Latest news with #StatCan
Hamilton Spectator
3 days ago
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Economists expect Bank of Canada will pause interest rate cuts following surprise GDP growth
The Canadian economy grew more than expected in the first three months of 2025 as businesses tried to get ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, prompting economists to reevaluate their predictions for the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized pace of 2.2 per cent, Statistics Canada reported Friday morning. That's higher than the agency's early estimate of 1.5 per cent and the economist consensus of 1.7 per cent. 'The key point here is that the GDP figures are sending no obvious distress signals so far in 2025,' BMO economist Douglas Porter wrote in a note to clients. He pointed out that Canada's economy was among the top performers in the G7 as GDP dropped in both the U.S. and Japan last quarter. 'With this sturdy set of results, we are officially abandoning our call of a (Bank of Canada) rate cut next week,' he said RBC economists also said they believe the bank will be holding rates steady. Canada exported more cars, industrial machinery, equipment and parts in the first quarter, StatCan said. At the same time, imports for those kinds of goods rose. 'The threat of tariffs can be expected to influence trading patterns and incite importers to increase shipments prior to these tariffs being implemented to avoid additional costs,' StatCan wrote. But while Friday's headline might indicate the Canadian economy is faring well, 'digging beneath the surface suggests otherwise,' said TD economist Andrew Hencic in a note. Household spending slowed in the first quarter with Canadian consumers spending less on passenger vehicles. Residential investment also decreased as resale activity slumped. Other economists than Porter seem less sure on what Friday's news will mean for the Bank of Canada's interest rate call next Wednesday. The policy rate currently sits at 2.75 per cent. Experts are concerned about surging unemployment, particularly among young people . But the bank's preferred 'core' inflation measures, which exclude the impacts of the consumer carbon tax removal, heated up last month . 'The upshot is that there is still a strong case for the Bank to cut next week although, amid the extreme tariff uncertainty following events this week, we clearly can't rule out another pause as the Bank awaits for more information,' wrote Capital Economics economist Stephen Brown in a note to clients. 'Indeed, market participants are more convinced than us, with interest rate swaps pricing in an 80 per cent chance of a pause,' as of Friday morning, he said. Last Wednesday, an American federal court blocked Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under an emergency-powers law. But, for now, the tariffs will remain in place while he appeals the decision by the U.S. Court of International Trade. With files from The Associated Press.
Toronto Star
4 days ago
- Business
- Toronto Star
Canada's economy grew 2.2% annualized in Q1 as businesses raced to beat tariffs
OTTAWA - A rush to get ahead of Canada's looming tariff dispute with the United States powered economic growth in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said Friday. Real gross domestic product rose 2.2 per cent annualized in the three-month period, the agency reported, up a tick from 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter. Annualized real GDP figures for the final quarter of 2024 were revised down by half a percentage point, StatCan said, and other quarters from last year were also adjusted in Friday's release. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The first quarter figures topped StatCan's flash estimate for annualized growth of 1.5 per cent and beat calls for 1.7 per cent from a Reuters poll of economists. Threats of tariffs from the United States suffused the first quarter for Canada's economy, particularly for the trade-sensitive automotive industry and steel and aluminum sectors. Those import taxes and Canada's retaliatory tariffs were initially applied in early March, though each have since faced a variety of adjustments and exemptions. StatCan said that fears around the looming trade war inspired both Canadian importers and exporters to rush to get ahead of tariffs. Goods exports were up 1.6 per cent in the first quarter, StatCan said, driven by increased shipments of passenger vehicles and industrial machinery and parts. Non-farm businesses were also building up their inventories, reversing withdrawals from the previous quarter and pushing GDP higher. Hampering growth was the uptick in imports and a slowdown in housing resale activity. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Ownership transfer costs, which represent resales, were down 18.6 per cent quarterly – the largest drop in roughly three years. Rates of household spending and saving were both slowing meanwhile in the first quarter amid weaker income gains, the agency said. Figures for March show growth of 0.1 per cent in real GDP, rebounding from a slight contraction in February, amid a boost in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. StatCan's advance estimates see the economy also growing 0.1 per cent in April despite what it expects was a fourth consecutive monthly decline in the manufacturing industry. The Bank of Canada will be parsing the GDP figures closely ahead of its interest rate announcement set for June 4. This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 30, 2025.
