Latest news with #Sino-American
Epoch Times
23-05-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
Beijing Courts Europe as Trade War With US Grinds On: Australia Institute
The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) foreign policymakers see Donald Trump's tariffs as dangerous, but not insurmountable, according to the Australia Institute. But while attention has been focused on Beijing's response to Washington, there have also been efforts by the CCP to strengthen ties with Europe and Russia. That's one of the conclusions of the Australia Institute's latest six-monthly commentary on Beijing's foreign policy authored by Frank Yuan, a postdoctoral fellow in history. 'Beijing espouses much hope about its relationship with Europe. Chinese leaders have declared that there are neither fundamental conflicts in interest nor geopolitical tensions between itself and the EU, that their relationship is that between partners, and that both were defenders of the global multilateral trade system,' Yuan notes, citing the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). 'Beijing also identified Europe as an important pole in the multipolar world and, implicitly distancing itself from Moscow, declared that China had always supported the progress of the EU.' Currently, CCP officials are optimistic about Sino-American relations after Trump offered some reductions to tariff levels though they've not been averse to using combative rhetoric, asserting, for instance, that the trade war was a malicious attack on China's right to development, Yuan says. Related Stories 5/16/2025 5/12/2025 America's continued supply of arms to Taiwan and its expanding ties with Taipei are viewed as further provocation—not just interference in what Beijing sees as Chinese domestic affairs, but also an attempt to 'contain China through Taiwan,' as the MFA said last year. That makes attempts at building stronger alliances with European nations an obvious option for the CCP foreign policy establishment. CCP Does Not Think US-Europe Ties Will Weaken While U.S. Vice President JD Vance was less than complimentary about Europe at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February—when he criticised the European Union leaders for what he described as backsliding on freedom of speech and democracy—Chinese analysts did not see this as a major reset in U.S.-EU relations, as many Western commentators did, Yuan says. 'There was no suggestion from Chinese sources that European governments would seek to break from their alliance with Washington, particularly given their lack of independent defence capability,' he says. Beijing's more conciliatory approach to Europe is part of a strategy to 'quarantine' those relations from any disputes it may have with America. 'In a telling example, the MFA made a low-key response to a report that German intelligence agencies had information that COVID-19 emerged from a laboratory in Wuhan, and did not criticise the German media or government over what had been a highly sensitive issue for Beijing,' Yuan notes. Similarly, 'reports of the EU's investigation into Chinese trade practices in medical equipment, likewise, only elicited a vague statement that did not explicitly criticise Brussels.' Beijing has also refrained from endorsing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying, in an interview at the Munich conference, that 'all disputes and disagreements should be settled through dialogue in a political way because force and sanction cannot truly and completely solve the issue… the same goes for the Ukraine issue.' He also reiterated China's basic views on settling the war, which include respect for 'the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.' 'While Beijing clearly disagrees with the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies on Russia, it is not shy to signal its discomfort with Russia's use of force, even if it sympathises with Moscow's security concerns,' Yuan says. Beijing Unlikely to Leverage Russia Relationship Likewise, what Yuan calls the 'intrinsic and growing power imbalance between China and Russia' was reflected in both countries' conflicting reports of a meeting between Wang and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in April. While Beijing's summation said Russia 'fully supports China's position on the Taiwan question,' the official release from Moscow did not mention the issue. Similarly, an article under the name of CCP leader Xi Jinping in a Russian newspaper expressed appreciation for Russia's support of the 'one China principle' but made no reference to the Ukraine war or any support for it. With Beijing assuming the dominant position in its relationship with Russia, it has 'made a multipolar order an organising principle of its foreign policy,' Yuan says, 'and has identified Moscow as a partner in that pursuit.' But it's unlikely that China will seek to strongly assert what it sees as its superior position. 'Public commentary discounts the possibility of Moscow turning against Beijing through a rapid rapprochement with Washington,' Yuan says. 'It identifies significant divergence in interests between the U.S. and Russia, as well as the lack of existing Sino-Russian disputes. 'Nonetheless, one analyst noted the need to maintain a stable and positive relationship with Moscow to hedge against the risk of a Russo-American détente.'
