Latest news with #St.LouisFed
CNBC
12 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: Expect the Fed to be on hold until September
Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the May jobs report, state of the economy, impact on the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.
Mint
24-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Americans aren't buying Trump's economic agenda. The numbers prove it.
Like President Joe Biden before him, President Donald Trump is trying to convince a dubious American public that the economy is strong and inflation isn't a worry. 'The economy is booming," President Donald Trump declared this week. 'The stock market is higher than when I came into office (and) there's no inflation." Gasoline prices, the president said, are lower than they were on Inauguration Day. Grocery bills are going down, too. Americans aren't feeling the president's optimism. And there are plenty of reasons why. Gas is about 8 cents a gallon higher since he took the oath of office on Jan. 20, based on AAA price estimates. The St. Louis Fed's index of grocery prices is higher. And the last measure of inflation from the Commerce Department showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3% with prices rising faster in April than in March. Bank of America data published on Thursday noted that consumer spending patterns moderated last month, and are showing signs of slowing more in the summer months. Spending is still positive for the year, though. 'Given that economic uncertainty remains very high amid the imposition of tariffs and corresponding price increases, we continue to keep a close eye on how the consumer is reacting," the report said. Real-time data from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), shows the number of travelers moving through domestic airports this month is down about 2% from the first three weeks in April, one of the biggest monthly declines in years. 'The 5% drop in passenger numbers from their peak in December already is bigger than the 4% decline in February 2001 and the 1% dip in October 2007, the onset of the 2001 and 2007-to-09 recessions," noted Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Broader measures of consumer sentiment are also souring. The University of Michigan's benchmark survey fell to its second-lowest reading on record this month. Year-ahead inflation expectations, which are published in tandem, surged to 7.3%, the highest since November 1981. That isn't the kind of reading anyone wants for an economy powered by consumer spending and still clouded by tariff and inflation uncertainty. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool, a real-time tracker of U.S. growth, suggests a current-quarter advance of 2.4%. But a surprise first-quarter economic contraction, along with revisions over the coming weeks, probably will deliver little growth over this year's first half. Summertime prospects are similarly cautious. GasBuddy, a consumer advocacy network, said fewer Americans are planning holiday road trips this year, even with what could to be the cheapest fuel prices since 2021. 'While we're forecasting the lowest summer gas prices in years, economic jitters are slightly dampening optimism," said Patrick de Haan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis. 'Rather than canceling plans, travelers are becoming more strategic with their spending." The housing market also isn't providing the kind of spark needed to ignite consumer spending. Existing home sales slumped to the slowest pace since 2009 last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Rising mortgage rates could gum up the housing market while slowing refinancings and keeping home-equity loan opportunities in check. Trump cleared a massive hurdle on Thursday in his effort to define his broader economic agenda when the House approved his 'one big, beautiful" tax-and-spending bill. But while the president can compel recalcitrant lawmakers into approving trillions of dollars in deficit spending—and probably will need to do so again when it reaches the Senate next month—a larger and more difficult challenge looms. Trump finds himself in a space occupied by his predecessor, President Joe Biden, in having to explain to Americans why they are wrong to feel they way they do about the economy. That's never a good starting point to get them spending again. Write to Martin Baccardax at
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Business Standard
21-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Indian Rupee ends flat at 85.64/$ as high oil prices offset weak dollar
The Indian Rupee ended flat on Wednesday as the surge in crude oil prices capped any positive movements from the weakness in the dollar index. The domestic currency closed at 85.64, the same level it ended yesterday against the greenback, according to Bloomberg data. The currency has fallen by over 1.3 per cent so far this month, snapping two months of gains. The Dollar Index showed signs of persistent weakness as it once again fell below the 100 mark, as officials flagged troubles for the economy. The index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was 0.44 per cent lower at 99.66. During the session, the fall dollar value boosted Asian currencies, which rose between 0.1 per cent and 0.4 per cent. Federal Reserve officials had a cautious tone on the US economic outlook. According to reports, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem cautioned that the US labour market may weaken and prices could rise, a concern echoed by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. The 10-year treasury yield climbed back to the 4.50 per cent level, while short-maturity yields were broadly unchanged. Crude oil prices rose after reports emerged that Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Brent crude price was up 1.04 per cent to $66.06 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were 1.16 per cent higher at 62.75, as of 3:40 PM IST. Firm global crude oil prices intensified the downside pressure on the currency, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors. The latest geopolitical developments may cause a tick-up in oil prices, which can cause the rupee to be in pressure, he said. Technically, the dollar-rupee pair is expected to face strong resistance near 85.60-85.80 levels while 85.20 will act as a strong support, Pabari said. Meanwhile, Investors will closely monitor any further selling by foreign portfolio investors following their sale of equities worth ₹10,016.1 crore in the cash market on Tuesday.
