Latest news with #SkylerWeinand
Business Insider
12-08-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Why the latest inflation report is a best-case scenario for the stock market
The stock market is rallying on the latest inflation report. The S&P 500 hit an intraday record of 6,428.78 following the report, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 1% and the Dow spiked more than 400 points. The benchmark S&P 500 is up more than 9% year-to-date. Here's where US indexes stood around 11:20 am ET on Tuesday. The consumer price index rose 2.7% year-over-year in July, slightly below economists' expectations of 2.8%. For investors, this was just right — not too hot, not too cold. That's mainly because it was likely low enough to allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its September meeting, traditionally a bull catalyst for stocks. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows markets seeing 92% odds the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points next month, up from about 80% on Monday. Higher odds are also being priced in for a cut in October and December following Tuesday's CPI release. "Tuesday's CPI data was tame enough that it gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in September and opens the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut in September," said Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, on Tuesday. "This data, coupled with the weak July employment report from earlier this month, puts the nail in the coffin for lower interest rates." Investors had been waiting for more insight into how higher tariffs would affect inflation data, and the July number shows the impact has not been severe, at least for now. To be sure, with many deadlines for tariffs set for August, the impact on inflation could be more pronounced in the coming months. But for now, the market is cheering higher rate-cut odds for September and a lower likelihood of the economy's most dreaded scenario—stagflation—when inflation surges while economic activity stalls. On the flip side, inflation was high enough to signal that consumer demand is strong enough to continue to support price growth. The July payrolls report, which saw massive downward revisions to June and May data, had fueled fears that a potential recession was underway. Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics director Erika McEntarfer after the report was released. While July's inflation data was satisfactory for investors, the Fed isn't out of the woods yet on inflation, and further rate cuts after September are not guaranteed, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. "The concern for the Fed is that with inventory run-down, the tariff-induced boost to inflation is likely to grow over the coming months, meaning that inflationary pressures are likely to pick up just as the Fed starts to resume rate cuts," Shah said in an email Tuesday. "Markets like today's inflation print as it means the Fed can lower rates unheeded next month — rate cut decisions in October, December and beyond may well be more complicated." Trump blasts Powell again President Trump weighed in on the July inflation numbers in a Truth Social post on Tuesday morning, again urging Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slash rates. "Jerome 'Too Late' Powell must NOW lower the rate. Steve 'Manouychin' really gave me a 'beauty' when he pushed this loser. The damage he has done by always being Too Late is incalculable," Trump wrote. "Fortunately, the economy is sooo good that we've blown through Powell and the complacent Board. I am, though, considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed because of the horrible, and grossly incompetent, job he has done in managing the construction of the Fed Buildings," he continued. "Three Billion Dollars for a job that should have been a $50 Million Dollar fix up. Not good!"
CNBC
12-08-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Wall Street now sees 3 Fed rate cuts before year-end
The market really liked what it saw in Tuesday's inflation report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index report increased by 2.7% year over year in July . That's slightly less than a Dow Jones estimate for a 2.8% advance. The report jolted stocks . Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. benchmarks surged following the release, as the new data gave investors hope the Federal Reserve will cut rates not once, not twice, but three times before year-end. Take a look at fed rate cut expectations for the final three meetings of the year relative to where they were on Monday — based on interest rates futures data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool: September: 91.8% chance vs. 85.9% on Monday October: 66.3% chance vs. 55.1% December: 56.7% chance vs. 45% To be sure, the latest inflation report wasn't without blemishes. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, expanded more than anticipated, growing 3.1% year over year versus a consensus for a 3% gain. Take a look at what strategists and investors around Wall Street are saying: Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-CIO of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: "The Fed is getting the data support that the tariff effect on price level will mostly be transitory. Tariffs have yet to drive substantial price increases, as companies continue to offset cost pressures by drawing down inventories and adjusting prices cautiously due to perceived consumer price sensitivity … In essence, this inflation print supports the narrative of an insurance rate cut in September, which will be a key driving force for the markets." Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital: "Tuesday's CPI data was tame enough that it gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in September and opens the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut in September. This data, coupled with the weak July employment report from earlier this month, puts the nail in the coffin for lower interest rates." Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments: "CPI data that was in-line with expectations will not change the outlook for a September rate cut which was already largely priced into markets, but should provide a boost to risk assets with equities higher and interest rates lower as traders unwind hedges they had put in place to protect against the risk of an upside surprise in the data, which failed to materialize." Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth: "The CPI report is reminiscent of the philosophical question - 'If a tree falls in a forest…' The report is very much in line with expectations. Core goods are the real driver of the move up in the index, while being somewhat offset by energy and shelter cost. The report will likely not change the path forward for the Fed, as we expect to see rate cuts at the next three meetings. The market can now move on to shifting its focus to potential trade deals." Peter C. Earle, director of economics and economic freedom at the American Institute for Economic Research, on CNBC's " Squawk Box ": "I'm not really a big fan of these numbers. … We knew that tariff-related cost pressures were going to be a key upside going to this release. Not as bad as we thought, but I mean, still, this is going to complicate the work of the Fed a bit." Chris Zaccarelli, CIO at Northlight Asset Management: "In this environment stocks can continue to move higher and it is going to take a much larger inflation number – or other shock to the market – for a correction to commence. With many strategists expecting volatility in the months ahead, yet recommending that dips should be bought, it's hard to envision a very large pullback absent an actual recession." Daniel Siluk, head of global short duration and liquidity at Janus Henderson Investors: "The July CPI report came in broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation is under control, even if not quite at target. The headline print was contained by falling energy and gasoline prices, while services remained the primary driver of the overall increase." Peter Boockvar, CIO at One Point BFG Wealth Partners: "Both Treasurys and the S & P futures are breathing a sigh of relief that it wasn't higher than expected but 3.1% y/o/y core CPI is still well above 2%. I know some on the Fed and one new member joining temporarily seem to be very confident on how the economic data will play out over the next 4 months but I'm much less confident as the tariff impact will continue to flow through the data and I must say, many service companies too are feeling the higher cost of goods prices, it's not just manufacturers." — CNBC's Sarah Min and Alex Harring contributed reporting.
