'We are seeing a range for both of these metrics that is for now, higher than the range was in his first term.' 'So, over the course of last week, it's gone up. But it is certainly lower than it was post-inauguration.' Gallup's tracker puts Trump at a 40 percent approval rating as of early June, before developments including the U.S. strikes against Iran. That figure is not far from the 38 percent approval he logged in June of 2017, during his first term, but is well behind former President Biden's 56 percent at this point during the Democrat's first year. New polling from The Economist/YouGov conducted June 27-30 found Trump with a net approval of minus 11 points, down from a minus 4 point net approval at the end of May. An Emerson College Polling survey taken last week found a similar slide, with Trump once again underwater. In a positive sign for the president, his economic numbers appear to be in recovery mode after his aggressive trade moves earlier this year dealt a blow to his approval. A tracker from pollster Nate Silver shows Trump's approval rating on the economy has appeared to even out after a significant downturn in March and April, now sitting at a minus-12 net rating. Trump had a 43 percent approval rating on jobs and the economy in the latest Economist/YouGov numbers, on par with the 42 percent logged at the end of last month — though he fell on inflation and prices from a negative 15 points to a minus-24 net score. Americans' assessments of the economy improved slightly in Gallup's June Economic Confidence Index, climbing from minus 22 points in April to minus 18 points in May and then minus 14 points this month. Trump scored a major legislative win this week when Congress passed his 'big, beautiful bill,' sending the sweeping package that could add trillions to the federal deficit to Trump's desk. Approval for the bill has been underwater in some polling, and it remains to be seen how its passage could impact the president's broader numbers. Immigration, another issue that bolstered Trump through both of his presidential campaigns, continues to be one of his strong suits in his second term, but some new polls suggest support for his hard-line stances are slacking. 'He's lost ground,' Tranter said. 'Some polls show he is underwater, and some are back and forth. So I think the consensus is: We can argue whether or not he still has a net positive support on immigration or not, but we can say that it's gone down.' The Economist/YouGov poll had Trump's approval on immigration at a positive net 7 points at the end of May, before it flipped to a net negative 3 points at the end of June. In the first few months of his second term, Trump has spearheaded a deportation blitz and worked to end birthright citizenship as part of a major crackdown on immigration. After Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) workplace raids sparked protests in Los Angeles last month, Trump sent thousands of National Guard members and Marines to California as he clashed with Democrats over the issue. A new poll from PBS News, NPR and Marist released this week found a minus-9 point net approval rating for Trump's immigration handling. A majority of Americans, or 54 percent, described ICE's actions to uphold immigration laws as having 'gone too far,' a figure bolstered largely by Democrats and independents. Meanwhile, 49 percent of surveyed Republicans described the actions as appropriate. Trump sent shock waves through the political world in late June when he announced that the U.S. had bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, inserting the U.S. into a tense conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. The president then brokered a fragile ceasefire that ended the 12-day conflict, and he has touted that the U.S. strikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear threat, even as some have called that claim into question. 'He's riding high after Iran,' Tranter said of Trump, calling it 'a clear win' for the commander in chief as he pointed to Trump's approval uptick over the past week. But Americans in the PBS News polling were divided about the U.S. strikes, with a 50-50 split on agreement with the military action. More than 8 in 10 surveyed Republicans supported the strikes, compared with 45 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats. Three in 4 Americans also worried that Iran could retaliate after the U.S. strikes. Americans in CNN polling were even more disapproving, with 56 percent of those surveyed against and 44 percent for the strikes, and 6 in 10 worried that the strikes could increase the Iranian threat to the U.S. Meanwhile, Trump announced this week that Israel agreed to conditions that could finalize a 60-day ceasefire with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza amid a conflict that has ravaged the Gaza Strip for nearly two years. If that deal goes through, it could mark the 'next theoretical big win' for Trump, Tranter said. Quinnipiac polling from mid-June found low approval for Trump's Israel-Hamas handling, at just 35 percent. He got similar marks, 34 percent approval, for his approach to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, a three-year conflict Trump has repeatedly claimed would not have happened on his watch. Trump struggled to make progress toward an end in fighting, lashing out at various points at both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Hill
29-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Warning signs emerge for Trump with independent voters
