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The Guardian
04-08-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Investor confidence in EU drops after Trump's Brussels trade deal
Investor confidence in the EU has fallen sharply after Donald Trump's trade agreement with Brussels, amid mounting concern about the economic hit from the US president's tariff war. The latest snapshot from the Sentix index showed that investor sentiment fell significantly at the start of the month after the deal last week between Trump and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. The data provider said its weekly survey of thousands of investors in more than 20 countries showed that the pact was a 'deal that dampens the mood', with Trump and the US viewed as 'winners' at the expense of the eurozone. 'The result is devastating for the eurozone,' said Manfred Hubner, the managing director of the Sentix economic index. 'The current situation and expectations are both declining. The wrinkles of concern in the economy are deepening again.' Financial markets are braced for Washington to introduce sweeping, higher 'reciprocal' tariffs on imports from dozens of countries from the middle of this week, including Brazil on Wednesday and most other nations from Thursday. Share prices in Switzerland, which is facing a 39% export tariff from Thursday, plunged on Monday, as nations around the world continue to grapple with the fallout from Trump's erratic global trade war. Financial markets elsewhere rallied, including in London, Frankfurt, and Paris, after a tariff-related sell-off at the end of last week. In tangled negotiations, with the threat of tariffs being withheld, escalated and rescinded on an almost daily basis, Washington remains locked in talks with several countries. A tariff of 40% on US imports from Brazil will begin on Wednesday, and will be topped up to 50% from Thursday. Canada is pushing for a deal to bring down tariffs of 35% on its exports, which was introduced from Friday, while US border taxes on imports from China and Mexico have been paused to allow more time for negotiations. The latest snapshot from Sentix showed sharp declines in investor confidence in Germany and Switzerland in particular after the agreement reached between Trump and von der Leyen at the US president's Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion The headline index fell from 4.5 in July to -3.7 in August, according to the survey conducted between 31 July and 2 August. The US-EU trade deal drew swift condemnation from some European leaders, including the French prime minister, François Bayrou, who called it a 'dark day' for the EU. The agreement involves Washington imposing a 15% tariff on almost all European exports to the US, about triple the 4.8% tariff now in force. However, the pact limited a much higher – 30% – import duty threatened from Trump's self-imposed 1 August deadline.
Reuters
04-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
EU-US trade deal sends euro zone investor sentiment plummeting
BERLIN, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Investor sentiment in the euro zone unexpectedly tumbled in August in one of the first indications that the business community is unimpressed with the European Union's new trade deal with the United States, a survey showed on Monday. The Sentix index for the euro zone turned negative in August, falling to -3.7 from 4.5 the month before, ending three months of increases and falling far short of a forecast from analysts polled by Reuters of an increase to 8.0 this month. "The tariff agreement is proving to be a real mood killer," said Sentix managing director Manfred Huebner in a statement. The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the EU late last month, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods. The survey of 1,050 investors, conducted from July 31 to August 2, after the deal was struck, also showed declines in their assessment of the current situation and expectations. The current situation sub-index declined to -13.0 in August from -7.3 a month prior, while expectations took an 11-point fall to 6.0. Sentiment in Germany, Europe's largest economy, was massively dampened by the deal, which will require the government in Berlin to have a rethink, added Huebner. The overall index for investor sentiment in Germany fell to -12.8 in August from -0.4 in July, ending three months of gains.
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trade Tensions Boost the Dollar
The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.14% at a 1-week high. The weakness in stocks today has boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. Also, comments from President Trump that he will start announcing unilateral tariff rates in the coming days on dozens of countries are lifting the dollar, as concerns rise that rising tariffs will boost inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. Gains in the dollar are limited after President Trump signed the reconciliation bill into law last Friday. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.4 trillion to US budget deficits over the next decade. The fiscal stimulus from the bill will be a net positive for the US economy, but the higher deficit is negative for the dollar as it increases the risk of an eventual debt crisis in the United States and reduces foreign investor confidence in the United States. Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! The markets are discounting a 5% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.37%, mainly due to dollar strength. Also, weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic news is weighing on the euro after Eurozone May retail sales fell more than expected. Limiting losses in the euro is the jump in the Eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index to a nearly 3.50 year high, and the unexpected increase in German May industrial production. The Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index rose +4.3 to a nearly 3.50-year high of 4.5, stronger than expectations of 1.0. Eurozone May retail sales fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m and the biggest decrease in 1.75 years. German May industrial production unexpectedly rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline. Swaps are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.88%. The yen fell to a 1.50-week low against the dollar today on concern that higher US tariffs on Japanese exports will hurt the Japanese economy. Also, the rising tariffs may prevent the BOJ from raising interest rates further. Last Tuesday, President Trump said that a trade deal with Japan is unlikely, indicating that the country will likely face a tariff of 30%, 35%, or "whatever the number is that we determine." Higher T-note yields today are also weighing on the yen. The Japan May leading index CI rose +1.1 to 105.3, stronger than expectations of 105.2. Japan May labor cash earnings rose +1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -15.20 (-0.45%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.304 (-0.82%). Precious metals are under pressure today from a stronger dollar. Also, higher global bond yields today are weighing on precious metals. In addition, industrial metals demand concerns are weighing on silver prices after President Trump said that he will impose an additional 10% tariff on countries aligned with BRICS block, which includes Brazil, China, South Africa, and India, with no exemptions. Today's stock market weakness is boosting some safe-haven demand for precious metals. Also, trade tensions are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump pledged to start issuing unilateral tariff rates in the coming days on dozens of countries. Fund buying of silver is supporting silver prices as silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2.75-year high last Friday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
07-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Euro zone investor morale hits three-year record as recovery broadens
BERLIN, July 7 (Reuters) - Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved more than expected in July to hit its highest level in more than three years, a survey showed on Monday, as the bloc's economic recovery broadened. The Sentix index for the euro zone rose to 4.5 from 0.2 in June, beating the 1.1 forecast from analysts polled by Reuters and marking its third consecutive monthly increase. The current situation sub-index improved notably but remained in negative territory, rising by 5.8 points to -7.3, while expectations climbed 2.8 points to 17.0, also marking a third straight rise. The survey of investors, conducted between July 4-6, showed the recovery was broad-based across regions, with the United States economy making particularly strong gains after lagging in previous months. Germany, Europe's largest economy, also showed continued improvement with its overall index reaching -0.4, its highest since February 2022, as the current situation rose for a fifth straight month. The survey indicated the European Central Bank's room for further interest rate cuts may narrow as the economic upturn strengthens, though inflation pressures remain contained for now.
Business Standard
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
EUR/USD supported above 1.1400, Euro area investor sentiment hits highest in a year
Euro stayed supported against the US dollar as markets eyed steady economic cues. Euro area investor morale rose to the highest level in a year in June, driven by the economic recovery in Germany, survey data from the behavioral research institute Sentix showed Tuesday. The investor sentiment index rose to +0.2 in June from -8.1 in May. EUR/USD pair is quoting at 1.1435, up marginally on the day following this. Despite steady risk appetite in world markets, caution ahead of the US inflation reading is keeping overall movement tight for the currency. On NSE, EUR/INR futures are currently quoting at 97.95, up marginally on the day. The pair saw a good recovery after falling near 97.60 mark in midmorning trades.