The Star
15-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks close mixed after June CPI report
NEW YORK, July 15 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks ended mixed on Tuesday as investors digested fresh inflation data and a wave of earnings reports from major financial institutions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 436.36 points, or 0.98 percent, to close at 44,023.29. The S&P 500 fell 24.8 points, or 0.4 percent, to 6,243.76. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite rose 37.47 points, or 0.18 percent, to 20,677.8, marking a new all-time closing high. Ten of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors closed in the red. Materials and health care were the biggest decliners, falling 2.11 percent and 1.88 percent, respectively. Technology was the only sector to finish higher, gaining 1.27 percent. June's inflation data, released Tuesday, showed consumer prices rising 0.3 percent for the month, in line with expectations and up from May's pace. The annual CPI rate stood at 2.7 percent. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.2 percent from the previous month and 2.9 percent year over year, both matching analysts' forecasts. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, said it was a relief to see Tuesday's CPI report come in line with expectations, but "it's highly likely that a tariff-driven inflation reckoning is coming." "The latest U.S. inflation report practically confirmed that President Trump's tariffs acted to push up consumer prices in June," said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebuy. On the earnings front, several major banks delivered underwhelming results. Wells Fargo beat profit expectations but issued lower guidance for net interest income, pushing its shares down more than 5 percent. JPMorgan Chase also posted strong results but saw its shares slip. BlackRock dropped 5.88 percent after missing revenue estimates. Citigroup stood out, gaining 3.68 percent after beating second-quarter earnings expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia surged 4.04 percent after announcing it would resume shipments of its H20 AI chips to China, following White House assurances that current export restrictions would be eased. The news sparked a rally in semiconductor stocks. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 6.41 percent, Arm Holdings and Broadcom each added less than 2 percent, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF climbed 1 percent. Among other mega-cap tech names, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon posted modest advances. Tesla declined 1.93 percent, and Meta Platforms lost 1.46 percent.
CNBC
15-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Verizon, MSGS stocks may be tariff-proof, says Regan Capital's Weinand
CNBC's "Power Lunch" team discusses what stocks may be immune to tariffs with Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US-China trade talks, Newark Airport, OpenAI: Market Domination
Markets edge closer to the weekend, with just one hour left in Friday's trading session. Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton cover developing stories, especially ahead of US-China trade negotiations taking place this weekend, in this episode of Market Domination. As the Trump administration prepares for its talks with Chinese officials, Regan Capital chief investment officer Skyler Weinand outlines a hypothetical "black swan" event that would be a cause for concern for the US. Mike Boyd, president of Boyd Group International and veteran aviation consultant, joins the program to speak about the state of Newark Liberty International Airport following another outage of its air traffic control. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Hello and welcome to market domination sponsored by Tasty trade. I'm Julie and Josh Lipton live from our New York City headquarters. It is Friday, May 9th, the last trading day of the week, and we are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. And here's your headline blitz getting up to speed one hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street. The White House has created, I think, an expectation that there may be some major breakthrough with China this weekend in the talks in Geneva, and I think you know this is that we may get a few positive headlines on we're making some progress, but any deal with China is going to take months, if not even a year, to get done. I feel we could wake up to some disappointment. Um, again, to me, Trump's all about ebbs and flows, right? When things are good, he likes to stir it up. When things are bad, he steps back and calms things down. Things seem so good right now. I feel we're in that stage where we might get a disappointment coming into a week Monday, Tuesday next week, and that's when you want to start buying again.I worked for Jeff Bezos for a long time and he really taught me the importance of looking super closely, figuring out exactly what your riders and drivers in our case want and just uh really overdoing it to give it to him and our service levels have never been better. Uh, we're doing all sorts of great things for, for drivers. I'll give you one statistic we now have a 23% point advantage over the other guy in terms of driver preference, and that's because we treat drivers well and um and they, they deliver great service. We got one hour to go until the market closes. Let's take a look at the major averages today. Not too much going into the weekend. Everybody's waiting, right, because Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's on the ground in Switzerland. We're going to hear more details on that in a moment, but the hope is that this might be the beginning of a framework of a plan to maybe decelerate and de-escalate the trade war with China. We'll see, but the market is not doing anything ahead of that. They don't want to take any risks. The Dow down about.69 points or so, about a 51%. The S&P 500, very little change, hugging that un line today, as is the Nasdaq. So you know, not seeing anybig moves. Yeah, we are muted. We're cautious here, as you noted, Julie. You're heading into this meeting. US Chinese officials getting together for trade talks. President Trump did suggest on true social, maybe an 80% tariff on China. We'll see how it works out up to Scott B, up to Scott B course, Treasury Secretary Besant and of course also though against a backdrop of what has been just a remarkable move in the market as well. I mean, S&P 500 as we sit here right now is up about nearly 15% in the past month. Yeah, yeah, we're talking about sort of the move from the lows that we have seen here. Um, that said, obviously still down on the year, and I also wanted to quickly look on the moves that