Latest news with #ShellyKaushik
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's inflation rate pulled back in April with the end of the carbon tax
Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 1.7 per cent in April, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada released Tuesday. Lower energy prices, with the removal of the carbon tax in many provinces, was a main driver. Analysts had expected a significant slowdown in April, with expectations for the annual rate to fall to 1.6 per cent, according to consensus estimates published by CIBC Economics. In a note to investors published Tuesday morning, BMO economist Shelly Kaushik said that the removal of the carbon tax was widely expected to be a major factor. "Over most of the last decade, April has been a seasonally strong month as that was when the carbon tax would increase... but now, its removal will show up in one fell swoop," she writes. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data follow March figures that slowed unexpectedly to 2.3 per cent from 2.6 per cent in February, as gasoline and travel costs dropped. This story will be updated. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Grim' retail sales underbelly points to Bank of Canada restarting rate cuts, economists say
Consumers loaded up on purchases in March to get ahead of tariffs imposed by the United States, but weakening discretionary and cyclical spending should convince the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates again, economists say. Retail sales in March increased 0.7 per cent month over month, according to Statistics Canada's advanced estimate released on Friday, which is the first increase of the year and a significant jump from the 0.4 per cent contraction in February. The results in February matched analysts estimates, but core sales, which exclude automobiles and gasoline, rose 0.5 per cent from January, outpacing estimates for a contraction of 0.2 per cent. David Rosenberg, an economist and founder of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said there was a 'grim message' embedded in the February data because 'cyclically sensitive spending tumbled 1.7 per cent, and that was after a 1.4 per cent decline the prior month.' That includes a 2.8 per cent drop in building materials spending, a 2.9 per cent decrease in furniture/appliances, which he called 'a signpost of the weakening trend in the Canadian housing sector,' and a 2.7 per cent drop in clothing sales, following a 1.2 per cent decline in January, which he equated to a decline in job prospects. He also said much of the gain in non-core items could be attributed to increases in food and pharmaceutical sales. Shelly Kaushik, a senior economist and vice-president of economics at BMO Economics, said the estimate for March is perhaps the bigger story since it reflects the anticipated increase in auto sales ahead of U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. But she said the bank expects significantly weaker numbers when the data excluding auto sales is released in May. U.S. President Donald Trump talked about imposing automotive tariffs during March and they took effect on April 3, with Canadian retaliatory measures announced on April 9. Given the ongoing flux of the tariff situation, February's results are 'a look in the rearview mirror,' Kaushik said in a note. First-quarter retail sales 'flatlined,' Katherine Judge, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note, which was a big drop from the 5.6 per cent annualized gain during the fourth quarter. She said lower gasoline prices didn't lead Canadians to spend their money elsewhere. Economists have forecasted a decent first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) 'handoff' to the second quarter, but they don't think that strength will last. Judge expects unemployment to rise due to 'sectoral' tariffs, as consumer and business sentiment continues to slump, providing the 'Bank of Canada with enough evidence of GDP weakness by the June meeting to cut by 25 basis points.' David Rosenberg: Bank of Canada has made a big mistake by being so timid Buy Canadian a top priority, Napoleon CEO says Rosenberg thinks a few more rate cuts are coming. 'This squishy soft environment, coupled with the elevated level of economic uncertainty, should be giving the Bank of Canada the green light to get back on the rate-cutting path and not stop until it minimally gets the policy rate to the very low end of the neutral range (2.25 per cent).' • Email: gmvsuhanic@
Bloomberg
05-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Markets 03/05/2025
"Bloomberg Markets" follows the market moves across every global asset class and discusses the biggest issues for Wall Street. Today's guests; BMO Senior Economist and Vice President Economics Shelly Kaushik, Bloomberg's Michael Shepard, David Welch, Norah Mulinda, and Denitsa Tsekova. (Source: Bloomberg)
Reuters
21-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canada December retail sales up 2.5%, beating market expectations
OTTAWA, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Canada's retail sales in December grew by a robust 2.5% on a monthly basis, beating analysts' expectations, as a sales tax holiday bumped up spending on food and beverages and people also bought cars and vehicle parts, data showed on Friday. Retail sales in December are usually higher due to the holiday season. Economists said the government's sales tax break, which kicked off in mid-December and ended February 15, also boosted revenues. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would rise by 1.6% on a month-on-month basis and by 1.8% excluding automotive and parts sales. Retail sales jumped by 2.5% even after sales of automotive parts and at dealerships were excluded, Statistics Canada said. Retail sales are considered an early indicator of gross domestic product growth and contribute almost 40% to total consumer spending, which was primarily responsible for keeping Canada's economy growing in the third quarter. The Bank of Canada has cut its key policy rate more aggressively than other major central banks. Since June, it has slashed rates by a cumulative 200 basis points to 3% to boost the economy as inflation eased consistently. "Even if the momentum (of retail sales) fades into the new year, these figures add to the argument for the Bank of Canada to pause at next month's meeting," Shelly Kaushik, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note. Currency swap markets now see a more than 68% chance of no rate cut on March 12, although economists have said expectations for the trajectory of interest rates could change if U.S. President Donald Trump slaps a 25% tariff on Canadian imports in March. January's retail numbers, collected from a survey of half of the respondents normally polled for monthly data, showed that sales likely dropped by 0.4%, a flash estimate by Statistics Canada said. December's growth in sales, with revenues picking up across all nine subsectors, came on the back of flat sales in November. In volume terms, sales increased 2.5% in December. Canada's fourth quarter GDP numbers will be published on February 28 and expectations are that the economy grew by an annualized 1.7%. Retail sales were up 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking a second consecutive quarterly increase, the statistics agency said. Sales at food and beverage retailers, the second biggest contributor to the sales figure with a fifth of the share, increased by 3.5%. This sector was also the biggest beneficiary of the sales tax holiday. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, the biggest contributor to retail sales, grew by 1.9%. Total retail sales clocked in at C$69.59 billion ($49.05 billion). ($1 = 1.4189 Canadian dollars)
