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Business Insider
2 days ago
- Business Insider
China's catastrophic South China Sea crash shows how dangerous high-risk moves at sea can be
China's ship collision in the South China Sea is the result of dangerous behavior at sea, experts said. High-risk maneuvers are becoming more common in the strategic waterway. The latest incident stood out because of the involvement of a Chinese destroyer. The collision of two Chinese vessels in the South China Sea this week was dramatic — and, according to China watchers, predictable. For years, China's military, coast guard, and maritime militia have been accused of using aggressive tactics such as close-range intercepts, blocking runs, chases, and water cannon harassment to assert control over contested waters. These maneuvers make accidents like Monday's crash, which saw a destroyer crush a coast guard cutter, much more likely. "It is part of China's standard operating procedure to intentionally engage in unsafe behavior and create risks of collision at sea and in the air," said Gregory Poling, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank and director of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative there. A disastrous collision On Monday, the Philippine Coast Guard shared footage of China Coast Guard vessel 3104 in hot pursuit of the Philippine patrol ship BRP Suluan at high speeds while spraying a water cannon about 11 nautical miles east of the contested Scarborough Shoal. As the cutter closed in on the BRP Suluan, a larger Chinese Navy destroyer crossed the bow of the cutter, which, unable to maneuver out of the way, violently slammed into the warship. The video showed both Chinese vessels afterward with significant hull damage, though only the coast guard ship was effectively crippled. Before the crash, the destroyer and cutter appeared to criss-cross in the water repeatedly in their pursuit of the Philippine vessel. Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela said that the Chinese coast guard vessel "performed a risky maneuver," leading to the impact. He said the damage to the Chinese cutter's forecastle rendered it unseaworthy. In the aftermath, China watchers said the incident was caused by reckless Chinese actions in the South China Sea, pointing to a pattern of behavior that raises the risk of collisions. China has been repeatedly accused of violating the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea. "When the operational culture of a navy/coast guard is to habitually violate COLREGS and norms of professionalism, this is the tragic result," Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, wrote of Monday's collision on social media. "Normally, such an incident would lead to reassessments of operational safety to ensure such accidents do not happen again," he said, adding that he doesn't expect that to happen here. Increasingly dangerous, high-risk maneuvers at sea Water cannon blasts. Close-quarters tailing. High-speed chases and cut-offs. As China has sought to enforce its contested claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea, which are considered to be inconsistent with international law, the Philippines has documented repeated incidents of Chinese coast guard ships harassing vessels. Some confrontations have escalated to the point of injuries among Philippine crews. Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at Defense Priorities and the director of the China Initiative at Brown University's Watson Institute, told Business Insider that these risky activities have seemed to increase in the last decade, which "partly reflects the fact that China has more and more maritime and aerial might to flaunt in these situations." Some of these actions — such as water cannon blasts or unsafe maneuvers — are known as "grey zone" tactics: operations that assert control without crossing the threshold into open conflict. But because they don't follow established maritime safety protocols, experts say, they raise the likelihood of accidents and miscalculations. "Water cannons, dangerous ramming maneuvers, and other unsafe actions have become the new normal," said Christopher Sharman, a retired US Navy captain and the director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College, who spoke to Business Insider in his own capacity. Why this clash stands out This week's severe crash reflects an escalation, China watchers said, most notably because it involved a Type 052D destroyer, a multi-role guided-missile ship, rather than the usual suspects. In previous incidents, China has often relied solely on its coast guard, or even the maritime militia masquerading as a fishing fleet, for assertive acts in the South China Sea, leaving naval forces on standby. Under Chinese law, the coast guard has broad authority to enforce maritime authority and sovereignty. Keeping warships out of physical contact lowers the chance of miscalculation that could escalate quickly. The Chinese Navy destroyer's involvement in this clash, which saw the warship continue its pursuit of the smaller Philippine ship even after it crushed the Coast Guard vessel, stands out. This is a rarer and riskier choice operationally that signals the contests in the South China Sea, long considered a flash point, are becoming more dangerous. Sharman said its "deployment appears to be a calculated political decision from Beijing," one potentially aimed at punishing Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos after his comments last week that Manila would be drawn into any conflict involving Taiwan due to its proximity to the island and the substantial number of Philippine workers there. Either way, the warship's direct involvement suggests China may now be willing to risk high-value assets in front-line harassment roles. Had the Chinese destroyer smashed into the Philippine vessel instead of the Chinese coast guard cutter, this incident could have kicked off a major conflict, Goldstein