Latest news with #ShellyKaushik
Reuters
06-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar steadies as trade data meets expectations
Aug 5 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar was barely changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices fell and data showed a widening of the Canadian trade deficit that was close to expectations. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3775 per U.S. dollar, or 72.60 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3764 to 1.3810. Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened in June to C$5.9 billion ($4.24 billion) as imports grew faster than exports due to a one-time high-value oil equipment import. Analysts had predicted the deficit would increase to C$6.3 billion from a downwardly revised C$5.5 billion in May. "Despite the usual volatility, Canada's trade figures came in line with expectations for June," Shelly Kaushik, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. "While trade flows have recovered a touch from the spring, normalization is unlikely until the Canada-U.S. relationship stabilizes." The U.S. has increased tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25%, but products covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement are exempt from duties. About 90% of Canadian exports to the U.S. in May were exempt under that trade deal. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell 1.4% to $65.35 a barrel on rising OPEC+ supply and worries of weaker global demand, while the U.S. dollar steadied against a basket of major currencies. Canada's employment report for July, due on Friday, could offer further clues on the state of the domestic economy. A Reuters poll of economists expects a gain of 13,500 jobs. The Canadian 10-year yield was little changed at 3.382% after earlier touching its lowest level since July 7 at 3.360%.
Global News
05-08-2025
- Business
- Global News
Canada's trade with U.S. still ‘quite weak' despite June rise: economists
New data shows there was an increase in Canadian exports to its southern neighbour in June even amid ongoing U.S. tariffs, but economists say one month is too soon to say trade is rising with the Americans. The data, released Tuesday, shows exports to the U.S. increased 3.1 per cent in June after four consecutive months of decreases. Statistics Canada notes, however, exports were still down 12.5 per cent compared to June 2024. BMO economist Shelly Kaushik said in an interview that trade data can be volatile on a monthly basis. 'The data is also very highly susceptible to revision. That's something to keep in mind in general, but also especially when there are so many announcements in a lot of swings, we see things like tariff frontrunning impacting the data a lot on a monthly basis,' she said. Story continues below advertisement But it's not just products being sent to the U.S. that is on the rise. Imports from the U.S. were up 2.6 per cent in June — the first increase after three consecutive monthly decreases. According to Statistics Canada, the increase in imports was in large part due to the import of a module for an offshore oil project. As a result of exports rising more than imports, Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. rose from $3.6 billion in May to $3.9 billion in June. Kaushik said as April and May were fairly 'depressed' in reaction to the tariffs, so while June may have seen an increase it doesn't mean it's a substantial change. 5:35 Trump's Tariffs: Can an agreement still be reached? 'Increasing just a little bit from very, very weak levels still implies quite weak,' she said. Story continues below advertisement Canada continues to face a range of tariffs from the U.S. amid President Donald Trump's ongoing trade war. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy The U.S. has imposed a 50 per cent tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, as well as 25 per cent duties on the automobile industry and certain copper products. Last Friday, the U.S. also placed a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian goods on Friday, though the White House confirmed products under the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement (CUSMA) would remain exempt from the higher tariff. The White House added that goods transshipped through other countries to avoid the 35 per cent tariff will instead be charged a tariff of 40 per cent. 7:25 Trump tariffs could be less painful than expected, expert says RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen said that exemption is more important than an increase in trade. Story continues below advertisement 'I think the good news there is that most of our exports to the United States still have been able to access that market it appears duty-free through an exemption from duties for products that are compliant with the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement,' he said. Janzen said the U.S. census bureau found 92 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. crossed the border duty-free in June — an increase from 91 per cent in May and 89 per cent in April. Janzen, in a report published Tuesday, also noted the average effective tariff rate on imports from Canada remains one of the lowest on trading partners at 2.4 per cent. By comparison, the average U.S. rate on all imports was 8.9 per cent. However, he cautioned that rate will rise due to the newly-imposed 35 per cent tariff yet adds the increase will still only apply to a 'relatively small share' of non-CUSMA compliant exports. What could impact Canada on a wider scale, Janzen said, is how the U.S. import market could be impacted if bigger tariffs are imposed. 