What winter has in store for Sydney and NSW

Sydney Morning Herald

2 days ago

Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast of NSW, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break.
All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that had killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania.
In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other species with gills.
The South Australian government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light winds and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula.
In an update on Thursday, the SA government said it hoped recent strong winds and ocean swells would break up the algal bloom.
Internationally, King said the northern spring had brought wildfires in Scotland, while Spain was unusually wet. In Switzerland last week, a thawing glacier collapsed onto the village below and razed the forest.
King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.
Winter is here
The weather bureau published its latest seasonal outlook for winter on Thursday.
For June-August, the bureau sees a greater than 80 per cent chance of above-average maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Australia.
In south-western and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north, the chances of unusually high maximum temperatures are above 70 per cent.
In southern, eastern and northern parts of Australia, the chances of unusually high minimum temperatures exceed 70 per cent.
The bureau also found a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for much of mainland Australia, but even odds on whether it was wetter, drier or the same as usual for much of south-west Western Australia and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north. This was driven in part by an expectation that the Indian Ocean Dipole would switch to a negative phase by the end of winter.
Bushfires and mould
The Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services warns of an extra bushfire risk, especially in Victoria and South Australia.
Mould is another risk for those in regions expecting heat and rain. Goran Surbevski at air-conditioning company Alliance Climate Control recommended running air-conditioning in 'dry mode', which sucks moisture out of the air.
'It's especially useful during those mild, rainy days when full heating isn't needed, but the air still feels damp,' Surbevski said.
Standalone dehumidifiers can do the same thing, and insulation can prevent water entering.
Patchy snow
In the Australian Alps, businesses dependent on snow tourism fear they are in for another bad year.
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Jindabyne business owner Olivier Kapetanakos said the past few years were like living through 'a climate change battle' from bushfires to floods as well as COVID-19.
'Now we've got what looks like to be the third bad winter snow season coming through,' he said. 'Businesses relying on tourism have had a pretty hard trot.'
Kapetanakos, president of the Jindabyne Chamber of Commerce, part owner of a tourism real estate business and operator of farmstay provider Avonside Alpine Estate, said the snow season had shrunk from a 14-16 week season to a 12-week season in the past decade, and he expected that in future it could last just eight weeks.
Snowy Monaro Regional Council had a gross regional product of $1.96 billion in 2024-25. Of that, $798.8 million was attributable to tourism.
Kapetanakos said there were efforts to make tourism a year-round industry for the Snowy Mountains, by attracting hikers to a new multi-day walk and mountain bikers in the warmer months. Yet the most concentrated economic activity was the snow season because it was such an expensive time of year.
King said climate change was a big threat to the ski industry in Australia in the long term, but the seasonal outlook could not accurately predict snow conditions in such a small area. Also, temperature would affect whether precipitation fell as snow or rain.
'In any given winter you might get lucky and just happen to have a good dump of snow at a good time,' King said.