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Strait of Hormuz: Will Iran shut the vital oil artery of the world?
Shweta Singh As tensions escalate following Israeli strikes on Iran, fears rise that Tehran could choke the Strait of Hormuz, which is significant for its strategic location. What does this imply for countries like India and for the broader geopolitical landscape? The Strait of Hormuz sees roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil, and oil products shipments,. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo Gift this article As tensions escalate following Israeli strikes on Iran, fears rise that Tehran could choke the Strait of Hormuz. However, patterns in history indicate that while there might be temporary disruption in maritime traffic, Iran might refrain from choking the Strait of Hormuz, as it will pinch its friends more than its enemies. As tensions escalate following Israeli strikes on Iran, fears rise that Tehran could choke the Strait of Hormuz. However, patterns in history indicate that while there might be temporary disruption in maritime traffic, Iran might refrain from choking the Strait of Hormuz, as it will pinch its friends more than its enemies. Mint explains why the Strait of Hormuz is significant geopolitically, and economically and what it means for India and Iran-US talks. Why is the Strait of Hormuz significant geopolitically and economically? The Strait of Hormuz is significant for its strategic location. It lies between Oman and Iran, linking the sea passage from the countries on the Gulf (Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) with the Arabian Sea and beyond. The strait is only 33 km wide at its narrowest point. According to available statistics, it sees roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil, and oil products shipments, and accounts for nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Further, one-third of the world's liquified natural gas LNG passes through the route. The maritime sea lanes, as the critical outlet for Gulf countries, are watched by the US Navy's Fifth Fleet based in Manama, Bahrain. The Strait of Hormuz is the vital oil artery for the world, and any disruptions, or even temporary closure, will send global oil shocks across the world. Will Tehran, or can Tehran, actually shut the Strait of Hormuz? With the Israeli air strikes on its military and nuclear establishments, Tehran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz. But will it do so? Or is Iran using Hormuz as bargaining chip that leverages the fears of global oil shock and oil vulnerability of its friends, and enemies alike? While there could be some disruption- Iran might actually refrain from a full-scale blockade. There are three significant reasons why Iran might not actually do so, even while signalling that it might do so rhetorically. First, it will hurt Iran's friend, China, the world second-largest economy, and Iran's largest trading partner. China, is number one importer of oil, accounting for nearly three quarter of its oil export. So China, will not like to see any disruption in its maritime oil shipments, and might actually use its economic leverage with Iran to prevent Iran from closure of the narrow lane. Second, it will rupture Iran's relationship with Oman (which owns the southern half of the strait) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC States). With Oman, careful crafting of a relationship has resulted in greater dependency for Iran on a wide range of issues. Further, Oman has been a strong advocate of freedom of navigation in the sea passage. On the other hand, while there has been a history of difficult relationships between GCC states, in the recent past, there has been a détente of sorts, and Iran risks a fallout if it were to close the Strait of Hormuz. Third, domestically this might not work for the interest of the regime, as any economic hits or closure of its oil exporting terminal, will see a surge in prices, and fuel popular discontent, which might impact both regime stability, and reformist tendencies for President Masoud Pezeshkian. Also Read: Javier Blas: An Israel-Iran war may not rattle the oil market Where does this leave US-Iran talk? The US is giving clear indications that it will attend Sunday's talks with Iran in Oman with a focus on limiting Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb- a move that Iran has vehemently resisted. While the US claims it has no role or remains unaware of Israel's strikes on Tehran, the timing of the strikes raises a pertinent question. This comes just before the crucial 15 June talks between the US and Iran in Oman. While the US and Trump deny any role, it remains doubtful that Netanyahu and Israel would act without a green signal from the US. So, it seems the attacks serve a dual purpose, for the