'If U.S. tariff hikes were so large globally that it hurts the U.S., particularly the very trade sensitive U.S. industrial sector, then if that happens that obviously has negative spillovers for Canada just because our industrial sector is so closely integrated with that of the United States,' Janzen said. Story continues below advertisement While Statistics Canada noted an increase in trade with the U.S., it also found exports to countries other than the U.S. dropped 4.1 per cent in June, after reaching a record high in May. It noted, however, compared to June 2024 exports to other countries were up 14.7 per cent. Overall, Canada's trade deficit with the world widened to $5.9 billion in June, up from $5.5 billion in May.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's inflation rate pulled back in April with the end of the carbon tax
Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 1.7 per cent in April, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada released Tuesday. Lower energy prices, with the removal of the carbon tax in many provinces, was a main driver. Analysts had expected a significant slowdown in April, with expectations for the annual rate to fall to 1.6 per cent, according to consensus estimates published by CIBC Economics. In a note to investors published Tuesday morning, BMO economist Shelly Kaushik said that the removal of the carbon tax was widely expected to be a major factor. "Over most of the last decade, April has been a seasonally strong month as that was when the carbon tax would increase... but now, its removal will show up in one fell swoop," she writes. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data follow March figures that slowed unexpectedly to 2.3 per cent from 2.6 per cent in February, as gasoline and travel costs dropped. This story will be updated. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Grim' retail sales underbelly points to Bank of Canada restarting rate cuts, economists say
Consumers loaded up on purchases in March to get ahead of tariffs imposed by the United States, but weakening discretionary and cyclical spending should convince the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates again, economists say. Retail sales in March increased 0.7 per cent month over month, according to Statistics Canada's advanced estimate released on Friday, which is the first increase of the year and a significant jump from the 0.4 per cent contraction in February. The results in February matched analysts estimates, but core sales, which exclude automobiles and gasoline, rose 0.5 per cent from January, outpacing estimates for a contraction of 0.2 per cent. David Rosenberg, an economist and founder of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said there was a 'grim message' embedded in the February data because 'cyclically sensitive spending tumbled 1.7 per cent, and that was after a 1.4 per cent decline the prior month.' That includes a 2.8 per cent drop in building materials spending, a 2.9 per cent decrease in furniture/appliances, which he called 'a signpost of the weakening trend in the Canadian housing sector,' and a 2.7 per cent drop in clothing sales, following a 1.2 per cent decline in January, which he equated to a decline in job prospects. He also said much of the gain in non-core items could be attributed to increases in food and pharmaceutical sales. Shelly Kaushik, a senior economist and vice-president of economics at BMO Economics, said the estimate for March is perhaps the bigger story since it reflects the anticipated increase in auto sales ahead of U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. But she said the bank expects significantly weaker numbers when the data excluding auto sales is released in May. U.S. President Donald Trump talked about imposing automotive tariffs during March and they took effect on April 3, with Canadian retaliatory measures announced on April 9. Given the ongoing flux of the tariff situation, February's results are 'a look in the rearview mirror,' Kaushik said in a note. First-quarter retail sales 'flatlined,' Katherine Judge, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note, which was a big drop from the 5.6 per cent annualized gain during the fourth quarter. She said lower gasoline prices didn't lead Canadians to spend their money elsewhere. Economists have forecasted a decent first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) 'handoff' to the second quarter, but they don't think that strength will last. Judge expects unemployment to rise due to 'sectoral' tariffs, as consumer and business sentiment continues to slump, providing the 'Bank of Canada with enough evidence of GDP weakness by the June meeting to cut by 25 basis points.' David Rosenberg: Bank of Canada has made a big mistake by being so timid Buy Canadian a top priority, Napoleon CEO says Rosenberg thinks a few more rate cuts are coming. 'This squishy soft environment, coupled with the elevated level of economic uncertainty, should be giving the Bank of Canada the green light to get back on the rate-cutting path and not stop until it minimally gets the policy rate to the very low end of the neutral range (2.25 per cent).' • Email: gmvsuhanic@
Bloomberg
05-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Markets 03/05/2025
"Bloomberg Markets" follows the market moves across every global asset class and discusses the biggest issues for Wall Street. Today's guests; BMO Senior Economist and Vice President Economics Shelly Kaushik, Bloomberg's Michael Shepard, David Welch, Norah Mulinda, and Denitsa Tsekova. (Source: Bloomberg)
