Latest news with #StoneFoxCapital
Business Insider
5 days ago
- Automotive
- Business Insider
‘Overpromising and Underdelivering,' Says Top Investor About Tesla Stock
Listen to Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk for just a few minutes, and one recognizes an individual with some seriously audacious goals. From space flight to autonomous driving, it is clear that Musk is not one to sit on his laurels and coast. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Indeed, it is the CEO's compulsive energy and incredible ambitions that has made him the richest person alive. Recently, however, Musk's salesmanship is brushing up against an unconvinced market when it comes to TSLA, and the company's share price has been dropping. After ending 2024 on a tear, TSLA is down over 20% for the year due to declining EV sales and a worsening brand for Musk himself. Can a robotaxi effort turn the narrative around? Count one top investor known by the pseudonym Stone Fox Capital unconvinced that this will happen anytime soon. 'Tesla, Inc.'s robotaxi launch remains underwhelming, with delays, regulatory issues, and only supervised services—not true autonomous robotaxis as promised,' explains the 5-star investor, who is among the top 3% of TipRanks' stock pros. Stone Fox notes that Tesla is having issues shifting from supervised to unsupervised driving, disappointing shareholders who are counting on the Musk-led firm to deliver the goods. The investor further details that Musk recently shared on the last earnings call that the company would 'probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.' Needless to say, Stone Fox does not believe this assertion is grounded in reality, pointing out that at present the company is only operating a handful of supervised taxis. Moreover, it is not just the future ambitions which the investor finds troubling, but the current operations as well. Stone Fox cites slumping EV sales, which the investor chalks up in large part to Musk's declining popularity. 'Tesla is facing a real scenario where market share is slipping all around the world after peaking 2 years ago,' adds Stone Fox. The stakes are high for the company, whose share price trades at very high multiples – a Forward 2026 Price-to-Earnings ratio of 128x – that assume earnings will be jumping up by 43%. 'The company has a massive opportunity ahead capable of moving the needle on the $1 trillion market cap, but if Tesla continues the path of overpromising and underdelivering, the stock is headed far lower,' concludes Stone Fox Capital, who rates TSLA a Sell. (To watch Stone Fox Capital's track record, click here) Wall Street presents a mixed picture when it comes TSLA. With 13 Buys, 15 Holds, and 8 Sells, TSLA has a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $305.37 implies minimal movement in the year ahead. (See TSLA stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights.
Yahoo
26-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
AppLovin Stock (APP) Selloff Offers High-Risk, High-Reward Options Trade
Disappointment remains an overriding theme for mobile technology specialist AppLovin (APP). Since early June, APP stock has declined by more than 22%, with Friday's price action being particularly severe. Fundamentally, investors have been rushing for the exits when it became clear that the underlying enterprise would not be joining the S&P 500. Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Inclusion in the S&P 500 is more than a badge of honor—it drives institutional buying as index funds rebalance. Many expected AppLovin (APP) to join the index, but when S&P Global opted not to make changes this quarter, the stock dropped about 8% on the news. The stock has clawed back some of its losses since last week. Despite this disappointment, analyst Stone Fox Capital views the exclusion as a temporary hiccup and remains focused on AppLovin's strong fundamentals, particularly the robust growth of its ad platform. For options traders, this dip has created a potentially attractive setup. With implied volatility elevated and sentiment temporarily shaken, long debit strategies could be relatively inexpensive. I remain short-term bullish on APP as a contrarian high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Although the fundamental and technical frameworks for APP stock are arguably bullish for contrarians, both methodologies lack specificity. While financial publications typically utilize probabilistic language, they often lack an empirical basis for their lexicon. However, the problem ultimately stems from the architecture of these standard methodologies. In technical analysis, practitioners often discuss patterns such as head-and-shoulders, cups, and handles. Unfortunately, none of the patterns in the technical realm are falsifiable. As such, empirical peer review is practically impossible. Fundamental analysis (along with technical analysis) suffers from the so-called 'non-stationarity dilemma' — a complex way of saying that the core measurement metric, such as share price or valuation ratios, changes temporally and contextually. Due to non-stationarity, any probabilistic analyses are derivative in nature, calculating outcomes across the entire distribution of the underlying dataset. This is akin to calculating a baseball player's batting average for the entire season. It's a factoid, which is a nice piece of information, but it doesn't tell you the batting average for the situation you're in right now. In other words, looking at how batters perform over the past 5-10 games is a better indicator of how they will perform in the next match (as opposed to looking at the seasonal average. To calculate insightful odds, one must utilize conditional probabilities, which calculate outcomes based on a specific subset of the data. This tells you the 'probability of the now.' The catch, though, is that conditional probabilities require the dataset to speak a unified language. To impose this unification or stationarity, a trader can convert past price data into market breadth — sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. Unlike raw share prices, market breadth is binary because it's really a representation of demand: it's either happening or it's not. As such, demand profiles can be categorized and quantified for the ultimate purpose of extracting empirical probabilities. With the introduction of the framework out of the way, APP stock in the past two months charted a '6-4-U' sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Generally speaking, APP performs better when the balance of cumulative sessions outnumbers distributive sessions over 10-week intervals. When the above sequence flashes, in 62.86% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 5.82%. On Friday, APP stock closed at $324.70. Since then, the stock has perked up and now trades around $335 per share. Should the implications of the 6-4-U sequence materialize as projected, the security could reach $343.60 in short order, perhaps within a week or two. If the bulls maintain control of