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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Analysis: Lebanon's decision on weapons corners Hezbollah
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Aug. 6 (UPI) -- Lebanon, caught between mounting international pressure and the risk of another devastating war with Israel, made a game-changing decision by tasking the Army with preparing a plan to enforce a state monopoly on weapons by the end of the year. The move poses a new challenge to the once-powerful Hezbollah, which has been left with almost no options after being significantly weakened during last year's war with Israel. The decision, adopted during a Cabinet session chaired by President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday, not only ends the political cover Hezbollah has enjoyed for decades, but also undermines its legitimacy as a "resistance organization," according to military and political analysts. Addressing Hezbollah's weapons had long been a taboo topic; until September, when Israel escalated its attacks on the group, killing its longtime leader, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, along with many of its top military commanders. In addition, the Iran-backed Shiite group reportedly lost the bulk of its military capabilities in ongoing Israeli airstrikes targeting its positions in southern and eastern Lebanon. Hezbollah had no alternative but to accept the Nov. 27 ceasefire agreement, brokered by the United States and France, to end the 14-month war with Israel that killed or wounded more than 20,000 people and left border villages in southern Lebanon in ruins. However, the agreement marked an opportunity for Lebanon to reclaim its long-lost sovereignty after decades of lawlessness, military occupation and the dominance of armed non-state actors. Tuesday's decision was "certainly a historic" one, according to Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. "Hezbollah has lost the political cover that has given it legitimacy as a resistance organization," Kahwaji told UPI. He maintained that the militant group is now viewed as an armed militia that must comply with the 1989 Taif Accords -- which ended the 1975-1990 civil war -- and U.N. Resolution 1701, both of which call for the disarmament of all armed groups and affirm that only the Lebanese Armed Forces should hold a monopoly on weapons in the country. While Hezbollah implicitly agreed to discuss its weapons as part of a national defense strategy, it resisted government efforts to set a timetable for disarming -- a key U.S. condition for unlocking much-needed international and Gulf Arab funding to support Lebanon's reconstruction and economic recovery. In line with the government decision, the Army was to submit its implementation plan on disarming Hezbollah and other Palestinian armed factions to the cabinet by the end of August for discussion and approval, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said after the Cabinet meeting. Hezbollah and its main ally, the Shiite Amal Movement led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, rejected in separate statements Wednesday the Cabinet's decision as a "grave sin" that offers "free concessions to the Israeli enemy" and weakens Lebanon, rather than ending Israel's ongoing attacks, its occupation of Lebanese territory and securing the release of Lebanese prisoners. Hezbollah has maintained that it is unwilling to lay down its arms as long as Israel continues to occupy parts of Lebanese territory -- an argument that was considered legitimate until the recent Cabinet decision. "Its weapons will become illegitimate by the end of the year, in accordance with Lebanese law," said Abdul Rahman Chehaitli, a retired major general and author of The Lebanese Land and Maritime Borders: A Historical, Geographical, and Political Study. "But it still enjoys popular legitimacy." Chehaitli noted that Lebanon still faces "external threats" from Israel and from armed groups operating outside the control of the new Syrian leadership and that are deployed along the eastern border. He explained that Lebanon would need an agreement similar to the 1949 Armistice Accord to guarantee Israel's withdrawal and to demarcate the border, as well as a separate border agreement with Syria to enable the Lebanese Army to carry out its mission. "The government is serious, but no one can say what will happen the next day or what additional demands the U.S. and Israel might push forward," he told UPI, referring to concerns among Lebanon's Shiite community about their future and political role in the country. The question remains whether Hezbollah is still capable of fighting Israel after losing much of its power. Kahwaji said the group was "trying to put on a strong face," but clearly, "the Hezbollah we knew is no longer there. ... It's much weaker." He argued that Hezbollah's "calculations have continuously and miserably failed" since Oct. 7, 2023, which is why the group was "badly defeated and degraded." "It has lost the halo it carried for years. All its attempts to recreate the illusion of deterrence and to intimidate the state have also failed," he said. While Israel claimed to have destroyed 70 percent of Hezbollah's arsenal, Chehaitli said, "no one really knows. ... It remains a mystery." "It could still have military capabilities it hasn't used -- or it could have none," he added, emphasizing that Hezbollah, in any case, would not initiate a war but could fight back if one is imposed. The devastating blows Hezbollah suffered during the war with Israel have reportedly prompted the group -which has been fighting Israel since its establishment after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982- to engage in a comprehensive internal review. The situation has shifted significantly due to the accelerated developments in the region following the Gaza war. Hezbollah, which was the principal component of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" carrying out missions outside Lebanon, has been forced to shift its focus. Kassem Kassir, a political analyst who specializes in Islamic movements and is close to Hezbollah, explained that the group is engaged in internal discussions, as well as talks with other political forces in the country, to develop "a new vision." "But so far, it hasn't produced a comprehensive or complete one," Kassir told UPI. What is clear, however, is that Hezbollah is now focusing on Lebanon and its future role as part of the state. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
28-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Hezbollah's new era offers limited options; disarming remains crucial issue