Nikkei Asia
19-05-2025
- Business
- Nikkei Asia
Soros, other US investors lock in profits on China's DeepSeek tech boom
TOKYO -- Prominent U.S. investors like Soros Fund Management and Appaloosa sold off large amounts of Chinese technology stocks in the January-March quarter, Nikkei has found, in what could be seen as an effort to lock in profits before Sino-American trade tensions flared after the return of President Donald Trump. The analysis covered filings as of the end of March for Form 13F, which institutional investors with stockholdings at least $100 million must submit quarterly to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The Star
18-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
Europe warned to change fast or become a ‘shock absorber' of US-China trade war
Senior European Union officials are breathing a sigh of relief over a US-China tariff deal that may delay a diversion of Chinese exports to Europe. But they have been warned that the bloc must reform quickly or become a 'shock absorber' of tectonic upheavals in global trade imbalances. The climbdown in superpower tensions following high-wire talks in Geneva last weekend has led to a mutual reduction in tariffs and a respite in the turmoil that has roiled markets since US President Donald Trump's return to the White House in January. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. It does not, however, meaningfully change a bleak outlook for Europe if it fails to quickly adapt to Washington's efforts to reorder trade with China and the rest of the world, economists said. 'There is talk in Brussels of Europe becoming a 'third pole' in a bipolar world dominated by the US and China,' said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University. 'But without deeper political integration and better coordination of fiscal and industrial policies, this ambition risks remaining a slogan rather than a strategy.' 'Europe might not become a pole at all, but rather a shock absorber – forced to adjust to the choices of others without shaping the outcomes,' added Pettis, an influential thinker on the changing nature of global trade. 'I say this because of some pretty simple arithmetic,' he continued. 'The US currently represents nearly half of global deficits, and with the UK and Canada they together comprise roughly two-thirds of all deficits.' While last week's deal may not lead to a reduction in America's gaping trade deficit with China, the Beijing-based professor believed it would eventually come down and that Washington would put pressure on others to do the same. Pettis, also affiliated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a US think tank, said 'one of two things must happen'. 'Either global surpluses must come down – and with China accounting for nearly half of global surpluses, this means that China's surplus must come down – or some other part of the world must run the large deficits needed to balance global surpluses, and for all practical purposes this mostly means Europe,' he explained. European governments viewed last week's Sino-American deal as possibly buying them time on what is anticipated to be a wave of diverted Chinese exports to EU ports. 'We are seeing elements of de-escalation on the American side,' said Michal Baranowski, Poland's deputy minister for development and technology. 'The US has begun conversations with China. They reached a sort of an agreement with [the] UK, and that's a good sign,' he added. 'Negotiations with the EU are speeding up.' The minister described the US-China agreement as 'a good first step', saying it was 'good for us as well because Europe is very focused on trade diversion. With US-China tensions de-escalating, we're less likely to see it in Europe'. But observers have warned that this development must not distract the EU from the significant internal reform required to survive in a harsh new world order. The bloc is divided, too, on areas of industrial policies that may afford it better financial means to compete with the US and China, with new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz appearing last week to rule out EU-wide joint borrowing. 'We cannot go into never-ending spirals of debt,' Merz said in Brussels last week. Luis Garicano of the London School of Economics and a former member of the European Parliament urged the EU to shift its focus to reducing barriers within its own 27-member bloc rather than chase free-trade agreements. 'The IMF puts the hidden cost of trading goods inside the EU at the equivalent of a 45 per cent tariff. For services, the figure climbs to 110 per cent, higher than Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs on Chinese imports – measures many saw as a near-embargo,' Garicano wrote in a blog post. 'The [European] Commission may be expanding into new domains, but it's leaving its core mission – the single market – increasingly undefended.' Although EU leaders have acknowledged the need for internal reform, a quick fix is unlikely. Instead, the bloc is expected to adopt a multipronged approach of trying to cut trade deals with partners including India and the Mercosur group of South America as it also negotiates directly with the economic superpowers themselves. Talks with the US continue, with trade chief Maros Sefcovic speaking with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick by phone on Wednesday. A deal has thus far been elusive. 'I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,' US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week. 'My personal belief is Europe may have a collective action problem; that the Italians want something that's different than the French.' Brussels officials, meanwhile, are awaiting the first assessments of a task force set up to monitor the impact of Trump's tariffs on trade flows. They are ready to deploy safeguard measures that can quickly close the market to sudden surges of products that may harm local industry. Customs statistics suggest that circumstances may have changed even in the short window in which the US and China maintained mutual tariffs north of 120 per cent. Chinese trade data for April showed hefty declines in Chinese shipments to the US and big jumps in shipments to Europe. A 21 per cent drop in China's shipments to the US was mirrored by a 20.44 per cent leap in China's shipments to Germany. At the same time, EU shipments to China are cratering. In April, China's EU imports fell 16.46 per cent, according to the Post's calculations of its official trade data. Bloomberg on Thursday reported that China's trade surplus with the EU reached a record US$90 billion in the first four months of 2025. Amid these shifts, Brussels seeks to convince Beijing to take action that would address the potential trade diversion and China's manufacturing overcapacity. Otherwise, officials say, the EU market will start closing down. But these threats appear to be falling on deaf ears. 'The overcapacity problem is huge, it's growing, it's massive and it goes across the sectors,' Marjut Hannonen, head of trade for the EU delegation in China, told a panel discussion in Beijing on Wednesday. 'Overcapacity is an issue which we don't see China addressing at all,' Hannonen added. 'On the other hand, they are just doubling down on more manufacturing capacity, which is going to make this situation much worse, and this is a global problem.' In a sign that Beijing was playing hardball with Europe, talks between French and Chinese ministers this week failed to yield a deal that would see tariffs lifted on France's cognac imports, French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said following meetings with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng. Yanmei Xie, an independent analyst of China's political economy based in Barcelona, said the EU's efforts to get Beijing to change were likely doomed to failure. 'Europe keeps asking China to do something about it, but this is nothing short of asking China to change its economic system,' said Xie. 'Overcapacity is a feature not a bug in the Chinese model of techno-industrial upgrade through relentless manufacturing scaling.' 'To mitigate the effect of US tariffs, China needs Europe to absorb more Chinese goods while Europe wants China to export less and import more,' she added. 'Their objectives are diametrically opposed.' More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
The Advertiser
18-05-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Interest rate cut tipped despite Trump tariff backdown
A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains. A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains. A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains. A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains.
West Australian
18-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Interest rate cut tipped despite Trump tariff backdown
A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains.
