Latest news with #SimonRubinsohn
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UK house sales fall as stamp duty break hits demand
The UK housing market continued to lose momentum in April, with both buyer demand and completed sales falling as the stamp duty holiday came to an end. According to the latest residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), a net balance of -33% of respondents reported a decline in new buyer enquiries, as higher transaction costs prompted many would-be homeowners to pause their plans. It is the third consecutive month demand has dropped. Sales volumes also dropped, with a net balance of -31% reporting a fall in agreed transactions — the weakest reading since mid-2023. 'Although geopolitical developments haven't helped the mood music in the residential market over the past month, the main reason for the dip in the key RICS sales activity metrics lies in the expiry of the stamp duty holiday at the end of March,' said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS. Stamp duty discounts became less generous for some home buyers from 1 April. Stamp duty applies in England and Northern Ireland. Read more: How to plan for retirement and track your pension pot income Short-term expectations remain subdued, with a net balance of -15% expecting further declines in sales over the next three months. However, Rubinsohn suggested the medium-term outlook may be improving. 'Near term expectations indicators suggest the subdued trend will persist for the next few months at least, but looking beyond this, the results are more encouraging, reflecting in part the prospect of deeper interest rate cuts than previously anticipated,' he said. House prices held steady in April, slipping slightly into negative territory with a net balance of -3%, down from +2% the previous month. While caution persists in the near term — a net balance of -21% of respondents anticipate downward pressure over the next quarter — the longer-term outlook is more resilient. A net balance of +39% of survey participants expect prices to return to growth over the coming year. On the supply side, new instructions to sell remained essentially flat, with a net balance of +6% — unchanged from March. The flow of property appraisals, a key indicator of upcoming listings, rose only marginally, suggesting no significant change in supply conditions in the near term. Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agent Knight Frank, said: 'Despite a predictable lull in April following the stamp duty cliff edge, demand in the UK housing market is relatively robust. Read more: Bank of England expected to cut interest rates 'The tariff turbulence means the Bank of England is expected to cut rates more quickly, which means more sub-4% mortgages have appeared although demand would falter if things got too bumpy.'
The Independent
08-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
‘Home buyer inquiries and sales fall' as buyers adjust to stamp duty changes
Home buyer inquiries and sales fell in April, after a stamp duty holiday expired and as economic uncertainty continued to weigh on confidence, surveyors have reported. Stamp duty discounts became less generous for some home buyers from April 1. Stamp duty applies in England and Northern Ireland. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said that new buyer interest declined for the third month in a row, with a net balance of 33% of property professionals reporting a fall in inquiries rather than an increase. This reflects growing caution from prospective buyers alongside affordability pressures and tight borrowing conditions, Rics said. A net balance of 31% of property professionals saw a fall in sales agreed rather than a rise. This was the weakest figure recorded since August 2023, pointing to a subdued spring market, the report said. More positively, a net balance of 17% of surveyors expect sales to rise over the year ahead. A net balance of 39% of professionals expect house prices to increase over the year ahead. Looking at the lettings market, tenant demand increased in the three months to April according to the report, while a decline in new landlord instructions remained evident, suggesting that rents will rise over the next few months. Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said: 'Although geopolitical developments haven't helped the mood music in the residential market over the past month, the main reason for the dip in the key Rics sales activity metrics lies in the expiry of the stamp duty holiday at the end of March. 'Near-term expectations indicators suggest the subdued trend will persist for the next few months at least, but looking beyond this, the results are more encouraging reflecting in part the prospect of deeper interest rate cuts than previously anticipated. 'More problematic, however, is the negative feedback in the survey around supply in the rental market. With demand continuing to grow, there appears little relief in store for tenants in terms of the upward pressure on rents.' Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: 'Despite a predictable lull in April following the stamp duty cliff edge, demand in the UK housing market is relatively robust. 'The tariff turbulence means the Bank of England is expected to cut rates more quickly, which means more sub-4% mortgages have appeared although demand would falter if things got too bumpy.' Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent, said: 'Over the past month or so, we have noticed considerably more tenant interest but a resistance to paying higher rents. 'However, lack of supply, particularly of one and two bedroom flats in more popular areas, often prompted by landlords deciding not to renew, is preventing a more marked downturn in values.'