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Feb. 28 (UPI) -- Hezbollah, which was left with limited options after it was greatly weakened by Israel's devastating war, has started a new era in which it is making concessions and showing flexibility, but it is not ready to relinquish anti-Israel resistance or be forced to disarm, according to political and military analysts. The Iran-backed militant group grew from small resistance cells fighting Israeli forces occupying southern Lebanon in the early 1980s to become one of the most powerful non-state actors in the Middle East. Having lost its top leaders, including its long-time charismatic Secretary-General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, and most of its military infrastructure during the war, Hezbollah was almost pushed back to its early days. It is now reinventing and reasserting itself as a political force and maintain its popular base and resistance, as well as ease tensions with the country's other communities. The Shiite Muslim group passed its first test when large numbers of faithful supporters attended the funeral ceremony it organized in Beirut on Sunday for Nasrallah and his successor, Hashem Saffiedine, nearly five months after they were assassinated by Israel. "It was a message to those who say 'the Shiites were defeated or weakened' that they are still strong," Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former army general, told UPI. "Painful blows" Hezbollah admitted it received "very painful blows" from Israel during their 14-month war that started in October 2023 in support of Gaza and ended on Nov. 27 with the group accepting a cease-fire agreement brokered by the United States and France. "They also admitted that they should change their tactics and strategy, whether in times of war or peace," Jaber said. "Also, that Iran cannot keep on dictating what they should do." Forced to take a step back now that the balance of power is no more in its favor, Hezbollah turned to the Lebanese state, trusting it -- at least for now -- with ending Israel's occupation in south Lebanon and continued aggressions through diplomatic efforts. "The ball is in the court of the Lebanese state," Jaber said. "If its efforts fail to force Israel into completing its withdrawal, Hezbollah will be forced to act. ... A popular resistance could break out." Israel announced it would maintain five military hilltop posts inside south Lebanon when it pulled out its forces Feb. 18, but did not specify when it could evacuate them. According to Jaber, Israel has effectively retained seven points inside south Lebanon border area. Green light from Washington On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said his country received "a green light" from Washington to "stay without a time limit." There also are 13 points on the border that Lebanon claims, but it has agreed to solve the border dispute during negotiations to be facilitated by the United States. Apart from its diminished military strength and capabilities, Hezbollah is reportedly facing severe financial difficulties after it lost its main supply route from Iran via Syria after President Bashar Assad's ouster in December. Israeli threats to bomb Beirut's only civilian airport led to strict security measures and banning Iranian planes from landing on suspicion of smuggling cash money to the group. The financial straits are affecting Hezbollah's ability to pay its fighters and continue providing health, social and educational services to its followers, according to Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. "That's why Hezbollah is trying to count more on its religious affiliation and will be seeking more funding through donations; Zakat [almsgiving] or other ways," Kahwaji told UPI. Zakat is a mandatory act for Muslims to donate a certain proportion of their money each year to charitable causes. Reconstruction the most challenging But the most challenging effort would be reconstructing larges areas destroyed by Israel's relentless air and ground bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs and eastern and southern Lebanon. Entire villages in the southern border area were wiped out, while houses, buildings, hospitals, schools and infrastructure were also completely or partially destroyed in the other targeted areas. The World Bank has initially put Lebanon's physical damage and economic losses from Hezbollah-Israel war at some $8.5 billion. Here too, Hezbollah finds itself unable to keep up its promises to rebuild the damages areas, turning to the Lebanese state to secure the necessary funds. However, any such funds are not to be released by the international community and Arab donors unless Hezbollah fully implements the cease-fire agreement based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, and the Lebanese government adopts required reforms. Under the international resolution, Hezbollah should be fully disarmed; a step the group rejected and justified by the continued Israeli occupation of Lebanese territories and the necessity to retain its military might for Lebanon's national security. "I can see strategically why Hezbollah wants more time on the disarmament question," said David Wood, a senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group. Not many options But, basically, the group does not have many options. "They can resist disarmament, became confrontational and risk that their supporters remain outside their [villages and homes], with no money for reconstruction," Wood told UPI. A report released by International Crisis Group on Thursday outlined three approaches for Hezbollah's disarmament: the group and its allies resist disarming; its opponents seek its swift and complete disarmament; and a gradual and negotiated process to shift the balance of power away from Hezbollah without provoking direct confrontation. A central objective will be convincing Hezbollah that "disarmament need not amount to the party's complete demise," according to the report. "That could be a long, slow path, but it has better odds of success than the alternatives." "All options are tricky for Hezbollah," Wood said. "They can compromise and even cooperate with disarmament, but what would that mean concerning the future of the party?" Is Hezbollah closer today to accepting the idea of relinquishing its weapons? That could happen, according to Jaber, the Lebanese military expert. But it would take time to agree with Hezbollah on a new defense strategy under which its fighters would join a paramilitary force within the Lebanese Army. It would also depend on whether U.S. President Donald Trump would "adopt a policy of compromise with Iran ... or push it into the corner with more sanctions," Wood said. In the meantime, Israel is not showing enough patience and is striking Hezbollah suspected targets almost every day. Iran is losing much of its influence in Lebanon, with President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam refusing "outside interferences" and declaring that the tiny country is going "neutral" and will not be part of any regional alliances. Hezbollah is adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding developments in the region. "It is waiting for opportunities [for a comeback] and if no opportunities present themselves, Hezbollah is going to end up just as a political party," Kahwaji said.
