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TSMC effect: Phoenix's northwest valley sees commercial real estate boom
TSMC effect: Phoenix's northwest valley sees commercial real estate boom

Business Journals

time24-04-2025

  • Business
  • Business Journals

TSMC effect: Phoenix's northwest valley sees commercial real estate boom

While some parts of Phoenix's industrial market soften, the Deer Valley submarket is bucking the trend as semiconductor-related companies flock to the area. Story Highlights TSMC's $165 billion campus drives industrial growth in Phoenix Northwest Valley submarket sees low vacancy rates and high demand Suppliers and contractors are keen on the Deer Valley area near TSMC As goes TSMC, so goes Phoenix's industrial real estate market. Suppliers continue to gravitate to the Valley, angling to position themselves in the orbit of TSMC's ever-growing, $165 billion campus in North Phoenix. And while more industrial supply is set to come online in north Phoenix in the years to come — the $7 billion Halo Vista master-planned community could bring millions of square feet on its own — for the time being, experts suggest that limited supply in the Northwest Valley industrial submarket is keeping lease rates high and vacancy rates low. The submarket, which includes the TSMC complex and the popular Deer Valley area, is one of Phoenix's most desirable locales for industrial tenants. The metro's industrial vacancy rate climbed to 12.2% in the first quarter even as building deliveries dropped 37.1% year-over-year to 7.4 million square feet, according to a recent report from CBRE. But the Northwest Valley submarket saw its vacancy rate drop 40 basis points 'as Deer Valley continues to draw attention caused by TSMC's investment announcement,' the CBRE report found. Overall, the under-construction pipeline in the Valley has slipped to 11.1 million square feet during the first quarter, which is the lowest total since the first quarter of 2021. Despite the attention on Deer Valley, only 10% of the of the industrial space under construction in Phoenix — just shy of 1.1 million square feet — is situated in the Northwest Valley. Meanwhile, 80% of the industrial construction activity is situated in either the Southwest Valley or Southeast Valley, CBRE found. How TSMC effect is playing out for tenants The lack of projects in the immediate pipeline, combined with the promise of billions of dollars in investments from TSMC, has created a wealth of opportunity in the Northwest Valley submarket. 'TSMC has had a dramatic effect on not just sublease, but the entire market. It has increased demand meaningfully,' said Jonathan Keyser, managing partner of Scottsdale-based tenant representation firm Keyser Commercial Real Estate. expand Jonathan Keyser, founder of Keyser Commercial Real Estate, pictured in 2019. Jim Poulin | Phoenix Business Journal The Arizona Commerce Authority currently has 336 manufacturers in its pipeline of businesses looking to expand or relocate to the state, including more than 50 semiconductor-related companies. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Deer Valley Airport estimated in 2023 that the surrounding area will see about 7.4 million square feet of demand for logistics warehouses, flex industrial and flex office by 2028. Keyser imagines a scenario where the whole northwest Valley will eventually 'morph together' into a huge, semiconductor-heavy submarket. 'It's not going to happen immediately, but there's a lot of demand and there's a lot of interest in that area,' he said. 'So yeah, I'm very bullish on it.' TSMC will be at the heart of the growth, he added. 'I truly believe that TSMC deciding to put their most advanced manufacturing in Arizona is the biggest thing to ever happen to Arizona in the history of our state from an economic development standpoint,' Keyser said. 'I think most people do not realize the outsized impact that's going to have. Them picking Arizona basically made Arizona the center of the universe when it comes to chips." While Keyser's firm has been representing semiconductor companies for years, the Valley's reputation in the industry has suddenly exploded. "Now everyone is calling us 'the chip guys,'" he said. 'It's all directly related to TSMC.' Keyser said the commercial real estate market includes 'very large users' alongside smaller users and other companies seeking an initial first phase trial before deciding whether to engage in a larger expansion in the area. 'There's some that already have contracts with TSMC and Intel and others, and there's others that are looking to use this as a way to get contracts,' Keyser said. Increased focus on Deer Valley submarket While Keyser said clients are interested in space throughout the Valley, he noted that his firm has also engaged with Mack Real Estate on behalf of clients interested in Halo Vista, once that project gets up and running. 'We're in discussions with them with multiple users that want to be a part of that,' he said. Sunbelt Investment Holdings Inc. is another company that has invested considerably in the Deer Valley submarket. The first phase of the company's Deer Valley Business Campus spans about 255,000 square feet and is mostly leased out, said Robert Harding, industrial development manager at SIHI. Harding said the company, which has another 80-100 developable acres east of Deer Valley Business Campus, has seen a mix of tenants interested in acquiring space in the submarket. 'A lot of our activity is either a supplier of TSMC or it's a contractor of TSMC, or potentially contractors that just know they are going to be in the area for a while," Harding said. Beyond TSMC's presence, one of the main benefits of the Deer Valley submarket is access to the entire Valley through both I-17 and the Loop 101. 'The fundamentals of the Deer Valley submarket in particular have stayed fairly strong and consistent for the past year or two," Harding said. "Obviously industrial in general saw a massive boom in the past three, four years since Covid. But the Deer Valley submarket in particular has been strong, where you may have seen some weakness in some of the other markets." Clint Hardison, co-founder of IKE Commercial Real Estate, said his firm has had 'several requirements up in the Deer Valley submarket.' 'We have had clients come along that are wanting to come to the Valley because of TSMC,' he said. 'So that has happened, but I have not seen a lot of them wanting to be anything other than right up there in that Deer Valley submarket.' expand Clint Hardison, co-founder of Ike Commercial Real Estate. Ike Commercial Real Estate Hardison noted that the growing interest in Deer Valley can create opportunities for landlords throughout the West Valley as the price delta between submarkets continues to grow. He suggested 'it could make a lot of sense' for users to gravitate to industrial space in cities such as Goodyear and Tolleson, adding that landlords in those submarkets are likely to be more aggressive than what their asking rates suggest. That means tenants can hunt deals in certain parts of the West Valley as vacancy rates continue to rise in the metro. 'When you actually get down to brass tacks in negotiations, there are landlords out there who are getting a little bit desperate,' he said. 'They will offer deals that they would not have even thought about offering 12 months ago.' Sign up here for the Phoenix Business Journal's free newsletters, and download our free app for breaking news alerts.

