Latest news with #SolomonHsiang
GMA Network
7 hours ago
- Science
- GMA Network
Climate change could cut crop yields up to a quarter, says scientists
PARIS, France - Climate change is on track to reduce by 11 percent in 2100 the yields that today provide two-thirds of humanity's calories from crops, even taking into account adaptation to a warming world, scientists said Wednesday. As soon as 2050, this "moderate" scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040 and slowly taper off -- a trajectory aligned with current trends -- would see global losses of nearly eight percent. And if carbon pollution worsens, the loss of calories across the same six staples -- corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, sorghum and cassava -- rises to nearly a quarter by century's end, the researchers reported in Nature. More generally, every additional degree Celsius of warming reduces the world's ability to produce food from these crops by 120 calories per person per day, or nearly five percent of current daily consumption, they calculated. "If the climate warms by three degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a professor at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability in California. The steepest losses will occur at the extremes of the agricultural economy: in modern, Big Ag breadbaskets that currently enjoy some of the world's best growing conditions, and in subsistence farming communities that typically rely of small cassava harvests. North America would be hit hardest, losing a fifth of yields by 2100 in the moderate carbon pollution scenario, and two-fifths if emissions from burning fossil fuels continue apace. Working with more than a dozen scientists, Hsiang and co-leader Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor at the University of Urbana-Champaign, sifted through data from more than 12,000 regions in 55 countries. Erratic weather Previous calculations of how a warming world will impact crop yields generally failed to consider the ways in which farmers would adapt, such as switching crop varieties, shifting planting and harvesting dates, and altering fertiliser use. The scientists estimated such adjustments would offset about a third of climate related losses over the next 75 years in the scenario of rising emissions, but that residual impacts would still be devastating. "Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses for agriculture," said Hultgren. With the planet about 1.5C hotter than preindustrial levels in the late 1900s, farmers in many regions are already experiencing longer dry spells, unseasonable heatwaves and erratic weather that undermines yields. The nutritional value of most crops also declines with hotter temperatures, earlier research has shown. The study revealed sharp variations in the impact of global warming on different crops and regions. In the "worst-case" scenario of rising carbon emissions, corn yields would plummet 40 percent by 2100 across the grain belt of the United States, eastern China, central Asia, and the Middle East. For soybeans, yields in the US would decline by half, and increase by a fifth in Brazil. Wheat losses would drop by a fifth in eastern and western Europe, and by 30 to 40 percent in other wheat-growing regions: China, Russia and North America. Cassava would be hit hard everywhere it's grown. "Although cassava does not make up a large portion of global agricultural revenues, it is an important subsistence crop in low- and middle-income countries," the researchers pointed out. Among the six crops examined, rice is the only one that stands to benefit in a warmer climate, mainly due to warmer nights. — Agence France-Presse
Telegraph
9 hours ago
- Science
- Telegraph
Climate change impact on food ‘like everyone giving up breakfast'
The impact of climate change on food production will be equivalent to everyone on the planet giving up breakfast, a study has warned. Every additional degree Celsius of global warming will drag down the world's ability to produce food by 120 calories per person per day, or 4.4 per cent of current daily consumption, the American research found. Global warming will dramatically alter which parts of the world will be able to grow crops in the coming decades, reducing the total amount of food that can be produced. 'When global production falls, consumers are hurt because prices go up and it gets harder to access food and feed our families,' said Solomon Hsiang, a professor of environmental social sciences at Stanford University and a co-author of the study. 'If the climate warms by three degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast.' US 'bread baskets' could experience 40pc drop The researchers modelled the future farming impact in 54 different countries for six crops – corn, soybean, barley, wheat, rice and cassava. They factored in changes farmers are likely to make to adapt to the altering climate, in order to make their most accurate projections yet. Arable heartlands are predicted to be hit hardest, the study found. Production of corn in the US, for example, could drop by as much as 40 per cent by the end of this century. The UK and northern Europe could see a 10 per cent rise in corn production, but the global outcome is a net negative. 'Places in the Midwest US that are really well suited for present day corn and soybean production just get hammered under a high warming future,' said Andrew Hultgren, a study author and an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 'You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future.' But while the US and other 'bread basket' regions are major losers in the future, according to the study, other regions will become better-suited, including Russia and China. 'We will be making Russia and China richer' 'This is basically like sending our agricultural profits overseas. We will be sending benefits to producers in Canada, Russia, China,' said Prof Hsiang. 'Those are the winners, and we in the US are the losers. The longer we wait to reduce emissions, the more money we lose.' The study looked at a range of different global warming scenarios up to and including 2100 to determine the range of possible outcomes. 'Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture,' said Dr Hultgren. The modelling points to a 50-50 likelihood that global rice yields will increase on a hotter planet in the future because rice cultivation benefits from warmer nights. However, it is up to 90 per cent likely that yields will decline by 2100, the scientists found, The study authors wrote: 'We find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day bread baskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions are also substantial.'
