Latest news with #SiebertFinancial
Axios
a day ago
- Business
- Axios
China's trade war gambit puts Trump on defense
If international trade is a game of chess, China has the U.S. in check — with few good options for the next move. Why it matters: The trade war has exposed just how deeply the U.S. economy is at the mercy of an accident of geology — China's supply of the rare earth minerals that power our modern high-tech society. The big picture: China's control of the global rare earths supply has left the U.S. playing defense in a trade war of its own design. China loosening up on rare earths exports was a key part of the trade truce the two countries struck in mid-May. But its slow-walking of those exports is now at the heart of another breakdown in the relationship. Between the lines: The White House says President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping will get on the phone and sort it out, but the call hasn't happened yet, and the Chinese side won't even confirm it's happening. Trump already hinted the call might not result in a breakthrough, posting to Truth Social that Xi was "extremely difficult" to negotiate with. Whatever leverage the Trump administration thought it had going into a spree of "90 deals in 90 days" has thus far not delivered much, and now courts are threatening to stand in the president's way. State of play: The U.S. economy has been resilient thus far, defying predictions of immediate tariff chaos. But new signs suggest private-sector hiring is weakening, and supply chains are breaking down. Consumer prices are starting to rise, manufacturers' profits are being squeezed, and the specter of inflation looms larger by the day. Factories are beginning to shut down because they can't get the necessary components, and some companies are reportedly considering the extraordinary step of shipping their unfinished products to China to add the components there. None of that was the point of the trade war; most of it is the exact opposite. Zoom out: Typically, these sorts of fundamental reorderings of an economy don't happen in real time — businesses plan on long-term cycles, governments build out policy infrastructures, and changes happen in something resembling an orderly fashion. Not now. "The economy is somewhat of a living organism. It does not sit still. It adjusts; it reacts ... it changes over time," Siebert Financial chief investment officer Mark Malek wrote Wednesday. "Unfortunately, we are all hoping for a short-term solution to a long-term challenge." The intrigue: In absolute terms, rare earths imports are small, about $190 million a year, per government data. But if you buy any of a list of more than 200 products, from cell phones to lasers, then you're buying something that can't be built without rare earths. Reality check: China's economy is facing its own challenges, and the trade war isn't exactly helping there either. The Chinese government is scrambling to increase domestic consumption, with mixed results. The Trump administration's position is that China can't hold out economically and needs access to the American consumer. While China may have its rare earths to use as a cudgel, the U.S. believes it has weapons, too — like choking off China's largest export market. Efforts to secure an alternate supply chain of minerals have also gained steam, as the Trump administration and both parties in Congress quietly assemble the pieces of a comprehensive policy, including permitting reform, new global partnerships and trade investigations. Those efforts may give the U.S. side some confidence that even if the Chinese can use their minerals as leverage, that won't last forever. For the record: "The United States and China, as the two largest economies in the world, have a critical economic relationship that has global ramifications," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement. "The Trump administration remains committed to levelling the playing field for American industries and workers by negotiating with China to obtain more reciprocal and balanced bilateral trade relations." The bottom line: "Trade wars are good, and easy to win," Trump once said — but at the moment, China has the U.S. economy in check, with the clock ticking loudly on the next move.
Business Insider
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Siebert Financial files $100M mixed securities shelf
16:18 EDT Siebert Financial (SIEB) files $100M mixed securities shelf Confident Investing Starts Here: Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>>
Bloomberg
15-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Stocks Dip as Risk Appetite Fades; US-Iran Near Nuclear Deal
US equity futures fall as enthusiasm for Wall Street's rally fades. Oil prices fall as President Trump says Washington is nearing a nuclear deal with Tehran. Trump also says that India has offered to drop all tariffs on US goods. Shares of UnitedHealth dip after a report on the firm's criminal investigation. Ella Hoxha of Newton Investment Management discusses the bond market looking increasingly nervous about the fiscal element of US politics. Mark Malek of Siebert Financial says investors shouldn't ignore the dorsal fin of goods inflation rising to the surface. 'Bloomberg Brief' delivers the market news, data and analysis you need to set your agenda. (Source: Bloomberg)
Epoch Times
09-05-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
How to Keep Your Finances in Check During a Recession
If you're concerned about the future of the economy and the potential for a recession on the horizon, you're not alone. The consumer confidence index dropped by 7.9 points in April to 86, according to an Why is this important? 'Consumer confidence is necessary for a strong economy, and that confidence in many ways is declining,' Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, said in an email. 'Does it portend a recession? Well, not with enough statistical significance for me to recommend that you bury canned foods in your backyard, but it should put us on notice that things can get worse.' But even if things do get worse and we cross into recession territory, there are ways to safeguard your finances. Revisit Your Budget Money can be especially tight during a recession, especially when coupled with periods of high inflation and low income prospects. 'Expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations,' Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a news release. Related Stories 5/4/2025 4/26/2025 So it may be time to review your budget and identify areas you can cut back on and boost savings. Maybe you have subscription services you're not using often enough or at all. Or you can find free alternatives. But even moves like cutting back on dining out can save you a good sum of money. In fact, the average meal at an inexpensive restaurant costs nearly 285 percent more than eating at home, or $16.28 versus $4.23 per meal, according to research by But cutting back on future purchases can also help. You may find it's not too stressful to delay a vacation or a large purchase like a new car. Stack Up Your Emergency Savings As you cut back on expenses and increase savings, you may want to move them to a high-yield emergency fund. Most financial advisors recommend you have at least six months' worth of essential expenses in an emergency fund. These days, you can find several online banks offering high-yield savings accounts paying close to 5 percent APY. To put this into perspective, the average savings account rate is 0.41 percent, according to data from the Seek Unemployment Benefits If You Need Them Recessions are often defined by sharp increases in unemployment. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2 percent, according to the latest 'Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession,' Guichard said. So if you lose your job, you may want to seek unemployment benefits as soon as possible. The process and its length vary greatly by state. You may want to gather the following documents to be ready to file a claim. Last few pay stubs Previous tax return Documentation regarding any severance pay Address, phone number, and dates of your former employer It's important to make filing a priority if you lose your job, as it can take some time before you receive any benefits for which you may qualify. For the most updated information, visit the official Department of Labor Avoid Digging Into Your Retirement Funds When money is tight, it may be tempting to crack open your retirement nest egg. But there are some consequences. If you withdraw cash from a traditional 401(k) or individual retirement account (IRA) before reaching age 59.5, the distribution would trigger income taxes and a 10 percent early withdrawal penalty. This would also erase those savings from your retirement fund and prevent that money from benefiting from compound interest. Pay Off High-Interest Debt High-interest debt, such as credit card debt, can really pile up during a recession. In fact, credit card balances grew by $45 billion from the previous quarter to reach $1.21 trillion by the end of December, according to the latest But the Federal Reserve tends to cut interest rates during recessions. And the Fed is still proposing interest rate cuts in 2025. So it may be a good time to pay off debt with a fixed-interest personal loan. The average interest rate on a personal loan is about 11.7 percent, according to the latest On the other hand, the average The Bottom Line There's a lot of talk in economic circles about a looming recession. But there are steps you can take to weather the storm of a recession, such as reviewing your budget, boosting savings, and paying down high-interest debt through consolidation. The Epoch Times copyright © 2025. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.
Axios
30-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Weeks of trade ripples threaten long disruption
President Trump's global trade war is only a few weeks old, but even if it stopped today, the effect on supply chains could eventually be measured in months and years. Why it matters: The U.S. economy is at risk of repeating pandemic-era scenes of empty shelves and shortages of popular goods. And while the solution last time was "stop the virus," this time it might be even more complicated, because the problem stacks erratic policy on top of fragile supply chains. What they're saying: "We are in a period of unprecedented disruption that's not going to stop," says Bryan Gross, principal in operations transformation at PwC. This period goes back to the pandemic and runs through today's global economic unrest. "I think we are surely out of equilibrium," Gross says. The big picture: Over the last week, retail CEOs, economists and key advisers to Trump have said the U.S. is roughly two to three weeks from some shortages of goods due to an effective trade embargo with China. (Not everyone agrees the situation is that dire, yet as Gross notes, imbalances are already evident.) Any short-term gaps are just a preview of the long-term situation, as businesses start to cancel orders for back-to-school season, Halloween, Christmas and beyond. Gary Cohn, a key adviser in Trump 1.0, put the conundrum this way on CBS "Face the Nation" as he described the toy industry and its inability to absorb 145% tariffs: "They're either going out of business, or they're just going to wait and see what happens." How it works: Commerce takes time. Even for companies with established business relationships, goods have to be manufactured, transported to port, loaded into a container and onto ships, cross the Pacific, dock at a U.S. port, be offloaded, transferred to a truck, driven to a distribution point, then eventually delivered to retail. That chain, experts say, takes multiple weeks even if everything goes well. Between the lines: But even before then, businesses have to plan for the future, forecast demand, come up with capital, place orders, and so on. That's difficult to do in an environment of on-again, off-again tariffs, and a trade war between two countries that can't even publicly agree whether or not they're talking with each other. "It is critical to realize that just about everything that we purchase in the US in some way relies on a supply chain that starts outside of the US," Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, writes in a note. "Hopefully those negotiations can be wrapped up quickly, because, as we learned in the pandemic, shutting down and restarting a supply takes a toll" on prices and consumers, he adds. For the record: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted Tuesday that retailers had planned for tariff disruptions. "I wouldn't think that we would have supply chain shocks," he said at a White House briefing. "I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this." Reality check: Things can change. "We're still so early in the process that any type of major change could keep anything from compiling," Jason Miller, interim chair of the supply chain management department at Michigan State's Broad School of Business, tells Axios. But Miller says the inflection point is coming by early summer, and even if all imports don't stop, variety will decline as buyers make tough decisions about what's worth trying to sell in a higher-cost environment. "The shelves are not going to be as stocked as they were, that is for sure." The intrigue: A supply shock can easily become a demand shock, with much the same complication. If tariffs are suddenly lifted and everyone rushes to place orders to restock their shelves, factories and supply chains will bottleneck trying to fulfill that demand. "You're looking at still not getting stuff for potentially months on end after that," Miller says. The bottom line: The clock is ticking loudly.
