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Israel's war with Iran has reordered the Middle East—but not as expected
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Stephen Kalin , Summer Said , The Wall Street Journal Israel's military success against Iran undermines one incentive for Saudi normalization and raises concerns about its growing power. Israel's air assault on Iran caused heavy damage in parts of Tehran. (Photo by AFP) Gift this article
The Middle East is undergoing a dramatic realignment—just not the one U.S. and regional leaders envisioned less than two years ago.
The Middle East is undergoing a dramatic realignment—just not the one U.S. and regional leaders envisioned less than two years ago.
Before the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, years of painstaking negotiations brought Saudi Arabia to the cusp of a landmark deal for diplomatic recognition of Israel. That would have solidified an Israeli-Arab coalition against Iran, locked in U.S. support for Saudi security and opened the door to greater acceptance of Israel in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
This month, Israel's thrashing of longtime enemy Iran scrambled the calculations underpinning that proposed agreement in just 12 days. It was the bookend on a series of wars that defanged Iran's powerful militia allies Hezbollah and Hamas, helped advance the collapse of the Iran-backed Assad regime in Syria and ultimately put Iran itself in a corner.
The Trump administration and Israel's government have signaled they want to make a new push for normalization. But with Iran now on the back foot, there is less incentive for Saudi Arabia to set aside other concerns to move forward. It will need time to assess the implications of the shocking advantage Israel demonstrated with its military and intelligence capabilities—and its high tolerance for the risks of using them.
Senior Gulf officials are concerned their investment in relations with Washington, including hosting President Trump's high-profile trip to the Gulf last month, haven't paid off in influence. Trump's repeated encouragement of Israel's attacks and threats against Iran's supreme leader made them fear a wider war.
In the end, Trump ordered a limited strike on Iran's main nuclear sites, then brokered a cease-fire that stopped the fighting, at one point warning Israel to turn its bombers around. But while the worst scenarios were avoided, Gulf leaders are going to reassess the landscape before moving forward.
'Everything is in flux," said Bader al-Saif, an expert on Persian Gulf and Arabian affairs at Kuwait University.
A satellite image captures damage from the U.S. strike on Iran's Fordow nuclear site.
Trump is eager to use the momentum from the Iran cease-fire to push for more countries to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, building on the Abraham Accords that he brokered in his first term involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
'One of the president's key objectives is that the Abraham Accords be expanded, that more countries come into it, and we are working on that," special envoy Steve Witkoff said Wednesday on CNBC. 'We're hoping for normalization across an array of countries that maybe people would have never contemplated would come in."
But there remain significant obstacles to moving forward with normalization in the Gulf. The Saudis have made it clear they won't do a deal while the war continues unresolved in the Gaza Strip, where more than 56,000 people have been killed so far, according to Palestinian authorities who don't say how many were combatants.
Saudi Arabia is also insisting on a credible pathway to a Palestinian state—something Israel firmly rejects—in hopes of addressing what it sees as the root of the conflict.
'It's going to take a lot of work, and the space isn't there now," a Saudi official said about establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. 'The urgency is the state of Palestine and not the Iranian risk."
The geopolitical rebalancing under way in the Middle East adds to the complications. Israel's military and intelligence operations against Iran and Hezbollah intimidated Arab states, which worry Israel will take actions that they don't support and can't influence, said Rep. Zach Nunn (R., Iowa).
'Israel just became a victim of its own success," he said after meeting with leaders in Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Bahrain, as part of a bipartisan Congressional delegation in the midst of the Israel-Iran war. The Gulf monarchies see Israel's military capabilities and want assurances they will use them responsibly, he said.
Working with Israel to contain Iran became more attractive to some Arab states in recent years. Israel and the Gulf are both in range of Iran's missiles, and Tehran's support for armed factions in the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen threatened the security of Israel and many Arab countries.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2017 denounced Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as 'the new Hitler of the Middle East." Around that time, a cartoon video surfaced online showing an amphibious Saudi invasion of Iran that ends with Saudi tanks rolling into Tehran and a triumphant Saudi crown prince.
Breaking with the decade-old Arab boycott of Israel imposed over the Palestinian issue, the U.A.E. and Bahrain normalized ties in 2020. Trump tried to get Saudi Arabia to follow suit during his first term but ultimately ran out of time.
A three-way deal negotiated by the Biden administration in 2023 would have committed Washington to help defend Riyadh if it were attacked and develop a civilian nuclear program with uranium enrichment, in exchange for U.S. access to Saudi territory and airspace to protect U.S. interests as well as restrictions on Saudi security cooperation with China.
The Gulf, like Israel, has been on the receiving end of attacks from Iran and its allies. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for a 2019 drone-and-missile assault on two of its biggest oil installations. Yemen's Houthis repeatedly attacked southern Saudi cities and the capital, Riyadh, hitting close to the front gate of the Saudi government palace in 2021. The militants also launched missiles and drones at the U.A.E., which participated in the Saudi-led bombing campaign in Yemen.
Concerned the skirmishing could damage their plans for economic growth, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. hedged their bets by reaching a detente with Iran in 2023, in a geopolitical juggling act to avoid having to choose sides.
They leveraged that new relationship to avoid being pulled into the region's conflicts after Oct. 7. When Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel in April and October 2024, it notified Gulf countries in advance so they could clear their airspace. When Israel responded, the Saudis warned the Iranians not to retaliate against Gulf energy facilities and lobbied Washington against Israeli escalation.
Israel's campaign against Iran tested that careful balance. While the Gulf states are happy to see Iran weakened, talk of regime change reminded them of the U.S. occupation of Iraq and the chaos unleashed after Saddam Hussein was toppled. Even after the cease-fire halted the Israel-Iran war, Saudi Arabia is concerned Iran remains politically volatile and capable of lashing out, Gulf officials said.
As the prospect of Israeli strikes grew this year, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Qatar and Oman helped pass messages and mediate between the U.S. and Iran. Anwar Gargash, foreign-policy adviser to the Emirati leader, traveled to Tehran in March to deliver a letter from Trump, and Prince Mohammed's younger brother met with Khamenei in April to assure him that Riyadh opposed military action against Iran's nuclear program.
Saudi efforts to keep U.S.-Iran diplomacy on track ultimately failed, and on June 13 Israel's confrontation with Iran landed at Riyadh's doorstep. Gulf officials said they lobbied Washington to pressure Israel to stop and were initially reassured that the U.S. wouldn't get involved.
Where Saudi Arabia had benefited from growing U.S. and Israeli pressure on Tehran, it now fears becoming 'a recipient of a new regional order," said Maria Fantappie, who heads the Middle East and Africa program at Istituto Affari Internazionali, a think tank in Rome. The concern is Israel 'will not diminish and dismantle the Islamic Republic and then let the Saudis grow stronger."
The Gulf states condemned Israel's strikes on Iran as a violation of Iranian sovereignty. They invoked similar language after Trump authorized strikes on Saturday night but calibrated it apparently to avoid provoking the mercurial president. They rallied again after the Iranian strike on a U.S. base in Qatar on Monday, coordinating a message of restraint and de-escalation to pave the way for the cease-fire.
The Israel-Iran war flew in the face of a regional order the Gulf countries are trying to build that prioritizes prosperity over conflict, Gargash said.
'There are many issues in the region," he told reporters a day before the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites last weekend. 'If we choose to tackle everything with a hammer, nothing will be left unbroken." Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Politics news,Breaking NewsEvents andLatest News Updates on Live Mint. Download TheMint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