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Science
- Yahoo
Climate change impact on food ‘like everyone giving up breakfast'
The impact of climate change on food production will be equivalent to everyone on the planet giving up breakfast, a study has warned. Every additional degree Celsius of global warming will drag down the world's ability to produce food by 120 calories per person per day, or 4.4 per cent of current daily consumption, the American research found. Global warming will dramatically alter which parts of the world will be able to grow crops in the coming decades, reducing the total amount of food that can be produced. 'When global production falls, consumers are hurt because prices go up and it gets harder to access food and feed our families,' said Solomon Hsiang, a professor of environmental social sciences at Stanford University and a co-author of the study. 'If the climate warms by three degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast.' The researchers modelled the future farming impact in 54 different countries for six crops – corn, soybean, barley, wheat, rice and cassava. They factored in changes farmers are likely to make to adapt to the altering climate, in order to make their most accurate projections yet. Arable heartlands are predicted to be hit hardest, the study found. Production of corn in the US, for example, could drop by as much as 40 per cent by the end of this century. The UK and northern Europe could see a 10 per cent rise in corn production, but the global outcome is a net negative. 'Places in the Midwest US that are really well suited for present day corn and soybean production just get hammered under a high warming future,' said Andrew Hultgren, a study author and an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 'You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future.' But while the US and other 'bread basket' regions are major losers in the future, according to the study, other regions will become better-suited, including Russia and China. 'This is basically like sending our agricultural profits overseas. We will be sending benefits to producers in Canada, Russia, China,' said Prof Hsiang. 'Those are the winners, and we in the US are the losers. The longer we wait to reduce emissions, the more money we lose.' The study looked at a range of different global warming scenarios up to and including 2100 to determine the range of possible outcomes. 'Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture,' said Dr Hultgren. The modelling points to a 50-50 likelihood that global rice yields will increase on a hotter planet in the future because rice cultivation benefits from warmer nights. However, it is up to 90 per cent likely that yields will decline by 2100, the scientists found, The study authors wrote: 'We find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day bread baskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions are also substantial.' The paper is published in Nature. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Fast Company
10 hours ago
- Science
- Fast Company
Climate crisis could wipe out half of U.S. crops by 2100, scientists warn
A major new study published in Nature examines how rising temperatures will impact global food systems, and the results offer a dire warning for wealthy countries. As the planet warms, the environments that grow the most-consumed crops around the globe are changing, but there's been a lot of disagreement about what those changes will look like. Counter to some more optimistic previous findings, the new study finds that every degree Celsius that the planet warms could result in 120 calories worth of food production lost per person, per day. The new analysis is the result of almost a decade of work by the Climate Impact Lab, a consortium of climate, agriculture and policy experts. The research brings together data from more than 12,000 regions in 55 countries, with a focus on wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, barley and cassava – the core crops that account for two-thirds of calories consumed globally. 'When global production falls, consumers are hurt because prices go up and it gets harder to access food and feed our families,' Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability Professor Solomon Hsiang, a senior author on the study, said in an announcement paired with the new paper. 'If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast.' Adaptation won't offset farming losses Some previous research has hinted that global food production could actually go up in a warming planet by lengthening growing seasons and widening the viable regions where some crops can grow. In Western American states like Washington and California, growing seasons are already substantially longer than they once were, adding an average of 2.2 days per decade since 1895. The new study criticizes previous research for failing to realistically estimate how farmers will adapt to a changing climate. While prior studies rely on an all-or-nothing model for agricultural climate adaptation where farmers either adapted flawlessly or didn't adapt at all, the new paper in Nature 'systematically measure[s] how much farmers adjust to changing conditions,' a first according to the research group. That analysis found that farmers who do adapt by switching to new crops or changing long-standing planting and harvesting practices could lessen a third of climate-caused losses in crop yields by 2100. But even in a best-case scenario of climate adaptation, food production is on track to take a major hit. 'Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture,' lead author and University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Assistant Professor of agricultural and consumer economics Andrew Hultgren said. While wealthy countries are insulated from some of the deadliest ravages of the climate crisis, the new analysis reveals a U.S. food supply that is particularly vulnerable. Researchers found that the 'modern breadbaskets' that haven't yet explored climate adaptations will fare worse than parts of the world where extreme heat and changing weather has already forced farmers to adapt. 