Latest news with #SeemaShah
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US Eco Data 'Conflicting, Confusing,' Principal's Shah Says
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, says there's "still a lot to be seen at this point in time" for the Federal Reserve following last week's US jobs report as markets try to look through the noise. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
5 questions Trump faces after dismal jobs report; BLS commissioner firing
President Trump's economic pitch took a serious hit Friday after the latest federal jobs report revealed stunning weakness in the labor market. He responded by firing the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for what he called politically motivated revisions that lobbed off hundreds of thousands of job gains earlier this summer. The dismal jobs report raised serious questions about the strength of the U.S. economy, especially in light of looming tariffs causing anxieties in the global market. Here are the five big questions facing Trump as he faces the fallout. How much worse does it get? After months of warnings from economists and weakening data from the private sector, federal jobs numbers have caught up to the concern. The July jobs report dramatically changed the picture of the U.S. economy, ramping up concerns fueled by Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty they unleashed. The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July and just 106,000 jobs since May — a three-month total barely enough to sustain the labor market for one month. 'Not only was this a much weaker than forecast payrolls number, the monster downward revisions to the past two months inflicts a major blow to the picture of labor market robustness,' Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in an analysis. 'More concerning is that with the negative impact of tariffs only just starting to be felt, the coming months are likely to see even clearer evidence of a labor market slowdown.' The U.S. economy needs to add 80,000 to 100,000 jobs each month just to replace those who leave the workforce for retirement or incapacity. Without a significant turnaround, the unemployment rate could begin to rise, and the overall economy could slow drastically. 'The U.S. slowdown is starting to take shape,' Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, wrote in a Friday analysis. She added that a decline in labor force participation, which is also bad for the job market, was keeping the unemployment rate from rising further. 'While overall levels are not flashing red, the trend is cause for concern,' she wrote. How does Trump adjust his tariff plans? Trump and top White House officials spent months laughing off the dire projections of economists, who feared his tariffs would tank the job market and boost inflation. That position may not be tenable after Friday. The July jobs report came out on what was supposed to be the final deadline for the imposition of Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs. After insisting for weeks that he would not delay the deadline further, Trump announced Thursday evening that some countries would have an additional week to strike deals with the U.S. Trump's latest punt — which happened after the president is typically briefed on the jobs report — was the latest in a series of delays issued amid rough economic news or stock market turmoil. The president proposed much steeper tariffs during his 'Liberation Day' announcement in April, but he delayed and weakened his plan after two weeks of turmoil in financial markets. Trump and top White House economic aides touted the benefit of federal revenue from import taxes, which are paid by the U.S. businesses and individuals who purchase foreign goods. But the growing pressure of his tariffs could prompt further delays from Trump. Trump could also keep higher headline tariff rates while quietly making exemptions for key goods, undermining the overall goal of his import taxes while potentially avoiding some of the costs. 'A web of exemptions and, in the case of the deals, preferential rates means many key imports face lower tariffs or none. That significantly lowers the actual tariff rate, in many cases well below the quoted headline rate,' Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a Friday analysis. How does the Fed respond? The stunning July jobs numbers will boost pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting in September and are raising questions about whether it should have cut rates already. The Fed kept rates steady Wednesday as inflation continued to rise and the labor market appeared to be weakening at a much slower rate than seen in Friday's jobs report. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged Wednesday the risks that the job market could weaken quicker than expected under the bank's moderately high interest rates, he said he and his colleagues were still unsettled about how Trump's tariffs could drive inflation higher. The Fed now appears to be in a quagmire with the country on track for both a weaker economy and higher inflation — a dynamic known as 'stagflation.' Lower interest rates could stimulate the sluggish labor market but also drive inflation higher with additional money in the economy. Keeping interest rates unchanged could stave off inflation but suffocate the economy into higher unemployment and slower spending. 'With persistent policy uncertainty, tariffs, and diminished immigration flows paralyzing employers, the U.S. economy is now flirting with job losses, revealing a labor market that is much weaker than most Fed policymakers had believed,' Gregory Daco, chief economist EY-Parthenon, wrote in a Friday analysis. 'The Fed is now behind the curve.' Will voters ding Trump as job approval sinks? Trump is largely fulfilling his campaign promises on the economy, including instituting tariffs, though that policy proved to be much more widespread than what he suggested while running for a second term. He's also making good on mass deportation plans, which the administration is using to sell what they see as a stronger economy for the American worker. But some slices of voters don't appear to be singing Trump's praises. Trump headed into the big week on the economy with his job approval rating slipping, with net approval dropping 15 points, according to an Economist/YouGov poll. And his net approval rating also fell 9 points to its lowest rating yet last week in the Decision Desk HQ average, with independents taking issue with Trump's actions on the economy and immigration. Consumer confidence ticked up only slightly in July, a sign that anxieties over the economy could be coming to a head as a result of the president's policies. Consumers also expressed more negative assessments of their economic situations overall. What impact will firing the BLS commissioner have? Experts and economists were left reeling Friday afternoon when Trump announced he was firing the Commissioner of Bureau of Labor Statistics Erika McEntarfer. That cast doubt on the bureau's reporting standards and the type of revisions it makes on previously released reports. When Trump was later asked if that decision meant anyone providing him data he doesn't agree with could risk losing their job, he responded: 'I've always had a problem with these numbers.' In considering who could be McEntarfer's long-term replacement, Trump did not pinpoint experience in labor statistics as a qualification. 'We need people we can trust,' Trump said. 'I put somebody in who's going to be honest.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Solve the daily Crossword
