Latest news with #SouthernAnnularMode
Sydney Morning Herald
3 days ago
- Climate
- Sydney Morning Herald
What winter has in store for Sydney and NSW
Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast of NSW, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that had killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other species with gills. The South Australian government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light winds and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. In an update on Thursday, the SA government said it hoped recent strong winds and ocean swells would break up the algal bloom. Internationally, King said the northern spring had brought wildfires in Scotland, while Spain was unusually wet. In Switzerland last week, a thawing glacier collapsed onto the village below and razed the forest. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Winter is here The weather bureau published its latest seasonal outlook for winter on Thursday. For June-August, the bureau sees a greater than 80 per cent chance of above-average maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Australia. In south-western and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north, the chances of unusually high maximum temperatures are above 70 per cent. In southern, eastern and northern parts of Australia, the chances of unusually high minimum temperatures exceed 70 per cent. The bureau also found a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for much of mainland Australia, but even odds on whether it was wetter, drier or the same as usual for much of south-west Western Australia and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north. This was driven in part by an expectation that the Indian Ocean Dipole would switch to a negative phase by the end of winter. Bushfires and mould The Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services warns of an extra bushfire risk, especially in Victoria and South Australia. Mould is another risk for those in regions expecting heat and rain. Goran Surbevski at air-conditioning company Alliance Climate Control recommended running air-conditioning in 'dry mode', which sucks moisture out of the air. 'It's especially useful during those mild, rainy days when full heating isn't needed, but the air still feels damp,' Surbevski said. Standalone dehumidifiers can do the same thing, and insulation can prevent water entering. Patchy snow In the Australian Alps, businesses dependent on snow tourism fear they are in for another bad year. Loading Jindabyne business owner Olivier Kapetanakos said the past few years were like living through 'a climate change battle' from bushfires to floods as well as COVID-19. 'Now we've got what looks like to be the third bad winter snow season coming through,' he said. 'Businesses relying on tourism have had a pretty hard trot.' Kapetanakos, president of the Jindabyne Chamber of Commerce, part owner of a tourism real estate business and operator of farmstay provider Avonside Alpine Estate, said the snow season had shrunk from a 14-16 week season to a 12-week season in the past decade, and he expected that in future it could last just eight weeks. Snowy Monaro Regional Council had a gross regional product of $1.96 billion in 2024-25. Of that, $798.8 million was attributable to tourism. Kapetanakos said there were efforts to make tourism a year-round industry for the Snowy Mountains, by attracting hikers to a new multi-day walk and mountain bikers in the warmer months. Yet the most concentrated economic activity was the snow season because it was such an expensive time of year. King said climate change was a big threat to the ski industry in Australia in the long term, but the seasonal outlook could not accurately predict snow conditions in such a small area. Also, temperature would affect whether precipitation fell as snow or rain. 'In any given winter you might get lucky and just happen to have a good dump of snow at a good time,' King said.
