Israel's war with Iran has reordered the Middle East—but not as expected
Next Story
Stephen Kalin , Summer Said , The Wall Street Journal Israel's military success against Iran undermines one incentive for Saudi normalization and raises concerns about its growing power. Israel's air assault on Iran caused heavy damage in parts of Tehran. (Photo by AFP) Gift this article
The Middle East is undergoing a dramatic realignment—just not the one U.S. and regional leaders envisioned less than two years ago.
The Middle East is undergoing a dramatic realignment—just not the one U.S. and regional leaders envisioned less than two years ago.
Before the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, years of painstaking negotiations brought Saudi Arabia to the cusp of a landmark deal for diplomatic recognition of Israel. That would have solidified an Israeli-Arab coalition against Iran, locked in U.S. support for Saudi security and opened the door to greater acceptance of Israel in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
This month, Israel's thrashing of longtime enemy Iran scrambled the calculations underpinning that proposed agreement in just 12 days. It was the bookend on a series of wars that defanged Iran's powerful militia allies Hezbollah and Hamas, helped advance the collapse of the Iran-backed Assad regime in Syria and ultimately put Iran itself in a corner.
The Trump administration and Israel's government have signaled they want to make a new push for normalization. But with Iran now on the back foot, there is less incentive for Saudi Arabia to set aside other concerns to move forward. It will need time to assess the implications of the shocking advantage Israel demonstrated with its military and intelligence capabilities—and its high tolerance for the risks of using them.
Senior Gulf officials are concerned their investment in relations with Washington, including hosting President Trump's high-profile trip to the Gulf last month, haven't paid off in influence. Trump's repeated encouragement of Israel's attacks and threats against Iran's supreme leader made them fear a wider war.
In the end, Trump ordered a limited strike on Iran's main nuclear sites, then brokered a cease-fire that stopped the fighting, at one point warning Israel to turn its bombers around. But while the worst scenarios were avoided, Gulf leaders are going to reassess the landscape before moving forward.
'Everything is in flux," said Bader al-Saif, an expert on Persian Gulf and Arabian affairs at Kuwait University.
A satellite image captures damage from the U.S. strike on Iran's Fordow nuclear site.
Trump is eager to use the momentum from the Iran cease-fire to push for more countries to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, building on the Abraham Accords that he brokered in his first term involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
'One of the president's key objectives is that the Abraham Accords be expanded, that more countries come into it, and we are working on that," special envoy Steve Witkoff said Wednesday on CNBC. 'We're hoping for normalization across an array of countries that maybe people would have never contemplated would come in."
But there remain significant obstacles to moving forward with normalization in the Gulf. The Saudis have made it clear they won't do a deal while the war continues unresolved in the Gaza Strip, where more than 56,000 people have been killed so far, according to Palestinian authorities who don't say how many were combatants.
Saudi Arabia is also insisting on a credible pathway to a Palestinian state—something Israel firmly rejects—in hopes of addressing what it sees as the root of the conflict.
'It's going to take a lot of work, and the space isn't there now," a Saudi official said about establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. 'The urgency is the state of Palestine and not the Iranian risk."
The geopolitical rebalancing under way in the Middle East adds to the complications. Israel's military and intelligence operations against Iran and Hezbollah intimidated Arab states, which worry Israel will take actions that they don't support and can't influence, said Rep. Zach Nunn (R., Iowa).
'Israel just became a victim of its own success," he said after meeting with leaders in Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Bahrain, as part of a bipartisan Congressional delegation in the midst of the Israel-Iran war. The Gulf monarchies see Israel's military capabilities and want assurances they will use them responsibly, he said.
Working with Israel to contain Iran became more attractive to some Arab states in recent years. Israel and the Gulf are both in range of Iran's missiles, and Tehran's support for armed factions in the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen threatened the security of Israel and many Arab countries.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2017 denounced Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as 'the new Hitler of the Middle East." Around that time, a cartoon video surfaced online showing an amphibious Saudi invasion of Iran that ends with Saudi tanks rolling into Tehran and a triumphant Saudi crown prince.
Breaking with the decade-old Arab boycott of Israel imposed over the Palestinian issue, the U.A.E. and Bahrain normalized ties in 2020. Trump tried to get Saudi Arabia to follow suit during his first term but ultimately ran out of time.
