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Express Tribune
6 days ago
- General
- Express Tribune
Military notes; Indo-Pak conflict: deterrence, pre-battle manoeuvres
The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@ and tweets @20_Inam Listen to article We continue to discuss various aspects of the recent Indo-Pakistan military standoff. Third, deterrence per se. More than a billion lives escaped Modi's madness in a closer than ever nuclear Armageddon. Besides the conventional side of warfare, the more dangerous 'nuclear parity' still overhangs South Asia perilously. With deterrence in 'conventional terms re-established', one hopes India under Modi would avoid another wasteful adventure of humiliation, and resume talks over the table, rather than in the skies and through brinkmanship. The future India-Pakistan conflict scene will no longer be unilateral. It will be dictated and decided by Sino-Pak military alliance especially in collaboration with China's Western Theater Command. And this would augment deterrence for rational players on the Indian side, if any. Pakistan's Military, in South Asia's modern history, showcased the most integrated defensive strategy and real-time coordination. And just to reiterate, in military literature, a weaker side is supposed to have won an asymmetrical contest, if it denies outright victory or the attainment of war's aims and objectives to the stronger side, which Pakistan did to a larger India. So perceptually speaking, deterrence in the Indo-Pakistan context would, henceforth, be defined by the conventional military capabilities plus nuclear arms, and the fragility of psychological threshold on both sides, as discussed in my piece, 'India, Pakistan — redefining deterrence', printed in this space on May 22, 2025. And in Pakistan's context, deterrence would remain to be fortified by the Sino-Pakistani alliance, and the resolve of Pakistan's civil and military leadership, through Islamabad's 'quid-pro-quo Plus' strategy, to never let India prevail. So, peace, the perusal of which now squarely lies with a mellowed but bellicose India that still pursues its intended water wars, would remain elusive if we do not recognise each other's capabilities, and do not engage each other with dignity, mutual respect and patience, and not with ignorance or arrogance. Fourth. The Exterior Manoeuvre. Without going into the nuts and bolts of the diplomatic war, the Indian efforts to paint Pakistan into endemically bad light and as a state sponsor of terrorism, had very few takers, regionally and internationally. Indian diplomatic overtures focused on painting itself taller by telling the world its military response was calculated and non-escalatory and that this 'new India' would respond muscularly to the so-called terrorist attacks, without wanting a wider war with Pakistan and its people. Essentially contradictory iterations. No country condemned Pakistan for the 'alleged' terrorism; none appreciated India's 'carefully calibrated' military response. The world, contrarily, was preoccupied with the IAF's French Rafael jets being shot down by PAF's Chinese J-10C fighters using PL-15 E air-to-air missiles. Even the US after some initial ambivalence from VP Vance had to forcefully intervene to affect a ceasefire, without giving India the blank cheque of unilateralism and brinkmanship. Russia, India's traditional friend, withheld the 'expected' diplomatic support for India. And Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and the entire OIC, the UN all called for restraint and then ceasefire. Major capitals responded with studied neutrality despite India sending seven diplomatic delegations to 32 countries. Beijing's signalling and posturing in support of Pakistan were overtly clear. Washington's ceasefire appeal re-hyphenated the two nuclear neighbours, to India's great chagrin. New Delhi even refused to acknowledge any US role, for which Trump had publicly taken credit. The paradox of Indian 'Exterior Manoeuvre' was laid bare, as to why was it accepting a ceasefire, irrespective of whether it was reached bilaterally (as India claimed) or under US interlocution (as Trump tweeted), if it had an upper hand militarily. During the conduct of operations, fiasco after fiasco derided New Delhi's aspirations and outsized ego. From denial to acknowledging downing of planes including Rafaeles, to persistent lies on the state and social media, greatly diminished India's shine, sheen and diplomatic weight. New Delhi's comical effort to influence the World Bank under its Indian-origin president, Mr Ajay Banga, from sanctioning loan to Islamabad failed spectacularly. The extent of India's hostility towards Pakistan permeated not only its body politics, but also its cultural elite (read Bollywood), its state behaviour; and resulted in a compulsive obsession with Pakistan, whom India's intellectual wizards proudly claim to have pushed into irrelevant ignominy. This paradox - Pakistan's irrelevance and Islamabad being an uncomfortable reality - remains unresolved and has been damaging India's 'perceived' important power aspiration and status, without pundits realising it. Fifth, The Inner Front. India whipped up its jingoist anti-Pakistan narrative in order to jell its inner front, silencing opposition, muzzling rationality and suppressing truth in the process. And it failed. The Modi Government had to launch Operation "Tiranga Yatra (tricolour