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Economic Times
26-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
What does Nifty's surge above 200-DMA mean for investors?
Agencies Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: The recent rebound in the stock market has pushed the Nifty above its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA)-a long-term trend indicator-signalling a bullish undertone among blue chips. Beneath the surface, the optimistic mood may not be as widespread, but it's more sanguine than it was a couple of months the top 500 stocks, 226 are trading above 200-day moving averages, according to Axis Securities . When a stock or an index is above its 200 DMA, it's said to be in a long-term uptrend and vice versa. It's the average price of a stock or index over the last 200 trading days, which is close to a full trading year, helping investors get a better view of the price trends over a longer period. Nifty's 200-DMA is at 24,631, about 0.9% below Friday's closing level of 24, the stocks that are above 200-DMAs are still less than 50% in Nifty 500 index, it's higher compared to 95 in March and 45 in February, a sign of gradually improving investor confidence with a tinge of caution."The investor sentiment has improved significantly since February-March as the broader market has witnessed renewed buying interest, but the recovery is gradual as investors remain selective buyers focusing on companies that delivered good results," said Ruchit Jain, vice president- head technical research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Of the stocks trading above 200- DMA, 62 are trading 10-20% away from the average price and 15 are at a 20-30% distance, while 138 are as much as 10% away. 11 stocks are trading 30% above their 200-DMA, according to Axis. Similarly, 162 stocks are up to 10% below the 200- DMA, 69 are 10-20% below the level, and 25 are over 20% bullish conditions, fewer than 50% of the top 500 stocks below the 200-DMA would not be a reason to celebrate, but given the lingering concerns over the economic fallout of tariffs and uncertainty over corporate earnings, optimists would consider this number acceptable.'Despite the muted fourth quarter earnings, a greater number of stocks out of the NSE 500 universe are trading above the 200-DMA compared to February and March, indicating investor confidence is returning on the street,' said Rajesh Palviya, head of technical and derivatives, Axis Nifty 500 Index slumped by nearly 8% in February but bounced back in March and April, gaining 7.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Nifty Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 indices have risen 17.6% and 20.2%, respectively, from their lows this year on February 28 and March 3.'Mid-caps moved up when domestic investors bought, and large-cap names performed well when foreign investors began purchasing after a period of aggressive sell-off, so there has been rotation among the stocks,' said Jain.


Time of India
26-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
What does Nifty's surge above 200-DMA mean for investors?
Mumbai: The recent rebound in the stock market has pushed the Nifty above its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA)-a long-term trend indicator-signalling a bullish undertone among blue chips. Beneath the surface, the optimistic mood may not be as widespread, but it's more sanguine than it was a couple of months ago. Of the top 500 stocks, 226 are trading above 200-day moving averages, according to Axis Securities . When a stock or an index is above its 200 DMA, it's said to be in a long-term uptrend and vice versa. It's the average price of a stock or index over the last 200 trading days, which is close to a full trading year, helping investors get a better view of the price trends over a longer period. Nifty's 200-DMA is at 24,631, about 0.9% below Friday's closing level of 24,853. Though the stocks that are above 200-DMAs are still less than 50% in Nifty 500 index, it's higher compared to 95 in March and 45 in February, a sign of gradually improving investor confidence with a tinge of caution. "The investor sentiment has improved significantly since February-March as the broader market has witnessed renewed buying interest, but the recovery is gradual as investors remain selective buyers focusing on companies that delivered good results," said Ruchit Jain, vice president- head technical research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services . Agencies Of the stocks trading above 200- DMA, 62 are trading 10-20% away from the average price and 15 are at a 20-30% distance, while 138 are as much as 10% away. 11 stocks are trading 30% above their 200-DMA, according to Axis. Similarly, 162 stocks are up to 10% below the 200- DMA, 69 are 10-20% below the level, and 25 are over 20% away. In bullish conditions, fewer than 50% of the top 500 stocks below the 200-DMA would not be a reason to celebrate, but given the lingering concerns over the economic fallout of tariffs and uncertainty over corporate earnings, optimists would consider this number acceptable. 'Despite the muted fourth quarter earnings, a greater number of stocks out of the NSE 500 universe are trading above the 200-DMA compared to February and March, indicating investor confidence is returning on the street,' said Rajesh Palviya, head of technical and derivatives, Axis Securities. The Nifty 500 Index slumped by nearly 8% in February but bounced back in March and April, gaining 7.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Nifty Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 indices have risen 17.6% and 20.2%, respectively, from their lows this year on February 28 and March 3. 'Mid-caps moved up when domestic investors bought, and large-cap names performed well when foreign investors began purchasing after a period of aggressive sell-off, so there has been rotation among the stocks,' said Jain.


