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Miami Herald
07-04-2025
- Sport
- Miami Herald
With public backing Florida, sportsbooks pull for Houston
Duke's dramatic exit from the NCAA Tournament was a big win for most sportsbooks, and they can cap March Madness with another big win if Houston can upset Florida in Monday night's championship game. Florida was a consensus 1.0-point favorite by mid-day Monday, but the Gators have been the top two most-backed teams to win the title since the tournament began. The other? That was Duke, which bowed out after losing a 14-point lead against Houston on Saturday night. The Gators opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the Cougars at many sportsbooks. That includes BetMGM, where Florida has been backed by 61 percent of the spread-line bets and 53 percent of the money. Meanwhile, BetRivers reported on Monday that 60 and 58 percent of the spread-line action, respectively, has supported the Gators. Florida opened at +4000 at BetMGM to win the national championship. Those odds had shrunk to +325 before the tournament began and sat at -115 on Monday. By comparison, Houston has seen its odds shrink from +1400 to +600 ahead of the tournament and to -105 the day of the title game. BetMGM has taken a $100,000 bet on Florida at +900 to win the title, with the largest bet backing Houston a $50,000 wager at +600. BetRivers took a $700 futures wager on Florida at +5000 that would pay out $35,000 with a Gators victory on Monday night. "Duke losing in the Final Four was a great result for BetMGM. The sportsbook is cheering for Houston to upset Florida in the championship game," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. PROP PICKS --Walter Clayton Over 19.5 Points (-140 at BetMGM): Coming off a 34-point game in the Gators' Final Four win over Auburn and with Duke's Cooper Flagg out of the picture, Clayton is now the +100 favorite to win the tournament's Most Outstanding Player award. The senior also poured in 30 against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight after averaging 19.7 points through Florida's first three tournament games. --Over 140.5 Total Points (-105 at BetRivers): Florida has averaged 84.4 points per game during the tournament in running its streak of games with at least 77 points to 18, and each of the Gators' past eight NCAA Tournament games have produced at least 145 points, according to the book. Houston hasn't been as high scoring, averaging 72 points during its run to the title game, but the Cougars did manage to produce 70 points against Duke's lengthy defense. KEY STAT The Gators have won the first half in 15 of their past 18 non-conference games. THE NEWS Houston (35-4), which has won 18 straight, has designs on making 69-year-old Kelvin Sampson the oldest coach to win an NCAA championship. Sampson is the architect of the Cougars' system focused on defense, rebounding and toughness, though this year's group also leads the nation in 3-point shooting (39.9 percent) thanks to guards LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp (12.8 ppg) and Milos Uzan (11.5 ppg). "Last night, I got so many texts," Sampson said on Sunday. "I saw Tubby (Smith) and Rick Barnes, Tom Izzo, (Gregg Popovich), a bunch of the older coaches. They all kind of had similar messages to me: Win one for the old guys, something like that." To do so, Houston and its national-best defense will have to solve an athletic and analytic juggernaut developed by one of Division I's youngest head coaches, 39-year-old Todd Golden. The Gators (35-4) feature not only the third-most efficient offense in the KenPom era -- averaging 128.8 points per 100 possessions, just shy of Duke's 130.0 rating -- but they also boast the NCAA Tournament's hottest player in senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. When Florida needed to rally from 10 points down to Texas Tech with five minutes to play in the West Region final on March 29, Clayton reeled off 13 of his game-high 30 points. When Florida needed to come back from eight points down to Auburn in Saturday's semifinal, the first-team All-American poured in 20 of his career-high 34. "Having someone's that such an elite threat to score with the ball in his hands at all times," Golden said, "obviously makes everybody else so dangerous as well." Auburn rarely figured out a way to get the ball out of Clayton's hands during crunch time. He produced a crucial 3-pointer and a three-point play down the stretch when the Tigers got as close as one point. With that in mind, Golden expects Houston's group of agile and physical defenders -- even big men J'Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler have the ability to stay with guards -- to double Clayton and make him give up the ball. "Their defense worries me a lot, absolutely," Golden said with a laugh. "You look at a guy like Tugler, Roberts, they have incredible length and athleticism and physicality inside the paint. They