The Hill
01-08-2025
- Business
- The Hill
5 questions Trump faces after dismal jobs report; BLS commissioner firing
President Trump's economic pitch took a serious hit Friday after the latest federal jobs report revealed stunning weakness in the labor market. He responded by firing the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for what he called politically-motivated revisions that lobbed off hundreds of thousands of job gains earlier this summer. The dismal jobs report raised serious questions about the strength of the U.S. economy, especially in light of looming tariffs causing anxieties in the global market. Here are the five big questions facing Trump as he faces the fallout. How much worse does it get? After months of warnings from economists and weakening data from the private sector, federal jobs numbers have caught up to the concern. The July jobs report dramatically changed the picture of the U.S. economy, ramping up concerns fueled by Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty they unleashed. The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July and just 106,000 jobs since May — a three-month total barely enough to sustain the labor market for one month. 'Not only was this a much weaker than forecast payrolls number, the monster downward revisions to the past two months inflicts a major blow to the picture of labor market robustness,' wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in an analysis. 'More concerning is that with the negative impact of tariffs only just starting to be felt, the coming months are likely to see even clearer evidence of a labor market slowdown.' The U.S. economy needs to add 80,000 and 100,000 jobs each month just to replace those who leave the workforce for retirement or incapacity. Without a significant turnaround, the unemployment rate could begin to rise, and the overall economy could slow drastically. 'The U.S. slowdown is starting to take shape,' wrote Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-CIO at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, in a Friday analysis. She added that a decline in labor force participation, which is also bad for the job market, was keeping the unemployment rate from rising further. 'While overall levels are not flashing red, the trend is cause for concern,' she wrote. How does Trump adjust his tariff plans? Trump and top White House officials spent months laughing off the dire projections of economists, who feared his tariffs would tank the job market and boost inflation. That position may not be tenable after Friday. The July jobs report came out on what was supposed to be the final deadline for the imposition of Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs. After insisting for weeks that he would not delay the deadline further, Trump announced Thursday evening that some countries would have an additional week to strike deals with the U.S. Trump's latest punt — which happened after the president is typically briefed on the jobs report — was the latest in a series of delays issued amid rough economic news or stock market turmoil. The president proposed much steeper tariffs during his 'Liberation Day' announcement in April, but delayed and weakened his plan after two weeks of turmoil in financial markets. Trump and top White House economic aides touted the benefit of federal revenue from import taxes, which are paid by the U.S. businesses and individual who purchase foreign goods. But the growing pressure of his tariffs could prompt further delays from Trump. Trump could also keep higher headline tariff rates while quietly making exemptions for key goods, undermining the overall goal of his import taxes while potentially avoiding some of the costs. 'A web of exemptions and, in the case of the deals, preferential rates means many key imports face lower tariffs or none. That significantly lowers the actual tariff rate, in many cases well below the quoted headline rate,' wrote Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a Friday analysis. How does the Fed respond? The stunning July jobs numbers will boost pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting in September, and are already raising questions about whether it should have cut rates already. The Fed kept rates steady Wednesday as inflation continued to rise and the labor market appeared to be weakening at a much slower rate than seen in Friday's jobs report. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged Wednesday the risks that the job market could weaken quicker than expected under the bank's moderately high interest rates, he said he and his colleagues were still unsettled about how Trump's tariffs could drive inflation higher. The Fed now appears to be in a quagmire with the country on track for both a weaker economy and higher inflation — a dynamic known as 'stagflation.' Lower interest rates could stimulate the sluggish labor market, but also drive inflation higher with additional money in the economy. Keeping interest rates unchanged could stave off inflation, but suffocate the economy into higher unemployment and slower spending. 'With persistent policy uncertainty, tariffs, and diminished immigration flows paralyzing employers, the U.S. economy is now flirting with job losses, revealing a labor market that is much weaker than most Fed policymakers had believed,' wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist EY-Parthenon, in a Friday analysis. 'The Fed is now behind the curve.' Will voters ding Trump as job approval sinks? Trump is largely fulfilling his campaign promises on the economy, including instituting tariffs, though that policy proved to be much more widespread than what he suggested while running for a second-term. He's also making good on mass deportation plans, which the administration is using to sell what they see as a stronger economy for the American worker. But some slices of voters don't appear to be singing Trump's praises. Trump headed into the big week on the economy with his job approval rating slipping, with net approval dropping 15 points, according to an Economist/YouGov poll. And his net approval rating also fell 9 points to its lowest rating yet last week in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) average, with independents taking issue with Trump's actions on the economy and immigration. Consumer confidence ticked up only slightly in July, a sign that anxieties over the economy could be coming to a head as a result of the president's policies. Consumers also expressed more negative assessments of their economic situations overall. What impact will firing the BLS commissioner have? Experts and economists were left reeling Friday afternoon when Trump announced he was firing the commissioner of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Erika McEntarfer. That cast doubt on the bureau's reporting standards and the type of revisions it makes on previously released reports. When Trump was later asked if that decision meant anyone providing him data he doesn't agree with could risk losing their job, he responded: 'I've always had a problem with these numbers.' In considering who could be McEntarfer's long-term replacement, Trump did not pinpoint experience in labor statistics as a qualification. 'We need people we can trust,' Trump said. 'I put somebody in who's going to be honest.'