Business Recorder
21-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Fed comments weigh on dollar, set stage for slight Indian rupee upside
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to open marginally higher on Wednesday, buoyed by a decline in the U.S. dollar after Federal Reserve officials adopted a cautious tone on the U.S. economic outlook. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 85.56–85.58 range, compared to 85.6350 in the previous session. The rupee is likely to move marginally higher, if at all, on the back of the weakness in the dollar, a currency trader at a bank said, noting that recent upticks in the currency have consistently fizzled out amid incessant dollar demand. The dollar index dropped 0.4% on Tuesday and extended losses in Asian trading, falling below the key 100 handle. The fall boosted Asian currencies, which rose between 0.1% and 0.4%. Indian rupee slips against dollar Comments from Fed officials on Tuesday reinforced concerns around the U.S. economic outlook amid uncertainty tied to President Trump's trade policies. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that despite recent cooling in U.S.-China trade tensions, the U.S. labor market is likely to weaken and prices could increase. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the U.S. economy may be on the brink of a price-hike wave. Long-term U.S. Treasuries sold off, pushing the 10-year yield back to the 4.50% level, while short-maturity yields were broadly unchanged. The further steepening of the yield curve possibly reflected concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook and higher inflation, MUFG Bank said in a note. 'There is possibly fading market confidence towards US trade and fiscal policies,' it said. Trump is urging fellow Republicans in Congress to rally behind a sweeping tax-cut proposal, which, if passed, could heighten concerns over U.S. fiscal policy.
The Star
20-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks close lower amid doubts from tariffs, inflation optimism
NEW YORK, May 20 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, as investor confidence wavered amid fresh warnings that optimism surrounding easing trade tensions and slowing inflation may be premature. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 114.83 points, or 0.27 percent, to end at 42,677.24. The S&P 500 lost 23.14 points, or 0.39 percent, closing at 5,940.46, snapping a six-day winning streak. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 72.75 points, or 0.38 percent, to 19,142.71. Eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended in red, with energy and communication services leading losses, down 0.99 percent and 0.77 percent, respectively. Utilities and health care were the day's top performers, edging up 0.29 percent and 0.27 percent, respectively. Concerns resurfaced after St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem cautioned that tariffs could still have a "significant" economic impact, despite the recent trade truce between the United States and China. "The range of possible economic outcomes for the next few quarters is wide," Musalem said. "Economic policy uncertainty is unusually high." The White House has continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to treat recent price increases as temporary and to begin lowering interest rates, with U.S. President Donald Trump urging the central bank to ease policy. However, many Fed officials remain divided, expressing uncertainty about the direction of the economy and the appropriate next steps for monetary policy. Meanwhile, Trump's sweeping tax bill continued to face political resistance in the House. On Tuesday, the U.S. president visited Capitol Hill in an attempt to rally support from both fiscal conservatives and a group of blue-state Republicans seeking changes to the state and local tax deduction cap. On the corporate front, Home Depot was down 0.61 percent after it reported mixed earnings results, reflecting caution among consumers amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. The home improvement retailer posted a 9.4 percent year-over-year revenue increase to 39.86 billion U.S. dollars in the fiscal quarter ending May 4, slightly above expectations. However, earnings per share fell 3 percent to 3.56, missing the consensus forecast of 3.59 U.S. dollars. "We project it to take multiple quarters and into next year before the growth becomes more solid and flows through to earnings, as near-term macro pressures continue, particularly with uncertainty amidst new tariff policies," Telsey Advisory Group's Joe Feldman wrote in a note prior to earnings. Mega-cap tech stocks, which have led much of the recent market rebound, saw broad weakness. Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet all declined, while Microsoft and Meta also lost ground. Tesla rose 0.51 percent, extending a multi-week rally, and Broadcom added 0.46 percent.
