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Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Despite Global Headwinds, Domestic Demand and Prudent Investment drive Small Business Optimism- ASSOCHAM-Dun & Bradstreet's Small Business Confidence Index
PRNewswire Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], June 13: ASSOCHAM along with Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, has released its Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 quarter. The findings from the Index, which tracks the optimism of small and medium enterprises in India, indicate a slight decline in small business sentiment, with the confidence index edging down by 1.8% in Apr-Jun 2025 quarter compared to the previous quarter, settling at 105.4. This suggests a more cautious outlook among small business executives. However, the index remains notably strong--up 6% year-over-year and well above the long-term average--signaling that overall optimism continues to hold steady. "The findings of the ASSOCHAM-Dun & Bradstreet Small Business Confidence Index reflect a phase of cautious optimism among India's small businesses, especially due to global uncertainties and supply chain disruptions. However, it is encouraging to note the underlying strength of domestic demand, improved hiring intentions and expectations of better financing access as monetary conditions ease. ASSOCHAM remains committed to working closely with all stakeholders to create a conducive environment for economic prosperity,'' said ASSOCHAM President Mr. Sanjay Nayar. "This edition of the Small Business Confidence Index highlights the nuanced sentiments among small businesses. A modest decline in the Confidence Index reflects a measured approach adopted by small businesses amid global trade challenges. The broader picture, however, remains positive, with strong domestic fundamentals. The small business segment continues to be a vital driver of the Indian economy. In order for them to thrive, better financing prospects, policy continuity and predictability, and convergent efforts of stakeholders will help them navigate short-term headwinds and achieve sustained growth," said ASSOCHAM Secretary-General Mr. Manish Singhal. The ASSOCHAM-D & B Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 reveals cautious recalibration amid rising global uncertainties. While domestic demand remains strong, export order expectations plunged 17 points from Jan-Mar 2025, driven by frontloaded shipments before the April 2 U.S. tariff hike and weakening global trade. Net profit expectations dropped 6 points, and selling price optimism fell 13 points, highlighting growing margin pressures from cost volatility and subdued pricing power. "The ASSOCHAM-D & B Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 quarter reflects a resilient but cautious sentiment among small businesses. Steady domestic orders, and an improved hiring outlook point to underlying strength supported by robust domestic demand. However, the sharp decline in export order expectations amid global trade tensions, particularly following U.S. tariff announcements, highlights external vulnerabilities. While small businesses are leveraging domestic tailwinds, margin pressures from rising costs and softer global demand are prompting a more conservative approach to pricing and inventory management. Sustained recovery will hinge on businesses maintaining operational agility and adapting to evolving global trade dynamics," said Mr. Avinash Gupta, Managing Director, Dun & Bradstreet India. Firms report mounting margin pressures as weakened pricing power, volatile input costs, and ongoing supply-chain bottlenecks force them into lean inventory practices rather than bulk restocking. Investment plans have been scaled back, with fixed capital outlays moderating amid global headwinds, even as stronger hiring intentions reflect cautious optimism about domestic demand. At the same time, credit access is now seen as 'normal' rather than 'easy,' suggesting tighter lending standards despite recent RBI rate cuts. Nevertheless, businesses remain hopeful that continued monetary easing will gradually restore more accommodating financing conditions. "Small businesses are standing at a critical crossroads, balancing robust domestic momentum against intensifying global headwinds, as reflected in the ASSOCHAM-D & B SBCI Index. The uptick in domestic orders, hiring sentiment, and capacity utilization reflects confidence supported by resilient consumption trends and a stable policy environment. However, the sharp fall in export order expectations, combined with weakening pricing power and more cautious investment and credit outlooks, shows firms are recalibrating strategies amid trade risks and global demand uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, Dun & Bradstreet data highlights India's advantage in sectors such as specialty chemicals, electrical machinery, and home textiles. Looking ahead, India-U.S. trade agreements will be pivotal; varying tariffs could reshape export dynamics. To remain resilient, small businesses must sharpen domestic focus, optimize capital allocation, and adapt swiftly to shifting global