President Trump is seeing warning signs emerge from independent voters as his approval rating weakens with the key voting bloc. Trump's net approval among unaffiliated voters reached its lowest level of his second term on Tuesday, according to an aggregate from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), with his disapproval rating surpassing 60 percent for the first time since he took office. This has accompanied a wider decline in his overall approval rating throughout June. The shifts among independents could be linked in particular to disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy, observers say. And they present an opportunity for Democrats as they struggle to rebuild their coalition heading into 2026 and beyond. 'Right now, the independents are the moving factor,' said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. 'He's holding his base, and he's staying steady not liked by Democrats, and so that's kind of why you see it.' A significant improvement among independents compared to the 2020 race was one key part of Trump's victory in last year's election. While he and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied in this group, according to a report released Thursday from Pew Research Center, that was a net 9-point shift toward him compared to four years earlier. Trump's approval rating has been relatively steady among Democrats and Republicans, with his numbers mostly staying in the mid-to-low teens for the former and the 80s for the latter. But the percentage of independents approving of his performance has fluctuated notably more. Tranter noted the movement is still relatively small compared to what shifts occurred historically, and independents only account for a small percentage of voters. 'A 3-to-4 point movement among his base is worth roughly the movement we saw in the independents in terms of vote share,' he said. 'Basically, we got to see massive movements like that in independents to really move the vote share.' 'He won independents, or had an edge on them in the battleground states in 2024,' he said. 'I don't know that it really matters a whole lot to him. It matters a whole lot more to the party, these congressionals going into 2026.' Some of the latest numbers across pollsters don't paint the brightest picture for Trump with voters who aren't as married to one party. Polls from YouGov/The Economist and Quinnipiac University show him more than 30 points underwater, while Emerson College shows him under by 12 points. One survey from a pollster associated with the Independent Center, which conducts research and works to engage independent voters, found only 37 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance. It also found declining support for him on the issues they considered most important ahead of his inauguration — lowering the debt, reducing inflation, cutting spending and easing political divisions. Lura Forcum, the center's president, said independents who supported Trump largely did because of economic concerns, but they aren't satisfied with the current progress. Economic indicators have been mixed throughout Trump's second term, with stocks rising and the S&P 500 hitting a record high Friday — but at the same time that a key inflation measure rose. The most recent update on gross domestic product from the first quarter of the year showed the economy shrank faster than initially thought. Forcum cited the result of the Democratic primary for the New York City mayoral race, in which democratic socialist Assembly member Zohran Mamdani won, as evidence that voters want a candidate who will do what's necessary to improve their financial situation, regardless of ideology. 'Voters want something to be done about the economy, and at this point, they are not really particular about the details,' she said. 'They are financially uncomfortable, and they're expecting candidates or elected officials to do something about it. And if you can't do that, you really, probably can't win them over at the end of the day.' She noted that the 2026 midterms are still more than a year away and time remains to win independents back, but Trump must 'deliver' on the issues that they have indicated are important. Republicans acknowledged the influence of independents in determining a candidate's success or failure and that Trump has time to improve, but they differed on how much the numbers are a warning sign. Veteran GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas said any time that a president has lower approval ratings, it can weigh down other candidates seeking to rise, even if it's only a difference of a few points. He said a Republican challenging Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) next year would have a much easier time if Trump's approval rating is 48 percent rather than 42 percent. As of Thursday, Trump's overall approval rating stands at 45.8 percent in the DDHQ average. Nicholas, who publishes the PA Political Digest newsletter, argued that economic information has improved as the stock market's past losses have been reversed. But he said the more time that passes in which independents don't approve of Trump's performance, the harder convincing them will be. 'So the longer you're around, even though it's only been barely, five, six months, the harder it becomes, because now you have to change people's minds, get them back to neutral and then move them to favorable,' he said. Republican strategist Constantin Querard said the state of the generic congressional ballot, in which voters are broadly asked if they would want to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress, gives him more optimism. Despite Trump's struggles, the parties are tied in the average as of Wednesday, with 45.1 percent each. The population breakdown of congressional districts generally gives Republicans a slight advantage, requiring Democrats to lead in the generic ballot by a few points to have a strong chance at winning control of the House, which will be the party's main goal in 2026. 'It's almost the more important number going in 2026 because Trump's not on the ballot,' Querard said. 'In 2024, Trump put together a coalition that was larger than the usual and made up somewhat different than the usual,' he added. 'So we did better with minority voters, independent voters, Black men, Hispanic men. There were a lot of gains into a lot of communities that the question is, does that sustain itself? And gosh, we're a long way from knowing that.' And analysts agreed a frustration with the person in charge has been a commonality across multiple administrations in the current political era. Querard said if the numbers hold for Trump's approval and the generic ballot, it may mean voters choose to stay home rather than vote. 'If they voted for Trump in November and then they disappear, that's not good, but it's still a lot different than if they switched from Republicans to Democrats,' he said. Tranter said Trump's current numbers are what Democrats would want to see in 2026, but it would need to stay — and fluctuations are common. 'This number is what they want to see 12 months from now,' he said. 'It's just not 12 months from now. Maybe it holds, but we'll see.'
