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CTV News
2 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
What a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal could mean for global markets
Stock price information is displayed on screens as they hang above the Paris stock exchange, operated by Euronext NV, in La Defense business district in Paris, France. LONDON — World markets are watching closely as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska later on Friday to seal a possible ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. This is a conflict that sparked an energy shock, sent food prices soaring, battered European assets and cut Russia's economy off from much of the Western world. Details and the longevity of any agreement will be key, and for now investors are on standby. Ukraine's government bonds - key indicators of the mood - in recent days have largely stalled at a still-distressed 55 cents on the dollar. 'The big issue will be, of course, that even if we get a ceasefire, how sustainable is that?' said Zurich Insurance Group's chief markets strategist Guy Miller. Here is a summary of how Europe's biggest conflict since the Second World War has shaped markets and what impact a ceasefire agreement could have. Europe hurt Europe's reliance on cheap Russian gas meant its economy and stock market were ill-equipped to handle surging energy prices, and Germany's economy, Europe's industrial powerhouse, stagnated. Stocks were broadly punished, with sectors reliant on low energy prices, such as industrials and chemicals, notably hit. European banks also took a drubbing but have since recovered as those exposed to Russia cut ties. It has not been all doom and gloom and the European index is not far off March's record high. Aerospace and defense stocks have had a supercharged rally since February 2022, with gains ranging from over 600 per cent for Leonardo to over 1,500 per cent for Rheinmetall. 'If the fighting stops in Ukraine, I'd expect defense stocks to come off a little bit but I think the fundamental reason why defense stocks have rallied is still there,' said Toni Meadows, CIO at BRI Wealth Management. 'If Putin is still there and Trump is still there, then the need for Europe to spend on defense is still there.' Heated The invasion triggered a surge in European energy prices. Brent crude rose as much as 30 per cent to US$139 a barrel, while natural gas prices soared nearly 300 per cent to record highs. Crude subsided in the following months. But Dutch futures, the regional benchmark for natural gas, soared as Europe scrambled for an alternative to the Russian gas that fed over 40 per cent of total demand. Europe has since become increasingly reliant on U.S. super-chilled liquefied natural gas. The European Union has committed to boosting its purchases of U.S. crude, gas and coal from around $75 billion in 2024 to $250 billion per year to 2027, under a new U.S. trade deal - a figure most experts say is unrealistic. Oil and gas prices are below 2022 peaks, but they are higher than five years ago, up 50 per cent and 300 per cent, respectively. Genie out of the bottle Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the war ensured the inflation genie was well out of its bottle as energy and food prices soared while agricultural exports from Russia and Ukraine - two leading grain exporters - were disrupted. Central banks backtracked on the notion that an inflation spike was 'transitory' and aggressive interest rate hikes followed. Since late 2022, inflation and rates have come down in big economies and focus shifted to U.S. tariffs. High food prices remain a concern, especially for developing economies. World food commodity prices rose in July to their highest in over two years, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. 'If Ukraine could operate normally as an economy, that would help food prices around the world,' said April LaRusse, head of investment specialists at Insight Investment. Ukraine and Russia Ukraine's economy was battered by the war. The country was forced to restructure $20 billion of its government debt last year as it could no longer afford the repayments given the demands of the conflict. Its bonds then rallied on hopes that a re-elected Trump would broker a peace deal but plunged following increasingly ugly exchanges between Trump and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy that culminated in February's infamous Oval Office meeting. The bonds recovered some ground again this week. Russia's economy also contracted after the West introduced sweeping sanctions but soaring defense spending led to a rebound in 2023 and 2024. After jacking up rates to combat the subsequent inflation spike though, some Russian officials now warn of recession risks. Russia's rouble sank to a record low soon after the invasion, but rebounded to seven-year highs later in 2022 as imports dried up. It is up nearly 40 per cent against the dollar this year. Russia and China meanwhile now do more of their trade in the yuan, which has overtaken the dollar as Russia's most traded foreign currency. Currencies upended The war hit the euro, which fell almost six per cent against the U.S> dollar in 2022 as the economic impact was felt. Analysts say any improving sentiment created by a ceasefire could help the euro, but note that other factors, such as monetary policy were also key. 'The euro might benefit, but we wouldn't see this as a game changer for the currency,' said Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia. While safe-havens such as the dollar and Swiss franc benefited, the conflict shaped currencies in other ways. Analysts say the use of sanctions against Russia and a decision by the West to freeze some $300 billion of Russian state assets in 2022 has accelerated de-dollarisation, in short, efforts by countries to decrease reliance on the dollar. (Reporting by Amanda Cooper, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, additional reporting by Alexander Marrow, Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
Fast Company
5 days ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Crypto exchange Bullish raises its stock price target as IPO date nears
Cryptocurrency exchange Bullish has updated its stock price target ahead of its initial public offering, the company said in a regulatory filing on Monday. Here's what you need to know about the changes to one of the most closely watched IPOs of the year. What's happened? Bullish, a cryptocurrency exchange and owner of the CoinDesk crypto news site, has filed an amendment to its Form F-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In that amendment, Bullish revealed that it is upping both the number of shares it will be offering in its IPO as well as increasing its estimated offering share price. The amendment was filed with the SEC on Monday. In the amendment, Bullish reveals that it now plans to offer 30 million ordinary shares of Bullish stock. Previously, Bullish said it expected to issue 20.3 million shares in its IPO. Bullish has also raised its expected IPO price. Now the company says it expects to price shares between $32 and $33 each. Previously, Bullish said its shares would be offered for $28 to $31 each. Bullish stock will trade under the ticker BLSH. IPO calendar websites and a number of media outlets have reported that Bullish is expected to list it shares tomorrow (Wednesday, August 13) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Fast Company reached out to Bullish for more details on the timeline. Why is Bullish increasing its share price and offering? In its amended Form F-1, Bullish didn't explicitly state the reason that it was increasing both its share price range and the total number of shares it is offering in its IPO. However, whenever a company that is going public raises its share price or the number of shares it has on offer, it suggests a higher demand for its stock than once thought. As Fast Company previously reported, Bullish originally planned a 20.3 million share offering of $28 to $31 each, which would have valued Bullish at approximately $4.2 billion. But as noted by CNBC, under its new offering, Bullish now stands to be valued at $4.8 billion. The company is expected to raise about $990 million from its IPO. Bullish's IPO will be closely watched How investors react to Bullish's IPO will be closely watched by Wall Street. If Bullish has a successful IPO and shares surge after trading begins, it will suggest a growing investor appetite for initial public offerings heading into the second half of the year. Other private cryptocurrency companies will also be watching the Bullish IPO closely. Already this year, the markets have seen a number of high-profile crypto and fintech IPOs. Circle Internet Group, an issuer of stablecoins, went public in June and shares (NYSE: CRCL) soared a staggering 750%.