said. The Philippines is an important US ally and defense partner. It could have also resulted in a significant loss of life. It's unclear whether any Chinese coast guard personnel were injured or killed. In the video, a few sailors could be seen on the bow of the 3104 just before it hit the destroyer. Tarriela said the Philippine crew offered to assist in the search and rescue. China did not respond. China has made no official statement on the collision, the state of its vessels, or whether there were any casualties. The Chinese embassy in the US referred Business Insider to a recent foreign ministry press briefing, during which the ministry spokesman accused the Philippines of engaging in "hazardous maneuvers," such as "high-speed charges and sharp turns toward the bows of Chinese ships, leading to a complex and tense situation." What's next The US and its allies have documented hundreds of unsafe Chinese actions in the air and at sea, from chases to clashes to unsafe intercepts, over the years. One particularly notable incident at sea occurred in 2018 and involved the US Navy. That year, a Chinese navy destroyer came dangerously close to colliding with a US Navy warship, coming within just 45 yards of the American ship after aggressively closing with it in the South China Sea. The US said at that time that China was engaging in "increasingly aggressive maneuvers." Now, questions remain on whether China will reassess its tactics to avoid future clashes. Some China watchers note that because so many of China's efforts have been viewed as successful within Beijing, China may double down on its current strategy and continue its pressure campaign. Following the crash on Monday, a Chinese fighter jet engaged in what the Philippines characterized as "dangerous" moves near one of its aircraft. "If China doesn't change its behavior," Poling said, "one of the accidents will cause a fatality, which could spark military escalation that no side wants."
CNA
30-07-2025
- Politics
- CNA
CNA938 Rewind - Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire: Rare diplomatic success
Experts say the ceasefire agreement brokered in Putrajaya was a win for Malaysia premier Anwar Ibrahim and ASEAN. With clashes reportedly erupting early Tuesday morning, however, observation teams are urgently needed on the ground. Hairianto Diman and Susan Ng find out more from Dr Rahman Yaacob, Research Fellow, Southeast Asia Program, Lowy Institute.
Express Tribune
07-07-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Rubio to attend ASEAN meeting in first visit to Asia
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio testifies at a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on US President Donald Trump's State Department budget request for the Department of State, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 21, 2025. Photo: Reuters US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will make his first visit to Asia later this week, attending a meeting of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Malaysia as part of efforts to bolster US ties in the Indo-Pacific, the State Department announced on Monday. Rubio will travel from July 8 to 12 and participate in meetings in Kuala Lumpur with ASEAN's 10 foreign ministers. He is also scheduled to meet with senior officials from the Malaysian government, the statement said. The trip comes as the Trump administration seeks to reassure regional partners unsettled by US tariffs and its "America First" approach. The visit highlights Washington's renewed focus on the Indo-Pacific, which the administration has declared a strategic priority over conflict zones in the Middle East and Europe. "Top topics that he's going to want to hit, obviously, are to reaffirm our commitment to East Asia, to ASEAN, to the Indo-Pacific," a senior State Department official told reporters. More Read: Trump threatens BRICS with 10% tariffs for 'anti-American policies' "A key message the secretary likes to deliver is that we're committed and we prioritize it because it is in America's interests — it promotes American prosperity and security." The official said trade would likely feature in Rubio's discussions, echoing White House and US Trade Representative messaging on the need to rebalance trade relationships. ASEAN countries have expressed concern over the Trump administration's tariff policies and its commitment to deeper diplomatic and economic ties in the region. "There is a hunger to be reassured that the US actually views the Indo-Pacific as the primary theater of U.S. interests, key to US national security," said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Trade tensions and bricks warning On Sunday, President Trump said the US was close to finalizing several trade agreements and would notify countries by July 9 of higher tariff rates, to take effect on August 1. He also issued a warning to BRICS nations meeting in Brazil, threatening a 10% tariff on countries aligning with 'anti-American' policies. Read More: India in BRICS: facilitator or spoiler? The BRICS bloc includes ASEAN member Indonesia, as well as China and India. Last week, Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, a key ASEAN member, and said a deal with India could follow. However, he cast doubt on a potential agreement with Japan, despite its role as a top Indo-Pacific ally and major US trade partner. Absent visits and diplomatic push Rubio has yet to visit Japan or South Korea — the United States' key allies in Northeast Asia — since assuming office in January, despite the administration's stated Indo-Pacific focus and concerns over China's growing influence. South Korean presidential security adviser Wi Sung-lac arrived in Washington on Sunday for trade and defense talks. His office said he would remain in the US until Tuesday, aiming to meet with Rubio and discuss the possibility of a summit between President Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, who took office last month.