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Continued Gains for Risk Assets Despite Tariffs: Principal's Shah
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, sees a constructive environment for stocks, but doesn't expect double digit gains for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months as she examines the impact of tariffs on earnings. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
June inflation data reaffirms Fed pause as tariff uncertainty grows
June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report likely gives the Federal Reserve room to continue its wait-and-see approach to cutting rates amid uncertainty over how President Trump's tariffs will impact inflation. On a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, CPI increased 0.2% from the previous month, slightly lower than economists' expectations but ahead of May's 0.1% gain. Following the report, investors were placing a 97% probability on the Fed holding rates steady at its July meeting, up from 93% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the chance of a September rate cut dropped sharply after the release, falling below 60% initially and inching closer to 50% as markets digested the data. "The Fed's ability to cut rates was resting heavily on today's inflation print," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote following Tuesday's release. "With inflation coming in softer than expected for the fifth month in a row, it may initially seem like there is still little sign of the tariff-induced boost to inflation that the Fed has been expecting," she continued, referring to the slower-than-expected monthly gain in core prices. "However, with increases in categories like household furnishings, recreation, and apparel, import levies are slowly filtering through to core goods prices." Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation Indeed, apparel prices rose 0.4% in June, and footwear jumped 0.7% after several months of declines. Furniture and bedding prices also climbed 0.4%, reversing the 0.8% drop recorded in May, a potential indication that tariff-related cost pressures are beginning to reach consumers. Shah noted that the full inflationary impact of tariffs will take time to materialize, particularly as many goods were front-loaded ahead of the latest rollouts. "With higher tariffs being announced, it would be wise for the Fed to remain on the sidelines for a few more months at least," she added. Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, echoed that view, noting that the full effects of tariffs have yet to unveil themselves. He believes any resulting price increases will likely be short-lived. "A lot of businesses are talking about rapidly passing on the higher tariff shock from these higher duties. So we're anticipating a rather swift pass-through," he told Yahoo Finance. "But if we are in an environment where there are staggered tariffs over the next year, then there is a risk of more inflation persistence. And I think that's the key risk for the US economy right now." The Fed itself has appeared divided on when to lower interest rates. Minutes from its June policy meeting revealed a split committee, with "most" officials supporting at least one rate cut this year while "a couple" signaled they'd be open to moving as early as July. Others preferred to hold rates steady through year-end. Meanwhile, President Trump has continued his public campaign for significantly lower rates, writing on Truth Social: "Fed should cut Rates by 3 Points. Very Low Inflation. One Trillion Dollars a year would be saved!!!" Read more: How much control does the president have over the Fed and interest rates? The next major inflation test for the Fed comes Wednesday, with the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of how much prices are changing for what businesses sell. Later this month, investors will shift focus to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. But as Wall Street has consistently been reminded, the Fed's cautious stance is being driven not just by recent inflation data but also by lingering uncertainty around President Trump's evolving tariff policy. Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said that if Trump's proposed Aug. 1 tariffs go into effect, the inflationary impact on goods prices could take several months to appear. Sweet, who is currently forecasting the next rate cut in December, said this would likely keep the Fed on hold unless the labor market weakens significantly. "The new tariffs, if implemented, could tilt the risks toward the next rate cut occurring later than in the baseline," the economist said. "The Fed could be comfortable waiting a little too long and then trying to catch up with more aggressive cuts because of the uncertainty around tariffs." Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at