wear you down, make it really, really hard on you." If Clayton (18.5 ppg, 4.1 apg) can't put up 18 shots like he did Saturday, then he'll move the ball to senior guards Alijah Martin (14.6 ppg) and Will Richard (13.2 ppg) and big men Alex Condon (10.5 ppg) and Thomas Haugh (9.9 ppg). Florida, which has won 11 in a row, has returned to the NCAA championship game for the first time since Billy Donovan's Gators won back-to-back crowns in 2006-07. The sportsbooks favor Florida by 1 or 1.5 points while the predictive analytics (such as KenPom) suggest Houston should win by 1. In other words, this one has all the earmarks of turning into the first NCAA title game that comes down to the last shot since Virginia and Texas Tech needed overtime to settle the 2019 championship. "Big-picture goal is going to make them take tough twos, (then) fight like hell to get the rebound," Golden said. "Every rebound we get is going to feel like we won the game, I feel like. If we can do a good job of keeping them off the boards, we'll give ourselves a chance." THEY SAID IT "I'm sure (Olajuwon) poured his heart and soul into this program, just like a lot of the guys that came before us. We're standing on those guys' shoulders, everyone who came before us. It would mean a lot to get this done. Not only for us, but for them." --Cryer --Field Level Media Field Level Media 2023 - All Rights Reserved
Reuters
07-04-2025
- Sport
- Reuters
With public backing Florida, sportsbooks pull for Houston
April 7 - Duke's dramatic exit from the NCAA Tournament was a big win for most sportsbooks, and they can cap March Madness with another big win if Houston can upset Florida in Monday night's championship game. Florida was a consensus 1.0-point favorite by mid-day Monday, but the Gators have been the top two most-backed teams to win the title since the tournament began. The other? That was Duke, which bowed out after losing a 14-point lead against Houston on Saturday night. The Gators opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the Cougars at many sportsbooks. That includes BetMGM, where Florida has been backed by 61 percent of the spread-line bets and 53 percent of the money. Meanwhile, BetRivers reported on Monday that 60 and 58 percent of the spread-line action, respectively, has supported the Gators. Florida opened at +4000 at BetMGM to win the national championship. Those odds had shrunk to +325 before the tournament began and sat at -115 on Monday. By comparison, Houston has seen its odds shrink from +1400 to +600 ahead of the tournament and to -105 the day of the title game. BetMGM has taken a $100,000 bet on Florida at +900 to win the title, with the largest bet backing Houston a $50,000 wager at +600. BetRivers took a $700 futures wager on Florida at +5000 that would pay out $35,000 with a Gators victory on Monday night. "Duke losing in the Final Four was a great result for BetMGM. The sportsbook is cheering for Houston to upset Florida in the championship game," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. PROP PICKS --Walter Clayton Over 19.5 Points (-140 at BetMGM): Coming off a 34-point game in the Gators' Final Four win over Auburn and with Duke's Cooper Flagg out of the picture, Clayton is now the +100 favorite to win the tournament's Most Outstanding Player award. The senior also poured in 30 against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight after averaging 19.7 points through Florida's first three tournament games. --Over 140.5 Total Points (-105 at BetRivers): Florida has averaged 84.4 points per game during the tournament in running its streak of games with at least 77 points to 18, and each of the Gators' past eight NCAA Tournament games have produced at least 145 points, according to the book. Houston hasn't been as high scoring, averaging 72 points during its run to the title game, but the Cougars did manage to produce 70 points against Duke's lengthy defense. KEY STAT The Gators have won the first half in 15 of their past 18 non-conference games. THE NEWS Houston (35-4), which has won 18 straight, has designs on making 69-year-old Kelvin Sampson the oldest coach to win an NCAA championship. Sampson is the architect of the Cougars' system focused on defense, rebounding and toughness, though this year's group also leads the nation in 3-point shooting (39.9 percent) thanks to guards LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp (12.8 ppg) and Milos Uzan (11.5 ppg). "Last night, I got so many texts," Sampson said on Sunday. "I saw Tubby (Smith) and Rick Barnes, Tom Izzo, (Gregg Popovich), a bunch of the older coaches. They all kind of had similar messages to me: Win one for the old guys, something like that." To do so, Houston and its national-best defense will have to solve an athletic and analytic juggernaut developed by one of Division I's youngest head coaches, 39-year-old Todd Golden. The Gators (35-4) feature not only the third-most efficient offense in the KenPom