18-03-2025
Number of Scots with chronic liver disease expected to rise by 54 percent
The number of people in Scotland living with chronic liver disease is expected to increase by 54% by 2044.
It equates to an additional 23,100 people living with chronic liver disease in 2044, compared to 2019.
It currently stands at 43,200 cases and figures released by Public Health Scotland expect it to rise to 66,300.
It is believed work could be done to ensure this projected increases could be prevented at all levels.
Recent trends have illustrated the rate of hospital stays for chronic liver disease increased by 12% from 2013/14 to 2022/23 but the mortality rate decreased by the same percentage.
Early diagnosis can reduce the impact and reducing exposure to risk factors such as alcohol use, obesity and hepatitis B and C is important.
Dr Alastair MacGilchrist, Chair of Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems, said: 'Today's estimate by PHS predicts that by 2044, there will be a rise of over 50% in chronic liver disease in Scotland, placing a huge burden on our already-struggling NHS.
'Over 70% of this liver disease burden is due to alcohol, and these figures underline the severity of the public health emergency from alcohol that Scotland is facing, with the latest figures showing alcohol is directly responsible for 1,277 deaths annually.
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'Such an increase in liver disease is not inevitable. Public health measures to reduce alcohol consumption will help. Minimum unit pricing is already reducing the level of harm, but the Scottish Government needs to do more such as restrict alcohol marketing.
'There are many missed opportunities to intervene to reduce heavy alcohol intake before liver damage occurs. Like cancer, liver disease is often silent until it has reached an advanced, incurable stage, and so, just like cancer, early detection is vital.
'We now have the tools to do this and early detection of liver disease in at-risk individuals such as heavy drinkers needs to become routine practice.
'Today's PHS figures are a call to action. If we introduce public health preventative measures and make early detection and treatment of both heavy drinking and liver disease routine, we can prevent this huge rise in liver disease. But we need to act now.'
More than 70% of chronic liver disease is caused by alcohol and the percentage of liver disease deaths where alcohol was the primary cause has almost doubled since 1982.
Laura Mahon, Deputy Chief Executive of Alcohol Focus Scotland said: 'These shocking figures once again highlight the fact that Scotland is in the grip of ongoing alcohol emergency, which is only likely to worsen without a genuine emergency response.
'Alcohol-specific deaths have reached a 15-year high. Alcohol-related liver disease is responsible for most of these deaths, with 805 people lost to this disease in 2023. It is a silent killer, which can affect people over the long-term, often showing no obvious symptoms until it's too late. Just regularly drinking over 14 units per week increases your risk of developing liver disease.
'It doesn't have to be this way. Each of these deaths is entirely preventable, and there are a range of well evidenced and cost-effective prevention measures available which could be adopted.
'These include increased use of non-invasive liver scans to enable those at high risk to be identified sooner and provided with care and support to address their liver problem and their alcohol use. Restrictions on alcohol marketing and introducing clear health warning labels on alcohol products should form part of a new comprehensive alcohol strategy.
'Not only would these measures save thousands of lives, they would also substantially reduce the financial pressures on our health service, ultimately delivering better healthcare for everyone.'