The Age
3 days ago
- Climate
- The Age
What winter has in store for Sydney and NSW
Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast of NSW, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that had killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other species with gills. The South Australian government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light winds and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. In an update on Thursday, the SA government said it hoped recent strong winds and ocean swells would break up the algal bloom. Internationally, King said the northern spring had brought wildfires in Scotland, while Spain was unusually wet. In Switzerland last week, a thawing glacier collapsed onto the village below and razed the forest. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Winter is here The weather bureau published its latest seasonal outlook for winter on Thursday. For June-August, the bureau sees a greater than 80 per cent chance of above-average maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Australia. In south-western and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north, the chances of unusually high maximum temperatures are above 70 per cent. In southern, eastern and northern parts of Australia, the chances of unusually high minimum temperatures exceed 70 per cent. The bureau also found a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for much of mainland Australia, but even odds on whether it was wetter, drier or the same as usual for much of south-west Western Australia and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north. This was driven in part by an expectation that the Indian Ocean Dipole would switch to a negative phase by the end of winter. Bushfires and mould The Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services warns of an extra bushfire risk, especially in Victoria and South Australia. Mould is another risk for those in regions expecting heat and rain. Goran Surbevski at air-conditioning company Alliance Climate Control recommended running air-conditioning in 'dry mode', which sucks moisture out of the air. 'It's especially useful during those mild, rainy days when full heating isn't needed, but the air still feels damp,' Surbevski said. Standalone dehumidifiers can do the same thing, and insulation can prevent water entering. Patchy snow In the Australian Alps, businesses dependent on snow tourism fear they are in for another bad year. Loading Jindabyne business owner Olivier Kapetanakos said the past few years were like living through 'a climate change battle' from bushfires to floods as well as COVID-19. 'Now we've got what looks like to be the third bad winter snow season coming through,' he said. 'Businesses relying on tourism have had a pretty hard trot.' Kapetanakos, president of the Jindabyne Chamber of Commerce, part owner of a tourism real estate business and operator of farmstay provider Avonside Alpine Estate, said the snow season had shrunk from a 14-16 week season to a 12-week season in the past decade, and he expected that in future it could last just eight weeks. Snowy Monaro Regional Council had a gross regional product of $1.96 billion in 2024-25. Of that, $798.8 million was attributable to tourism. Kapetanakos said there were efforts to make tourism a year-round industry for the Snowy Mountains, by attracting hikers to a new multi-day walk and mountain bikers in the warmer months. Yet the most concentrated economic activity was the snow season because it was such an expensive time of year. King said climate change was a big threat to the ski industry in Australia in the long term, but the seasonal outlook could not accurately predict snow conditions in such a small area. Also, temperature would affect whether precipitation fell as snow or rain. 'In any given winter you might get lucky and just happen to have a good dump of snow at a good time,' King said.
The Age
4 days ago
- Climate
- The Age
‘Seemingly endless fire season' predicted for Victoria this winter
Climate scientist David Karoly said there had been long-term declines in average snow cover and depth, and the length of the snow season, over the past 30 years. 'To get the big snow dumps ... that build the snow base and allow it to survive rainfall … is associated with cold temperatures that flow from the Antarctic region. And unfortunately this season, and for many of the past few winters, there's been much above average temperatures.' Abnormally warm and dry conditions have been repeated in South Australia, with communities in the state's southern coastal areas, and significant portions of western, south-western and south-eastern Victoria, warned to prepare for unseasonable bushfire risks. Loading Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Caitlin Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other gilled species. The SA government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light wind and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture. Closer to home, Country Fire Authority Acting Chief Officer Garry Cook said bushfires remained a real risk despite the onset of winter. 'The lack of rainfall and dry vegetation across many parts of the state is a great concern for firefighters this time of the year, and we're asking people to remain vigilant and not become complacent just because we're not in summer any more,' he said. 'While cooler days are arriving, the landscape remains dry enough to allow fires to start and spread quickly if a burn-off gets out of control, especially when coupled with strong winds.' Cropping and grassland areas would be grazed out or mostly bare, according to the Australian and New Zealand council for fire and emergency services, but forested areas would be at increased risk of fires. Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the ongoing drought across parts of Victoria and SA was causing 'a seemingly endless 2025 fire season'. 'Tasmania is also likely to see organic soils smouldering throughout winter due to the state's ongoing deep soil dryness,' he said.