era -- averaging 128.8 points per 100 possessions, just shy of Duke's 130.0 rating -- but they also boast the NCAA Tournament's hottest player in senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. When Florida needed to rally from 10 points down to Texas Tech with five minutes to play in the West Region final on March 29, Clayton reeled off 13 of his game-high 30 points. When Florida needed to come back from eight points down to Auburn in Saturday's semifinal, the first-team All-American poured in 20 of his career-high 34. "Having someone's that such an elite threat to score with the ball in his hands at all times," Golden said, "obviously makes everybody else so dangerous as well." Auburn rarely figured out a way to get the ball out of Clayton's hands during crunch time. He produced a crucial 3-pointer and a three-point play down the stretch when the Tigers got as close as one point. With that in mind, Golden expects Houston's group of agile and physical defenders -- even big men J'Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler have the ability to stay with guards -- to double Clayton and make him give up the ball. "Their defense worries me a lot, absolutely," Golden said with a laugh. "You look at a guy like Tugler, Roberts, they have incredible length and athleticism and physicality inside the paint. They wear you down, make it really, really hard on you." If Clayton (18.5 ppg, 4.1 apg) can't put up 18 shots like he did Saturday, then he'll move the ball to senior guards Alijah Martin (14.6 ppg) and Will Richard (13.2 ppg) and big men Alex Condon (10.5 ppg) and Thomas Haugh (9.9 ppg). Florida, which has won 11 in a row, has returned to the NCAA championship game for the first time since Billy Donovan's Gators won back-to-back crowns in 2006-07. The sportsbooks favor Florida by 1 or 1.5 points while the predictive analytics (such as KenPom) suggest Houston should win by 1. In other words, this one has all the earmarks of turning into the first NCAA title game that comes down to the last shot since Virginia and Texas Tech needed overtime to settle the 2019 championship. "Big-picture goal is going to make them take tough twos, (then) fight like hell to get the rebound," Golden said. "Every rebound we get is going to feel like we won the game, I feel like. If we can do a good job of keeping them off the boards, we'll give ourselves a chance." THEY SAID IT "I'm sure (Olajuwon) poured his heart and soul into this program, just like a lot of the guys that came before us. We're standing on those guys' shoulders, everyone who came before us. It would mean a lot to get this done. Not only for us, but for them." --Cryer
New York Times
03-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Bettors buying Duke over Houston: ‘The public keeps betting them up'
This March Madness hasn't exactly lived up to the latter part of its name. The latest chalk parade occurred last week in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, with favorites winning all 12 of those contests. Now we find ourselves with all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four for the second time ever. From a betting perspective, these were also the teams with the shortest odds to win the national title at BetMGM before the tournament tipped off — Duke and Florida were the +350 co-favorites, with Auburn following at +425 and Houston at +625. Advertisement While favorites have been winning left and right, they weren't as dominant against the spread over the past two rounds, with a 7-5 record on that front. But was that enough for sportsbooks to scrape together a profit on those four days? 'I don't think this tournament has been the worst for us; last year's tournament felt worse,' said Seamus Magee, trading manager at BetMGM. 'We lost a chunk on moneyline parlays this week. But something that helped was some favorites didn't cover, so we got some back there. More importantly, there wasn't really a Cinderella team like NC State last year where their moneyline liability really piled up.' Speaking of liabilities, several sportsbooks relayed to The Athletic that Duke has easily been the most popular wager for the NCAA tournament, whether it's game action or title futures. Johnny Avello, the race and sports operations director at DraftKings, compared the Duke action to UConn's last year for March Madness and added that 'bettors don't even really care where the number is at this point; they're just going to continue to bet Duke.' Before the tournament started, Hard Rock Bet told The Athletic that over 36 percent of all championship bets were on Florida, which makes sense, considering Hard Rock is the only legal sportsbook operating in Florida. Since the tournament tipped off, however, Duke has edged out Florida for most title bets over that span, including the Blue Devils racking up 60 percent more bets than the Gators since Saturday night's Elite Eight slate. The biggest reported championship wager from any sportsbook is also on Duke, as BetMGM took a $500,000 bet on the Blue Devils back when they were priced at +350. That bettor would win $1.75 million if Duke wins its sixth national title in program history. 