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Hindustan Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Balochistan's rare earths: Pakistan's gamble in the great power race
China and Pakistan are reportedly advancing plans to create a new regional bloc to replace the long-standing but functionally ineffective South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). A trilateral meeting in Kunming on June 19, 2025—between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh—marked the first step toward formalising this China-led initiative, with Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan also being courted to join. This raises a crucial question: Why is such an initiative being pursued now? A security personnel stands guard along a street near the site of a school bus bombing in the Khuzdar district of Balochistan province.(AFP/File) At the heart of this renewed regional alignment lies a game-changing revelation: Pakistan—particularly its restive province of Balochistan—is estimated to hold between $6 to $8 trillion worth of untapped mineral wealth, including strategically vital rare earth elements (REEs) like dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium. These elements are indispensable to the global green transition, as they are used in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, advanced defence technologies, and next-generation electronics. Balochistan's ophiolite-rich terrain, especially in the Muslim Bagh and Khuzdar regions, is believed to harbour significant deposits of heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), now in intense international demand. However, despite the immense resource potential, Pakistan's capacity to extract and process these minerals remains severely constrained. According to Abdul Bashir, chief geologist at Koh-e-Daleel Minerals, Pakistan currently lacks the sophisticated extraction technology, skilled expertise, and financial resources needed to process these critical minerals domestically. Without proper laboratory testing and beneficiation, the continued export of raw ore could result in the loss of billions in potential national revenue in the years to come. This gap between mineral abundance and extraction capability has triggered a fresh race among global powers to partner with Islamabad. At the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum held in Islamabad in April 2025, delegations from the US, China, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union expressed strong interest in large-scale mining partnerships. For Washington, this was not just about investment—it marked a strategic shift aimed at diversifying away from China, which currently controls about 90% of the global REE supply chain. Led by Eric Meyer from the US Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, the US delegation sought to position Pakistan as a new critical minerals partner. To accelerate this mineral pivot, Pakistan has signed lobbying contracts worth $450,000 a month with US firms linked to key figures from former President Trump's administration, such as his former bodyguard Keith Schiller, compliance chief George Sorial, and economic adviser Everett Eissenstat. Their mandate spans both economic and defence cooperation—promoting rare earth investments while also seeking military support. Meanwhile, China, with its $60 billion footprint in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is moving to consolidate its own position. For Beijing, Balochistan is a linchpin in its broader strategy to secure long-term access to critical minerals. However, the path to extraction is fraught with security risks. In 2024 alone, over 800 people were killed in nearly 500 militant attacks in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—the very provinces that hold most of Pakistan's high-value mineral deposits. To reassure investors, Pakistan's military has stepped in forcefully. Army chief and field marshal Asim Munir has declared that 'economic security is now a pillar of national security,' promising full-scale military protection for mining zones. But the growing militarisation of mineral development is not without social and political costs. In 2025, two controversial laws—the Balochistan Mines and Minerals Act and the Mines and Minerals Harmonization Act—were passed with limited public debate These laws effectively centralised control under the federal government through the creation of a Mineral Investment Facilitation Authority (MIFA) reporting to the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). This federal architecture undermines the country's 18th Amendment, which gives provinces authority over natural resources. In effect, Balochistan has been sidelined in the decision-making over its own resources. Equally troubling is the absence of any requirement for community consultation or profit-sharing with tribal populations, repeating the exclusionary patterns that have historically fuelled discontent in the region. The Reko Diq project is a prime example. Once stalled by legal battles over exploitative contracts, it is now being revived under Canadian firm Barrick Gold, with a projected output of $74 billion over 37 years. While it could reshape Pakistan's economy, serious concerns remain: Will Balochistan's impoverished residents benefit? And how will the water-intensive copper and lithium mining impact one of the world's most water-stressed regions? Some estimates warn extraction could consume up to 40% of local water supplies, worsening ecological strain and community tensions. Pakistan's mineral moment has clearly arrived—but whether it leads to equitable development or replicates extractive and exclusionary practices of the past will depend on policy choices made now. With external debt over $130 billion and the mining and sector contributing just 3.2% to GDP, Islamabad needs urgent foreign investment. But that capital must be aligned with transparent governance, environmental safeguards, and local benefit-sharing—not with attempts to recreate a regional stability institution that lacks legitimacy and inclusive representation. This article authored by Hriday Sarma, senior fellow, South Asia Democratic Forum, Brussels.