trade policies," said Dr Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet. As the external environment becomes more uncertain, sustaining confidence will hinge on how effectively businesses can adapt, by managing input costs, preserving margins, and aligning investment strategies with evolving market conditions. Strengthening domestic enablers while mitigating external vulnerabilities will be crucial for maintaining the growth momentum of India's small business sector in the quarters ahead. About ASSOCHAM: The Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) is the country's oldest apex The Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) is the country's oldest apex chamber. It delivers actionable insights to strengthen the Indian ecosystem, leveraging its extensive network of over 450,000 corporate members, with MSMEs forming a significant segment. With a strong presence across Indian States and key cities, ASSOCHAM also includes more than 100 associations, federations, and regional chambers. Aligned with the vision of building a Viksit Bharat, ASSOCHAM serves as a vital link between industry and government. As an agile and forward-looking institution, the Chamber spearheads various initiatives aimed at enhancing the global competitiveness of Indian industry while reinforcing the domestic business environment. With over 70 national and regional sector councils, ASSOCHAM effectively represents diverse segments of Indian industry. These councils are led by prominent industry leaders, academicians, economists, and independent professionals, and focus on aligning industry priorities with the nation's growth aspirations. ASSOCHAM is currently driving four strategic priorities: Sustainability, Globalization, Startups & Innovation, and the Digital Economy. The Chamber believes that focused efforts in these areas are key to fostering inclusive and sustainable socio-economic development. In collaboration with the government, regulators, and national and international think tanks, ASSOCHAM contributes to policy formulation and provides critical feedback on the implementation of high-impact decisions. Staying future-ready, the Chamber is also cultivating a robust network of knowledge architects to help shape India's transition into a technology-driven, knowledge-based economy. ASSOCHAM aims to empower stakeholders by promoting knowledge as the catalyst for growth in a dynamic global environment. Beyond industry engagement, ASSOCHAM actively supports civil society through initiatives focused on inclusive development. Its member network leads efforts across a wide range of sectors including empowerment, healthcare, education and skill development, hygiene, affirmative action, road safety, livelihoods, life skills, and sustainability. More information available on About Dun & Bradstreet: Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, enables companies around the world to improve their business performance. Dun & Bradstreet's Data Cloud fuels solutions and delivers insights that empower customers to accelerate revenue, lower cost, mitigate risk and transform their businesses. Since 1841, companies of every size have relied on Dun & Bradstreet to help them manage risk and reveal opportunity. For more information on Dun & Bradstreet, please visit Dun & Bradstreet Information Services India Private Limited is headquartered in Mumbai and provides clients with data-driven products and technology-driven platforms to help them take faster and more accurate decisions across finance, risk, compliance, information technology and marketing. Working towards Government of India's vision of creating an Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) by supporting the Make in India initiative, Dun & Bradstreet India has a special focus on helping entrepreneurs enhance their visibility, increase their credibility, expand access to global markets, and identify potential customers & suppliers, while managing risk and opportunity. India is also the home to Dun & Bradstreet Technology & Corporate Services LLP, which is the Global Capabilities Center (GCC) of Dun & Bradstreet supporting global technology delivery using cutting-edge technology. Located at Hyderabad, the GCC has a highly skilled workforce of over 500 employees, and focuses on enhanced productivity, economies of scale, consistent delivery processes and lower operating expenses. Visit for more information. Click here for all Dun & Bradstreet India press releases.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Despite Global Headwinds, Domestic Demand and Prudent Investment drive Small Business Optimism- ASSOCHAM-Dun & Bradstreet's Small Business Confidence Index