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trouble signs emerge for Trump in DDHQ/The Hill polling average
(The Hill) – President Trump has seen his favorability ratings start to take a hit in the first three months of his presidency amid growing criticism of his handling of the economy and various controversies, according to the initial polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. The averages show that Trump is currently underwater after starting his term in January with a net positive approval rating. DDHQ/The Hill's average had his approval rating above 50 percent for the first days of his presidency. By late April, his average approval rating had fallen under 45 percent. The averages suggest Trump could fall deeper underwater as he reaches the 100-day mark next week. 'The Democrats should be cautiously optimistic,' said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. 'They're having a very good batting practice, but we haven't reached the first inning of the game yet. 'The Republicans, they're not having the greatest start,' he added. 'It's not as bad as the first quarter was, in terms of this favorability, approval rating from the first term. So he's doing better than the first term. And there's quite a bit to play out in over the next 18 months.' DDHQ is maintaining six polling averages measuring Trump's approval rating and favorability rating, Vice President Vance's favorability rating, Elon Musk's favorability rating, the generic congressional ballot and whether voters feel the country is on the right or wrong track. As a whole, the numbers point to some troubling signs for Trump and the GOP as an early indicator of what to expect for next year's midterm elections. Trump was almost never above water during his first term in office, but he seemed to be initially in his second term. That hasn't lasted. The average on Wednesday showed Trump with a disapproval rating of 51.7 percent, the highest of his second term so far. On personal favorability, Trump also started out above water in DDHQ's average but has mostly been in the net negative since early February. The average shows 53 percent view Trump unfavorably and 44.5 percent view him favorably, both also setting the mark for his second term so far. The most prominent aspect likely driving the decline may be the economy, an issue that has been one of the president's greatest strengths since his first run for president in 2016. But recent polling has shown more voters viewing Trump's handling of the economy unfavorably than favorably, or breaking even at best, as he has carried out his wide-ranging tariff policy. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday found Trump's approval on the economy at 37 percent, the lowest rating of either of his terms. The poll came after significant economic turmoil, particularly in the stock and bond markets, before Trump announced a 90-day pause on what would have been his steepest tariffs yet. Several polls have shown that Trump's trade policy and use of tariffs is unpopular outside of his Republican base and many expect they could harm the economy. The Hill's Chris Stirewalt noted in his column last week that most presidents experience a 'honeymoon phase' that lasts for several months before political reality sets in. But he argued that Trump's position is less fluid than most of his predecessors because he's been in the Oval Office before. Presidents have historically had weaker approval ratings in their second terms than their first. 'So, it's a pretty straightforward story. The second-term president who had developed a strong brand on economic performance undertakes a program of economic pain he promises will deliver long-term gain,' Stirewalt wrote. 'If the neighborhood pizza place your family had been visiting every week started putting kale in the crust, you'd expect to see some customer dissatisfaction.' Tranter said he would have expected Trump's approval rating to be lower than it is given how chaotically the market has reacted to Trump's moves on the economy, owing to continued solid support among Republicans. 'The markets probably had a more violent reaction than his approval rating has on some of these policies,' he said. 'So what that tells me is, the electorate, specifically his core base, is giving him some breathing room to see how this all plays out.' In Stirewalt's average, Trump's approval stands at 43.6 percent and disapproval at 51.6 percent, a net approval of –8 points. That's down about 1 point from last week and 2 points from last month. Meanwhile, other polling on those around Trump may also raise concern. The favorability rating for Musk, whom Democrats have sought to home in on as a target in building backlash to the administration, has a worse net favorability rating than Trump, with 53.6 percent viewing him unfavorably and 40.3 percent viewing him favorably. Tranter said Musk is 'equally as toxic' to Democratic voters as Trump, which gives them another 'punching bag' to raise money and enthuse the base. He said if their unfavorable rating gets above the roughly 53 percent it's at now, then it could be more harmful to the GOP's prospects for the midterms. 'Then I think it gets real interesting because that means that he's really pissing off independents, which are the swing voters that the Republicans need to keep some of these House seats,' he said. Vance is in a slightly better spot but still underwater by about 9 points. A plurality in the average briefly said the country was heading in the right direction in mid-February, but a majority has said it's heading in the wrong direction since early last month. For the past two decades, a majority of voters have almost without interruption said the country is on the wrong track, through multiple presidential administrations from different parties. Republicans enjoyed an advantage in the generic congressional ballot, a broad indicator of how the next congressional elections may go, for the first two months of Trump's term, but Democrats have taken a slight lead since then. But Tranter urged caution about taking too much away for what this means for the midterms Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