Economic Times
18-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty's 25K breakout has more legs, smallcaps signal risk-on mood: Geojit's Anand James
Synopsis Nifty's breakout above 25,000 signals strong momentum, though many stocks remain below past peaks. Smallcaps show broad strength, defence stocks may see short-term fatigue, and banking looks bullish on strong cues. Stock-specific moves in Adani Green and Jindal Steel are favored, while IT may undergo consolidation before the next rally. Nifty's breakout above 25,000 reflects strong momentum, with 42% of its constituents being at least 10% below their respective September peaks, says Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. In an interview with ETMarkets, he breaks down the signals in smallcaps, defence, and banking stocks, while flagging key breakout trades like Adani Green and Jindal Steel to ride the bull wave. ADVERTISEMENT The quick ascent is characteristic to trending markets. But Nifty is still 4.6% below the record peak hit in September 2024, while 42% of its constituents are at least 10% below their respective September peaks. Also, only 14% of the constituents are above the upper Bollinger band, suggesting that we could have more leaders stepping in and helping Nifty continue the ascent. Also, Nifty is only 2.5% away from the 20-day SMA, pointing to more room for upsides. Yes, we see that markets are in a risk-on mode, and hesitation for the small cap index previously visible is not present anymore. That said, there is no froth either yet, with only 14% of the Smallcap 250 index constituents having an RSI of 70 or above, suggesting overbought conditions and 40% of small cap stocks having an RSI below 60 pointing at more leg room higher. Also, only 22% of the small caps have risen above their September peaks, echoing the same sentiments. Further only under 30% stocks are above 2 standard deviations from 20 day SMA, suggesting that we are not yet extreme situations yet, which augurs well for a more broad based strength in the small cap space. The bullish momentum in defence stocks continued, with most stocks successfully breaking above their weekly supertrend levels. However, the average daily RSI has now surged past 70, entering the overbought zone. This suggests that the sector may be approaching a near-term exhaustion phase. Stocks such as GRSE, Mazagon Dock, Data Patterns, and BDL, which have seen significant gains, could be vulnerable to profit booking. While a final leg of upside may still be in play early in the week, caution is advised as overbought conditions could trigger short-term corrections. Investors should watch for signs of reversal or consolidation in high-flying names. On the other hand, Cochin Shipyard and BEL appear poised to emerge as potential outperformers in the coming sessions, possibly benefiting from rotational buying within the outperformance in Nifty IT index over this week rode on Monday's steep rise. The IT index showed signs of exhaustion as the week progressed, unable to surpass Monday's high. This inability to break resistance, coupled with a 60% short buildup across IT stocks, suggests a cautious stance in the near term. ADVERTISEMENT Despite this, the weekly charts for heavyweight IT stocks remain structurally positive, indicating that the current phase may be a healthy consolidation before the next leg of the uptrend. In contrast, the Bank Nifty appears poised for gains, supported by strong technical and derivative cues.A significant 75% of banking stocks have seen short covering on a weekly basis, and 58% witnessed fresh long positions today, reflecting growing bullish sentiment. Major players like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Bank are showing average RSI values around 57, suggesting ample room for further upside. ADVERTISEMENT The only notable laggard is SBI. With rate sensitives in focus amidst expectation of policy easing by RBI as inflation has come down, the banking sector could remain positive. That said, some of the IT index constituents are yet to see the breakout move that has begun to become visible across sectors. Towards this end, we do not recommend a complete sectoral rotation, but a stock wise shuffling may be advised to make the most of this of 62% fibo of the Jan-April move as well as the vicinity of the November 2024 trough (8574) makes a case for limited upside this week. But this period may not mark an end to the uptrend, despite the steep run higher since 7th of April. Dips may be bought, with downside markers placed below 7,400. ADVERTISEMENT ADANI GREEN (CMP: 1,020)View - BuyTarget - 1,075Stoploss - 943 ADVERTISEMENT The stock has broken above the horizontal channel resistance and ended both the day and the week with a bullish Marubozu candle, indicating strong positive momentum. The monthly SMIO is also on the verge of crossing above the zero line, and the stock has closed above the 20-week moving average for the first time since September 2024—further confirming the potential for an upside move. We anticipate the stock to advance towards 1,075 in the coming weeks. All long positions should be protected with a stop-loss placed below STEEL (CMP: 981)View - BuyTarget - 1,060Stoploss - 914The stock has broken above the declining weekly trendline resistance this week and concluded the week with a strong Bullish Marubozu candle, signaling renewed positive sentiment. It has also closed above the 50-week moving average for the first time since December 2024. Additionally, the monthly SMIO is nearing a crossover above the zero line, suggesting the potential for a sustained upward move. We anticipate the stock to head towards the 1,060 level in the coming weeks. Long positions should be safeguarded with a stop-loss set below 914. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) niftysmallcapsdefencebankingadani greenjindal steel Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? 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Time of India
18-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Nifty's 25K breakout has more legs, smallcaps signal risk-on mood: Geojit's Anand James
