Latest news with #SilverBulletinSubstack
Newsweek
02-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Net Approval Positive on Only One Key Issue
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump's net approval rating is negative on a range of issues except immigration, a new poll shows. According to political analyst and statistician Nate Silver, writing in his Silver Bulletin Substack, Trump has a net negative approval rating on trade, the economy and inflation but a slightly positive rating on immigration. Why It Matters Taking the temperature of the nation, approval ratings are good measures of the public's response to Trump's policies and his actions as president. In the first few months of his second term, Trump's popularity has fluctuated, with some polls more favorable than others. Sustained backlash to his policies could persuade the president to change his approach. Trump, who made immigration a central part of his campaign, has vowed to crack down on border security, carry out mass deportations and end federal benefits for people residing in the country illegally. President Donald Trump speaking with reporters in the rain after arriving on Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on May 30. President Donald Trump speaking with reporters in the rain after arriving on Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on May 30. AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson What To Know Silver aggregated dozens of recent polls and found that Trump's approval rating on immigration was +2.5 percent. The president did not fare as well on other issues, with a -9.5 percent approval rating on trade, -11.3 percent on the economy and -17.5 percent on inflation. May polling conducted by Verasight U.S. for Strength in Numbers found similar results, with Americans disapproving of the president's handling of all the policy areas they were asked about except border security. That poll also found that 49 percent disapproved of his immigration policy, while 47 percent approved. Overall, Silver found that when analyzing the polls, Trump had a -5.4 net approval rating. An RMG Research/Napolitan News poll, conducted between May 14 and 21 among 3,000 registered voters, showed Trump's approval rating at 48 percent, with 50 percent disapproving. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Other polls have found a more positive response to the president. According to a recent Rasmussen survey, 53 percent of respondents said they approved of Trump, while 46 percent said they disapproved. What People Are Saying Scott Lucas, a professor in international politics at University College Dublin, previously cautioned against reading too much into any one poll, telling Newsweek: "Opinion polls have their own biases." President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on April 20: "We are, together, going to make America bigger, better, stronger, wealthier, healthier, and more religious, than it has ever been before!!!" What Happens Next The midterm elections, scheduled for November 2026, may offer a clearer indication of voters' attitudes toward the president's policies.
Yahoo
18-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Nate Silver Makes Shocking Prediction for Dems' 2028 Nominee
Political analyst Nate Silver predicts Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the most likely candidate to top the 2028 Democratic presidential ticket. In a video and newsletter published to his Silver Bulletin Substack Thursday, Silver, along with former FiveThirtyEight podcast host Galen Druke, both landed on AOC. 'I think there's a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,' Druke said, pointing to a recent Yale University poll that found AOC to have one of the highest favorability ratings among Democrats, second only to former Vice President Kamala Harris. 'Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party.' 'I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support,' Druke continued. 'I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028 and it's going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin.' Silver agreed with 'everything' Druke had to say, but did note that AOC isn't 'sure to run.' Druke pointed to AOC's 'Fighting Oligarchy Tour' with Sen. Bernie Sanders as an indicator that she may be looking to run for presidency in response. 'I think she's going to run,' Druke said. 'If you've been following her moves in terms of her 'Fight Oligarchy' tour, in terms of the kind of content she's putting out on social media.' Silver is a veteran election and poll analyst. Although he missed the mark and predicted Harris to win the 2024 presidential race, Silver accurately anticipated that the winning candidate would have a 'clean sweep' and win each swing state on election night.
Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
AOC presidential buzz grows amid blockbuster crowds, fundraising
NEW YORK — Buzz is building around a potential 2028 presidential run by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the progressive lawmaker smashes fundraising records and draws record crowds to rallies in red states. Polling guru Nate Silver on Thursday even predicted Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, will be the next Democratic nominee for the White House. 'I thought I was gonna surprise everyone by taking AOC first,' Silver tweeted, referring to the fact that his colleague Galen Druke also placed Ocasio-Cortez on top of his own early 2028 list. 'That was going to be my … first pick,' he added. Silver and Druke agreed Ocasio-Cortez has the charisma and popularity to make a huge splash in the still-embryonic Democratic White House race, citing her impressive polling and fundraising numbers. 'There's a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,' Druke said on the Silver Bulletin Substack podcast. 'Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party.' Ocasio-Cortez, 35, who represents parts of the Bronx and Queens in Congress, has remarkably high name recognition and popularity among Democratic voters nationwide. She recently smashed her own fundraising record by raking in $9.6 million in the first quarter of 2025 for her congressional reelection campaign. The impressive haul included average donations of $21 and 266,000 individual donors, nearly two-thirds of whom were first-time givers, figures that reflect wide and growing appeal among voters. Ocasio-Cortez is headlining a string of major political rallies alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, drawing overflow crowds of more than 10,000 in deep-red states like Utah, Idaho and Montana. In a possible preview of a White House pitch, Ocasio-Cortez touted herself as a former waitress who knows how to turn the political establishment on its head. 'I know that it can look or feel impossible sometimes out here for the Republicans to be defeated, but that is not true,' Ocasio-Cortez said. 'From the waitress who is now speaking to you today, I can tell you: impossible is nothing.' Ocasio-Cortez, who only recently became old enough to serve as president, had already been mentioned as a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Chuck Schumer, who faces reelection in 2028. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has topped most Democratic White House lists, although she is said to be leaning towards running for governor of California. Harris' running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is also thought to be testing the presidential waters, along with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer. _____
