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Egypt Independent
6 days ago
- General
- Egypt Independent
As Ukraine batters Russia with daring assaults, firebrand pro-Kremlin pundits rattle nuclear sabers
CNN — How will Moscow respond to the stunning Ukrainian drone strikes on its fleet of strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has stayed tight-lipped, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which struck air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border. But fury is being openly vented across the Russia media, with pro-Kremlin pundits and bloggers seething with calls for retribution, even nuclear retaliation. 'This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,' the prominent 'Two Majors' bloggers said on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. 'After the mushroom cloud you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on,' they added, referring to the inevitable Kremlin search for scapegoats for the fiasco. At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, urged caution, warning in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would 'lead to real political isolation'. But popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded Russia should 'strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences.' A satellite image appears to show damage to aircraft following a Ukrainian drone attack targeting Russian military airfields in Stepnoy, Irkutsk region, Russia, on Monday. Capella Space/Handout/Reuters Of course, Russian hardliners routinely clammer for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing thinly veiled, but ultimately empty threats of Armageddon aimed at the Western allies. The fact they are doing so again, after such a painful series of attacks, is hardly surprising. But it would be wrong to get too complacent and dismiss all Russian nuclear saber-rattling as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the slim possibility of a devastating Russian response a little more seriously this time around. Firstly, several Russian pundits have commented on how Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be interpreted as breaching Moscow's legal nuclear threshold. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine – which sets out conditions for a launch – states that any attack on 'critically important' military infrastructure which 'disrupts response actions by nuclear forces' could trigger a nuclear retaliation. The Ukrainian operation was 'grounds for a nuclear attack,' declared Vladmir Solovyov, a firebrand host on Russian state TV, calling for strikes on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv, and beyond. Whatever the legality, the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains mercifully high and such a strike is likely to be dismissed in Kremlin circles as an impractical overkill. For a start, it would poison relations with key Russian trading partners like China and India, as well as provoke potential military action against Russian forces. Inevitable mass casualties would be certain to invite universal scorn, further isolating Russia on the international stage. But here's the problem: the Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. Ukraine says it has struck a bridge connecting Russia to Crimea with underwater explosives. SBU/Telegram An image released by the SBU showed damage to the Crimean Bridge. Security Service of Ukraine It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes, deep inside Russia, that have humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine staged yet another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea – the third time the vital road and rail link has been hit. The capture by Ukrainian forces of the Kursk region in western Russia last year dealt another powerful blow, leaving the Kremlin struggling to liberate its own land. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine's allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supplied arms against Russia, further challenging what were once believed to be Moscow's red lines. Ukrainian Army soldiers use American Bradley Fighting Vehicles during Ukraine's cross-border operation into Russia's Kursk region on January 15 in Sumy, doubt the Kremlin is itching to respond decisively, but how? One former Russian minister told CNN the most likely response by Moscow would be more 'barbaric' conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities of the kind that the people of Ukraine have already suffered for years. 'There's no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive. They don't have enough personnel for it,' said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now living outside of Russia. 'People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons and so on. I don't think this is on the table. But, again, Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge.' In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option can't be entirely discounted. This Ukraine conflict has already taken multiple unexpected turns, not least the full-scale Russian invasion itself in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters revel in the stunning successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- General
- Yahoo
As Ukraine batters Russia with daring assaults, firebrand pro-Kremlin pundits rattle nuclear sabers
How will Moscow respond to the stunning Ukrainian drone strikes on its fleet of strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has stayed tight-lipped, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which struck air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border. But fury is being openly vented across the Russia media, with pro-Kremlin pundits and bloggers seething with calls for retribution, even nuclear retaliation. 'This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,' the prominent 'Two Majors' bloggers said on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. 'After the mushroom cloud you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on,' they added, referring to the inevitable Kremlin search for scapegoats for the fiasco. At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, urged caution, warning in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would 'lead to real political isolation'. But popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded Russia should 'strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences.' Of course, Russian hardliners routinely clammer for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing thinly veiled, but ultimately empty threats of Armageddon aimed at the Western allies. The fact they are doing so again, after such a painful series of attacks, is hardly surprising. But it would be wrong to get too complacent and dismiss all Russian nuclear saber-rattling as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the slim possibility of a devastating Russian response a little more seriously this time around. Firstly, several Russian pundits have commented on how Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be interpreted as breaching Moscow's legal nuclear threshold. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine – which sets out conditions for a launch – states that any attack on 'critically important' military infrastructure which 'disrupts response actions by nuclear forces' could trigger a nuclear retaliation. The Ukrainian operation was 'grounds for a nuclear attack,' declared Vladmir Solovyov, a firebrand host on Russian state TV, calling for strikes on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv, and beyond. Whatever the legality, the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains mercifully high and such a strike is likely to be dismissed in Kremlin circles as an impractical overkill. For a start, it would poison relations with key Russian trading partners like China and India, as well as provoke potential military action against Russian forces. Inevitable mass casualties would be certain to invite universal scorn, further isolating Russia on the international stage. But here's the problem: the Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes, deep inside Russia, that have humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine staged yet another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea – the third time the vital road and rail link has been hit. The capture by Ukrainian forces of the Kursk region in western Russia last year dealt another powerful blow, leaving the Kremlin struggling to liberate its own land. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine's allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supplied arms against Russia, further challenging what were once believed to be Moscow's red lines. Few doubt the Kremlin is itching to respond decisively, but how? One former Russian minister told CNN the most likely response by Moscow would be more 'barbaric' conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities of the kind that the people of Ukraine have already suffered for years. 'There's no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive. They don't have enough personnel for it,' said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now living outside of Russia. 'People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons and so on. I don't think this is on the table. But, again, Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge.' In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option can't be entirely discounted. This Ukraine conflict has already taken multiple unexpected turns, not least the full-scale Russian invasion itself in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters revel in the stunning successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences.
CNN
6 days ago
- General
- CNN
As Ukraine batters Russia with daring assaults, firebrand pro-Kremlin pundits rattle nuclear sabres
How will Moscow respond to the stunning Ukrainian drone strikes on its fleet of strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has stayed tight-lipped, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which struck air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border. But fury is being openly vented across the Russia media, with pro-Kremlin pundits and bloggers seething with calls for retribution, even nuclear retaliation. 'This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,' the prominent 'Two Majors' bloggers said on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. 'After the mushroom cloud you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on,' they added, referring to the inevitable Kremlin search for scapegoats for the fiasco. At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, urged caution, warning in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would 'lead to real political isolation'. But popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded Russia should 'strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences.' Of course, Russian hardliners routinely clammer for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing thinly veiled, but ultimately empty threats of Armageddon aimed at the Western allies. The fact they are doing so again, after such a painful series of attacks, is hardly surprising. But it would be wrong to get too complacent and dismiss all Russian nuclear saber-rattling as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the slim possibility of a devastating Russian response a little more seriously this time around. Firstly, several Russian pundits have commented on how Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be interpreted as breaching Moscow's legal nuclear threshold. Video obtained by CNN appears to show Russian combat planes burning on the tarmac following a large scale Ukrainian drone attack. CNN cannot independently verify the location of the videos but a source in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) said the drone strikes targeted four airbases deep inside Russia. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine – which sets out conditions for a launch – states that any attack on 'critically important' military infrastructure which 'disrupts response actions by nuclear forces' could trigger a nuclear retaliation. The Ukrainian operation was 'grounds for a nuclear attack,' declared Vladmir Solovyov, a firebrand host on Russian state TV, calling for strikes on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv, and beyond. Whatever the legality, the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains mercifully high and such a strike is likely to be dismissed in Kremlin circles as an impractical overkill. For a start, it would poison relations with key Russian trading partners like China and India, as well as provoke potential military action against Russian forces. Inevitable mass casualties would be certain to invite universal scorn, further isolating Russia on the international stage. But here's the problem: the Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes, deep inside Russia, that have humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine staged yet another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea – the third time the vital road and rail link has been hit. The capture by Ukrainian forces of the Kursk region in western Russia last year dealt another powerful blow, leaving the Kremlin struggling to liberate its own land. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine's allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supplied arms against Russia, further challenging what were once believed to be Moscow's red lines. Few doubt the Kremlin is itching to respond decisively, but how? One former Russian minister told CNN the most likely response by Moscow would be more 'barbaric' conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities of the kind that the people of Ukraine have already suffered for years. 'There's no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive. They don't have enough personnel for it,' said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now living outside of Russia. 'People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons and so on. I don't think this is on the table. But, again, Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge.' In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option can't be entirely discounted. This Ukraine conflict has already taken multiple unexpected turns, not least the full-scale Russian invasion itself in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters revel in the stunning successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences.