'Duke is for sure the king right now,' said Nick Bogdanovich, manager at Circa Sportsbook. 'They're just playing so well, and the public keeps betting them up. My number calls for them to be a 2.5-point favorite against Houston, and they're -5. I thought when we opened that game at Duke -4.5 that that was high, but I could tell early on that our next number was going to be -5 instead of -4. I have a feeling we'll be going to -5.5 before going back to -4.5. There's just been no shortage of Duke money.' Advertisement ESPN Bet was one of the first sportsbooks to move to Duke -5.5 and has shared that 73 percent of moneyline tickets and 78 percent of spread money are on the favorite. Over at BetMGM, Duke to cover the spread (still -4.5) against Houston has received the most bets at the sportsbook among all Final Four wagers. When just looking at all spread bets placed for that clash at BetMGM, the Blue Devils have captured 70 percent of the tickets as well as 72 percent of the money. 'The public isn't really sold on Houston for whatever reason,' said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook. 'I don't know whether it's because in the past few years they've had really good teams but haven't lived up to expectations with a couple of Sweet 16 exits. In the Elite Eight, we were rooting for Houston because a lot of the public came in on Tennessee for that game. We're looking at it the same way here, that they're going to be on Duke.' In the other Final Four matchup, Florida opened as the 2.5-point favorite over Auburn at several sportsbooks, and most of them have not budged off that number so far this week. BetMGM reported that 62 percent of the tickets and 55 percent of the money among all spread bets for Florida-Auburn have been on the Gators. Leading up to that all-SEC showdown, the big question is what version of Johni Broome we'll see after he suffered a hyperextended elbow in the Elite Eight against Michigan State. While multiple sportsbooks told me that spread betting has been balanced so far for Florida-Auburn despite Broome missing a couple of practices this week, bettors have zeroed in on a different angle for this clash — the under. At BetMGM, 72 percent of the money on the Florida-Auburn total has been wagered on the under and has led to the total moving from 161.5 to 159.5. It's been an even bigger swing at DraftKings, where the total has cratered from 164.5 to 159.5. Advertisement 'We didn't make an adjustment to that Florida-Auburn line for Broome's health,' Avello said. 'We saw him come back in the game after he got hurt, and he has a whole week to recover. For the move on the total, I think unders are hitting at about a 57 percent or 58 percent clip so far this tournament, and people will bet on what they've been seeing. I think the handicap has also been that these two are familiar with one another since they've already played this season, and there's a little more tightness in a game like this since they're so close to the championship.' (Photo by Elsa / Getty Images)
New York Times
01-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Sportsbooks unphased by new torpedo bats: ‘We don't do any knee-jerk reactions'
Torpedo bats have taken the baseball world by storm this season, with the New York Yankees unleashing them against the Milwaukee Brewers to start the season and smashing an MLB-record 15 home runs over their first three games. The Yankees scored four runs on Opening Day before exploding for 20 and 12 runs, respectively, in their final two games against the Brewers. It's been runs galore for the Bronx Bombers, leading us to the question: Have sportsbooks noticed any early betting patterns with the popular new bats? Advertisement For those of you who haven't read about the bat yet, simply put, it's a bat designed by an MIT-educated physicist that redistributes its weight from its end to the area where hitters usually make contact with the baseball — around 7-8 inches below its tip. As a result, you get a bat that looks more like a bowling pin and has a thicker sweet spot. Combine that bigger barrel look going viral on social media with bettors seeing a ton of runs scored and a lot of dingers, and you get the perfect storm of people betting overs. According to Pikkit, an app that allows sports bettors to sync their sportsbook accounts, just 42.5 percent of all Brewers-Yankees total bets that it tracked on Opening Day came in on the over (that over/under closed at 8). In the series finale on Sunday, with the total closing at 8.5, 49.8 percent of those bets on the total tracked were on the over. But it's been a completely different story heading into Tuesday night's Yankees game. Pikkit shared that a whopping 90.5 percent of the bets on the Diamondbacks-Yankees total (currently over/under 8.5) are on the over. While bettors are rushing to back the Yankees and overs, bookmakers seem unfazed. 