MUMBAI, India, June 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- ASSOCHAM along with Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, has released its Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 quarter. The findings from the Index, which tracks the optimism of small and medium enterprises in India, indicate a slight decline in small business sentiment, with the confidence index edging down by 1.8% in Apr-Jun 2025 quarter compared to the previous quarter, settling at 105.4. This suggests a more cautious outlook among small business executives. However, the index remains notably strong—up 6% year-over-year and well above the long-term average—signaling that overall optimism continues to hold steady. "The findings of the ASSOCHAM–Dun & Bradstreet Small Business Confidence Index reflect a phase of cautious optimism among India's small businesses, especially due to global uncertainties and supply chain disruptions. However, it is encouraging to note the underlying strength of domestic demand, improved hiring intentions and expectations of better financing access as monetary conditions ease. ASSOCHAM remains committed to working closely with all stakeholders to create a conducive environment for economic prosperity,'' said ASSOCHAM President Mr. Sanjay Nayar. "This edition of the Small Business Confidence Index highlights the nuanced sentiments among small businesses. A modest decline in the Confidence Index reflects a measured approach adopted by small businesses amid global trade challenges. The broader picture, however, remains positive, with strong domestic fundamentals. The small business segment continues to be a vital driver of the Indian economy. In order for them to thrive, better financing prospects, policy continuity and predictability, and convergent efforts of stakeholders will help them navigate short-term headwinds and achieve sustained growth," said ASSOCHAM Secretary-General Mr. Manish Singhal. The ASSOCHAM–D&B Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 reveals cautious recalibration amid rising global uncertainties. While domestic demand remains strong, export order expectations plunged 17 points from Jan-Mar 2025, driven by frontloaded shipments before the April 2 U.S. tariff hike and weakening global trade. Net profit expectations dropped 6 points, and selling price optimism fell 13 points, highlighting growing margin pressures from cost volatility and subdued pricing power. "The ASSOCHAM–D&B Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 quarter reflects a resilient but cautious sentiment among small businesses. Steady domestic orders, and an improved hiring outlook point to underlying strength supported by robust domestic demand. However, the sharp decline in export order expectations amid global trade tensions, particularly following U.S. tariff announcements, highlights external vulnerabilities. While small businesses are leveraging domestic tailwinds, margin pressures from rising costs and softer global demand are prompting a more conservative approach to pricing and inventory management. Sustained recovery will hinge on businesses maintaining operational agility and adapting to evolving global trade dynamics," said Mr. Avinash Gupta, Managing Director, Dun & Bradstreet India. Firms report mounting margin pressures as weakened pricing power, volatile input costs, and ongoing supply-chain bottlenecks force them into lean inventory practices rather than bulk restocking. Investment plans have been scaled back, with fixed capital outlays moderating amid global headwinds, even as stronger hiring intentions reflect cautious optimism about domestic demand. At the same time, credit access is now seen as 'normal' rather than 'easy,' suggesting tighter lending standards despite recent RBI rate cuts. Nevertheless, businesses remain hopeful that continued monetary easing will gradually restore more accommodating financing conditions. "Small businesses are standing at a critical crossroads, balancing robust domestic momentum against intensifying global headwinds, as reflected in the ASSOCHAM–D&B SBCI Index. The uptick in domestic orders, hiring sentiment, and capacity utilization reflects confidence supported by resilient consumption trends and a stable policy environment. However, the sharp fall in export order expectations, combined with weakening pricing power and more cautious investment and credit outlooks, shows firms are recalibrating strategies amid trade risks and global demand uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, Dun & Bradstreet data highlights India's advantage in sectors such as specialty chemicals, electrical machinery, and home textiles. Looking ahead, India–U.S. trade agreements will be pivotal; varying tariffs could reshape export dynamics. To remain resilient, small businesses must sharpen domestic focus, optimize capital allocation, and adapt swiftly to shifting global trade policies," said Dr Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet. As the external environment becomes more uncertain, sustaining confidence will hinge on how effectively businesses can adapt, by managing input costs, preserving margins, and aligning investment strategies with evolving market conditions. Strengthening domestic enablers while mitigating external vulnerabilities will be crucial for maintaining the growth momentum of India's small business sector in the quarters ahead. About ASSOCHAM: The Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) is the country's oldest apex The Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) is the country's oldest apex chamber. It delivers actionable insights to strengthen the Indian ecosystem, leveraging