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Miami Herald
03-08-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stocks will try to recover their mojo this week
So after Friday, when the all the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 fell an average 1% and the major averages fell more than 2% in a week, it's understandable to ask, "OK, now what?" Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Well, there are 1,382 earnings reports to think about. There's the economy, too. And all the tariff negotiations to consider. Will there be a deal with China? Can Canada kiss and make up with the Trump administration? How about we think about only a few earnings (we'll get to them shortly) and some of the forces that may well affect markets more than we expect now. Related: Warren Buffett's stock still struggling since May peak The Standard & Poor's 500 Index managed to hit five straight new closing highs between July 21 and July 28. The index then closed lower each day for the next four days ending with Friday's bust, with the S&P 500 off 1.6% for the day. The question is if those four days of selling were one-offs. Let's look at four realities. The indexes and many stocks have been giving off signals for weeks that it was getting to be overbought. Multiples have expanded until something triggered professional money managers to decide to wait for better prices. You saw it Thursday when the Federal Reserve held rates steady and wouldn't say when a rate is coming. You saw it Friday after reports from (AMZN) and Coinbase Global (COIN) disappointed investors. Not so much because the jobs created came in less than expected. It was the huge revisions for May and June that enraged President Trump enough to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accusing her of cooking the data to make him look bad. (Without evidence) This is a month, which, the Stock Traders Almanac tells us, is the worst month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and second worst month for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index. Related: Veteran trader takes hard look at Microsoft Q4 report and sends a warning They're doing back-to-school shopping. They're worried about wild fires in the West. Along the southern Atlantic and Gulf coasts, they're watching for hurricanes. China, Mexico and Canada negotiations are moving slowly. And they're starting to be a problem for many companies that can't absorb higher costs. Listen carefully when Walmart (WMT) reports earnings on Aug. 21. Last week's selloff pushed bond yields lower. Especially the 10-year Treasury note, the key determinant of mortgage rates. The rate on a 30-year mortgage was pushing toward 6.6%. Enough to save a home buyer upwards of $1,200 a year if buying a $300,000 home with 15% down. That assumes buyers and sellers can agree on prices that make sense. Did it affect stocks last week? It sure did. Shares of D.R. Horton (DHI) jumped 5.2% to $150.30 on Friday as bond yields came down. Horton, Pultegroup (PHM) , Lennar (LEN) and (NVR) were all sharply higher Friday and led the S&P 500's Consumer Discretionary Sector. The sector index was down 3.6%, partly because of Amazon's 8.3% tumble. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images Start with Palantir (PLTR) , which reports after Monday's close. The stock fell 2.9% last week, but it is up 13.2% this quarter and 104% this year. This an artificial intelligence play. It takes lots and lots of data and makes sense of it for military and big corporate clients. Revenue estimate: Earnings of 12 cents a share, up 33%. Revenue of $939 million would be up 38%. It is a pricey stock: Its simple price earnings ratio is 674. Its forward p/e ratio is 328. More Palantir Veteran trader surprises with Palantir price target and commentsMusk moves xAI, Grok onto Palantir turfVeteran analyst sends bold message on Palantir stock targetPalantir makes surprise move into weather On the AI vein, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports after Tuesday's close. The revenue estimate is $7.4 billion, up 27.2%. Earnings are projected at 40 cents, but down 42%. Eaton Corp (ETN) , maker of important gear used in AI applications, also reports Tuesday. Related: A country is ready to scrap all visas for Americans Wednesday brings in consumer stocks, especially McDonald's (MCD) and Walt Disney Co. (DIS) . Both should have lots to say about what consumers are telling them. Neither is expected to report big earnings and revenue gains. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) lead the Thursday earnings. The former has a big weight drug Zepound with more in the pipeline. Also reporting Uber Technologies (UBER) , DoorDash (DASH) , Shopify (SHOP) and Airbnb (ABNB) . Related: Costco has a serious credit card problem The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
27-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analyst sounds alarm on S&P 500 for August
Analyst sounds alarm on S&P 500 for August originally appeared on TheStreet. The stock market is on track to deliver another solid month of returns following its nearly 20% drop this spring. In July, the S&P 500 has returned 3% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq has rallied 3.6% so far, bringing the total returns for those indexes since April 9, when President Trump paused many tariffs, to 28% and 38% through July pretty impressive, especially since the S&P 500's annual return has been about 11.6% over the past 50 years. It remains to be seen if the S&P 500 can continue climbing in August to notch a fifth consecutive month of gains. The current rally may be getting a bit long in the tooth, given valuations have arguably stretched and some sentiment measures appear frothy. Long-time market analyst Jeffrey Hirsch, who is behind the closely watched Stock Trader's Almanac, also points out that August isn't necessarily kind to stocks. Stock market seasonal tailwinds ease in August Stocks move up and down for many reasons, including economic changes and revenue and