What's that building under construction in Goodyear's downtown GSQ district
What's that building under construction in Goodyear's downtown GSQ district

Yahoo

time24-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

What's that building under construction in Goodyear's downtown GSQ district

Location: At 1800 N. Civic Square, on the northeast side of the McDowell intersection in downtown Goodyear. Description: A new medical office for Banner Health is being built within Goodyear's new civic square, or Goodyear GSQ. Real estate developer Ryan Companies US Inc. is constructing the 62,475-square-foot medical outpatient building in collaboration with Globe Corp., the owner and developer of GSQ. Banner Health's new digs are the first medical project to get underway in the new and expanding downtown district that generally sits north of McDowell, between 150th Drive and Bullard Avenue. The building will neighbor Goodyear's City Hall, library, parking garage and 2-acre community park, as well as a handful of existing and soon-to-open restaurants. It will also be Banner Health's first large, multispecialty health center in the city. Inside, the medical provider will offer primary care, orthopedic, cardiovascular and onsite lab and imaging services. History: After decades of working to create a downtown corridor in the city, Goodyear partnered with Globe to bring the concept to life on roughly 150 acres of former farmland north of Interstate 10. In 2021, the city and the Scottsdale-based real estate investment company broke ground on a 47-acre swath of the land to construct Goodyear's government buildings and park. A handful of restaurants soon followed, with others on the way. Much more development, including retail, a hotel and multi-family housing, will soon neighbor the existing Harkins Theatres near the eastern edge of the site, where an ill-fated mall project fizzled after nearly two decades of planning. When will the work be done? Banner Health's medical office is anticipated to wrap up construction by the third quarter of 2025. Like this story? Get more West Valley news straight into your email inbox by signing up for our free weekly West Valley Newsletter, which comes out on Tuesdays. Is there something under construction you'd like to tell us about or find out more about? Contact the reporter. Shawn Raymundo covers the West Valley cities of Avondale, Buckeye, Glendale, Goodyear, Peoria and Surprise. Reach him at sraymundo@ or follow him on X @ShawnzyTsunami. This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Banner Health expanding to downtown Goodyear with new medical office

GOP's 1,000-voter precinct plan would cost Arizona counties $53 million
GOP's 1,000-voter precinct plan would cost Arizona counties $53 million