Nifty 's breakout above 25,000 reflects strong momentum, with 42% of its constituents being at least 10% below their respective September peaks, says Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. In an interview with ETMarkets, he breaks down the signals in smallcaps , defence , and banking stocks, while flagging key breakout trades like Adani Green and Jindal Steel to ride the bull wave. Edited excerpts from a chat: Nifty crossed 25k with conviction during the week. Now how strong are the chances of sustaining the level after a 4.2% rally in just 5 trading sessions? The quick ascent is characteristic to trending markets. But Nifty is still 4.6% below the record peak hit in September 2024, while 42% of its constituents are at least 10% below their respective September peaks. Also, only 14% of the constituents are above the upper Bollinger band, suggesting that we could have more leaders stepping in and helping Nifty continue the ascent. Also, Nifty is only 2.5% away from the 20-day SMA, pointing to more room for upsides. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villas For Sale in Dubai Might Surprise You Villas In Dubai | Search Ads Get Rates Undo We saw a massive rally in small caps which indicates that the risk-on mode is back with a bang suddenly on Dalal Street. How do you read this strength in smallcaps? Yes, we see that markets are in a risk-on mode, and hesitation for the small cap index previously visible is not present anymore. That said, there is no froth either yet, with only 14% of the Smallcap 250 index constituents having an RSI of 70 or above, suggesting overbought conditions and 40% of small cap stocks having an RSI below 60 pointing at more leg room higher. Also, only 22% of the small caps have risen above their September peaks, echoing the same sentiments. Further only under 30% stocks are above 2 standard deviations from 20 day SMA, suggesting that we are not yet extreme situations yet, which augurs well for a more broad based strength in the small cap space. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. All those investors who had sold (booked profits or losses) in defence stocks are now having FOMO. Given that the rally is coming after months of weak performance, does it have enough legs for a longer run? The bullish momentum in defence stocks continued, with most stocks successfully breaking above their weekly supertrend levels. However, the average daily RSI has now surged past 70, entering the overbought zone. This suggests that the sector may be approaching a near-term exhaustion phase. Stocks such as GRSE, Mazagon Dock, Data Patterns, and BDL, which have seen significant gains, could be vulnerable to profit booking. While a final leg of upside may still be in play early in the week, caution is advised as overbought conditions could trigger short-term corrections. Investors should watch for signs of reversal or consolidation in high-flying names. On the other hand, Cochin Shipyard and BEL appear poised to emerge as potential outperformers in the coming sessions, possibly benefiting from rotational buying within the sector. Live Events Nifty IT outperformed Bank Nifty during the week with a wide margin. Where would you place your bets going ahead? The outperformance in Nifty IT index over this week rode on Monday's steep rise. The IT index showed signs of exhaustion as the week progressed, unable to surpass Monday's high. This inability to break resistance, coupled with a 60% short buildup across IT stocks, suggests a cautious stance in the near term. Despite this, the weekly charts for heavyweight IT stocks remain structurally positive, indicating that the current phase may be a healthy consolidation before the next leg of the uptrend. In contrast, the Bank Nifty appears poised for gains, supported by strong technical and derivative cues. A significant 75% of banking stocks have seen short covering on a weekly basis, and 58% witnessed fresh long positions today, reflecting growing bullish sentiment. Major players like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Bank are showing average RSI values around 57, suggesting ample room for further upside. The only notable laggard is SBI. With rate sensitives in focus amidst expectation of policy easing by RBI as inflation has come down, the banking sector could remain positive. That said, some of the IT index constituents are yet to see the breakout move that has begun to become visible across sectors. Towards this end, we do not recommend a complete sectoral rotation, but a stock wise shuffling may be advised to make the most of this phase. Apar Industries' shares rallied 35% amid solid numbers from Q4 results. Do you see profit booking ahead? Approach of 62% fibo of the Jan-April move as well as the vicinity of the November 2024 trough (8574) makes a case for limited upside this week. But this period may not mark an end to the uptrend, despite the steep run higher since 7th of April. Dips may be bought, with downside markers placed below 7,400. Give us your top ideas of the week to make the most of the bull run. ADANI GREEN (CMP: 1,020) View - Buy Target - 1,075 Stoploss - 943 The stock has broken above the horizontal channel resistance and ended both the day and the week with a bullish Marubozu candle, indicating strong positive momentum. The monthly SMIO is also on the verge of crossing above the zero line, and the stock has closed above the 20-week moving average for the first time since September 2024—further confirming the potential for an upside move. We anticipate the stock to advance towards 1,075 in the coming weeks. All long positions should be protected with a stop-loss placed below 943. JINDAL STEEL (CMP: 981) View - Buy Target - 1,060 Stoploss - 914 The stock has broken above the declining weekly trendline resistance this week and concluded the week with a strong Bullish Marubozu candle, signaling renewed positive sentiment. It has also closed above the 50-week moving average for the first time since December 2024. Additionally, the monthly SMIO is nearing a crossover above the zero line, suggesting the potential for a sustained upward move. We anticipate the stock to head towards the 1,060 level in the coming weeks. Long positions should be safeguarded with a stop-loss set below 914.