its extensive network of over 450,000 corporate members, with MSMEs forming a significant segment. With a strong presence across Indian States and key cities, ASSOCHAM also includes more than 100 associations, federations, and regional chambers. Aligned with the vision of building a Viksit Bharat, ASSOCHAM serves as a vital link between industry and government. As an agile and forward-looking institution, the Chamber spearheads various initiatives aimed at enhancing the global competitiveness of Indian industry while reinforcing the domestic business environment. With over 70 national and regional sector councils, ASSOCHAM effectively represents diverse segments of Indian industry. These councils are led by prominent industry leaders, academicians, economists, and independent professionals, and focus on aligning industry priorities with the nation's growth aspirations. ASSOCHAM is currently driving four strategic priorities: Sustainability, Globalization, Startups & Innovation, and the Digital Economy. The Chamber believes that focused efforts in these areas are key to fostering inclusive and sustainable socio-economic development. In collaboration with the government, regulators, and national and international think tanks, ASSOCHAM contributes to policy formulation and provides critical feedback on the implementation of high-impact decisions. Staying future-ready, the Chamber is also cultivating a robust network of knowledge architects to help shape India's transition into a technology-driven, knowledge-based economy. ASSOCHAM aims to empower stakeholders by promoting knowledge as the catalyst for growth in a dynamic global environment. Beyond industry engagement, ASSOCHAM actively supports civil society through initiatives focused on inclusive development. Its member network leads efforts across a wide range of sectors including empowerment, healthcare, education and skill development, hygiene, affirmative action, road safety, livelihoods, life skills, and sustainability. More information available on About Dun & Bradstreet: Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, enables companies around the world to improve their business performance. Dun & Bradstreet's Data Cloud fuels solutions and delivers insights that empower customers to accelerate revenue, lower cost, mitigate risk and transform their businesses. Since 1841, companies of every size have relied on Dun & Bradstreet to help them manage risk and reveal opportunity. For more information on Dun & Bradstreet, please visit Dun & Bradstreet Information Services India Private Limited is headquartered in Mumbai and provides clients with data-driven products and technology-driven platforms to help them take faster and more accurate decisions across finance, risk, compliance, information technology and marketing. Working towards Government of India's vision of creating an Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) by supporting the Make in India initiative, Dun & Bradstreet India has a special focus on helping entrepreneurs enhance their visibility, increase their credibility, expand access to global markets, and identify potential customers & suppliers, while managing risk and opportunity. India is also the home to Dun & Bradstreet Technology & Corporate Services LLP, which is the Global Capabilities Center (GCC) of Dun & Bradstreet supporting global technology delivery using cutting-edge technology. Located at Hyderabad, the GCC has a highly skilled workforce of over 500 employees, and focuses on enhanced productivity, economies of scale, consistent delivery processes and lower operating expenses. Visit for more information. Click here for all Dun & Bradstreet India press releases. Logo: View original content to download multimedia: Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Report: 70% of Small Businesses Believe US Headed Toward Recession
The vast majority of small business owners are none too pleased about the state of the country's economy. A whopping 70 percent of them believe the U.S. is headed toward a recession, according to CNBC and SurveyMonkey's Small Business Confidence Index for the second quarter. Nearly all (95 percent) of surveyed Democrat SMB owners foresee a dramatic economic slowdown, compared with almost half of Republicans (47 percent). More from Sourcing Journal China Has 'Agreed to Open Up' Trade With US as Both Countries Suspend Aggressive Duties Trump Touts 'Total Reset' in US-China Trade Relationship Can Small Sustainable Fashion Brands Survive Trump 2.0? Meanwhile, just 30 percent of the 2,257 individuals queried between April 21 and April 25 said they see the current economic outlook as 'excellent' or even 'good.' That's down 9 percentage points from the groups' most recent survey, conducted during the previous quarter. Much of small business owners' pessimism seems to stem from a predictable source: tariffs. Two-thirds said they expect President Donald Trump's 10-percent universal baseline tariffs and his varied 'reciprocal' duties on more than 60 of the country's most prominent trading partners to impact their businesses, and 31 percent said they've already experienced adverse effects. More than