US, it pushes Tehran to re-engage in talks with the US that it has put on the slow burner in the past few weeks. For Israel, a tacit US support in any case works, given it sees Iran, and its nuclear programme as an existential threat. Further, Netanyahu, would anyway want to see the collapse of the deal between US and Iran, and has for the longest time opposed it. However, despite strategic denials by the US, the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists, and the reported wounding of one of its negotiators many actually convince a anyways belligerent to Iran, to walk down the path towards a nuclear weapon to build its own nuclear deterrence. Will China rein in Iran? In the recent past, China has strategically drawn in Iran into the Belt and Road Initiative, which Tehran joined in 2019. China has been working to build new connectivity opportunities, for instance, railway projects for Iran that serve two significant aims: first, it provides opportunities for bringing in Central Asian countries and Iran into the connectivity matrix. And second, it helps counter US hegemony, and can offset the US sanctions that are imposed time and again. In the moment of the current crisis, if Hormuz is choked, China will be hit, given it's the largest exporter of Iranian Oil. So China, might actually reign in Iran, given its impending economic interest, and disruption in global oil supply chain, will impede its own economic interest first and foremost. Also Read | Israel's war on Iran to hit Indian workforce What will this mean for India? For India, over two-thirds of its oil imports and nearly half of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This surely puts India in a tight spot, given that any disruption in the global supply chain will hit India, particularly in the LNG sector—given that it imports a major chunk of its LNG from Qatar and UAE. According to available reports, January-November 2024, India imported 9.82 million tonnes of LNG from Qatar, which accounted for 38.8 per cent of India's overall LNG imports. So, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a chunk of LNG exported by Qatar and the UAE passes, will hit countries like India. Further, in the recent past, India has strengthened strategic ties with Israel, particularly in the sectors of defence, intelligence, and technology. For India, it is tightrope walk, given the need to do a balancing act between Israel and Iran. Further in terms of India's connectivity interest, both Chabahar port and IMEC corridor anyway stand in a freeze mode, given the ever-growing tensions between Israel and Iran. Shweta Singh is an associate professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of International Studies, South Asian University. Topics You May Be Interested In
Time of India
06-05-2025
- Time of India
'60 died in past month': Ukrainian accused of killing monkeys with air gun near sacred Govardhan Parikrama route
AGRA: At least 12 monkeys were found dead and several others injured under suspicious circumstances in Anyour village near Govind Kund, Mathura district, on Monday. The incident occurred under the jurisdiction of the Goverdhan police station. According to locals, a Ukrainian national residing at the Radha Madan Mohan Das Ashram shot the monkeys using an air gun around 11am. Residents claimed that nearly 60 monkeys have died in the area over the past month. Following the incident, police officials called a team from the local veterinary hospital. The dead monkeys were sent for postmortem, examination while veterinary staff treated the injured animals. Dr Shweta Singh of the Goverdhan Veterinary Hospital said, "The Police informed us about the case. At the scene, we found three to four injured monkeys. During first aid, we found pellet-like objects embedded in the heads of monkeys, suggesting injuries caused by an air gun." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Learn How Smart Traders Use Data to Navigate Volatile Markets Trader Headline Learn More Undo Goverdhan station house officer (SHO)Ravi Tyagi confirmed that two men - Janki Das and Braj Sundar Das (a Ukrainian national) - were taken into custody. The Ukrainian suspect has reportedly been staying in Mathura since July 2024, on a visa valid until July this year. Both the accused have been booked under IPC Section 325 (voluntarily causing grievous hurt), Section 351(3) (criminal intimidation), and Section 11 of the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act, 1960. Mathura SP (Rural) Trigun Bisen told TOI, "The postmortem report is expected by tomorrow, and further action will be based on the findings." A local resident said, "There are forests on both sides of the Goverdhan-Parikrama marg. We often saw dead monkeys and assumed they died naturally. But this incident suggests they may have been deliberately killed.