CNN
6 days ago
- General
- CNN
As Ukraine batters Russia with daring assaults, firebrand pro-Kremlin pundits rattle nuclear sabres
How will Moscow respond to the stunning Ukrainian drone strikes on its fleet of strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has stayed tight-lipped, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which struck air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border. But fury is being openly vented across the Russia media, with pro-Kremlin pundits and bloggers seething with calls for retribution, even nuclear retaliation. 'This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,' the prominent 'Two Majors' bloggers said on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. 'After the mushroom cloud you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on,' they added, referring to the inevitable Kremlin search for scapegoats for the fiasco. At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, urged caution, warning in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would 'lead to real political isolation'. But popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded Russia should 'strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences.' Of course, Russian hardliners routinely clammer for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing thinly veiled, but ultimately empty threats of Armageddon aimed at the Western allies. The fact they are doing so again, after such a painful series of attacks, is hardly surprising. But it would be wrong to get too complacent and dismiss all Russian nuclear saber-rattling as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the slim possibility of a devastating Russian response a little more seriously this time around. Firstly, several Russian pundits have commented on how Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be interpreted as breaching Moscow's legal nuclear threshold. Video obtained by CNN appears to show Russian combat planes burning on the tarmac following a large scale Ukrainian drone attack. CNN cannot independently verify the location of the videos but a source in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) said the drone strikes targeted four airbases deep inside Russia. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine – which sets out conditions for a launch – states that any attack on 'critically important' military infrastructure which 'disrupts response actions by nuclear forces' could trigger a nuclear retaliation. The Ukrainian operation was 'grounds for a nuclear attack,' declared Vladmir Solovyov, a firebrand host on Russian state TV, calling for strikes on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv, and beyond. Whatever the legality, the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains mercifully high and such a strike is likely to be dismissed in Kremlin circles as an impractical overkill. For a start, it would poison relations with key Russian trading partners like China and India, as well as provoke potential military action against Russian forces. Inevitable mass casualties would be certain to invite universal scorn, further isolating Russia on the international stage. But here's the problem: the Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes, deep inside Russia, that have humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine staged yet another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea – the third time the vital road and rail link has been hit. The capture by Ukrainian forces of the Kursk region in western Russia last year dealt another powerful blow, leaving the Kremlin struggling to liberate its own land. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine's allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supplied arms against Russia, further challenging what were once believed to be Moscow's red lines. Few doubt the Kremlin is itching to respond decisively, but how? One former Russian minister told CNN the most likely response by Moscow would be more 'barbaric' conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities of the kind that the people of Ukraine have already suffered for years. 'There's no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive. They don't have enough personnel for it,' said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now living outside of Russia. 'People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons and so on. I don't think this is on the table. But, again, Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge.' In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option can't be entirely discounted. This Ukraine conflict has already taken multiple unexpected turns, not least the full-scale Russian invasion itself in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters revel in the stunning successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences.