we've seen on the week here because over the week we haven't done much of anything. So yes, we've had that big this week it kind of stalled out when all was said and done. So, uh, the Nasdaq off about 0.25% on the week, the S&P off about 31%, and the Dow very little changed. So that momentum has come and now there's the calm. We heard Peter Cheer talking about that in his interview this morning, just a moment ago, the sound playing from that that maybe you want cautious and see what happens next, especially coming from President Trump now that we've gotten to that sort of period of equilibrium perhaps. Should we take a look at a quick look at the sectors too. Let's look here. We've got healthcare down, energy and real estate up here. Might as well look at the weekly move in these groups as well. Industrial is the winner on the week. Healthcare, the the week, which is interesting to see those kinds of moves. And then looking at the Nasdaq 100 here in large cap tech, that's again the 5 day look we know what happened alphabet this week. We're going to talk about a little bit about a big tech playbook later but getting hit on some comments from Apple and about AI coming more to the fore in search. All right, should we talk more about what to expect in Switzerland, right, President Donald Trump has laid down a clear marker for de-escalation, posting earlier today that 80% tariff on China, that seems right. This comes as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett and US Trade Representative Jason Greer set to meet with China's top economic official in Switzerland over the weekend. Here with more on the latest trade talk, we got Yahoo Finance's Ben Worshka. Ben, what are we hearing? What can we expect? What should we be looking for? Yeah, yeah, Julie, as you mentioned, a lot of, lot of waiting, a lot of anticipation for this. Both Treasury Secretary Besson and USTR Representative Greer are already on the ground in Geneva. Today was the first much smaller step with that. They met with the Swiss to talk about the 31% potential 31% tariffs on that country. Um, the Swiss president came out of that and actually was talking about China, as as everyone else says. She had a good line that alluding to the, um, the recent, um, elevation of an American pope to say she Holy Spirit will come to Geneva this weekend and that and that's sort of indicative to me of the overall mood music here which is this question of de-escalation um on on the US tariffs 145% on China and China's tariffs of 125% on the US. Trump very much raised that prospect with his post earlier today that the 80% tariffs, but the latest from the White House this afternoon comes from White House press secretary who, who kind of batted that down a little bit to say that this was a number that Trump quote just threw out there as a suggestion and that it was that it was up to that and that the unilateral unilateral reduction from tariffs on the US side are not in the offing. So basically both sides have to agree to some sort of reduction before anything happens. So it's comments like that that are going to kind of keep the anticipation going with investors watching this meeting all set for this weekend. It's set to start on Saturday. And Ben, you know, to get an actual trade deal done between US and China, what kind of rough time frame could one be thinking about there? Weeks, months? I mean, we had some guests on Yahoo Finance today who said, you suggested even longer. Yeah, I think months is the is the short end of of an actual full framework. I think very few sides of this are even suggesting anything concrete coming this weekend beyond, beyond a sort of de-escalation on the terrorist front. There was sort of a Treasury Secretary and Scott talked about this as the start of talks, and I think the that at least on a lot of these details, a huge number of details of issues between the US and China, that that's going to take months if not even not even longer to work out. The question is whether this de-escalation can be kind of a way to jumpstart things as as this what many have turned a long slog ahead. All right, thank you, Ben. I appreciate wavering on Friday after President Trump hinted more trade deals are coming. For more on the latest market action, let's welcome in our Skyler Winan, Reagan Capital chief investment officer. Sky, it's good to see you. So for investors, you know, we've been talking a lot about this meeting this weekend in Switzerland between US Chinese official talking trade, Skyler. I'm just curious as a CIO, how you're thinking through that headline, through that event and what it could mean for the market. It still rings like a pretty big number. 80%, uh, and overall tariff levels are higher than anyone that's, you know, a current investor has ever seen. We're going back to the 1920s to get anywhere close to the overall tariff number we're looking at. I think we're at 25%, um, so you know, for the market to have pulled it has over the last month and investors basically being flat over all this turmoil just seems insane uh and so you be time to take some chips off the table on the equity side and, and kind of batten down the hatches and maybe be happy with a 5 or 6 or 7% return you might be able to get in fixed income over the rest of theyear. OK, Skyler, let's dig into this a little bit because the worst case scenario at one point were tariffs that were a lot higher, right, that those, you know, with all those reciprocal tariffs that the president, uh, initially, uh, put up there and we know we're not getting that scenario, but walk me through what you think is now going to happen that the market is not quite accounting for. Yeah, so let's just say I mean that was the worst, that was the known known, right? OK, here's where tariffs are and now we're talking about 80% versus 145% on Chinese goods, um, so what investors aren't thinking about and we're only talking about goods OK you know you have an or you have an Android. I don't know if you're an Android person, but you, you think of your iPhone, you think of, OK, well the price might go up on this from $1000 to $1400. OK? What you're not thinking about is all of the apps and services you use on a daily basis. Think about all the subscriptions you use. Think about Microsoft Office, for example. So this is super tangible. So the United States is a huge exporter of includes software that includes consulting business consulting that includes legal services, but let's just take Microsoft Microsoft Excel and Word. What if a tariff and we're talking about uh let's just say they're paying for Microsoft. what if China puts a tariff of 100 or 300% on Microsoft Office? What if the entire world does that? We're not even talking about that yet, so think about anybody, any firm