Belfast Telegraph
24-04-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
Demand for NI office and industrial space up for first time in two years
That's according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Commercial Property Monitor for the first quarter of the year. A net of 6% of NI respondents reported a rise in overall occupier demand, with both office and industrial space seeing an increase. The last time this net balance was in positive territory was quarter two 2023. A net balance of 6% saw a rise in office space and a net balance of 25% in industrial. And respondents expect rents to increase in the short-term, according to the survey. 'A net balance of 17% expect rents to rise at an all-sector level over the next three months, which is the highest this balance has been since 2018,' it said. 'Rents in both the office and industrial sub-sectors are anticipated to rise through the next quarter (net balances of 6% and 56% respectively). Garrett O'Hare, RICS NI commercial property spokesperson and managing director of Bradley NI said: 'The commercial property market in Northern Ireland continued to face challenges with a variety of highs and lows depending on the asset class and location. 'The industrial sector continues to outperform the other subsectors, with demand continuing to outweigh supply, albeit demand has eased back somewhat since the influx of occupiers on the back of Brexit. It's encouraging to see that retail is showing some signs of improvement with increased occupier demand in high footfall locations, but with rents remaining relatively low. The prime office market with larger floor areas remains under pressure, while small spaces and serviced offerings remain attractive due to their flexibility and cost effectiveness. 'While it's promising to see that surveyors are more optimistic on the overall outlook of the commercial property sectors, there are still many obstacles in the way.' And looking at the picture across the UK, RICS Chief Economist, Simon Rubinsohn, said: 'Despite the turbulence engulfing the geo-political environment following President Trump's tariff announcement at the start of April, feedback to the latest RICS was steady with the headline investment enquiries metric returning to positive territory, albeit modestly, for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. 'Longer term indicators, while generally constructive, continue to reflect the likely headwinds facing the real estate market over the next twelve months. Aside from the challenges linked to the global economy, concerns around domestic issues including the impact of the uplift in NI contributions are seen as likely weighing on occupier demand. 'Meanwhile the bifurcation in the office sector remains very visible in the latest results with the outlook for prime space seemingly improving as sentiment around secondary offices remains deeply negative.'
Belfast Telegraph
24-04-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
Occupier demand for commercial property in Northern Ireland on the up: report
According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) quarterly report, members reported a rise in occupier demand during quarter one – the first positive finding since quarter two in 2023. Surveyors were positive about both office space and industrial space – though there was more evidence of rising occupier demand for the latter. And as a result, the biggest number of surveyors since 2018 said they expected rents to go up. However, expectations of rising rents were stronger for industrial space than office space. But demand was less positive in the investor market, with industrial space the only type of property to see an increase in investor demand. Respondents were also cautious when it came to capital value expectations. But surveyors were more optimistic about capital values going up when taking a 12-month view. Garrett O'Hare, RICS NI commercial property spokesperson and managing director of Bradley NI, said: 'The commercial property market in Northern Ireland continued to face challenges with a variety of highs and lows depending on the asset class and location. "The industrial sector continues to outperform the other subsectors, with demand continuing to outweigh supply, albeit demand has eased back somewhat since the influx of occupiers on the back of Brexit. "It's encouraging to see that retail is showing some signs of improvement with increased occupier demand in high footfall locations, but with rents remaining relatively low. "The prime office market with larger floor areas remains under pressure, while small spaces and serviced offerings remain attractive due to their flexibility and cost effectiveness. 'Whilst it's promising to see that surveyors are more optimistic on the overall outlook of the commercial property sectors, there are still many obstacles in the way.' Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said performance UK-wide had been steady. 'Despite the turbulence engulfing the geo-political environment following President Trump's tariff announcement at the start of April, feedback to the latest RICS was steady with the headline investment enquiries metric returning to positive territory, albeit modestly, for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. 'Longer term indicators, while generally constructive, continue to reflect the likely headwinds facing the real estate market over the next 12 months. Aside from the challenges linked to the global economy, concerns around domestic issues including the impact of the uplift in NI contributions are seen as likely weighing on occupier demand. 'Meanwhile the bifurcation in the office sector remains very visible in the latest results with the outlook for prime space seemingly improving as sentiment around secondary offices remains deeply negative.'