journey)" for intense domestic messaging, to manipulate outcomes during Operation Sindoor. From annihilating Pakistan to dominating South Asia as the new hegemon, its efforts, however, could not convince most of its 200 million Muslims, who constitute 10.9 per cent of its population, is the world's 3rd largest Muslim population, and the largest Muslim-minority globally. Its illegally occupied Kashmir, the expected battle zone, simmers with hate, discontent and a resurgent anti-India sentiment, making operations and rear-area security a nightmare for the Indian Military. Assam, Christian Mizoram, Nagaland, the Naxalite insurgency in the 'Red Corridor', Khalistan Movement in Punjab and abroad, and other insurgencies drive wedges in the India Union. Even the Brahman-dominated decision-making elite had and have reservations on the direction secular India has taken under Hindutva-laced Modi Sarkar. Indian security sector and armed forces saw removals, arrests and demotions during the stand-off; and its population is still experiencing arrests for supporting Pakistan, as per press reports. By comparison, Pakistan's inner front jelled like it always does in a crisis with India. RAW-financed terrorism in KP and Balochistan, and the expected political uprising by some political forces against the armed forces, in hilarious formulation of Indian intelligence, failed and failed miserably. Pakistan's national will, determination, resolve and motivation across the political spectrum and across the nation was tougher and firm. Pakistan's 'relative' demographic homogeneity compared to India's heterogeneity is always an asset and a force-multiplier. Such demographic truism also permeates Pakistan's armed forces, making it a formidable fighting machine. Continues...
Economic Times
25-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
China-Pakistan axis: The dragon-scorpion squeeze
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel In the years that have elapsed since South Asia emerged from the long twilight of British colonialism, the region has been gripped by a persistent instability – neither the disordered anarchy of stateless zones nor the cold equilibrium of an established balance of power, but something more ambiguous: a fluctuating, brittle order, always one crisis away from unraveling. Nowhere is this more evident than in the enduring antagonism between India and Pakistan that has matured into a more protean and perilous confrontation. Yet to view this rivalry in its traditional binary form is to miss the evolution of its real strategic character. As developments since the Pahalgam terror attack have demonstrated, the Indo-Pakistan conflict has not merely persisted; it has been transformed, gradually but inexorably, into a trilateral configuration in which China, once a peripheral observer, now looms as a latent but decisive metamorphosis warrants a more nuanced interrogation. Historically, Pakistan's reliance on foreign backers has been a fixture of its strategic posture. During the Cold War, the United States saw Pakistan as a geopolitical lever against Soviet influence, providing arms, funds, and legitimacy. But where America once sought alignment through ideology, China now pursues influence through infrastructure, arms sales, and algorithmic entanglement. The transition is less a case of old dependencies continuing in new dress than it is of an evolving strategic the latest episode of India-Pakistan conflict shows, the Sino-Pakistani nexus is not just diplomatic; it is operational. The integration of Chinese military platforms into Pakistan's arsenal is a cautionary tale of deeper entanglement. This increasingly seamless military and doctrinal convergence has birthed what one might term the 'dragon-scorpion axis': a symbiotic arrangement wherein the scorpion – Pakistan – delivers the sting through asymmetric terror, while the dragon – China – provides both the venom and the armour. The interoperability of systems, the shared training regimes, and the strategic alignment of objectives are the sinews of this new axis, one that is fast reshaping South Asia's security is a development reminiscent, in structural terms, of Soviet influence over the Warsaw Pact states – though with subtler means and in an age where digital infrastructure and surveillance capabilities amplify the reach of hegemonic ambition. Where the Soviet Union once asserted its dominance through the visible apparatus of military occupation and ideological enforcement, Beijing now extends its reach through dual-use infrastructure projects, arms sales, and economic inducements that come with strings jets, development loans, and digital platforms serve as the modern equivalents of commissars and armored divisions – tools for shaping behaviour, limiting autonomy, and binding Pakistan into a sphere of influence without the formal trappings of empire. The latest agreement to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan underscores this strategy, embedding infrastructure and investment as instruments of geopolitical alignment. By drawing Afghanistan into its orbit, Beijing seeks to create a buffer zone and secure a secondary axis of influence that fortifies Pakistan's strategic posture. This quiet coordination with Pakistan – 'clandestine compact' – functions as a deliberate mechanism of pressure – one aimed at constraining India's strategic bandwidth, shifting the balance of power through the