that is selling their products internationally, especially software firms, any service company that hasn't entered anyone's mindset is this huge black swan of well what if what if services start getting tariffed to the tune of of what we're talking about goods getting tariffed that that's that's what I'm worried about. So Skyler, given those unknowns, given those uncertainties, and you, you sound more cautious here, um, how does that inform your investment strategy, your investment decision making? How do you want to be positioned? Yeah, on the equity side, I would definitely hunker down a little bit more focus on US based businesses. If you're going to be exclusively a US based investor, you have to think about and filter out some companies, a lot of companies that are that have a either a a tremendous amount of exports they're relying on more than 30% of their revenues from offshore or if they're relying on more than 30% of their inputs from offshore, OK, so what, uh, what are my alternatives? maybe looking at like discount retailers like a TJ Maxx or Ross stores where, uh, folks might be trading down from a Neiman Marcus or a Nordstrom to, um, you a TJ Maxx or Rosters also looking at I brought up uh I brought up cell phones. Think about a T-Mobile or a Verizon who is charging customers that subscription, and those are all US based customers primarily. Verizon is and you know that I would say is more of a of a tariff proof asset. Then when you look on the fixed income had this whipping around of the back end of the curve. Anything that has interest rate risk has been extremely volatile and extremely risky over the last 6 weeks. What hasn't been risky is the front end of the curve, and I'm talking about floating rate paper, very short duration paper, um, that continues to put up 4.25% to 5.5% yield depending on what asset class you're in, but stay you know if you're a US based investor and you wanna continue to focus on US based investments, stay local companies that aren't relying on imports and exports as much as let's say a Microsoft might be. Um, what role does the Fed play in all of this, right? Because if what you're saying ends up coming to pass, right, and you do have the trade war sort of ratcheting up versus ratcheting down, um, one would think that then the Fed will step in and say, OK, we're gonna cut if this is hitting the US do you see that playing out that way? The Fed said nothing this week, right? And, and I'm surprised the market didn't react more negatively to the Fed. Um, the Fed highlighted, hey, there are a ton of ambiguities and we are in wait and see mode. I think they said wait something like 22 times, uh, in the press conference and so they're in wait and see mode and they have said they're going to treat unemployment and inflation can argue that if tariffs aren't getting materially better, inflation will be worse, um, but also unemployment will get materially worse. So I think, and you're not gonna, the problem is you're not gonna see those numbers for months. Uh, you're talking about July, August, September, even before the Fed actually does anything and and we had a great unemployment report last week, you know, 4.2% unemployment, everything else was pretty steady, so the kind of taking the summer off. We're we're gonna have to wait till September for I think the Fed to do much unless for some reason unemployment kicks up to 5%. Um, so the Fed's not, we're not going to see a Fed put anytime soon. Skyler, good to see you. Have a great weekend. Thank just getting started here on market domination. Coming up, it was a big week for earnings, but who is facing the biggest effects from tariffs? We're gonna discuss on the other side. Stick around, more market domination still to traffic controllers handling flights in and out of Newark Liberty International Airport experiencing another outage on Friday morning. This is the 2nd instance that we know of that's been reported upon in the past several weeks, and traffic has been snarled not just in and out of Newark, but has created a ripple effect across the other two major airports in the New York area, as well as really across the country here and raised questions of the country's air traffic control system. For more, we're bringing in Mike Boyd, president of Boyd Group International, a veteran aviation consultant who watches the industry very closely. Um, Mike, when we were talking about who to talk to about this today, yours was the was the first name I thought of because everybody's wondering what the heck is going on at Newark and how it's gotten to this point. What's your take on it? It's not Newark, it's the FAA. It's the whole system. Newark is just the first little gas hole that's coming out of this volcano. It's a lot worse than that. It's not shortage of people. It's not bad equipment. Well, that's there. The fact we've had bad management over the last 30 years, wonderfully bipartisan, but unless we fix that bad management, I think we are, we're still gonna have this happen and keep in mind just by cutting back flights, that's fine. The safest airplane is one that doesn't leave the we have an air transportation system we need to support. It's not being done or has not been done, and we've known about it. This isn't some magic thing we just found. SoMike, on that point, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy did announce this, this plan, Mike, um, this week we air traffic control system. It sounds like the plan includes installing 4600 new high-speed connections, replacing 618 radars across the country. You know, you read that plan, Mike. Does that sound like the right plan? Is that the right strategy? It is a plan. We haven't had 1. 30 years ago, myself and Mike Captain Mike Biata testified to Congress on this, and nothing's been done. Every DOT secretary since then we're going to do something. Don't worry about it. This is the first time I've seen any hard numbers like we're gonna get it by. We're going to get this. So I'm confident now, or I feel a lot more confident than I did, that it's going in the right direction. The issue is we need accountability at the FAA. That's why we got into this mess. There's never been any. And Mike, you know, as you said, if, if what's going on at Newark is just the sort of gas holes that are escaping from the, the volcano, why do you think it's happening now? Is it just a matter of it was inevitable that we would see this kind of stuff happening, or have there been kind of other signs popping up? Well there's been signs for years. Look at all these new missions we've talked about, things like that. We've known the equipment has been incompetent. Look, I mean 30 years ago it was vacuum tubes. Today it's floppy disks. What are we talking about? So it's things we knew