Time of India
05-05-2025
- Time of India
Ukrainian & aide held for killing 12 monkeys using air gun in Mathura
AGRA: At least 12 monkeys were found dead and several others injured in Anyour village in Mathura on Monday. Locals alleged that a Ukrainian national residing at the Radha Madan Mohan Das Ashram shot the monkeys using an air gun around 11am. Residents claimed that nearly 60 monkeys have died in the area over the past month. Following the incident, police called a team from the local veterinary hospital. The dead monkeys were sent for postmortem, while veterinary staff treated the injured animals, reports Sudeep Lavania. Dr Shweta Singh of the Goverdhan Veterinary Hospital said, "At the scene, we found three to four injured monkeys. During first aid, we found pellet-like objects embedded in their heads, suggesting injuries caused by an air gun." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like The Cost Of Amusement Park Equipment From Mexico Might Surprise You Amusement Park Equipment | search ads Click Here Undo Goverdhan SHO Ravi Tyagi confirmed that two men - Janki Das and Braj Sundar Das (a Ukrainian national) - were taken into custody. The Ukrainian suspect has reportedly been staying in Mathura since July 2024, on a visa valid until July this year. Both individuals have been booked under IPC Section 325 (voluntarily causing grievous hurt), Section 351(3) (criminal intimidation), and Section 11 of the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act , 1960. Mathura SP (Rural) Trigun Bisen told TOI, "The postmortem report is expected by tomorrow, and further action will be based on the findings."
Time of India
26-04-2025
- Time of India
Longer west flights: DGCA issues ‘mandatory guidance' for Indian carriers
NEW DELHI: Indian carriers operating flights between north India, which means primarily Delhi, and the west have been asked to inform passengers at check-in time about rerouting, longer flying time and the possibility of a enroute halt for refuelling the aircraft and crew change. Following the closure of Pakistan airspace for Indian airlines that will lead to 'extended flight durations and technical stops', the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has issued 'mandatory guidance' regarding 'passenger handling measures.' 'Passengers will generally remain onboard such stops,' says the advisory issued by DGCA CFO Captain Shweta Singh. 'Airlines must ensure that catering uplift is revised based on actual travel time (including technical halt). This includes: adequate meals and beverages for the full duration. Additional hydration and dry snacks. Special meals as per requests.' Airlines have been asked to ensure the enroute technical halt airports have 'emergency medical support and ground ambulance'. Cabin crew will be briefed about 'passenger fatigue, discomfort, and medical incidents.' Indian carriers that have flights between Delhi, Amritsar, Chandigarh & Lucknow and the west — UAE, CIS, West Asia, Europe, UK and North America — include Air India Group, IndiGo and SpiceJet. Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Chungcheongnam-do: AI guru Andrew Ng recommends: Read These 5 Books And Turn Your Life Aroun... Blinkist: Andrew Ng's Reading List Undo Akasa flies to the Gulf from Mumbai. Flights to & from the west and south, west and east India not impacted by Pakistan airspace closure. Air India may need to take a fuelling and crew change halt for its Delhi-North America/Europe/UK flights. 'Our North America nonstops may remain so or take a fuelling halt enroute depending on the conditions each day, each flight. Which means on a given day how are the wind flows and aircraft loads like, tha call will be taken," said an AI official. Senior pilots say they used to avoid headwinds while taking the Delhi-north Pakistan-Hindukush route to the west. This route was being taken ever since Afghan airspace was closed for civilian flights since Aug 2021 Taliban taking over that country. Closure of Pakistan airspace means flights between north India and the west will go close to Mumbai and Ahmedabad; then turn right over the Arabian Sea to head to Muscat and then fly to their destination. "This time of the year sees strong headwinds here which we till now avoiding with the Hindukush route," say pilots. Longer routes mean airfares for new bookings could rise by 30-40%. The DGCA advisory has asked airlines to be prepared in terms of establishing protocols for passengers who miss their onward connections and also for 'compensatory action in case of delays beyond threshold (that trigger the same). Indian airlines are badly hit by the closure of Pakistan airspace financially. Longer routes means higher operational expenses in terms of fuel burn, alternate airport stopover, crew requirement among others. AI is the only Indian carriers that flies to North America, Europe and the UK and will find its expenses skyrocketing. IndiGo has had to suspend its Baku and Almaty flights as the longer routes supposed to be taken now meant they became out of range for its current fleet of Airbus A320 family of planes. Following IAF's Balakot airstrike in 2019, Pakistan airspace was closed from Feb 27 to July 19 of that year. Indian airlines had then suffered Rs 700 crore in losses due to the same, with AI accounting for the lion's share in this. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Master Value & Valuation with ET! Learn to invest smartly & decode financials. Limited seats at 33% off – Enroll now!