Sydney Morning Herald
4 days ago
- Climate
- Sydney Morning Herald
‘Seemingly endless fire season' predicted for Victoria this winter
Climate scientist David Karoly said there had been long-term declines in average snow cover and depth, and the length of the snow season, over the past 30 years. 'To get the big snow dumps ... that build the snow base and allow it to survive rainfall … is associated with cold temperatures that flow from the Antarctic region. And unfortunately this season, and for many of the past few winters, there's been much above average temperatures.' Abnormally warm and dry conditions have been repeated in South Australia, with communities in the state's southern coastal areas, and significant portions of western, south-western and south-eastern Victoria, warned to prepare for unseasonable bushfire risks. Loading Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Caitlin Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other gilled species. The SA government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light wind and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture. Closer to home, Country Fire Authority Acting Chief Officer Garry Cook said bushfires remained a real risk despite the onset of winter. 'The lack of rainfall and dry vegetation across many parts of the state is a great concern for firefighters this time of the year, and we're asking people to remain vigilant and not become complacent just because we're not in summer any more,' he said. 'While cooler days are arriving, the landscape remains dry enough to allow fires to start and spread quickly if a burn-off gets out of control, especially when coupled with strong winds.' Cropping and grassland areas would be grazed out or mostly bare, according to the Australian and New Zealand council for fire and emergency services, but forested areas would be at increased risk of fires. Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the ongoing drought across parts of Victoria and SA was causing 'a seemingly endless 2025 fire season'. 'Tasmania is also likely to see organic soils smouldering throughout winter due to the state's ongoing deep soil dryness,' he said.
Sydney Morning Herald
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Sydney Morning Herald
The intensifying climate driver behind the coastal deluges and inland drought
From Queensland to the South Coast of NSW, rainfall has been unusually high. That started with Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred in March, which a rapid attribution study by ClimaMeter found was slower and wetter because of climate change. Climate scientists expect fewer cyclones in Australia as the planet heats up, but warn they are moving further south and carrying more rain. This week the higher rainfall has been evident with floods on the Mid North Coast of NSW. McDowell said Taree on the Mid North Coast had recorded its highest ever two-day rainfall on record in the two days to 9am Wednesday – about 400 millimetres or about a third of its typical annual rainfall. East Coast Lows – which can be influenced by a positive SAM – have also caused widespread coastal erosion, with beaches on the Central Coast still denuded of sand after high swells in April. Climate change is increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold by about 7 percentage points of humidity for every degree of warming. Already, global humidity has increased 7 percentage points over the past few decades alongside one degree of warming. Scientia Professor Matthew England, a climate expert at the University of NSW, said the marine heatwave in the oceans around Australia would also contribute to the intensity of rainfall. 'We know that onshore winds pick up moisture from the ocean, and that warmer oceans drive increased atmospheric moisture and humidity, so we can expect that as our oceans warm, this effect will be enhanced,' England said. Loading 'The temperatures in the Tasman Sea have been well above average for the past few years, so some of this increased coastal rainfall could be due to those warmer ocean temperatures.' At the same time, McDowell also said the showers and rain-bearing systems blowing in from the east don't make it very far across the land mass, meaning it is abnormally dry inland. 'If you look at April, or the whole of March and April, you've got parts of Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Tasmania that have the lowest rainfall on record, so it's pretty unusual,' McDowell said. 'In the past 30 years or so, we've seen [the Southern Annular Mode in positive] becoming more frequent … and there's potential that this is a climate change signal.' England said the recent trends for a positive SAM 'have been driven by both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone depletion'. 'Both act to alter atmospheric pressure fields in such a way that the jet stream intensifies and shifts poleward, making the SAM more positive,' England said. (The jet stream is a band of powerful high-altitude winds that encircle the globe). 'While the ozone hole is recovering, we expect ongoing positive trends in the SAM due to increasing greenhouse gases.' Dr Chiara Holgate in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century at the Australian National University, said Australia had a highly variable climate, and without an attribution analysis, it was impossible to say that climate change was the cause of any particular drought or floods. At the same time, Holgate said people currently experiencing drought should expect more of it. 'The area of southern Australia that is at the moment drought-affected pretty closely resembles the parts of Australia that are projected to experience more drought in the future with climate change,' Holgate said. 'Unless emissions are cut drastically, the current science is saying that this part of Australia is expected to see more frequent and longer droughts in the future.' Heading into winter, rain could be on the way. The weather bureau's long-term outlook suggests the east coast and inland Australia have a strong likelihood of higher rainfall than usual, especially in August. McDowell said the main reason was that global climate models, including the one used by BoM, predicted the Indian Ocean Dipole to become negative in winter, meaning more rainfall was likely for inland Australia. The uncertainties of the long-range outlook meant it should be taken with 'a pinch of salt', he added.