The Advertiser
07-07-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Rubio to make first visit to Indo-Pacific region
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Malaysia later this week to attend a meeting of Southeast Asian Nations in his first visit to the Indo-Pacific region as America's top diplomat. Rubio will travel July 8-12 and will take part in meetings in Kuala Lumpur with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose foreign ministers are gathering there, the State Department said. Rubio will seek to firm up US relationships with partners and allies in the region, who have been unnerved by President Donald Trump's global tariff offensive. The trip is part of a renewed US focus on the Indo-Pacific and represents an effort by the Trump administration to look beyond the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe that have so far consumed much of its attention. Last week, Rubio hosted Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and counterparts from India and Japan. They announced a joint initiative to ensure the supply of critical minerals, a vital sector for high-tech applications dominated by Washington's main strategic rival, China. Trump also announced that he reached a trade agreement with an important Southeast Asian partner and ASEAN member Vietnam and could reach one with India, but cast doubt on a possible deal with Japan, Washington's main Indo-Pacific ally and a major importer and investor in the United States. Rubio has yet to visit Japan or neighbouring South Korea, the other major US ally in north-east Asia, since taking office in January, even though Washington sees the Indo-Pacific as its main strategic priority given the perceived threat posed by China. ASEAN countries have been nervous about Trump's tariff offensive and have questioned the willingness of his "America First" administration to fully engage diplomatically and economically with the region. "There is a hunger to be reassured that the US actually views the Indo-Pacific as the primary theatre of US interests, key to US national security," said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Washington's Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Other ASEAN countries may be encouraged by Vietnam's deal with Trump. "This should smooth the way for continued pragmatic security engagement between the US and Vietnam, and hopefully provide a pathway for others in Southeast Asia to get similar deals without having to give up much," Poling said. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Malaysia later this week to attend a meeting of Southeast Asian Nations in his first visit to the Indo-Pacific region as America's top diplomat. Rubio will travel July 8-12 and will take part in meetings in Kuala Lumpur with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose foreign ministers are gathering there, the State Department said. Rubio will seek to firm up US relationships with partners and allies in the region, who have been unnerved by President Donald Trump's global tariff offensive. The trip is part of a renewed US focus on the Indo-Pacific and represents an effort by the Trump administration to look beyond the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe that have so far consumed much of its attention. Last week, Rubio hosted Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and counterparts from India and Japan. They announced a joint initiative to ensure the supply of critical minerals, a vital sector for high-tech applications dominated by Washington's main strategic rival, China. Trump also announced that he reached a trade agreement with an important Southeast Asian partner and ASEAN member Vietnam and could reach one with India, but cast doubt on a possible deal with Japan, Washington's main Indo-Pacific ally and a major importer and investor in the United States. Rubio has yet to visit Japan or neighbouring South Korea, the other major US ally in north-east Asia, since taking office in January, even though Washington sees the Indo-Pacific as its main strategic priority given the perceived threat posed by China. ASEAN countries have been nervous about Trump's tariff offensive and have questioned the willingness of his "America First" administration to fully engage diplomatically and economically with the region. "There is a hunger to be reassured that the US actually views the Indo-Pacific as the primary theatre of US interests, key to US national security," said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Washington's Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Other ASEAN countries may be encouraged by Vietnam's deal with Trump. "This should smooth the way for continued pragmatic security engagement between the US and Vietnam, and hopefully provide a pathway for others in Southeast Asia to get similar deals without having to give up much," Poling said. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Malaysia later this week to attend a meeting of Southeast Asian Nations in his first visit to the Indo-Pacific region as America's top diplomat. Rubio will travel July 8-12 and will take part in meetings in Kuala Lumpur with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose foreign ministers are gathering there, the State Department said. Rubio will seek to firm up US relationships with partners and allies in the region, who have been unnerved by President Donald Trump's global tariff offensive. The trip is part of a renewed US focus on the Indo-Pacific and represents an effort by the Trump administration to look beyond the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe that have so far consumed much of its attention. Last week, Rubio hosted Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and counterparts from India and Japan. They announced a joint initiative to ensure the supply of critical minerals, a vital sector for high-tech applications dominated by Washington's main strategic rival, China. Trump also announced that he reached a trade agreement with an important Southeast Asian partner and ASEAN member Vietnam and could reach one with India, but cast doubt on a possible deal with Japan, Washington's main Indo-Pacific ally and a major importer and investor in the United States. Rubio has yet to visit Japan or neighbouring South Korea, the other major US ally in north-east Asia, since taking office in January, even though Washington sees the Indo-Pacific as its main strategic priority given the perceived threat posed by China. ASEAN countries have been nervous about Trump's tariff offensive and have questioned the willingness of his "America First" administration to fully engage diplomatically and economically with the region. "There is a hunger to be reassured that the US actually views the Indo-Pacific as the primary theatre of US interests, key to US national security," said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Washington's Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Other ASEAN countries may be encouraged by Vietnam's deal with Trump. "This should smooth the way for continued pragmatic security engagement between the US and Vietnam, and hopefully provide a pathway for others in Southeast Asia to get similar deals without having to give up much," Poling said. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Malaysia later this week to attend a meeting of Southeast Asian Nations in his first visit to the Indo-Pacific region as America's top diplomat. Rubio will travel July 8-12 and will take part in meetings in Kuala Lumpur with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose foreign ministers are gathering there, the State Department said. Rubio will seek to firm up US relationships with partners and allies in the region, who have been unnerved by President Donald Trump's global tariff offensive. The trip is part of a renewed US focus on the Indo-Pacific and represents an effort by the Trump administration to look beyond the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe that have so far consumed much of its attention. Last week, Rubio hosted Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and counterparts from India and Japan. They announced a joint initiative to ensure the supply of critical minerals, a vital sector for high-tech applications dominated by Washington's main strategic rival, China. Trump also announced that he reached a trade agreement with an important Southeast Asian partner and ASEAN member Vietnam and could reach one with India, but cast doubt on a possible deal with Japan, Washington's main Indo-Pacific ally and a major importer and investor in the United States. Rubio has yet to visit Japan or neighbouring South Korea, the other major US ally in north-east Asia, since taking office in January, even though Washington sees the Indo-Pacific as its main strategic priority given the perceived threat posed by China. ASEAN countries have been nervous about Trump's tariff offensive and have questioned the willingness of his "America First" administration to fully engage diplomatically and economically with the region. "There is a hunger to be reassured that the US actually views the Indo-Pacific as the primary theatre of US interests, key to US national security," said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Washington's Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Other ASEAN countries may be encouraged by Vietnam's deal with Trump. "This should smooth the way for continued pragmatic security engagement between the US and Vietnam, and hopefully provide a pathway for others in Southeast Asia to get similar deals without having to give up much," Poling said.
Nikkei Asia
06-07-2025
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
Singapore must engage U.S. and China while keeping neighbors onside
Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong shake hands at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 24. © Reuters Rahman Yaacob is a research fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute. Lawrence Wong has inherited a nation at a crossroads. As Singapore's new prime minister, his government must be careful and deliberate in navigating a complex series of strategic issues. One key challenge will be balancing Singapore's relationship with superpowers China and the U.S., while keeping Malay-Muslim majority neighbors Malaysia and Indonesia onside -- not an easy task given the demographic differences between the countries.