about, but if it happens at Newark, it can happen in San Francisco and LA and Dallas Fort Worth, and Chicago too. That's what we're trying to avoid. they're, they're trying to avoid, but just don't think this is uh our friends in New Jersey are the only ones that have this problem, the nation does. I, I take your point, Mike, but on Newark specifically, I just want to get your take on this because I did see these reports. US rep Josh Gottheimer, he's pinning the problems on Newark, Mike, on it sounds like a couple issues. I'd love to get your take on this. One, apparently he's talking about the lack of proper air traffic controller that there are currently 22 controllers working, said the numbers should actually be in the 60s, and two, he did talk about tech. He apparently said many of the lines connecting controllers to the radar are outdated copper wires. When you heard those arguments, Mike, I mean, does that sort of dovetail with your understanding of what's going on at Newark specifically? It dovetailed my understanding that no one's been held accountable. This guy has known about this for years. This isn't something new that he just found. He's just using it now because it's convenient, but he knew about this stuff 5 years ago. He could have known about it and did nothing. So he's part of the problem. It's great to bring it up after the iceberg hits the ship. We want to try to avoid the iceberg, and we need, you know, aA lot more attention from Congress and also from the aviation industry to say we're not gonna put up with this. The man running United Airlines has been doing that and he's been ignored. So I think what we have here is when the politicians come out and say we're using copper wires, well you should have known that years ago and done something before we had this problem. So let me ask you, Mike, a question and it's a personal question, but I think it's probably a question a lot of people thought when they saw that that headline dropped today about you fly out of Newark, Mike? Would you be comfortable with your friends and family flying out of Newark? In terms of safety, yes, but in terms of the possibility of sitting in a gate with nowhere to go and no hotels available, no, but in terms of safety, I'd have no problem with it, but I wouldn't book through Newark right now only because of these problems we know about. But I can make that same argument with almost any other connecting So, um, it's a wider thing than just our friends in New Jersey, but what I do I think it's unsafe? No, because United Airlines is cutting 35 flights a day, 10%. That's a whole lot less pressure, but we really, they really needed to add another 20% because they've cut back so far in the problem we've got here is we've had no accountability at the FAA for failure, and until we get that, I don't care how much money we spend, it's not going to get fixed. Well,in fact, it sounds like that there have been some cuts at the FAA, Mike, right, that that there's um tightening of belts, which was one perhaps one of the catalysts behind all cascading effect or is that, is that a misunderstanding of thesituation? They were cutting fat. The FAA is more than just air traffic control. You've got oversight. You've got people who were looking what a new runway in Grand Island, Nebraska, that sort of thing. There's a lot of that factor that got cut, but none of it involved air traffic control, but there was a lot I think in many cases, the fat started in the front office for years and they should start cutting that too. I'm confident we might see some changes with some hard numbers we've gotten already from the new Secretary of Transportation, but we'll see. So it's just a coincidence then that this seems to be bubbling up at the same time that they're cutting that fat in your words? Absolutely, that what they're cutting is not anything to do with air traffic control. People will tell you that we monitor it. They're not cutting controllers. They're not cutting anything involving getting airplanes into and out of the skies. What they're cutting are other things, oversight, things like that, that the FA is a whole lot more things than just air traffic control. So no, it's not something where it's, oh a coincidence. The two things are totally separate right now and what we have here is a system that didn't hire enough people over the years. We have a system that didn't upgrade equipment over the years. That's where the coreis. Mike, going back to Newark, I'm just curious, with those headlines, with, with all this, with all this drama, are there certain airlines, Mike, that are more exposed there than others? Well, sure, United Airlines is the one who makes Newark a hub. Newark is not a hub itself. United Airlines is making it a hub by putting airplanes to interconnect there, so it's hurting United Airlines very badly and United, you know, to their credit, uh, Scott Kirby is the one that's been talking about this for years and been ignored, but that's a keep in mind it's a major airport and every airline that flies there is getting affected, so that means that airplane coming into Tucson may be late because it left Newark this morning way late. So it's going to affect our whole system, not just there, but United is the one that's getting hammered. How quickly can all of this be fixed, Mike? I was pretty amazed at what Scott, uh uh uh Duffy said about having an actual plan. Um, he's talking 3 to 4 years now, in terms of the safety side, that's gonna get fixed right away because it's gonna cut back on in terms of having a plan, we're talking 3 to 4 years of maybe, maybe getting to having something we need, but at least I see a timeline which I've never seen in the 40 years. I've been messing around with this. Mike, by the way, Josh and I both live not too far from Newark Airport. It's our home airport. If you ever get, if you ever can't find a hotel room, you just give us a call. That's very kind of you. Thank you. I'll do that. Thank you. Take care, Mike. Have a great weekend. Bye bye. Bye. Well we're watching for all the tariff mentions this earnings season. Let's recap some of the latest from this week. We got Ford, Crocs, and Mattel all updating investors on their guidance this week. Let's start with Ford. Ford Motors suspending its annual guidance on Monday because of uncertainty around President Trump's tariffs. The automaker the levies would cost the company about $1.5 billion. Ford CEO Jim Farley saying on the call that quote, it's still too early to fully understand our competitors' responses to these tariffs. It is clear, however, that in this new environment, automakers with the largest US footprint will have a big into crocs, the company withdrawing its full year outlook with consumer behavior remaining uncertain