A three-way deal negotiated by the Biden administration in 2023 would have committed Washington to help defend Riyadh if it were attacked and develop a civilian nuclear program with uranium enrichment, in exchange for U.S. access to Saudi territory and airspace to protect U.S. interests as well as restrictions on Saudi security cooperation with China.
The Gulf, like Israel, has been on the receiving end of attacks from Iran and its allies. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for a 2019 drone-and-missile assault on two of its biggest oil installations. Yemen's Houthis repeatedly attacked southern Saudi cities and the capital, Riyadh, hitting close to the front gate of the Saudi government palace in 2021. The militants also launched missiles and drones at the U.A.E., which participated in the Saudi-led bombing campaign in Yemen.
Concerned the skirmishing could damage their plans for economic growth, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. hedged their bets by reaching a detente with Iran in 2023, in a geopolitical juggling act to avoid having to choose sides.
They leveraged that new relationship to avoid being pulled into the region's conflicts after Oct. 7. When Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel in April and October 2024, it notified Gulf countries in advance so they could clear their airspace. When Israel responded, the Saudis warned the Iranians not to retaliate against Gulf energy facilities and lobbied Washington against Israeli escalation.
Israel's campaign against Iran tested that careful balance. While the Gulf states are happy to see Iran weakened, talk of regime change reminded them of the U.S. occupation of Iraq and the chaos unleashed after Saddam Hussein was toppled. Even after the cease-fire halted the Israel-Iran war, Saudi Arabia is concerned Iran remains politically volatile and capable of lashing out, Gulf officials said.
As the prospect of Israeli strikes grew this year, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Qatar and Oman helped pass messages and mediate between the U.S. and Iran. Anwar Gargash, foreign-policy adviser to the Emirati leader, traveled to Tehran in March to deliver a letter from Trump, and Prince Mohammed's younger brother met with Khamenei in April to assure him that Riyadh opposed military action against Iran's nuclear program.
Saudi efforts to keep U.S.-Iran diplomacy on track ultimately failed, and on June 13 Israel's confrontation with Iran landed at Riyadh's doorstep. Gulf officials said they lobbied Washington to pressure Israel to stop and were initially reassured that the U.S. wouldn't get involved.
Where Saudi Arabia had benefited from growing U.S. and Israeli pressure on Tehran, it now fears becoming 'a recipient of a new regional order," said Maria Fantappie, who heads the Middle East and Africa program at Istituto Affari Internazionali, a think tank in Rome. The concern is Israel 'will not diminish and dismantle the Islamic Republic and then let the Saudis grow stronger."
The Gulf states condemned Israel's strikes on Iran as a violation of Iranian sovereignty. They invoked similar language after Trump authorized strikes on Saturday night but calibrated it apparently to avoid provoking the mercurial president. They rallied again after the Iranian strike on a U.S. base in Qatar on Monday, coordinating a message of restraint and de-escalation to pave the way for the cease-fire.
The Israel-Iran war flew in the face of a regional order the Gulf countries are trying to build that prioritizes prosperity over conflict, Gargash said.