cumulative effect of economic leverage, military entanglement, and narrative reconfiguration renders India's strategic predicament more acute and multidimensional. It is no longer merely a matter of deterring a hostile but inferior neighbour. Rather, India confronts a composite adversary – Pakistan as the immediate provocateur, and China as the hidden architect of escalation. The much-invoked 'two-front' threat seems to have matured into what might more aptly be termed a 'Proxy Pincer': a calibrated architecture of coercion in which Pakistan functions as the overt executor of disruption, while China maneuvers with calculated ambiguity from the flanks – eschewing attribution, yet resolute in shaping outcomes. The geometry of pressure is deliberate, the silence between actions as strategic as the actions herein lies the most insidious development: in a future crisis, the locus of decision-making in Islamabad may be so enmeshed with Chinese strategic imperatives that distinctions between national will and foreign influence become indistinguishable. Pakistan, in effect, has become Beijing's Trigger Finger – an appendage through which China can apply pressure without bearing responsibility, exert force without crossing thresholds, and deny involvement while shaping we confront now is an asymmetrical entanglement, in which China's ability to influence the tempo and tenor of a South Asian crisis enables it to shape outcomes without entering the battlefield. This is not mere ideological alignment; it is the operationalization of a plausible provocation pact – a tacit understanding that escalations can be engineered below the threshold of formal war, while plausible deniability is choreography is most evident in the post-Pahalgam milieu. The ghastly terror attack unfolded not merely as an act of violence, but as a moment of strategic theatre. India's restrained but firm military response was followed by a flurry of international statements – none more telling than those emanating from Washington and Beijing. The United States, ever eager to claim the mantle of crisis manager, framed the ceasefire as a diplomatic victory. Yet this performative diplomacy belied a deeper shift: China's silent choreography behind the scenes. The sudden halt in cross-border drone intrusions, a spate of ambiguous official statements, and the conspicuous tempering of Pakistani belligerence bore the unmistakable imprint of Beijing's strategic choreography. At its core was a calculated reminder: that strategic equilibrium in South Asia no longer hinges solely on Western mediation, but now rests, increasingly, on the tacit acquiescence – and latent leverage – of maneuver – subtle in its blend of opportunism and statecraft – aims to recast the Indo-Pakistan rivalry as a local disturbance to be managed by a disinterested overseer. What emerges is an axis of ambiguity, where power is projected through proxies, where escalation is modulated through influence, and where accountability vanishes into the fog of makes this architecture particularly pernicious is that it seeks to erode India's agency while simultaneously casting China as a stabilizer. The rhetorical inversion is complete: India's self-defense becomes provocation; its deterrence, escalation. The tragic triangle that now defines South Asia – India under constant psychological pressure, Pakistan as a pliable executor, and China as a puppeteer cloaked in neutrality – must be acknowledged for what it is: a strategic is an agonizing clash of values – India's insistence on sovereign equality and transparency pitted against China's preference for hierarchical ambiguity and covert coercion. It is not a contest of force alone, but of narrative and perception, of who gets to define legitimacy in a crowded geopolitical yet, within this fog lies opportunity. India must not merely react to these constraints. It must shape the terrain of engagement. The first imperative is doctrinal: deterrence must be reframed not in terms of punishment alone, but of unpredictability, denial, and disruption. India must build the capacity not only to retaliate, but to pre-empt, confuse, and second imperative lies in diplomacy. India must craft a narrative that extracts it from artificial entanglement that binds its image to Pakistan's provocations. This requires deepening ties with like-minded partners, particularly within the Indo-Pacific, but with a realistic understanding that the West's appetite for justice is often eclipsed by its addiction to does not reward victimhood; it rewards agency. The task before India is not simply to withstand the Dragon-Scorpion axis, but to render it obsolete – through the steady construction of resilience, through alliances that privilege transparency over ambiguity, and through strategic patience informed by long Kaura is Assistant Professor, Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan
Time of India
25-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
China-Pakistan axis: The dragon-scorpion squeeze