amid the tariff policies. The company highlighting the anticipated sourcing mix in 2025, with Vietnam shouldering almost half the load. Now for context, Trump's so-called Liberation Day tariff on Vietnam, remember, was 46%. That was later suspended for 90 days to allow time for trade talks is at that universal base of 10%.And taking a look at toys, Mattel pausing its full year 2025 guidance citing, you guessed it, tariffs. The Mattel CEO saying on the earnings call that quote, given the volatile macroeconomic environment and evolving US tariff situation, it is hard to predict consumer spending. So the drumbeat goes on. Well, while most of big tech earnings we know are in the rearview mirror now, tariffs remain a dark cloud of uncertainty for the sector as the threat of renewed volatility lingers. We're taking a look at the state of tech with Baird, managing director. That would be Ted Mortenson. Ted, good to see you. Good to see you. So maybe start, picture when it comes to tech, I'm just curious how you would how you would judge Ted, how you would characterize sentiment toward the sector right now. How would you describe it? Yeah, it'sa great question. Sentiment is pretty negative actually. If you look at some of the portfolios that have been structured, they're very defensive, you look at what happened, uh, I would say the first week of February we had a lot of complacency and the market was at its all-time highs, then we really, uh, pivoted down to a down cycle. We're almost down 22%.Between that February and April time frame, uh, people got very defensive, and I had in my career I've never seen underweights the size as I've seen in tech going into, you know, I would say, um, April 7th was the lows, um, you've seen a snapback of roughly 15% and I think that's just people trying to get equal weight on certain sectors that they can see growth on that's sustainable. It's so interesting, Ted, because before that dip there was a lot of talk that tech was the new defensive in some ways or that it had defensive characteristics because of its size, because of the long term AI growth story, and it doesn't seem like those sort of underlying beliefs have necessarily gone away or have they. They haven't. I think one of the biggest reports of the whole earnings season was Microsoft, killed it. Uh, they killed it on Azure on 35% growth, and half of that growth was just people moving the cloud. They can't even maintain Gen AI, uh, supply demand curves. Same thing with Amazon. They can't, they can't meet the Gen AI demand. So these companies, if you look at Meta, Microsoft, um, specifically, they're free cash flowing better than than Argentina, quite putting, they're putting free cash flow out there in the $18 billion range, and that, that gives them a lot of latitude that they can spend like they're spending on Gen AI. I would argue they are somewhat defensive if you look at where the market's going. What one question heading into this earning season was the AI boom and whether those big tech companies were gonna keep spending on that boom. And then when you heard them talk about their capex plans though was Alphabet Microsoft reiterated meta raised and I guess the question is, do you think though this is peak cap X? I mean, if I'm I'm an Nvidia investor right now, I'm wondering about what what comes in 2026. So Wall Street got it wrong, to be honest with you, and I think, uh, there was a lot of misinformation from some of the read analysts that, you know, those reports were coming hot and fast. I know, yeah, and I think, I think it was just, uh, it's really kind of a sucker punch reanalysts were saying, oh, I'm seeing Microsoft and Amazon pull back on Capa. The real issue is time to power. You cannot get some of these data data centers are being built the, the, the represent power that you need for the cloud titans. So that's number one. Microsoft has been so adamant that uh CapEx will moderate because they've built all these long term assets, the shelves and the utilities, right?So if you look at 25 and 26, they have to populate all these mega data centers with next generation equipment. So that's where we're focused. We're really focused on the picks and shovels versus the construction side of the business. And who's who's picks and shovels, Ted? Oh, like in a, you know, if you look at everything from um the supply and core silicon, that's Navidia and Avago then you, you go up the stack on, on networking that's ERISA and even a name like Celestica that is doing the private label white white box networking, um, and then you go to some of the, the high voltage power players like, um, monolithic power or whatever that whole continuum of of build there's there's, there's companies that you should be focused on that are gonna have some pretty good growth over the next couple of years and thenTed we gotta ask you about the big one of stories of the week was the sort of Apple testimony that came out, right? that talked about, um, AI and the role it's playing in search and we saw Alphabet shares get really spooked here because I, I guess part of the leap was not only Apple leading more into AI but also the maybe people aren't using Google as much. Maybe they're just going straight to perplexity or or chat GBT or whatever to do their searching. How much do you think? Where are we on that sort of adoption curve? Well, Google has 100% of search, so yeah, obviously they can't maintain that amount. I think it's, it's interesting that Apple put out a press release when they are so far behind on Gen AI. I mean, they're a year behind on if you look at Google, the way I look at it is a little bit different. You look at Google, they pioneered GenI through deep De Mind, uh, and some other bets. That's number one. Number 2, they've been spending at billion dollar levels on cloud infrastructure. Apple has not, so I think it's shooting, it's throwing a rock in a glass house, uh, a, a little bit, and I think it's an overreaction personally. Uh, my clients are worried about Google's share but it's a brilliant company with unbelievably good technology. So, uh, there's, there's other pieces of Google you should look at. Ted, it was so great to see you, to have you on set today. It was terrific. It was a pleasure. Thank you for having me. Thank you. All the inventor of chat, GPT OpenAI originally started with the intention of making humanity and tech better and more symbiotic. It's now evolved into the heart of a debate over who should owe and profit from that venture. We're gonna take a look at inside the controversy and the headlines, all that and more coming up. OpenAI's new restructuring plan remains a point of contention for Elon Musk as his legal claims against the creator of Chat GPT move forward. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Kinon joins us now with the latest. So OpenAI, as we know, has a complex structure and the structure was set to change. Elon Musk challenged a lawsuit in a lawsuit, and then open an eye I said, well, we're gonna do a differentthing. Maybe not. We're going to backtrack a little bit. We're gonna stay a nonprofit open AI at the top of the pyramid being the parent company of a for-profit company in which Microsoft and others are invested, that is going to turn into that that subsidiary that's gonna turn into a public benefit corporation which is still essentially a for-profit business, but in a lawsuit in that lawsuit you mentioned that Musk has against OpenAI, Altman, other executives, and Microsoft, Musk said this about this about face. He said by all indications, OpenAI's latest announcement is a facade concealing OpenAI's prior looting of the charity and ongoing profiteering from it. He went on to criticize OpenAI's removal of for-profit caps that are in place with the nonprofit that uh is put on outside so that is going to go away according to this announcement. OpenAI has for its part responded and said that the continuing case they call it baseless by Elon Musk, the lawsuit saying it only provides and proves that it was always a bad faith attempt to slow down OpenAI's progress. Now it's unclear to me how this change, how this entity change is going to impact competition. You guys were just talking a lot about Google's this space you have Apple already using Chat GBT owned by OpenAI for its Apple intelligence features on its mobile devices. You had Eddie Q, head of services for Apple, testifying in Google's search remedies trial this week saying that Apple is also considering not only Chat GBT but also Perplexity, which is a corporation, by the way, Anthropic, which is a public benefit corporation, all of those in the mix search possibilities for Apple. Uh, so you know you have all these different types of entities in the mix and what that does when you extrapolate out and go into the future and test these companies against each other, I don't know. You also had an open letter that came right before this about face that was signed by technology experts including some what some people call the Godfather who some people call the godfather of AI Jeffrey Hinton, AI Pioneer, also Lawrence Lessig, Harvard Law that OpenAI should remain a nonprofit. So what exactly they think about this new idea? Has Microsoft weighed in yet, Alexis, on this new open AI structure? Do we? I don't think so. I haven't seen that. Um, the open letter from these experts said that OpenAI wasn't organized for this purpose, and their concern, of course, is that any for-profit structure is going to harm potentially take over, um, so there's a lot of debate here still to come, I think, and regulators so far haven't truly weighed in, but there was some pressure from attorneys general on OpenAI to keep their structure in place as well. We'veall seen the Matrix. I don't think the nonprofit structure would stop the robots. I really wanted to get, I, I think if it gets to that point, Alexis, thanks so much. I appreciate time for some of today's training ticket sponsored by Tasty Trade. We're checking in on shares of Transmetics, Rocket Lab, and Toast. Let's start with Transmetics, uh, medical equipment company topping earnings estimates, um, in its most latest quarter, and it also raised its revenue guidance for the full year. Uh, the company beating on the top and bottom line here, total revenue coming in at $143.5 million here, um, and the company is seeing um, in one of its liver products in particular, but overall, uh, doing well here. Yeah, it looks like, uh, most on the streets still like this one. the move on the stock so far this year is tremendous. It's up around 80%. Uh, Piper looked like to me raised the target to 125. They maintain the overweight. William Blair also likes it. They have an outperform, told their clients they view the results as strong, should help offset some of regarding the company's market position. They say in an increasingly competitive environment they view the company say as one of the better organic growth stories in our coverage universe. Interesting, as you say, um, up about 80% this year. Yeah. All right. Shares of Rocket Lab tub in today after posting a wider than expected loss for the first quarter company also issued revenue guidance for the second quarter. They missed on the lower side. Uh, so for Q1, looks like revenue IEDA lost 30 million. The estimate was 34 million. Uh, in terms of looking ahead, they forecast revenue for the second quarter 130 to 140 per Bloomberg. The estimate was 136.8. They've seen adjusted EBA loss of 28 to 30. The estimate was was a loss of 21.4 million. Also saying it intends to establish a holding company structure, a new parent company, Rocket Lab Corporation. Yeah, itlooks like that particular, um, hitting the stock here but on the call they also talked about developing their new, uh, their own rocket to try to place some of their satellites in space. So that's sort of an ongoing effort on the part of Rocket Lab, but this has been one that um sort of retail investors have looked to to help them play this industry because there aren't a lot of publicly traded ways to play space, so to speak, um, you know, we were just talking about our first is up 80% this year. This one is down about 19% year to date, so they haven't seen that bear fruit, but over the past year, huge, hugegains, nearly 400%, yeah, exactly. And despite that, I mean, despite 400%, still mostly fans on the street, does look like Cantor takes their target to 29, maintains the overweight. Got you. And then let's talk about toast, those shares popping today on the back of a guidance boost. The company raising its adjusted EEA the full year topping estimates now Toast, um, provides both hardware and software um to restaurants and other types of businesses here. So also kind of a good read on what's going on in the economy, and they actually raised their forecast for IEA for the full year, um, as well as for, um, well, their second quarter forecast for beating estimates here, subscription revenue coming in, um, last quarter, the first quarter a little bit higher than estimated. Yeah, street is fairly divided on this one. Stock nice runs up about 12% this year, more than 50% over the past 12 months. Uh, just looking at some analyst notes, Evercore, which has the equivalent of a hold here, stock reaction they say likely due to a mix of offsetting data points like weaker new location with promising ARR growth and the announcement of another large enterprise win that would be top golf. Julie, all right, there you go. As shares of Exxon higher this week following strong earnings, we're