earnings growth prospects. However, there's also a tendency for stocks to perform well in some months and poorly in others, something that the Stock Market Almanac has been tracking since Jeff Hirsh's father, Yale Hirsch, founded it in 1967. The Almanac is a treasure trove of historical probabilities, providing insight into historical index and sector performance Hirsh is credited with identifying the popular Santa Claus Rally, which holds that stocks tend to rise in the final five trading days of a year and the first two trading days of the following year, and the January Barometer, which suggests upside in January will lead to gains for the full year. One of the almanac's most closely considered trends is monthly average returns, and while stocks are historically solid performers in July, the backdrop isn't nearly as friendly in August. "August is the worst month in post-election years for DJIA and Russell 1000, 2nd worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000," wrote Jeff Hirsch on X. Looking back to 1950, major market indexes have posted negative returns in August, making August one of the worst months of the year for stock market returns. "Average declines in post-election year Augusts range from –0.5% to –1.5%. Each index has seen more declining post-election year Augusts than positive," says Hirsch. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac data, here are the average returns in August for each major index since 1950, unless otherwise noted: Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 1.5% S&P 500: Down 1.2%. NASDAQ (since 1971): Down 0.8%. Russell 1000 (since 1979): Down 1%. Russell 2000 (since 1979): Down 0.5%. The lackluster performance for these indexes in August ranks them either 11th or 12th worst out of all the months in the year. Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12th S&P 500: 11th NASDAQ: 11th Russell 1000: 12th Russell 2000: 11th. Valuation, the economy, and the Fed will impact what happens to stocks next The stock market has a lot going right for it recently. This spring's sell-off wrung out a lot of excess from stocks, setting the bar low enough so that anything shy of terrible news looks like a that to continue, however, we'll need things to continue to go just about perfectly, given the S&P 500's valuation is arguably stretched. The S&P 500's one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio, a common valuation measure that divides price by expected earnings, is 22.4, according to FactSet. That's about where it was in February, when stocks peaked before the tariff-driven sell-off. How the trade deals shake out with global partners like the EU will go a long way toward determining whether the economy will truly sidestep a recession. President Trump extended his pause on many reciprocal tariffs earlier in July, but set a hard stop date of August 1 for the pause. If trade deals fall short of expectations, rethinking how tariffs may impact inflation and the economy later this year could crimp the market rally. Similarly, most expect the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. So far, there's been little economic data to suggest that's necessary. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation, while sticky, was relatively timid in June at 2.7%. That's higher than the Fed wants, but still down from 3% in December. If unemployment picks up before September, the Fed may reduce rates by a quarter percentage point. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, which is about where it's trended since last summer. If the data remains status quo, with sticky inflation and a stable jobs market, the Fed may decide it can wait even longer before cutting. That may hurt stocks because lower rates fuel expansion and earnings growth. What does it all mean for investors? For most investors, month-to-month seasonality shouldn't impact their long-term investment plans. However, investors who consider themselves active day traders or position traders may want to pocket some of their recent profits to raise a little cash in case they get better buying opportunities if stocks swoon in August. After all, stocks rise over time but don't do it in a straight line. There are plenty of zigs and zags along the way. Analyst sounds alarm on S&P 500 for August first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 27, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 27, 2025, where it first appeared. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Low volatility, US dollar, tech 'super boom': Market Takeaways
Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre joins Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton to take a look at the biggest takeaways from Friday's trading session: the trend of low volatility, the US dollar ( driving markets more than crypto or commodities, and the tech sector "super boom." To hear more about the tech super boom, watch Jared's full Stocks in Translation interview with Stock Trader's Almanac editor in chief Jeffrey Hirsch here. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. in this bull market, we are seeing a lot of low volatility days, and that's what we're seeing right here, melt up. And I will show you the week's action in the S&P 500 just to reiterate what we saw after the closing bell. And by the way, let's just start with the sector action. All 11 sectors for these five days in the green. Interestingly, healthcare led. You don't see that very often, at least not lately. Then materials, industrials, real estate, financials, so an interesting mix, mostly cyclicals in there, but also the one defensive, which is healthcare. Tech the laggard. And you got to think what's going to happen next week once we have all those big tech earnings, but uh, we'll leave that for next week. And let's just check out the S&P 500 over these five days, and there are fresh records every single day, up 1.5%, and I was sitting down with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Traders Almanac. We're going to listen to him in a couple of minutes