In the years that have elapsed since South Asia emerged from the long twilight of British colonialism, the region has been gripped by a persistent instability – neither the disordered anarchy of stateless zones nor the cold equilibrium of an established balance of power, but something more ambiguous: a fluctuating, brittle order, always one crisis away from unraveling. Nowhere is this more evident than in the enduring antagonism between India and Pakistan that has matured into a more protean and perilous confrontation. Yet to view this rivalry in its traditional binary form is to miss the evolution of its real strategic character. As developments since the Pahalgam terror attack have demonstrated, the Indo-Pakistan conflict has not merely persisted; it has been transformed, gradually but inexorably, into a trilateral configuration in which China, once a peripheral observer, now looms as a latent but decisive actor. This metamorphosis warrants a more nuanced interrogation. Historically, Pakistan's reliance on foreign backers has been a fixture of its strategic posture. During the Cold War, the United States saw Pakistan as a geopolitical lever against Soviet influence, providing arms, funds, and legitimacy. But where America once sought alignment through ideology, China now pursues influence through infrastructure, arms sales, and algorithmic entanglement. The transition is less a case of old dependencies continuing in new dress than it is of an evolving strategic fusion. As the latest episode of India-Pakistan conflict shows, the Sino-Pakistani nexus is not just diplomatic; it is operational. The integration of Chinese military platforms into Pakistan's arsenal is a cautionary tale of deeper entanglement. This increasingly seamless military and doctrinal convergence has birthed what one might term the 'dragon-scorpion axis': a symbiotic arrangement wherein the scorpion – Pakistan – delivers the sting through asymmetric terror, while the dragon – China – provides both the venom and the armour. The interoperability of systems, the shared training regimes, and the strategic alignment of objectives are the sinews of this new axis, one that is fast reshaping South Asia's security calculus. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like If You Eat Ginger Everyday for 1 Month This is What Happens Tips and Tricks Undo It is a development reminiscent, in structural terms, of Soviet influence over the Warsaw Pact states – though with subtler means and in an age where digital infrastructure and surveillance capabilities amplify the reach of hegemonic ambition. Where the Soviet Union once asserted its dominance through the visible apparatus of military occupation and ideological enforcement, Beijing now extends its reach through dual-use infrastructure projects, arms sales, and economic inducements that come with strings attached. Fighter jets, development loans, and digital platforms serve as the modern equivalents of commissars and armored divisions – tools for shaping behaviour, limiting autonomy, and binding Pakistan into a sphere of influence without the formal trappings of empire. The latest agreement to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan underscores this strategy, embedding infrastructure and investment as instruments of geopolitical alignment. By drawing Afghanistan into its orbit, Beijing seeks to create a buffer zone and secure a secondary axis of influence that fortifies Pakistan's strategic posture. This quiet coordination with Pakistan – 'clandestine compact' – functions as a deliberate mechanism of pressure – one aimed at constraining India's strategic bandwidth, shifting the balance of power through the cumulative effect of economic leverage, military entanglement, and narrative control. Live Events This reconfiguration renders India's strategic predicament more acute and multidimensional. It is no longer merely a matter of deterring a hostile but inferior neighbour. Rather, India confronts a composite adversary – Pakistan as the immediate provocateur, and China as the hidden architect of escalation. The much-invoked 'two-front' threat seems to have matured into what might more aptly be termed a 'Proxy Pincer': a calibrated architecture of coercion in which Pakistan functions as the overt executor of disruption, while China maneuvers with calculated ambiguity from the flanks – eschewing attribution, yet resolute in shaping outcomes. The geometry of pressure is deliberate, the silence between actions as strategic as the actions themselves. And herein lies the most insidious development: in a future crisis, the locus of decision-making in Islamabad may be so enmeshed with Chinese strategic imperatives that distinctions between national will and foreign influence become indistinguishable. Pakistan, in effect, has become Beijing's Trigger Finger – an appendage through which China can apply pressure without bearing responsibility, exert force without crossing thresholds, and deny involvement while shaping outcomes. What we confront now is an asymmetrical entanglement, in which China's ability to influence the tempo and tenor of a South Asian crisis enables it to shape outcomes without entering the battlefield. This is not mere ideological alignment; it is the operationalization of a plausible provocation pact – a tacit understanding that escalations can be engineered below the threshold of formal war, while plausible deniability is preserved. Such choreography is most evident in the post-Pahalgam milieu. The ghastly terror attack unfolded not merely as an act of violence, but as a moment of strategic theatre. India's restrained but firm military response was followed by a flurry of international statements – none more telling than those emanating from Washington and Beijing. The United States, ever eager to claim the mantle of crisis manager, framed the ceasefire as