gonna hear from the company CEO on the other side. Stick around, much more market domination still to come. Shares of Exxon getting a boost this week following better than expected earnings on the top and bottom lines. Axon, the company that develops technology products for military and law enforcement, saw revenue for the first quarter rise 31% year over year. For more on the latest quarter and what's next, let's now Josh Ener, Axon present. Josh, it is good to see you. So you reported these results first quarter, uh, beats expectations. Josh, you raised your forecast. Walk us through the report, Josh, and, and what gave you the confidence to raise that forecast? Yeah, absolutely. And thank you for having me on today. We're really excited about what's going on at Axon right now. We're coming off a great Q1 and really a great, you know, several year run where revenues have grown in the last 3 years by an average of 30% plus. Uh, we're seeing some even dub margin expansion as well. And, uh, the pipeline keeps growing into the future. And ultimately, when we're making customers really happy and they're expressing a lot of excitement about all the new products that we'reLaunching gives us more confidence to be able to raise our outlook, which, which we're excited to do a couple days ago on our earnings call. Josh, it's really interesting because most of the companies that we've heard from this earnings season have talked about the macroeconomic environment. They've talked about tariffs. I want to take those two things one by one. Firstly, you guys said on the call there were virtually no headwinds in terms of the macro environment. Why not? Why do you think you're not seeing that? Well, ultimately, uh, most of our business is tied to, uh, state and local government spending, and there, you know, we're seeing a lot of excited customers that are having great experiences with our technology. We see a very healthy pipeline filled with both existing and, and new product opportunities. And the way our customers buy generally is, is operationally in their budget. They're not going out and grants or one-time buckets of money to spend on Axon and and what that's led to is a very stable and predictable business and you know, we're honored to be able to service our customers in that way. And so, and then let's talk about tariffs. The other piece of that you guys talked about that on the call a little bit as well, that you have diversified your supply chain. Where have you diversified it to? And do you guys have any manufacturing in places like China? So, uh, we're big on seeing around corners at Exxon, and a couple of years ago, you know, we, we took a fresh look at, at how we're, uh, managing our inventory and what types of risks there are in inventory. And certainly we saw, you know, uh, what was happening with China as a whole, and then, you know, continuing on to the China, uh, Taiwan potential conflict, and we said, look, we've got to have, uh, uh, you know,Second suppliers for all of our components, not just the major ones. And so we've really diversified our supply chain globally to include more in the US. And what that's led to in, in addition to a lot more investment in inventory on hand, has just been more predictability and stability in times like these. And so, while there's a small impact to our P&L based on the tariffs,Uh, we're really happy to reiterate our EBITA margin guidance and, and raise our revenue guidance, and, and we think this is just a result of our operations team doing a really good job managing the situation and, and seeing, seeing ahead of it. Josh, I, I, I'm also curious how you all there are leveraging AI right now, how you're leveraging AI functionality into the portfolio, Josh, and what the customer response has been. Yeah, fantastic. There's actually two different ways we're, uh, we're, we're using AI right now. One to benefit our customers, and one, you know, to benefit our employees and their productivity internally. On the customer side, we launched our first AI product about a year ago called Draft one, and this analyzes the audio transcripts that you see in the body cam videos and writes the first draft of the report for the officer. This saves them about80 to 90% of their time they spend on writing reports, which in turn gets them out into the community doing the job that they're passionate about. Uh, on the back of that last week or a couple of weeks ago, we announced our real-time translator, which is another AI tool, uh, that sits on your body camera like a, a virtual assistant. It'll translate about 100 different languages for you. Uh, if you're an officer talking to someone who doesn't speak the same and I think you'll start to see more and more assistant type functionality on the body camera itself, which our customers are very excited about. And on top of all that, we're trying to rapidly adopt tools internally, uh, that, that, uh, you know, accentuate our ability to deliver products faster to customers and, and really limit the time we spend on long bureaucratic workflows, and I think this all amounts to really for everyone in the value chain for our employees, for our customers, etc. Josh, I saw the, the translator tech. I thought that was really cool. I'm curious, are you guys using proprietary technology or are you using a different, you know, some kind of um Gen AI platform that you're putting that you're combining with that there? And then secondarily, what is the uptake been? I know that that's still in beta. Yeah, for sure. So internally, um, we use a number of different tools and platforms, uh, you know, for our AI product development, and we're really trying to diversify in that way. I think we're still in the early innings of Gen AI obviously. And so for us, it's really about, hey, how can we diversify and make sure that we're giving the customers the best tool for that exact use case. Um, and so, in terms of adoption, it's gone very, very well. Uh, you know, our sales cycles are 6 to 12 months long and within about 8 weeks of announcing our early Gen AI products, we've had phenomenal uptick and we closed, I think, 12 deals in Q4, shortly after we announced our new AI error plan that's continued to to Q1 and it will continue throughout the rest of the year. And so AI will be playing a bigger and bigger part in our results at Axon, and we're certainly excited about that. Josh, always good to see you. Always great to have you on the show. Thank you. Awesome. Nice to see you again as well. Thanks for your time. Well, while we're wrapping up today's market domination, don't go anywhere. We've got you covered with all the action following the closing bell. Stay tuned for market domination overtime. 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