Russia Today
10-02-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
The next Israel-Hezbollah war is now unavoidable – and it will be worse
Another round of violence between Lebanon and Israel is not a matter of if, but when. Israel managed to extract a series of tactical victories from the war so far, but did not possess the capacity to defeat Hezbollah decisively. Now that Israel seeks to maintain freedom of action inside Lebanon, it threatens a much more violent outbreak than what was stopped by the November 27 ceasefire. Much of the analyses offered on the conflict between Lebanon and Israel, which erupted into a paroxysmal battle in September 2024, trace its origins back to October 8, 2023. However, this take is limited in its scope and also often misses key lessons from the history of the conflict. Understanding what shaped the Lebanon-Israel war A day after the Hamas-led October 7 attack against Israel, it became clear, through the public statements and actions of the Israelis, that the war they sought to launch was intended to inflict maximum collective punishment on the civilian population of Gaza. Although it often goes unrecognized due to the shocking effects of the Hamas raid, at least 413 Palestinians were killed inside Gaza that day, most of them civilians. The next day, the Lebanese group Hezbollah began opening fire on Israeli monitoring equipment set up in the illegally occupied Shebaa Farms area. After Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon and killed four Hezbollah members , the Lebanese armed group responded by opening fire on Israeli military sites and surveillance equipment on October 9. That same day, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared a 'complete siege' on Gaza and that ' we are fighting against human animals ' to justify blocking all food, water, and electricity from entering the territory. Read more Israel holds multiple Palestinian doctors captive. Some are already dead Understanding the gravity of what had just happened, Hezbollah's secretary general, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, understood that they were going to have to play a supporting role for the Palestinian armed groups in Gaza. However, the group did not want to drag Lebanon into a comprehensive war and repeatedly stressed this point. The one pledge that Nasrallah made was 'Hamas will win,' offering no other red lines. From October 8, 2023 to September 20, 2024, Israel was responsible for around 81% of all attacks between both sides , killing 752 people in Lebanon, while Hezbollah's attacks killed 33 Israelis. The last time a war was fought between Lebanon and Israel was in 2006, which began when Hezbollah conducted a raid and kidnapped Israeli soldiers. This war was well planned by Hezbollah and resulted in a victory for the group, as Israeli forces retreated from Lebanese territory. What made Hezbollah the first Arab force to claim a real victory over Israel in 2006 was down to the absolute power imbalance, in which a stalemate combined with tactical victories and a well executed plan made it a defeat of the Israeli military. After this, while Israeli forces committed thousands of violations of Lebanese sovereignty – by land, sea, and air – occasionally assassinating Hezbollah fighters in Syria that caused some brief border skirmishes, the two sides veered away from all-out war. In 2019, however, the Israelis began working on a new security fence/wall along the Lebanese border , which cut into and annexed land clearly demarcated to be on Lebanon's side of what is known as the Blue Line. In 2023, the most significant land grab was of the northern Ghajjar village, which was cut off from Lebanon and opened for Israelis to visit. In addition, Israeli forces repeatedly entered Lebanon in order to clear land between the fence and Lebanese farm lands, resulting in repeated standoffs. During the period from 2006 to 2023, Israel had been working at infiltrating Hezbollah and spying on the political party, while the Lebanese group significantly strengthened its military power. This is of great significance to the conflict that has taken place over the past 16 months, because Hezbollah in 2006 was somewhat comparable in power to Hamas at the start of the war in October 2023. Hezbollah was also born out of the conflict between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Israel, when the Israelis launched their invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The Israelis killed around 20,000 Palestinians and Lebanese in that war, which ended with a ceasefire due to the PLO's surrender and acceptance of deportation to Tunisia. Read more Israel's collateral killing of civilians is finally in the spotlight Yet, after the PLO's fighters and leadership left, Israel did not leave Lebanese territory and instead occupied the south of the country, while deploying its allied militias, including the Phalange Party, to massacre thousands of civilians in and around the