Global News
6 days ago
- Business
- Global News
‘People are very frightened': Summer Ontario tourism feeling Trump tariff chill
Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office and began imposing tariffs on Canada, there has been a concerted effort by many Canadians to shop local and to not travel south of the border. But while the traffic has slowed heading to the U.S., causing some issues for the tourism industry down south, there has also been a decline in the number of Americans heading in the opposite direction as well. According to StatCan, the number of U.S. residents entering Canada by air fell 5.5 per cent in April year over year while the number making their way across the border in a car dropped 10.7 per cent, a figure which equates to around 82,000 less people visiting the Great White North. While this may seem like a smallish figure, this an issue for those who make a living off tourism in Northern Ontario, where many Americans travel to take advantage of the abundance of fishing and wildlife. Story continues below advertisement 'If you start at the Quebec border and you work way across to the northwestern border at Manitoba, the American percentage, the percentage of American clientele go from about 50 per cent all the way up to 100 per cent as you go west and further north,' Nature & Outdoor Tourism Ontario executive director Laurie Marcil explained. 'Our U.S. guests love remoteness. They love what we have.' But the tourism industry has been working to bring the Americans back since the dark days of the pandemic and were approaching pre-pandemic levels in 2025. 'In March and April, we heard from operators that this was looking like a really good season, it still is, and that numbers seem to be creeping back up on the American side,' Marcile explained 'So that was really good news. Definitely good news, but yes, we are starting to see cancelations coming in May.' Both Marcil and David MacLachlan, who serves as the executive director of Destination Northern Ontario, say their memberships have said there is some concern from some Americans about whether they would be safe when they travelled north of the border. 'Some people have had cancelations you know for the reasons of that people like are questioning 'are they going to be safe?' while they're here,' MacLachlan told Global News. Story continues below advertisement Marcil said there were issues when the tariffs first set in with American tourists having issues with border guards over the groceries they were attempting to bring into Canada but that they have since been cleared up. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy But she noted, 'a negative experience, that goes far and wide nowadays with social media. So it's making sure that we're kind of nipping those things.' Professor Wayne Smith, who serves as the director of the Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research at Toronto Metropolitan University, said that safety is vital to the tourism industry. 'We're a safety industry. If people don't feel safe, they won't travel. We saw that during COVID, and we'll see that now,' he explained. But he believes that safety is not the only factor affecting U.S. tourism as there are economics playing a part as well. 'What we're seeing in the States is a little different than what you're seeing here,' Smith offered. 'In that it's not a political thing so much in the States as an economy thing.' He noted that when there is a decline in the travel sector, it is usually one of the first signs that the economy is tanking. Smith also noted that cuts to the public sector by the Trump administration as well as job losses at American schools are both employment area which would normally be secure in times of recession, causing people to cut travel budgets. Story continues below advertisement MacLachlan said his organization had done surveys which backed up the idea that the financial picture south fo the border was playing a part in travel Our members 'did a survey of U.S. fishermen, so their traditional U. S. fishermen clientele, to figure out why they weren't coming to Canada, and most of it was related at that time to economic reasons,' MacLachlan said. 'You know, we had significant inflation in both countries and it seemed to be that was the predominant reason why people weren't coming to Canada.' But he also noted that lately, geopolitical factors have started to weave their way into the travel picture as much as the economic picture. While the number of Americans is in slight decline, domestic bookings are helping to fill some of the void. 'We are hearing reports that there are more domestic market bookings, which is great,' Marcil said. 'I am hearing from other provinces, people looking at Ontario for travel as well, which was fantastic.' While some of the impact of less U.S. tourist visits to Northern Ontario can be negated by Canucks staying home, they will not replicate the spending of American visits. 'Some of the studies that we've done in the past show that an American guest will spend, I think it's four times what a domestic person will spend what a Canadian will spend on the trip,' Marcil said. Story continues below advertisement The American visits don't just provide restaurant visits and hotel stays, they also provide growth to our overall economy. 'If I went to a restaurant in Toronto, that's still money that's being spent in Ontario, right?' Smith explained. 'As opposed to when you get an American, that new money into the economy. So it's export dollars. And those are very valuable and those are what you use to build an economy.' So what can the Ontario travel industry do amidst all of the turmoil going on south of the border to keep the Yankees from staying home? The organizations say they have been collectively working on marketing efforts south of the border to make sure Americans know they will be welcome here. 'We are just trying to make sure that people know that they'll be welcome here,' MacLachlan said. The low dollar is also a huge advantage for Americans heading north of the border, but do they know it? 'With the exchange rate, Americans are generally getting 30 per cent off everything,' Smith said. 'But most Americans have no idea what the exchange rate is. Other than being in border towns, they never even think about it.' The TMU professor said with politics and the economy involved, the situation may be out of the hands of Canadians. Story continues below advertisement 'It's a challenge because I don't think this is a Canadian thing,' he said. 'I think this a internal U.S. thing where people are very frightened for whatever reason. 'It could be economic-frightened, it could be political-frightened, it could social-frightened, all these things. And people don't travel a whole lot when they're scared.' Smith feels that they should shift some of the spending over to Europe in an effort to replace some of what may be lost by less U.S. visits. 'If I was to take marketing dollars, I would get really aggressive with Europe and those European tourists,' Smith said. 'The euro is so strong versus the Canadian dollar is a heck of a deal to come to Canada right now. And Europeans love to travel. 'But they're not going to replace the U.S. market because it's so much easier (to travel to Ontario).'