'There are many issues in the region," he told reporters a day before the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites last weekend. 'If we choose to tackle everything with a hammer, nothing will be left unbroken." Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Politics news,Breaking NewsEvents andLatest News Updates on Live Mint. Download TheMint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Indian Express
16 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Rape in Kolkata law college: BJP alleges ‘TMC allows criminals in educational institutes', ruling party says ‘Aparajita Bill needed'
The rape case of a woman in the premises of a Kolkata law college, registered on Friday, has sparked a political row, with the BJP-led Opposition invoking the R G Kar rape and murder case in August last year. BJP state president Sukanta Majumder said, 'This has happened for the second time in Kolkata where in a educational institute, a student was raped. The TMC gave lease to some criminals in educational institutes. This incident came to light, but such incidents are happening across the state… The police are not firmly taking action because the culprits are close to the TMC. Here, I have heard the main accused also threatened her parents. We say: if anyone threatens your child, come to us, we will give full legal support.' TMC MP Kalyan Banerjee said, 'Police can't be deployed at every college. Male colleagues should be alert and save their female colleagues. Some perverted persons are committing such crimes. Strong action should be taken against them. On the other hand, women should also stand against such crimes.' Meanwhile, Jayprakash Majumder, vice-president of TMC told mediapersons, 'This is a social malice. We all condemn the incident. We should all fight against this unitedly. This is not the time for blame games. Kolkata police has made a prompt arrest and justice will be served.' The Trinamool Congress also took to X, stating: 'We unequivocally condemn the tragic rape incident at (the college). Kolkata Police have swiftly apprehended all three accused, and the full weight of the law will be brought to bear, ensuring the most severe measures are imposed on those found guilty… This tragedy once again underscores the urgent need for the implementation of the Aparajita Anti-Rape Bill to establish a strong deterrent against sexual offences, emphasising the necessity for speedy investigations, swift trials, and stringent punishments. It is extremely unfortunate that the BJP government at the Centre has not lifted a finger to get it implemented.' State secretary of SFI Debanjan Dey alleged that 'the main culprit… is a known criminal of Kalighat. Many cases are pending against him. Even after that, he was given a job at this college. Why didn't the police take action against him?' The TMC continued in its post, '… Our hearts are heavy with sorrow for the profound trauma endured by the victim. The state administration, under Hon'ble Chief Minister Mamaa Banerjee, is committed to providing every possible form of support and assistance to the victim during this distressing time. Justice will be served.'
Time of India
19 minutes ago
- Time of India
Vietnam braces for end of US tariff pause
AP Image Businesses in Vietnam's capital are suffering from declining sales after the United States introduced trade tariffs on the country earlier this year. Hanoi's Old Quarter is replete with stores selling designer goods, brand clothing and electronics from rustic French colonial buildings that still form the fabric of the area. Signs proclaiming that goods are "Made in Vietnam" are everywhere — a concept locals insist on emphasizing to passers-by, hoping for sales from foot traffic made up largely of tourists and backpackers. Vietnam PM expects trade deal before July tariff deadline Vietnam is an attractive prospect for US investors because of its young workforce and low labour costs. However, that has been dampened by Washington's 46 percent tariff rate, which is due to come into effect in July. Hanoi is in negotiations with Washington for a reduction. On Wednesday, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said he expected a trade deal with the US ahead of the scheduled 46 percent tariffs. "I hope that you will see that the result will come earlier than two weeks," Chinh said. "Vietnam and the US share a deep understanding on tariffs. I hope that all the positive things will come for us." In the meantime, a baseline tariff of 10 percent has been in place since April. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Livguard Lithium-X: The Future of Power Backup Livguard Learn More Undo Fast-growing economy Apple, Samsung and Nike have chosen Vietnam as key manufacturing locations. The country exported goods worth $142 million to the US last year, accounting for about 30 percent of its total economic output. Vietnam has one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia, with a projected GDP growth of 6.8 percent by the end of 2025, according to a report by the World Bank in March. The report attributed the estimated growth to Vietnam rebounding in industries such as manufacturing exports, tourism and foreign direct investment. But those projections may not meet expectations in the absence of a trade deal or tariff relief. "Without tariff relief, Vietnam will fail to hit their ambitious growth targets; the US market is simply too important for them," Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, told DW. "Even if they can reduce that 46 percent tariff, the Trump administration has imposed a baseline 10 percent tariff on all countries." Why are Trump's tariffs so high? US President Donald Trump has hit Hanoi with high tariffs partly due to concerns that China is using Vietnam as a transshipment point to work around its own high tariffs imposed by Washington. Hanoi has intensified efforts to curb illegal transshipment, predominantly involving goods from China. Eric Nguyen, CEO of Grando Premium Aluminium Vietnam, which produces and exports to international markets worldwide, told DW that the US government suspects that Vietnam is using products from China. "But the fact is that Grando, we do not use Chinese material, [everything is] 100 percent made in