one-third (35 percent) are actively bracing for the future with an anxious eye toward what new trade policy might be coming down the pike, and 59 percent are concerned about what could happen now or in the future. Notably, the majority of respondents (54 percent), including 95 percent of Democrats and 84 percent of Republicans, oppose the tariffs. Seventeen percent cited tariffs as the biggest risk to business. A lot of unease stems from fears about inflation flaring up again after seeming to cool and stabilize early in the year. Most SMB owners (72 percent) said they expect the price of goods to go up (compared to 63 percent who said the same during the previous quarter), and just 27 percent believe inflation has reached its peak (down from 36 percent who said the same in Q1). The issue is the biggest concern among small business owners, with 52 percent calling it their biggest source of financial stress, and 24 percent citing rising costs as the most pressing risk to their livelihoods, followed by weakening consumer demand (18 percent). These factors have done a number on small business confidence, the survey showed. Calculated through an amalgamation of all responses related to stressors and the economy, the small business confidence index declined 'sharply' to 51, down from 56 in the first quarter, analysts wrote. Survey respondents displayed negative sentiment across nearly all business conditions, from future business revenue to employment, technological innovation, government and trade policy. Only 36 percent characterized current business conditions as favorable, down from 42 percent during the previous quarter, and only 41 percent believe revenue will increase during the next 12 months (an 11-percent drop from the first quarter). This spells bad news for the job market: just 22 percent said they expect to up headcount over the course of the next year, down 6 basis points. Gazing into a crystal ball doesn't provide much relief, with the federal government's trade policy already impacting orders and business for future seasons. Forty-four percent of SMB owners said they believe governmental regulations and trade policy (51 percent) to have negative impacts on their bottom lines, and 37 percent feel the same way about tax policy. 'Small business owners across the political spectrum see declining sentiment, with Democrats declining from 37 to 33 the previous quarter, Republicans 72 to 68, and Independents 51 to 45,' analysts wrote. By contrast, supply chain decision-makers are feeling bullish about their prospects amid the tariff uncertainty. RSM's recently released Supply Chain Special Report, which compiled the results of a survey of 309 supply chain decision makers and influencers from the U.S. and Canada during the month of March, showed that the greater majority of supply chain companies (85 percent) are very or somewhat prepared to contend with the rollout of trade and tariff policies over the course of the next 12 months. Predictably, though, stances on tariffs vary between the U.S. and Canada, with 87 percent and 76 percent, respectively, saying they were prepared to some degree. Since the survey was taken, the tariff landscape has changed considerably; Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements took place on April 2, after respondents were asked about their outlook. 'The pandemic forced businesses to improve supply chain data and have better information overall about where goods were coming from,' Dr. Tu Nguyen, RSM Canada economist, said. Years of supply chain shakeups that began in 2020 have opened the eyes of supply chain managers, underscoring the need to improve resilience and visibility and making preparedness a priority. 'While things seem to be a lot better now, the current uncertainty in the trade environment could be another wake-up call for businesses that still don't have the best transparency or visibility into their supply chain,' Nguyen said. While many of the firms surveyed said they felt prepared to weather an upcoming storm from a business perspective, they had varied views on the potential economic impacts of tariff policy. The largest contingent (40 percent) said they foresee a negative impact, while 36 percent think the effects of the tariff scheme will be positive and 24 percent said they predicted no impacts at all. 'If your business—or even a product or product line within your business—has a lower exposure to tariffs as compared to your competition, then you suddenly have a significant opportunity to gain market share from your competitors,' RSM U.S. management consulting principal and supply chain leader Casey Chapman said. 'No doubt we will see more 'Buy American' messages as the companies take advantage of the moment.' According to RSM analysts, some organizations are planning to pass along costs to customers, and some are ordering more stock now in anticipation of the duty rollouts—though inventories are still dwindling. Others are utilizing bonded warehouses and free trade zones—all strategies to hopefully circumvent the blunt force impact of the added duties, some of which, like those on China-made goods, are in the triple digits. Sign in to access your portfolio