Epoch Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Epoch Times
Canada's Inflation Rate Falls to 1.7 Percent in April as Carbon Tax Is Lifted
Canada's inflation rate slowed to driven by lower energy prices following the removal of the consumer carbon tax, a ccording to Statistics Canada. The country's inflation rate was at 2.3 percent in March. It fell in April due to a combination of lower energy prices from the carbon tax's removal, decreased oil demand due to U.S. tariffs, and increased oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, StatCan says. Energy prices fell 12.7 percent in April following a 0.3 percent decline in March. Year over year, natural gas prices fell 14.1 percent in April after a 6.4 percent gain in March. While energy prices pushed inflation down in April, food prices grew at a faster pace, rising 3.8 percent year-over-year compared to 3.2 percent in March. The largest contributors to the food price increases were items such as fresh vegetables (3.7 percent), beef (16.2 percent), coffee and tea (13. 4 percent), and sugar (8.6 percent). This marks the third month in a row that grocery price increases have outpaced the overall inflation rate. Restaurant food also rose at a faster pace in April, coming in a 3.6 percent compared to 3.2 percent in March. Canada imposed Loblaws recently Related Stories 5/19/2025 5/17/2025 Shortly after taking office on March 14, Prime Minister Mark Carney signed a directive for the consumer carbon tax rate to be cut to zero. The carbon tax came into effect in 2019 at $20 per tonne, and was set to increase until reaching $170 per tonne in 2030. When removing the consumer carbon tax, Carney said the move would 'make a difference to hard-pressed Canadians.' He previously said the carbon tax had become 'too divisive' among Canadians. In commenting on the news of the inflation rate drop on social media, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said though the suspension of the carbon tax had brought down inflation, grocery prices were again rising as 'money-printing deficits continue pushing prices higher.' Poilievre and the Conservatives repeatedly called for the carbon tax to be removed throughout 2023 and 2024, arguing that it was raising the cost of food, fuel, and heating. In April, the Bank of Canada Carney has said he will replace the carbon tax with a 'consumer carbon credit market' integrated into Canada's industrial pricing system, which will reward Canadians for making lower-emission choices while making 'big polluters pay' for those incentives. A recent TD Canada The report said the jump in food inflation is a 'setback' for the Bank of Canada and 'complicates' its path forward on monetary policy. The Bank held its core interest rate steady at 2.75 percent in April due to uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, but TD Bank said it expects there will be two more rate cuts this year due to a slowing labour market and Ottawa offering a temporary reprieve on some tariffs.
Epoch Times
23-05-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
Most Quebecers Want Province's Carbon Tax Removed: Poll
There are now twice as many Quebecers who want the province's carbon tax removed than those who want to keep it in place, according to a new poll. Polling firm Léger released the results of a new The results were published on the same day that Statistics Canada released the inflation StatCan noted that Quebec had the hottest inflation in the country due to fuel prices not falling, as they had elsewhere in Canada. With the federal government setting the fuel charge rate to zero last month, and British Columbia Quebec's carbon system currently adds approximately 10 cents to a litre of gasoline. The federal system previously added over 17 cents to a litre of gas, but didn't apply to Quebec, which has its own carbon pricing system. Related Stories 8/23/2023 5/20/2025 The Léger poll on the carbon tax also looked at voting intentions of the respondents. Among all the parties, only supporters of left-wing Québec solidaire were in favour of maintaining the carbon tax. The most favourable to getting rid of the tax are supporters of the Quebec Conservative Party (74 percent), followed by Quebec Liberals (68 percent), the ruling Coalition Avenir Québec (59 percent), and the separatist Parti Québecois (53 percent). The Parti Québécois is currently Even though there is almost a consensus among supporters of Quebec parties to drop the carbon tax, Quebec's National Assembly The move followed Prime Minister Mark Carney fulfilling a Liberal leadership race promise to remove the consumer carbon tax on April 1. The Léger poll, conducted on the behalf of Québécor media entities, shows a continued notable shift among Quebecers on climate change policies. Since the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canada, Quebecers have become more favourable to building a new pipeline on their territory. A lack of 'social accessibility' had been previously cited by the government a reason to not go ahead with oil and gas projects such as GNL Québec. Carney said last week he would support the building of new pipelines if there was a national consensus on the matter. Meanwhile, some of his cabinet ministers have already Léger also probed Quebecers on pipelines in its latest poll. Fifty-five percent of Quebecers supported the idea of building an East-West pipeline, while 26 percent were opposed to it. Similar to the stance on the carbon tax, only supporters of Québec solidaire were opposed to the pipeline. Supporters of the Quebec Liberal Party were most in favour at 75 percent, followed by Quebec Conservatives at 70 percent. Eastern Canada currently receives its fuel from pipelines coming from the United States and shipments from other foreign countries. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Western Canadian oil is exported south of the border.