India.com
21-07-2025
- Politics
- India.com
China plans another conspiracy against India, makes move to disturb power balance in Asia, Modi govt is biggest challenge due to...
China trying to form a new alternative to SAARC? faces big obstacle as India... Not just at the borders, but India is giving a hard time to China at other fronts too. China is preparing to form a new group under its leadership to replace the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). However, India has emerged as the biggest hurdle in this effort of China. Analysts say that due to its economic strength and crisis management capability, India remains important for future regional cooperation. In such a situation, it is useless to imagine any group or alliance in South Asia without India. India had distanced itself from this group due to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and its dogmatism. Due to this, the meetings of SAARC are pending. What is China-Pakistan planning together? According to reports, discussions are in advanced stages between Islamabad and Beijing on a possible alternative to the China-led SAARC. Experts believe that China is using this as a geopolitical ploy to sideline India. Bangladeshi officials reportedly attended a meeting about the new grouping in Kunming, China on June 19, but Dhaka downplayed any political implications. Why is SAARC eclipsed? SAARC was established in 1985 by seven countries including India. Later in 2007, Afghanistan also joined this alliance. The member countries of SAARC are India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. But, SAARC has been largely inactive since 2016. India refused to attend the SAARC meeting due to the attack by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists in 2016. Since then its meetings are pending and the rest of the members have also backed out from it. Why India's neighbors will not join China's SAARC? China's bid to expand its influence in South Asia is based on strategic, economic and security interests. Through projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing not only seeks to boost regional connectivity but also secure energy routes and counter the rise of India, analysts say. But countries such as Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Nepal may be reluctant to join any new regional body that excludes India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited all SAARC leaders to his first swearing-in ceremony in 2014. He also attended the SAARC summit in Kathmandu that year, where he called for a motor-vehicle agreement to enhance connectivity. When Pakistan blocked the deal, India signed a similar agreement with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal the following year. India also pushed ahead with the South Asia Satellite Project in 2017, even after Pakistan had already backed out, which was intended to benefit all other SAARC countries.
India.com
12-07-2025
- Business
- India.com
Which policy of China has brought Bangladesh and Pakistan closer to Beijing and why India should be worried?
New Delhi: The growing closeness between China, Pakistan and Bangladesh has become a matter of concern for India. On June 19, representatives of the three countries met in Kunming, China on the alternative to SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). Pakistan is already in debt to China and China's influence is also increasing in Bangladesh. CDS General Anil Chauhan had recently expressed concern about this. What are Pakistan, Turkey and China working on? Turkey is also involved in this matter, which is providing military assistance to Pakistan and strengthening its defense ties with Bangladesh. In such a situation, India can get caught in a difficult diplomatic situation. Pakistan takes loans from China and buys weapons. Its economy is based on loans from IMF and China. More than 80% of Pakistan's military equipment comes from China. The World Bank estimates that it may take more than 40 years for Pakistan to repay its debt to China. China wants to take advantage of this situation to increase its dominance in South Asia. According to reports, China also supported Pakistan during Operation Sindoor in May 2025. Where does Bangladesh stand? Indian Army Deputy Chief Lieutenant General Rahul R Singh had alleged that China had given active military assistance to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. However, China has denied this allegation. Some people even saw this war as a test of Chinese weapons. China is also trying to defame companies supplying weapons to India. On the other hand, Bangladesh is also getting trapped in China's debt. The situation has worsened after the fall of the Hasina government in August 2024 following student protests. Muhammad Yunus' interim government is showing signs of aligning with China. Why should India be worried? China's growing influence on Pakistan and Bangladesh is worrying for India. China is interfering in Pakistan through infrastructure projects. Bangladesh is also taking loans from China and getting closer to Pakistan. The situation has worsened after the fall of Sheikh Hasina's government. A survey by Chatham House in June 2025 revealed that 75% of Bangladeshis prefer China, while only 11% prefer Indian. In the last few years, it has been propagated that India was supporting the Hasina government, which was infamous for its dictatorship. Anti-Hasina sentiments have also affected India. Muhammad Yunus' interim government is building good relations with Pakistan and military ties between the two countries are also growing.