'Places in the Midwest that are really well suited for present day corn and soybean production just get hammered under a high warming future,' Hultgren said. 'You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future.' In a high-emissions model of the future where humans fail to meaningfully slow the march of global warming, corn production would dive by 40% in the U.S. grain belt, with soybeans suffering an even worse 50% decline. Wheat production would decline 30 to 40% in the same scenario. 'Because such a large fraction of agricultural production is concentrated in these wealthy-but-low-adaption regions, they dominate projections of global calorie production, generating much of the global food security risk we document,' the authors wrote, adding that farming in the U.S. is 'optimized for high average yields' in current climate conditions but is not robust enough to withstand a changing climate. 'This is basically like sending our agricultural profits overseas. We will be sending benefits to producers in Canada, Russia, China. Those are the winners, and we in the U.S. are the losers,' Hsiang said. 'The longer we wait to reduce emissions, the more money we lose.'
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Science
- Yahoo
Climate change cuts crop yields, even with adaptation efforts: Study
Climate-induced warming is jeopardizing the global food supply even as farmers take adaptive measures to stymie these effects, scientists are warning. In contrast with previous research suggesting warming actually could bolster food production, a new study, published in Nature on Wednesday, finds the opposite. For every additional degree Celsius the planet warms, its ability to produce food could decrease by 120 calories per person per day, or 4.4 percent of the current daily consumption, according to the study. 'If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast,' said senior author Solomon Hsiang, a professor of environmental social sciences at Stanford University, in a statement. Another serious side effect, Hsiang warned, could be price surges that infringe upon access to food for families across the world. U.S. agriculture is expected to suffer significant losses, particularly in the Midwest, the researchers noted. Lead author Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, warned that U.S. corn and soybean production could 'just get hammered under a high warming future.' 'You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future,' Hultgren said in a statement. Hsiang and Hultgren, together with more than a dozen scholars, worked over the past eight years to draw observations from more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries. They analyzed adaptation costs and yield for crops responsible for two-thirds of the planet's calories: wheat, rice, soybeans, barley and cassava. They found that previous studies failed to consider what adaptation measures might be realistic for farmers — assuming they would implement either 'perfect' adaptation protocols or none at all. The researchers estimated that adjustments farmers are making — such as switching crops, shifting planting and harvesting dates and altering fertilizer — could offset about a third of climate-related losses in 2100 amid rising emissions. But the rest of the losses, they stressed, would remain. 'Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture,' Hultgren said. Overall, the researchers found that yield losses could amount to about 41 percent in the wealthiest regions and 28 percent in the lowest income areas by 2100. There is a 50 percent chance that the world's rice yields could rise, because rice thrives on warm nights, while there is a 70 percent to 90 percent chance that the other staple crops will decline, according to the study. In the shorter-term, the authors estimated that climate change would bring down global crop production by about 8 percent by 2050, regardless of the rise or fall of emissions. This is because carbon dioxide emissions, they explained, stay in the atmosphere, trapping heat for the long haul. Going forward, the scientists said they are working with the United Nations Development Program to raise awareness about their findings among governments. They are also creating a system to determine which communities are most at risk of declines and could benefit from targeted support. 'Farmers know how to maintain the soil, invest in infrastructure, repair the barn,' Hsiang said. 'But if you're letting the climate depreciate, the rest of it is a waste. The land you leave to your kids will be good for something, but not for farming.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