'We started seeing some more over money on the Yankees in that third game against the Brewers,' said Johnny Avello, race and sports operations director at DraftKings. 'That's just bettors following a trend, and they will continue to follow it if it holds up. We don't do any knee-jerk reactions on a smaller sample size like three games. The total against the Diamondbacks and Corbin Burnes is still at 8.5 [for tonight], so obviously, we haven't made any crazy adjustments.' Some sportsbooks are even jumping in on the fun with new offerings leaning into the craze. DraftKings now has a tab under the MLB section of its sportsbook app labeled 'Torpedo Bats,' where it has filtered home run props that only show batters using torpedo bats. Fanatics Sportsbook promoted a parlay titled 'The Torpedo Touch' on its Twitter/X account earlier on Tuesday, which features four hitters using the new bat to all record a hit in Tuesday's games. Advertisement 'I'm already seeing guys on Twitter and Instagram sharing lists of guys who are using torpedo bats,' said Seamus Magee, trading manager at BetMGM. 'So I can't say I don't anticipate extra action on guys like Anthony Volpe or Jazz Chisholm or Cody Bellinger. But there were also non-Yankees included like Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz. The betting public may be obsessed with the Yankees since they're getting the early headlines, but with these other players mentioned as well, I think you'll see those guys pop up more and more on social media with their home run odds too.' Speaking of De La Cruz, Pikkit told The Athletic that he has attracted the most prop bets of any player for Tuesday's slate among all the MLB wagers it has tracked. Could you blame bettors? The Reds star whacked two home runs and had two other hits on Monday night with his torpedo bat, leading to a career-high seven RBIs. Hard Rock Bet also shared that the fourth-most popular parlay in any sport Tuesday is a three-leg home run parlay at +14150 (or 141.5-to-1) odds involving hitters using torpedo bats: De La Cruz, Chisholm and Francisco Lindor. This was a parlay that was not prebuilt and promoted by the sportsbook initially, though it now resides in the 'Popular Parlays' section of the app. One market to watch is home run prop bets, a popular wager among casual fans. 'Player props will be more of a focus for the public compared to the total,' said Eric Biggio, lead baseball trader at Caesars Sportsbook. 'I'd say for guys who aren't stars like Anthony Volpe and Jazz Chisholm who are using torpedo bats, that the action on their home run props will be about five-fold compared to Opening Day. For Volpe, his Opening Day home run odds were 12-1 with us, and now he's down to 7-1. Chisholm was closer to 7-1 to homer on Opening Day, and today he's a little under 5-1. So those are the adjustments that are taking place. I still think it's too short of a sample size for bigger adjustments like totals.' Will torpedo bats eventually make sportsbooks adjust? This will be a fun topic to keep on as the season progresses.
Yahoo
20-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
March Madness 2025 betting, lines, odds: One bettor at BetMGM would win $1.75 million if Duke wins NCAA tournament
It's no surprise Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils are a popular public wager to win March Madness this season. After all, Duke is the consensus favorite to win the national championship at sportsbooks — and the current +325 co-favorite with Florida at BetMGM — and the team with the most wagers and total dollars wagered at multiple sportsbooks to cut down the nets. But that liability just grew a little bit higher for BetMGM, as it reported Thursday morning that one bettor wagered $500,000 on Duke to win the 2025 title at +350 odds. The bet would win $1.75 million if Flagg & Co. end up winning it all. [Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem is back: Enter for a shot to win up to $50K] "Duke is our biggest liability for the championship by a decent margin," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM college basketball trader, told Yahoo Sports in a text message on Thursday morning. "UNC has also taken quite a bit of action off their play-in game the other night." Duke now has 13.8% of all tickets (most among NCAA tournament teams) and a staggering 37% of the overall dollars wagered (most) in the national championship futures pool at BetMGM. Florida is second in total wagers (8.9%) and overall dollars wagered (11.2%) at BetMGM, including a $100,000 wager at +900 odds. However, Michigan State (25-1) and St. John's (25-1) are the sportsbooks' next biggest liabilities. No. 1 Duke opens its tournament on 2:50 p.m. ET Friday against No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary's. The Blue Devils are a 32.5-point favorite.