Scroll.in
11-07-2025
- Business
- Scroll.in
Caught between India and China, will Beijing's ‘SAARC alternative' find support in South Asia?
China and Pakistan are reportedly trying to create a new regional bloc that can be an alternative to the increasingly dysfunctional South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). India is likely to be excluded from the initiative. In a meeting held in Kunming on June 19, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh apparently discussed the possibility of forming the new regional bloc to focus on economic integration, infrastructure development and regional connectivity. India's determination to isolate Pakistan and not engage with it has negatively impacted South Asian regionalism and the regional associations built around it, namely SAARC and South Asian Free Trade Association (SAFTA). Can the SAARC gap be filled by China? And would doing so serve China's strategic goals in the region? SAARC has not held a formal summit since 2014, in keeping with India's position of no engagement with Pakistan, a state it accuses of supporting terrorism. India's focus instead has been on strong bilateralism with its South Asian neighbours. So far, China has done the same by significantly building strong relations with South Asian countries. Pakistan-China 'all weather' ties China's favourite South Asian nation by far is Pakistan, with whom they have an 'all weather' relationship. Pakistan's geopolitical dalliance with the US and its willingness to play proxy to US interests, however, stops short of its loyalty to China. Even as India and China seek to improve their relations and deepen trade ties, the Sino-Pak relationship is a red light for India. Pakistan's perceived role in sponsoring terrorism against it deters India from building regional cooperation as it pressures its regional allies to shun Pakistan. The smaller South Asia nations, however, have their own way of hedging and leveraging regional powers, and each has its own agenda. Bangladesh courts China Bangladesh's relations with India took a nosedive after the recent regime change when India's known favourite Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted by a populist student led movement. It brought economist-technocrat Mohammad Yunus as interim head of government and Hasina took political asylum in India. Yunus is systematically improving relations with Pakistan which had adversarial relations with Bangladesh ever since the painful and bloody independence from Pakistan in 1971, which India facilitated with a significant military role. Moreover, Yunus also seeks to strengthen Bangladesh's relations with China. Unlike with India, Bangladesh's relations with China remain not just unchanged but deepening after the ouster of Hasina. China already supplies 72% of Bangladesh military equipment. Now, Bangladesh's 'Forces Goal 2030' can boost Chinese arms imports to a new level. The difference is that while the Hasina Government took care of Indian sensitivities, Yunus has no such interest. Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen said that the changed regime in Dhaka has not set back China's commitment to develop ties with Bangladesh. Nepal's equidistant Nepal, which houses the SAARC Secretariate, hedges its foreign policy in regional geopolitics. Sandwiched between India and China, Nepal has a deep dependence on India for trade and transit but it also wants China's development assistance. Nepal benefits from India's open-door (visa-less) entry for Nepali citizens. However, India also has the capability to arm-twist Nepal and has blockaded it in 1989 as well as 2015 and intervening not so subtly in its domestic politics. Nepal has, however, learnt to balance between India and China. Nepal is a participant in China's Belt and Road initiative but it also has development compacts with India. Nepal clearly favours non-alignment and non-entanglement, keeping away from the Sino-Indian rivalry. Uneasy Bhutan and the Maldives Bhutan remains uneasy about China's declared claims for Bhutanese territory on the Doklam Plateau. The Tibet Autonomous Region of China has a 470-kilometre border with Bhutan. India on its part has pressured Bhutan on occasion withdrawing subsidies on gas and kerosene (Bhutan is dependent on India for these) and imposing its goods and services tax on Bhutanese imports into India. These steps make Bhutan cautious about both India and China as the Bhutanese are sensitive about their identity and sovereignty. The Maldives has got into a debt-trap with China to the tune of US$ 3.2 billion. However, it also seeks and receives Chinese development and infrastructure assistance. Now, Maldives is also trying to navigate stronger ties with India. Sri Lanka's balancing game Sri Lanka has also sought to balance between India and China. It was an early reformer into neoliberal economic restructuring but started facing unprecedented political and economic crises since 2022 – due to a combination of factors that include the impact of Covid-19 on