a diplomatic victory. Yet this performative diplomacy belied a deeper shift: China's silent choreography behind the scenes. The sudden halt in cross-border drone intrusions, a spate of ambiguous official statements, and the conspicuous tempering of Pakistani belligerence bore the unmistakable imprint of Beijing's strategic choreography. At its core was a calculated reminder: that strategic equilibrium in South Asia no longer hinges solely on Western mediation, but now rests, increasingly, on the tacit acquiescence – and latent leverage – of Beijing. This maneuver – subtle in its blend of opportunism and statecraft – aims to recast the Indo-Pakistan rivalry as a local disturbance to be managed by a disinterested overseer. What emerges is an axis of ambiguity, where power is projected through proxies, where escalation is modulated through influence, and where accountability vanishes into the fog of denial. What makes this architecture particularly pernicious is that it seeks to erode India's agency while simultaneously casting China as a stabilizer. The rhetorical inversion is complete: India's self-defense becomes provocation; its deterrence, escalation. The tragic triangle that now defines South Asia – India under constant psychological pressure, Pakistan as a pliable executor, and China as a puppeteer cloaked in neutrality – must be acknowledged for what it is: a strategic trap. This is an agonizing clash of values – India's insistence on sovereign equality and transparency pitted against China's preference for hierarchical ambiguity and covert coercion. It is not a contest of force alone, but of narrative and perception, of who gets to define legitimacy in a crowded geopolitical theatre. And yet, within this fog lies opportunity. India must not merely react to these constraints. It must shape the terrain of engagement. The first imperative is doctrinal: deterrence must be reframed not in terms of punishment alone, but of unpredictability, denial, and disruption. India must build the capacity not only to retaliate, but to pre-empt, confuse, and outmaneuver. The second imperative lies in diplomacy. India must craft a narrative that extracts it from artificial entanglement that binds its image to Pakistan's provocations. This requires deepening ties with like-minded partners, particularly within the Indo-Pacific, but with a realistic understanding that the West's appetite for justice is often eclipsed by its addiction to stability. History does not reward victimhood; it rewards agency. The task before India is not simply to withstand the Dragon-Scorpion axis, but to render it obsolete – through the steady construction of resilience, through alliances that privilege transparency over ambiguity, and through strategic patience informed by long memory. Vinay Kaura is Assistant Professor, Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan
Express Tribune
23-04-2025
- Science
- Express Tribune
Pakistani astronaut to embark on space mission with China
Pakistan is the first country to send astronauts to the Chinese Space Station. PHOTO: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS Listen to article A Pakistani astronaut will soon be among the international crew members heading to China's space station, according to the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA), marking a significant milestone in Sino-Pakistani space cooperation. The selection process for Pakistani astronauts is currently underway, following the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement in February. CMSA spokesman Lin Xiqiang said that the process involves three stages—preliminary selection in Pakistan, and secondary and final stages in China. Ultimately, two astronauts will be trained, with one selected to participate in a future spaceflight as a payload specialist. The Pakistani astronaut will be responsible for both operational duties and scientific experiments during the mission, representing Pakistan aboard the Chinese space station Tiangong. This announcement coincides with preparations for the Shenzhou-20 mission, scheduled for launch at 5:17 p.m. local time on Thursday. The mission will carry three Chinese astronauts—Chen Dong, Chen Zhongrui, and Wang Jie—for a six-month stay aboard Tiangong. Shenzhou-20 will conduct space experiments and extravehicular activities, as well as life science research involving zebrafish, planarians, and streptomyces. The outgoing Shenzhou-19 crew is scheduled to return to Earth on April 29, while the new crew is expected back in October. China is also training its fourth batch of astronauts, including for the first time candidates from Hong Kong, Macau, and Pakistan. Reports indicate Hong Kong and Macau astronauts may fly as early as 2026. CMSA officials say discussions are ongoing with other nations about participating in future space missions, reflecting China's growing push for international collaboration in space. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that Pakistan is keen to enhance cooperation with China in the fields of space technology, satellite communications, and internet services. The prime minister made the remarks during a meeting with delegation from Chinese space technology firm Galaxy Space, led by Chairman Xu Ming. The prime minister described China as a 'very trusted friend' and 'strategic partner,' adding that Pakistan places high importance on the growth of its space and telecommunication sectors.