Palestinian refugee camps. The lesson learned here for all future movements that would emerge to fight Israel, was that you never surrender your weapons; hence the Hamas slogan 'victory or martyrdom'. The single biggest achievement that Hezbollah recorded in its history was forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanese lands and give up on their occupation. Why war is inevitable It is clear that the war between Lebanon and Israel, which lasted nearly two months, was not one that Hezbollah was prepared for. Even after Israel's booby-trapped pager attacks, which injured thousands across Lebanon, including many civilians, the Lebanese group still sought to fight a limited battle, as evidenced by the speech given by Nasrallah at the time. However, Israel did not stop there and decided to kill most of Hezbollah's senior leadership, including Nasrallah, making a war unavoidable. As early as October 8, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was threatening Lebanon with the kind of destruction wrought on Gaza . While the assault that the Israelis launched was certainly devastating to the civilian population, killing nearly 2,000 people, it was clear that it had not decided to launch a Gaza-style attack. Meanwhile, Hezbollah began using heavier missiles from its vast arsenal, but was tame in its approach and was careful to make much of its strikes symbolic or aimed at military facilities. This had nothing to do with what either side may have liked to do, but there was strategic constraint, which appeared to be deteriorating into the final week prior to the ceasefire. By late November, Israel had failed to make meaningful advances on the ground in southern Lebanon and did not achieve its objective of reaching the Litani River area. Meanwhile, Hezbollah was not capable of equaling the level of destruction that Israel was committing against Lebanese cities using their missile strategy, it was also fighting essentially blindfolded and standing on one leg after the blows it suffered. Both sides realized that the inevitable result would be a stalemate, so in order to stop further devastation, a ceasefire was reached. After suffering a major disruption to its supply line through Syria, the loss of its leadership and many commanders, also battling to solve the issues of infiltration, Hezbollah was severely wounded, but not destroyed. While the Israeli tactical victories have now shifted the propaganda war to make Hezbollah appear to be on its last legs, it is far from done. In fact, it still maintains a formidable ground force of around 100,000 fighters, a domestic weapons production capacity, and an abundance of ammunition, which the Israeli military understands well. Read more Bloodshed and a hope for peace: What does 2025 hold for Israel and the Middle East? The loss of Nasrallah is not a small thing and still lingers in the minds of each and every supporter inside the country, many of whom still yearn for revenge after what was just committed against their nation. Israel proved incapable of beating Hamas after 15 months of all-out devastation, committing one of the worst atrocities since the Second World War. Hezbollah is still a much more capable fighting force than Hamas, yet there are a number of constraints on it due to the domestic political/economic/social situation inside Lebanon. If Israel chooses to stay inside Lebanese territory, for whatever reason, it will only be a matter of time before action is taken. The next round will also likely be much more bloody, and the death toll will make the conflict last year seem relatively insignificant in comparison. This may not happen in the immediate future and could even take over a year, but the conflict is far from over and that is because there isn't really a ceasefire in effect as of now. On November 27, Israel made a point of not only violating it from the first moments and later advancing further into southern Lebanon, it committed hundreds of violations of the ceasefire. Israel has made it very clear that the new reality is that it has full freedom of action and can remain inside pockets of southern Lebanon for as long as it chooses. Therefore, there will have to be a war to ensure that a real ceasefire is reached and Lebanese territory will not be open season for the Israeli military to bomb, shoot at, and kidnap civilians. Netanyahu is now bragging about changing the map of the surrounding region, while his new army chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, recently declared ' 2025 will continue to be a year of combat .' Israel is acting aggressively, expanding its borders, and does not appear to be backing down from its warmongering with Iran, which will lead to even greater chaos. Hezbollah will have to carefully navigate Lebanon's domestic terrain and when it acts, implement a well oiled plan if it chooses to retaliate against Israel's daily assaults on its country. All of the signs point to a dangerous escalation brewing.
