19-05-2025
Indus And Sutlej Originate In Tibet. Can China Block Their Flow?
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Technically, China has the capability to stop the water flow of these rivers since they originate in Tibet. But using water as a geopolitical weapon has limitations
China's control over Tibet, where key rivers like the Indus and Sutlej originate, adds a complex dimension to the now-paused Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan.
Signed in 1960 to manage shared water resources, the Indus Water Treaty lets India use the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) and Pakistan the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). After the Pahalgam terror attack, India put the treaty in 'abeyance'. While this move could have severe long-term consequences for Pakistan, concerns now also focus on the potential impact if China decides to obstruct the flow of these rivers originating in Tibet.
The Indus River originates from the Seng Khabab glacier near Mansarovar Lake and Mount Kailash in Tibet, at an altitude of around 5,500 metres. It flows through Tibet into Ladakh, where it meets tributaries like the Zanskar and Shyok, before entering Pakistan and eventually emptying into the Arabian Sea. Spanning approximately 3,180 kilometres, the Indus was the lifeline of the ancient Indus Valley Civilization and remains vital for agriculture and hydroelectric power in both India and Pakistan.
The Sutlej River originates from the Longchen Khabab glacier near Rakshas Tal in Tibet, at an altitude of approximately 4,600 to 5,000 metres. The glacier's meltwater forms the river's initial source. In Tibet, the Sutlej merges with streams like the Spiti River before entering India's Himachal Pradesh near the Shipki La pass. It then flows through the Kinnar Kailash region and continues into Punjab, where it supports the crucial Bhakra Dam hydroelectric and irrigation project. Finally, the Sutlej joins the Indus River in Pakistan. Stretching about 1,450 kilometres, the Sutlej is vital for Punjab's agriculture and India's hydroelectric power generation.
Technically, China has the capability to stop the water flow of these rivers since they originate in Tibet. China has built hydroelectric plants like Senge Tsangpo and Ngari Shiquanhe near the Indus' source, and a barrage at Zada Gorge on the Sutlej. These structures can control water flow, potentially reducing, stopping, or altering it.
China's large dams have the potential to regulate water flow, impacting India and Pakistan, especially during dry and rainy seasons. Additionally, China could divert water for its own use, similar to its South-North Water Transfer Project, though this has not been implemented on the Indus or Sutlej rivers. If China withholds water-flow data—as it did for the Brahmaputra in 2017—it could hinder India's ability to predict floods or droughts, complicating water management and disaster preparedness.
China Has Done It Before
There have been instances where China has used water as a geopolitical tool. In 2016, China halted the flow of the Shiyaku, a Brahmaputra tributary, for a hydroelectric project, sending a geopolitical message to India. After the Galwan Valley conflict in 2020, China blocked the Galwan River, an Indus tributary, causing water shortages in India. In 2004, China created an artificial lake on the Parechu River, a tributary of the Sutlej, raising fears in India of a potential 'water bomb'. However, China shared data promptly, helping to prevent any major damage.
Water: A Geopolitical Weapon
Withholding water can serve as a geopolitical weapon for China in certain situations. According to experts, during border tensions with India—such as at Galwan or Doklam—China could leverage control over river flows.
Given China's close ties with Pakistan, many analysts predict that if India suspends the Indus Water Treaty or reduces water supply to Pakistan, China might retaliate by restricting water from the Indus or Sutlej rivers. Experts have also warned that, with growing water and energy demands, China could divert water from these rivers for its own use.
Limitations Of Water Retention
Using water as a geopolitical weapon has limitations. Only a small percentage of the water in the Indus (10-15%) and Sutlej (20%) originates from Tibet, making it difficult to stop entirely. Building large dams in the earthquake-prone region of Tibet is risky, and stopping water could affect the local ecology and communities.
Stopping water flow can be considered a violation of international water laws, such as the Helsinki Rules, which could lead to global criticism of China. This may escalate tensions with countries like India and Bangladesh, increasing regional instability. Additionally, projects like the Bhakra Dam in Punjab and other hydroelectric and irrigation facilities in Himachal Pradesh could be adversely affected, reducing water availability and power generation. Water shortages in Ladakh could also harm local agriculture and impact military bases in the region.
Existing India-China Water Agreements
India and China currently have hydrological data-sharing agreements for the Sutlej and Brahmaputra rivers, signed between 2002 and 2018. These agreements cover data exchange during the flood season (June–October) and have expired in 2023. However, China has continued to share data for the Sutlej beyond this period. Notably, there is no formal water-sharing treaty between the two nations, giving China greater flexibility and control over the rivers' waters.
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First Published:
May 19, 2025, 18:08 IST