Vietnam," Nguyen said, adding that the tariffs have forced their operations to rely on other markets worldwide. " We seek to expand our export market to other markets, such as Europe, Japan, and Korea, so that we do not depend 100 percent to the US market and to be less vulnerable to any change from the US government," he said. Nguyen Tuong Phan, general manager of Aviation Solution Services, a cargo freight company in Hanoi, told DW that since the tariffs were introduced, cargo freight companies in China have been trying to send their cargo to the US via Vietnam in order to evade the higher rates. "Now a lot of charter flight from freight forwarders are coming from China, are now coming to Vietnam. The capacity to fly to the US increase from Vietnam has increased by, let's say, 80 percent,' he said. Balancing US demands with China ties Vietnam and China hold close relations both economically and politically. Beijing is Hanoi's largest trading partner and both countries share similar political ideologies and are governed by their respective Communist parties. Hanh Nguyen, a research fellow at the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies (YCAPS), said if Vietnam does decide to reduce its dealings with China, it will hurt the Vietnamese economy either way. "Reducing or even cutting off input materials and components from China will cause significant damage to Vietnam's economy," she told DW. She noted that Vietnam's manufacturing sector — particularly electronics and textiles — is "dependent on imported raw materials from regional supply chains based in China." "If Vietnam complies with US demands, it will also hurt Vietnam's ties with China, which will perceive Vietnam's compliance as joining the US-led anti-China coalition," Hanh added. Vietnam is a huge manufacturing hub for international clothing brands, but Washington has highlighted how counterfeit products have also contributed to their concerns over trade. In January, a report from the US Trade Representative flagged Saigon Square shopping mall as a hotspot for the sale of forged fashion items from major brands. Hanh said Vietnam has taken several measures to cater to Washington's concerns, that will hopefully reduce the high tariffs imposed on them. "[Vietnam has been] stepping up the crackdown on transshipment issues and has recently launched a new campaign to crack down on counterfeit products and digital piracy," he said, adding that the question now is: what will Vietnam's do next? "There is not a country in the world that has been more proactive than Vietnam in negotiating tariff relief with the Trump administration. One of the predicaments for the Vietnamese right now, is how much to negotiate and give away."
Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
Trump plans executive orders to power AI growth in race with China
Academy Empower your mind, elevate your skills The Trump administration is readying a package of executive actions aimed at boosting energy supply to power the US expansion of artificial intelligence, according to four sources familiar with the economic rivals US and China are locked in a technological arms race and with it secure an economic and military edge. The huge amount of data processing behind AI requires a rapid increase in power supplies that are straining utilities and grids in many moves under consideration include making it easier for power-generating projects to connect to the grid, and providing federal land on which to build the data centers needed to expand AI technology, according to the administration will also release an AI action plan and schedule public events to draw public attention to the efforts, according to the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss internal White House did not respond to requests for large-scale AI models requires a huge amount of electricity, and the industry's growth is driving the first big increase in U.S. power demand in 2024 and 2029, U.S. electricity demand is projected to grow at five times the rate predicted in 2022, according to power-sector consultancy Grid power demand from AI data centers could grow more than thirtyfold by 2035, according to a new report by consultancy and connecting new power generation to the grid, however, has been a major hurdle because such projects require extensive impact studies that can take years to complete, and existing transmission infrastructure is the ideas under consideration by the administration is to identify more fully developed power projects and move them higher on the waiting list for connection, two of the sources data centers has also been challenging because larger facilities require a lot of space and resources, and can face zoning obstacles or public executive orders could provide a solution to that by offering land managed by the Defense Department or Interior Department to project developers, the sources administration is also considering streamlining permitting for data centers by creating a nationwide Clean Water Act permit, rather than requiring companies to seek permits on a state-by-state basis, according to one of the January, Trump hosted top tech CEOs at the White House to highlight the Stargate Project, a multi-billion effort led by ChatGPT's creator OpenAI , SoftBank and Oracle to build data centers and create more than 100,000 jobs in the has prioritized winning the AI race against China and declared on his first day in office a national energy emergency aimed at removing all regulatory obstacles to oil and gas drilling, coal and critical mineral mining, and building new gas and nuclear power plants to bring more energy capacity also ordered his administration in January to produce an AI Action Plan that would make "America the world capital in artificial intelligence" and reduce regulatory barriers to its rapid report, which includes input from the National Security Council, is due by July 23. The White House is considering making July 23 "AI Action Day" to draw attention to the report and demonstrate its commitment to expanding the industry, two of the sources is scheduled to speak at an AI and energy event in Pennsylvania on July 15 hosted by Senator Dave earlier this month announced it would invest $20 billion in data centers in two Pennsylvania counties.