24-04-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Trouble signs emerge for Trump in DDHQ/The Hill polling average
President Trump has seen his favorability ratings start to take a hit in the first three months of his presidency amid growing criticism of his handling of the economy and various controversies, according to the initial polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. The averages show that Trump is currently underwater after starting his term in January with a net positive approval rating. DDHQ/The Hill's average had his approval rating above 50 percent for the first days of his presidency. By late April, his average approval rating had fallen under 45 percent. The averages suggest Trump could fall deeper underwater as he reaches the 100-day mark next week. 'The Democrats should be cautiously optimistic,' said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. 'They're having a very good batting practice, but we haven't reached the first inning of the game yet. 'The Republicans, they're not having the greatest start,' he added. 'It's not as bad as the first quarter was, in terms of this favorability, approval rating from the first term. So he's doing better than the first term. And there's quite a bit to play out in over the next 18 months.' DDHQ is maintaining six polling averages measuring Trump's approval rating and favorability rating, Vice President Vance's favorability rating, Elon Musk's favorability rating, the generic congressional ballot and whether voters feel the country is on the right or wrong track. As a whole, the numbers point to some troubling signs for Trump and the GOP as an early indicator of what to expect for next year's midterm elections. Trump was almost never above water during his first term in office, but he seemed to be initially in his second term. That hasn't lasted. The average on Wednesday showed Trump with a disapproval rating of 51.7 percent, the highest of his second term so far. On personal favorability, Trump also started out above water in DDHQ's average but has mostly been in the net negative since early February. The average shows 53 percent view Trump unfavorably and 44.5 percent view him favorably, both also setting the mark for his second term so far. The most prominent aspect likely driving the decline may be the economy, an issue that has been one of the president's greatest strengths since his first run for president in 2016. But recent polling has shown more voters viewing Trump's handling of the economy unfavorably than favorably, or breaking even at best, as he has carried out his wide-ranging tariff policy. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday found Trump's approval on the economy at 37 percent, the lowest rating of either of his terms. The poll came after significant economic turmoil, particularly in the stock and bond markets, before Trump announced a 90-day pause on what would have been his steepest tariffs yet. Several polls have shown that Trump's trade policy and use of tariffs is unpopular outside of his Republican base and many expect they could harm the economy. The Hill's Chris Stirewalt noted in his column last week that most presidents experience a 'honeymoon phase' that lasts for several months before political reality sets in. But he argued that Trump's position is less fluid than most of his predecessors because he's been in the Oval Office before. Presidents have historically had weaker approval ratings in their second terms than their first. 'So, it's a pretty straightforward story. The second-term president who had developed a strong brand on economic performance undertakes a program of economic pain he promises will deliver long-term gain,' Stirewalt wrote. 'If the neighborhood pizza place your family had been visiting every week started putting kale in the crust, you'd expect to see some customer dissatisfaction.' Tranter said he would have expected Trump's approval rating to be lower than it is given how chaotically the market has reacted to Trump's moves on the economy, owing to continued solid support among Republicans. 'The markets probably had a more violent reaction than his approval rating has on some of these policies,' he said. 'So what that tells me is, the electorate, specifically his core base, is giving him some breathing room to see how this all plays out.' In Stirewalt's average, Trump's approval stands at 43.6 percent and disapproval at 51.6 percent, a net approval of –8 points. That's down about 1 point from last week and 2 points from last month. Meanwhile, other polling on those around Trump may also raise concern. The favorability rating for Musk, whom Democrats have sought to home in on as a target in building backlash to the administration, has a worse net favorability rating than Trump, with 53.6 percent viewing him unfavorably and 40.3 percent viewing him favorably. Tranter said Musk is 'equally as toxic' to Democratic voters as Trump, which gives them another 'punching bag' to raise money and enthuse the base. He said if their unfavorable rating gets above the roughly 53 percent it's at now, then it could be more harmful to the GOP's prospects for the midterms. 'Then I think it gets real interesting because that means that he's really pissing off independents, which are the swing voters that the Republicans need to keep some of these House seats,' he said. Vance is in a slightly better spot but still underwater by about 9 points. 2024 Election Coverage A plurality in the average briefly said the country was heading in the right direction in mid-February, but a majority has said it's heading in the wrong direction since early last month. For the past two decades, a majority of voters have almost without interruption said the country is on the wrong track, through multiple presidential administrations from different parties. Republicans enjoyed an advantage in the generic congressional ballot, a broad indicator of how the next congressional elections may go, for the first two months of Trump's term, but Democrats have taken a slight lead since then. But Tranter urged caution about taking too much away for what this means for the midterms 'If you're playing a baseball game, this is [Democrats] having a really good batting practice right before the game starts,' he said.