Yahoo

time23-04-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

GOP's 1,000-voter precinct plan would cost Arizona counties $53 million

Photo via Getty Images A Republican proposal to force voters to cast their ballots at neighborhood voting sites would cost Arizona counties more than $50 million the first year and more than $20 million every election year. And the plan to limit those voting precincts to just 1,000 voters means counties would have to find nearly 4,000 new voting locations. Jen Marson, executive director of the Arizona Association of Counties, has repeatedly told lawmakers that the proposal would put a financial burden on the counties and would be logistically impossible to implement. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX Earlier this year, Rep. Alexander Kolodin, a Scottsdale Republican, told the Arizona Mirror that he didn't necessarily believe it when county representatives told him and other members of the House Elections Committee that some of their election reform plans would be too costly and difficult to carry out. Kolodin and other supporters of 1,000-voter precincts have claimed that it would cut down on long lines and sidestep printer problems that occurred during the 2022 election in Maricopa County. Kolodin also said that it would make voting more convenient for voters in his Scottsdale-based district, because precincts would be located close to home, within their neighborhoods. But legislative budget analysts have confirmed the accuracy of the numbers that spurred the Arizona Association of Counties to oppose House Concurrent Resolution 2002. 'I'm not worried when people say that they don't trust our numbers because I know that they're right,' Marson told the Arizona Mirror. 'I just don't have time to worry about people who choose not to believe the facts.' The Joint Legislative Budget Committee wrote in an April 11 fiscal note that information submitted by the Arizona Association of Counties showed that HCR2002 would cost the counties a total of around $53 million in its first election year and more than $21 million each election year after that. 'It's not a surprise to us at all,' Marson said of the fiscal impact outlined by the JLBC. 'We've been saying for years that a move in this direction is incredibly costly in terms of manpower and dollars.' The initial cost would include about $31.5 million for new equipment at each of the 3,957 additional voting locations the counties would be forced to open, an estimate that JLBC said 'appeared generally reasonable.' The estimate accounts for around $8,000 to purchase electronic poll books, which cost around $1,400 each, and devices for voters with disabilities to use, which cost about $3,700 apiece. If the resolution became law, each primary and general election after that would cost the counties around $10.8 million to rent out voting locations and pay seven workers to staff each site. Because there is a primary and general election, that means there would be an additional $21.6 million cost to the counties every election year. The budget analysts wrote that counties could potentially see some offsetting savings from the legislation's elimination of early voting locations and emergency voting centers, but those would likely be miniscule in comparison to the increases. 'I think it's a huge impact cost-wise, regardless of county,' Marson said. The resolution would ask voters to enact the precinct-only voting scheme in 2026, and is a mirror of House Bill 2017, which would directly make the change in state law. Both were introduced by Rep. Rachel Keshel, a Tucson Republican and member of the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus. Both have already been approved along party lines in the House of Representatives and could be brought for a vote in the Senate at any time. But HB2017 would almost certainly meet its end with a veto from Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. HCR2002 is a workaround that would bypass Hobbs' desk to be sent to the ballot. Both of Keshel's proposals would ban the use of voting centers and require all in-person voters to cast their ballots at precincts capped at 1,000 registered voters apiece. Most counties use voting centers, which allow any registered voter to show up and cast a ballot at any polling site in the county. Under the precinct model, only voters assigned to a precinct can vote there, and if they vote at the wrong location, their ballot won't be counted. If they became law, the proposals would force a significant shift for the counties, since eight of them — including Maricopa and Pima, where 75% of voters live — use only vote centers. Four more use a hybrid system with both vote centers and precincts. Only three counties use precincts exclusively. Keshel's proposal would require Maricopa County alone to open more than 2,400 new voting locations and to hire more than 17,000 additional poll workers. In the 2024 general election, Maricopa County operated 246 Election Day vote centers and hired more than 4,000 workers. In 2016, the last time Maricopa County used only precinct-based polling places, it had 671 polling sites. 'We are confident we would not be able to find enough locations or people,' Marson said. 'We struggle to staff 245 vote centers, so a tenfold staffing increase seems undoable.' Both proposals are repeats that Keshel introduced last year but that failed in the Senate, where former Secretary of State Ken Bennett was the only Republican who voted against it. Keshel said during a Jan. 22 House Federalism, Military Affairs and Elections Committee meeting that she was hopeful her proposals would make it through the chamber this year, since Bennett was not reelected. Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap, a Republican and former state representative who supported last year's version of the 1,000-voter precinct cap, acknowledged during a January committee hearing that it would be a challenge to implement. Heap, who was a former member of the Freedom Caucus, said that a 1,500-voter cap might be more realistic in Maricopa County. Senate President Warren Petersen did not respond to questions about whether legislators in the chamber were supportive of bringing HCR2002 to the floor for a vote, following the confirmation of the increased cost to the counties from JLBC. Legislative Republicans and Democrats, along with the governor, are in a political battle over funding for the state's Division of Developmental Disabilities, which will run out April 30. The DDD needs $122 million in supplemental funding to get it through the end of the fiscal year on June 30, but both parties have been fighting since January about how to accomplish that. Some Republicans have said they are dedicated to cutting programs that parents of children with disabilities say are vital, while the nearly 60,000 people with disabilities and their families who rely on DDD face the potential loss of services in May. All of the House Republicans who are advocating for cuts to the DDD program that accounted for a large chunk of the funding gap voted in favor of Keshel's proposal before JLBC published its fiscal note. Neither of Keshel's proposals include funding for the added costs to the counties. Keshel didn't respond to a request for comment on the fiscal note. 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