here, but I just wanted to add, when we have a low volatility period, and it's been almost 20 days now, when you get a break to the upside out of that, you usually see more upside. So, but if you get a break to the downside, well, you usually get more downside. So, whenever we break this low volatility spread, that's going to be top of mind for me, and it's probably going to take you, uh, it's going to be an indication of where the next part of the rally or the decline goes. What has been the big driver of the markets outside of stocks? It has been the dollar over the last 24 hours or so, and this was really interesting because I was watching that press conference, it wasn't really a press conference. President Trump was walking around the Fed building with Chair Powell, and there's a little bit of drama there, but the dollar was heading higher after that. And that's just based on some of the headlines that came out of the meeting that Trump is not going to replace Powell, at least for the time being. And so we saw this, it kind of melted up overnight, and the net result is over the last two days it was up about 33 basis points. Doesn't seem like a lot, but in currency terms, it's not nothing. And I'm not ascribing all of the downside in commodities and crypto to it. And let me just put the futures board on there, but I think it was, uh, it was definitely a factor. And so here's our commodities board, more red than green, looks like softs leading the way down, OJ and also coffee down the most, but also silver, palladium, and then sugar. And then looking at crypto, I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this, but Bitcoin kind of slid down below some support. Let me put the year to date on this so I can chart this for you. Here we go. So we did have a little bit of a range here, a break of the range, but in the big picture, you're to date, just barely looks like a blip on your screen there. We keep hearing, Jared, of a skinny bull, a skinny bull with low breath. What do we mean by that? Well, let's take a look at the tech super boom and, or think about it. And here's where I want to call out that Jeffrey Hirsch clip that we have prepared, sat down with us on Stocks and Translation. He's, of course, the editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, so he's very much into seasonality, but separately, he also tracks some of these super cycles, and these are multi-year cycles, sometimes multi-decadal cycles that we see in some different markets, especially tech-driven. Let's take a listen. This is all part of our longer-term outlook of what we call the super boom, um, which is based upon, uh, you know, inflation and in the end of more like peace time, and also, uh, technology. Culturally, what I call a culturally enabling paradigm shifting technology. This is something that Yale discovered back in the '70s where we see these moves after these postwar periods of 500% or more. Um, we came out with this in 2010, this forecast for Dow 38,820 when it was about 10,000. All right, so getting, getting back to your question, what is, what's with this skinny bull market? It's true. We've had less than half of the S&P 500 stocks really participating year-to-date. You're not seeing, uh, you're not seeing these wild, uh, bullishly internal stats like 70% above their 200-day moving average. And then you take a look at the smaller caps, and here's what I have on the screen here. I'm comparing the MAG 7 to the IWM, which is Russell 2000 ETF since the election. So basically since November 5th. And the Russell 2000 here is break even. Uh, it's barely been able to hold its water here. And of course, there's a big decline and it declined more than MAG 7, but here's the MAG 7, they're only back up to their highs. And even the MAG 7 are kind of struggling it seems to carry the market. The MAG 7 have really become Nvidia and Microsoft. Those have been the biggest two drivers. And I want to show you something else here, and I'm going to wrap this all up after a few more charts. Here's Ark Innovation Fund versus IShares Russell 2000 ETF. And you can see it has just rocketed past these old highs here. And so, and then here's Bitcoin versus small caps. And this is up even more, 68% versus a break even. So where is the strength coming from? You're not seeing it in the middle of the market. You're seeing it from some of the big players and then a bunch of fringey places like innovation, like disruption, like crypto and all these other smaller place. And we also meme stocks. I mean, we just did an entire segment or you just did an entire segment on it. That's where we're seeing the money flow. So you put it all together, there's a vast swath of stocks that are not participating here, but things look good if you're in the right places or if you're just in the major indices and you don't mind watching things go up just a little bit every day. Finally, what's on the Jared Blikre radar for next week? You know, I am interested in some of these big tech earnings. I do want to see what happens with Apple. I'm not counting Apple out by any means. Some of the others as well, but I also want to focus on the dollar. I'm going to see if it continues its ascent because Monday morning, I'm going to do, I'm going to show, I'm going to do August seasonality and we can talk about this too. Dollar typically rises at this point in the year, so that could be a contrary trade. And then meme stocks and all this fringey stuff I've been talking about. That's what I'm going to watch. A lot on deck. Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it. Later.
Bloomberg
30-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Stock Bulls Face June Reckoning After May's Meltup
One look at the calendar tells you that the frantic,seesaw rally in the US stock market this month is at risk of running out of steam, at least temporarily. Pricey valuations, muted demand for hedges and stretched investor positioning have left stocks vulnerable to a pullback, said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac.
