07-05-2025
Betting Sites Place Odds on the Papal Conclave
The wisdom of crowds can go only so far. High-tech betting sites 'will never be able to break through the complexity, the unpredictability of the decisions made inside,' said Franca Giansoldati, a Vatican specialist who writes for Il Messaggero, one of Italy's biggest daily newspapers.
Rajiv Sethi, an economist at Barnard College who has studied prediction markets, noted that when it came to the presidential election, bettors were able to process a wide variety of information sources, including public polls and televised debates. The papal conclave — famously conducted behind closed doors and composed of an expected 133 cardinal electors sworn to secrecy — offers far fewer clues for gamblers.
'We can rule out information leakage from cardinals,' Mr. Sethi said.
Conclave politics have been highly unpredictable. In 2013, the odds-on favorite was Cardinal Angelo Scola; Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis, was on few short lists. (That's a reminder that, as vaticanisti often say: Whoever enters the conclave as pope exits a cardinal.)
This time the cardinals again appear divided, and many are meeting for the first time, factors that could complicate how long it takes before white smoke emerges from the Sistine Chapel. Once the cardinals are locked inside, their politicking and alliance-building are obscured.
Conclaves often turn on moments out of public view, when 'everything can turn upside down in an instant,' said Stefano Maria Paci, a vaticanista for L'Espresso, one of Italy's most-read weekly newsmagazines.