tourism, the Ukraine conflict, its earlier civil war with its Tamil minority, political corruption and international debt. This forced Sri Lanka to seek International Monetary Fund loans 16 times. Nearly 80% of Sri Lankan debt is from International Sovereign Bonds – not China. Moreover, the US has an interest in Sri Lanka as a strategic marine base. China plays up to Afghanistan China has sought to mediate to smoothen the turbulent relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan but has not met with much success. However, it does have an economic relationship with the Taliban government in Afghanistan since it envisages expanding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) northwards to Afghanistan and then the Central Asian Republics. At the same time, China has concerns about Taliban's links with radical Islamic groups especially the Uighurs present in Afghanistan. With these geopolitical tugs and pulls between regional powers would China manage to build a SAARC-like organisation? The prospect seems quite unlikely. China is interested in advancing its trade and exercising economic leverage. Getting into any new formal regional organisation that competes with India pushed SAARC — even if it is defunct does not serve its purpose currently. India and SAARC As far as India and SAARC is concerned, India needs to revive a regional body. If not SAARC, then SAFTA. While India is plagued by the terror issue allegedly emanating from Pakistan, it cannot allow regionalism trade and related issues to be held hostage on account of the zero-sum game with Pakistan. Moreover, putting pressure on smaller neighbours gives India the reputation of a regional bully – something that India implies about China of. India itself does not like the biggest bully, the US, pressuring South Asian countries, including India. It makes no sense for India, therefore, to do precisely what it criticises in others. Clearly, most of the small regional states would like a regional organisation to vent their views. After all, most other regions have a working regional organisation that gives them collective heft, like ASEAN, the African Union, the Economic Commission for Latin America and so on. At the same time, the smaller nations of South Asia neighbouring India and China would be unlikely to join a regional organisation that would alienate either of them. Both India and China understand that.
Business Recorder
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Why SAARC still matters
The leaders of South Asia must recognize that the true potential for real and meaningful progress lies not in abandoning SAARC but in revitalizing it. Any consideration for establishing a new regional bloc to offset SAARC, risks further fragmenting South Asia rather than uniting it. SAARC's stagnation stems from bilateral disputes and not structural flaws; replacing it with a bloc perceived as aligning with specific geopolitical interests could deepen divisions rather than bridge them. SAARC is not merely a diplomatic forum; it is a homegrown initiative rooted in shared geography, history, and cultural ties that bind South Asia together. SAARC frameworks such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), the SAARC Development Fund (SDF), and the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, are already in place but underutilized. Any new bloc would lack these established mechanisms, requiring years to replicate what SAARC has already built. For example, SAFTA potential to boost intra-regional trade beyond its current 5 percent remains untapped due to political barriers, not institutional inadequacies. The call to revive SAARC is not nostalgic but pragmatic. The region 2 billion people 50 percent of whom live in poverty need SAARC frameworks to prioritise development over politics. Instead of sidelining SAARC, South Asian leaders must separate bilateral disputes from regional agendas, as ASEAN has done; fully operationalize SAFTA, expand visa exemptions, and launch joint infrastructure projects; scale up student exchanges, cultural programs, and trade delegations to build trust. SAARC's foundations are solid; its tools are ready. What missing is the political courage to prioritize regional prosperity over narrow rivalries. Had SAARC remained active after its 18th Summit in 2014, it would have convened its 23rd Summit by 2024 and been preparing for a 24th, potentially providing an institutional mechanism to de-escalate tensions during the recent major conflict that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war. The recent escalation between India and Pakistan has severely jeopardised peace across South Asia, exacerbating regional instability in the absence of functional diplomatic platforms like SAARC. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has historically played a pivotal role in easing tensions among member states, prioritizing regional cooperation and the welfare of South Asian citizens. Notably, it has helped to mitigate conflicts, particularly between Pakistan and India, by facilitating dialogue and promoting peace. SAARC revival remains elusive. While member states maintain representatives at the Kathmandu Secretariat, the regional body remains largely inactive, raising questions about the political will for cooperation. SAARC has historically played a crucial role in promoting dialogue and cooperation among its member states. However, since the postponement of the 19th SAARC Summit scheduled for 2016 in Islamabad, Pakistan, a significant dialogue among member states has been absent. SAARC's strength has never been about resolving political disputes directly, but about building everyday trust through student exchanges, shared markets, and coordinated disaster responses. These mechanisms are vital for peace. The South Asian University, based in New Delhi, was a visionary initiative. But imagine if it had branches in every member country, allowing students to study in Pakistan's mountains, Sri Lanka's coastlines, Indian plains or Nepal's valleys. These shared classrooms would help dissolve stereotypes and build lifelong friendships. More exchange programmes would connect youth across borders, creating a generation shaped by shared experiences, not divided by old narratives. SAARC has already contributed to people's well-being. Health clinics supported by the SAARC Development Fund (SDF) have quietly saved lives in remote areas. Food banks helped in times of drought. But these successes remain limited in reach. With stronger political support, such initiatives could grow, perhaps into regional vaccine drives or emergency response teams that move quickly across borders during disasters. These actions reflect the true spirit of SAARC: regional unity to improve the lives of ordinary people. People visiting sacred sites across borders, craftswomen selling handmade textiles in neighbouring countries, or students pursuing education beyond their homeland are not grand political gestures, but simple human aspirations. Yet, current visa systems restrict such movements. The SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, which allows limited travel for businesspeople, issues around 200 visas per country each year, a drop in the ocean for a region of two billion. For trade, tourism, and trust to flourish, this number must grow. A common SAARC tourist visa, long discussed but never implemented, could transform mobility in the region. Despite political pauses, the foundation of SAARC is solid. Signed agreements on energy, connectivity, trade, and social development await fuller implementation. What is needed now is not new declarations, but action. Scholarships for students, simplified travel rules, affordable flights, and business-friendly border policies could bring immediate benefits. Each time a young person crosses a border to study, a trader expands market, or a family visits a sacred place, the dream of SAARC lives on. When SAARC was functioning, summits offered space for dialogue and cooling of tensions. For example, previous meetings helped ease situations after the Kargil conflict and during military stand-offs. Today, with SAARC not functioning at its full potential, countries lack the diplomatic cushions that once helped avoid escalation. And yet, there is hope. Indian External Affairs Minister recently said that 'SAARC is not off the table.' Pakistan, Bangladesh and other member countries have also expressed support for its revival. Leaders from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Afghanistan have long stood behind the vision of SAARC. All maintain their diplomatic presence at the SAARC Secretariat in Kathmandu. The challenge is not about structure; it is about political will. SAARC is not a platform that can be replaced or replicated. It is built on a natural alliance, formed not just by geography, but by shared history, culture, and aspirations. The countries of South Asia are not distant partners; they are neighbours bound by centuries of interaction, migration, and exchange. From language and cuisine to festivals and philosophies, the region's common threads run deep. No external alliance or global forum can substitute the unique foundation upon which SAARC stands. Its strength lies in the fact that it is a homegrown initiative, designed by South Asians, for South Asians, to address the region distinct challenges and unlock its collective potential. People of the region are not asking for the impossible. They want peace, opportunity, and the freedom to travel, learn, and work across borders. It's time for SAARC to be reactivated, not just for governments but for the people it was meant to serve. As the famous saying goes, 'Rivers don't stop at borders. Why must we?' When SAARC works as envisioned, it responds not with politics, but with a common vision, thriving marketplaces, and the quiet truth that the futures of South Asian people flow together. (The writer is the Secretary General of SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry) Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