Newsweek
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
How Putin Might Respond to 'Russia's Pearl Harbor'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Ukrainian drone strikes against air bases deep inside Russia are grounds for a nuclear response, a Kremlin-backed newspaper has reported amid anticipation over what Moscow will do after what has been described as the country's "Pearl Harbor." The comments by Russian political analyst Sergei Markov to Moskovsky Komsomolets followed the revelation from Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) that its drone operation had struck four air bases and 41 strategic bombers, inflicting $7 billion worth of damage. While his remarks do not reflect the Kremlin's position, eyes will be on Moscow's response as Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in Istanbul on Monday to discuss how to end the war started by Vladimir Putin. "We can expect a great deal of sound and fury from Moscow," Keir Giles, from the London-based think tank Chatham House, told Newsweek on Monday. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment. Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers and a Tu-160 strategic bomber fly over Red Square in this illustrative image from June 24, 2020. Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers and a Tu-160 strategic bomber fly over Red Square in this illustrative image from June 24, It Matters Pro-Russian Telegram channels have compared Ukraine's daring strikes on Sunday to the Imperial Japanese Navy's attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. Also making the comparison was The Washington Post's Max Boot in an op-ed that which said "the Russian high command must have been as shocked as the Americans were in 1941." Pro-Russian military bloggers and some officials blamed Russian leadership for failing to protect military infrastructure as far away as Irkutsk in Siberia in an attack that delivered a stunning PR coup for Kyiv that could also risk escalation as stalled peace talks restart on Monday. What To Know In an operation codenamed "Spider's Web" said to be 18 months in the planning, Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against air bases in Russia on Sunday. Ukraine's SBU sources said first-person view (FPV) drone strikes hit Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast—2,500 miles away from the front line in Ukraine. Also targeted were Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast, Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast. This image from March 25, 2015, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow. This image from March 25, 2015, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in SBU sources said 41 Russian aircraft were hit including an A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft and Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers used to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine. The drones had been transported to Russia, stored in trucks carrying cargo units with retractable roofs that were parked near the air bases and launched remotely. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 117 drones had destroyed over one third (34 percent) of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers. Giles, senior consulting fellow, from Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program, said that following the strikes, Russia will again emphasize the risks of uncontrollable escalation in its messaging to the West. This will see Moscow try to create the impression that their nuclear forces are still on a hair trigger and any further operational successes by Ukraine could lead to all-out war with NATO. He said Moscow will work hard to convince the U.S. to rein Ukraine in to prevent any further damage to Russia's means of bombarding Ukrainian cities with long range missiles. Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone rising from a cargo truck and heading towards Russia's Belaya Airbase. The drone launch and airbase hit were over 4000 km (2500 mi) from Ukraine. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025 To a certain extent, the more important question is how the United States reacts, and how eager it is to take Moscow's side and constrain Ukraine, Giles added. The Russian Ministry of Defense said Ukraine's drone strikes targeted air bases in Irkutsk, and Murmansk oblasts and caused several aircraft to catch fire but claimed that Russian forces repelled all strikes against the bases in Ivanovo and Ryazan. Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business told Newsweek he did not believe Russia would choose to escalate and that Moscow is likely to downplay the significance of the attacks so as not to admit a setback. Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at LSE IDEAS, The London School of Economics think tank told Newsweek that Ukraine had achieved its greatest tactical success since late 2022, which diplomatically, means Moscow has no incentives left to agree to a ceasefire. Instead, Russia will not yield on demands concerning Ukraine's NATO membership and territories it has claimed to have annexed, he said. Militarily, Russia's options are grinding down Ukrainian forces and waiting for the outcome of the expected Russian summer offensive as well as continued missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, military and civilian infrastructure, Vuksanovic added. What People Are Saying Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, Chatham House: "We should expect a repetition of Russia's standard practice of presenting air and missile bombardment of Ukrainian cities as 'retaliation' for the attacks over the weekend, even though in reality these strikes are planned long in advance." Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business: "I do not believe that Russia will escalate. On the front line in Ukraine, the Russian army progresses little by little— this is their main objective. The attack on their facilities in Russia is significant and humiliating, but it is not an invasion." What Happens Next Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which said Russia will likely struggle to replace the damaged and destroyed aircraft. The strikes are likely to up the ante during Monday's negotiations in Istanbul.