the market, APP could potentially breach $350 within three weeks. What makes this setup so intriguing is that, as a baseline, the chance that APP stock will rise on any given week is only 51.6%. To extend the baseball analogy, the 6-4-U sequence presents a favorable matchup for bullish traders. It doesn't guarantee a successful outcome, of course. However, if this were a ballgame, the manager would give the green light to swing the bat. Arguably, the most aggressive multi-leg options strategy that still falls within the realm of rationality is the 340/345 bull call spread expiring July 11. This transaction involves buying the $340 call and simultaneously selling the $345 call, resulting in a net debit paid of $240 (the maximum loss on the trade). If APP stock rises through the short strike price (345) at expiration, the maximum reward is $260, a payout of over 108%. Turning to Wall Street, APP stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 16 Buys, three Holds, and zero Sell ratings over the past three months. The average APP stock price target is $503.29, implying ~50% upside potential over the coming year. While AppLovin has been trending sharply downward since its S&P 500 snub, the red ink could present a discounted opportunity for intrepid speculators. Using conditional probabilities after layering share price data into binary market breadth sequences, the trader can calculate higher-than-average long-side odds for APP stock. With this statistical edge, one can apply the leverage of a bull spread to potentially extract a large payout. Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
22-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
‘Still Not a Bargain,' Says Top Investor About Nike Stock
'Just Do It,' goes the motto that Nike (NYSE:NKE) made a household catchphrase. With its branded 'Swoosh' and world-famous spokespeople, it is no stretch to argue that Nike helped to build the premium shoe market — one that grew by leaps and bounds earlier this decade. Confident Investing Starts Here: Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Indeed, the COVID years saw a major spike in Nike's footwear sales – from $23.3 billion in 2020 to over $35 billion in 2023 – though growth has been slowing of late. Last year saw footwear revenues decrease slightly, and its share price has fallen almost 40% during the past twelve months. This week, Nike will be releasing its FQ4 2025 results, and consensus estimates are not exactly bullish. Analysts are expecting total revenues of $10.7 billion – down 15% year-over-year – while a projected EPS of $0.12 would represent an 89% decrease year-over-year. One top investor known by the pseudonym Stone Fox Capital thinks that the growing competition will continue to present stiff resistance going forward. 'Nike remains overvalued despite a significant price decline, with the market underestimating downside risks and ongoing competitive pressures,' explains the 5-star investor, who is among the top 3% of TipRanks' stock pros. The biggest challenge for Nike going forward will be the growing competition, asserts Stone Fox Capital, citing On Holding and HOKA as two of the biggest threats. For instance, ONON's On Running is expected to grow revenues by 40% this year. Still, NKE is trading 'at multiples above the market,' despite forecasts of stagnating growth going forward. Stone Fox Capital spots quite a disconnect – one that the market has yet to take fully into account. 'Nike should be viewed based on the readily available data of a massive athletic footwear company that hasn't grown in years facing immense competition,' adds Stone Fox Capital. Stone Fox Capital is urging investors to pay attention to upcoming guidance for the next quarter, which the investor predicts will be a 'horrible' forecast. Needless to say, Stone Fox Capital does not believe that 'Just Do It' is good advice for would-be investors at present. 'The stock might be down substantially from the all-time highs a few years ago, but Nike isn't actually trading like the business is under pressure,' concludes Stone Fox Capital, who rates NKE a Sell. (To watch Stone Fox Capital's track record, click here) Wall Street is overall positive when it comes to Nike, though not overwhelmingly. With 12 Buy and 11 Hold ratings, NKE is a consensus Moderate Buy. Its 12-month average price target of $71.24 has an upside of ~19%. (See NKE stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights.
Globe and Mail
05-06-2025
- Automotive
- Globe and Mail
‘Too Soon to Celebrate,' Says Investor About Tesla Stock
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have had the June 12th Robotaxi date circled on their calendar for months by now, and the excitement is growing as the day approaches. Confident Investing Starts Here: Though the company has been teasing the idea of self-driving cars for over a decade, its track record has not totally matched the hyperbole of CEO Elon Musk. Indeed, Musk stated way back in 2013 that Tesla was aiming to have the technology to drive 90% of all miles by 2016. Flash forward to the present day, and what was once revolutionary has now become a battlefield full of fierce competition, and Tesla has now clearly fallen behind Google's Waymo for primacy in the self-driving market. Waymo is now operating some 250,000 weekly trips, and has staked out 27% of the local rideshare market in San Francisco. Can the Robotaxi event succeed in flipping the narrative back to Tesla? One investor, known by the pseudonym, Stone Fox Capital advises investors not to pop the champagne bottles just yet. 'Tesla already appears valued based on initial robotaxi success, and this doesn't appear guaranteed,' states the 5-star investor. Stone Fox notes that TSLA is so far behind Waymo that the term 'taking a Waymo' might soon become part of everyday language. Launching a small 10-car pilot program in Austin, the investor argues, isn't exactly the game-changer some investors are hoping for. 'The big risk is that a robotaxi delay continues to allow Waymo to control the market while the robotaxi service launch appears already priced into the stock,' adds Stone Fox. Moreover, some of Musk's recent comments – such as the fact that the 'same strengths and weaknesses' of human drivers will be present with Tesla's FSD technology – are not exactly inspiring confidence. While Stone Fox isn't discounting Tesla's potential to eventually rake in the dollars, the investor doesn't see that happening anytime soon. 'Investors can likely buy Tesla at a lower price once the far-flung excitement disappears, even if the company is on the path to a successful robotaxi business,' concludes Stone Fox Capital, but for now the investor's advice is to steer clear of this one and Sell. (To watch Stone Fox Capital's track record, click here) Meanwhile, Wall Street is firmly divided on this one. With 16 Buy, 10 Hold, and 11 Sell recommendations, TSLA has a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. The average price target of $282.70 suggests about 18% downside from current levels – an outlook Stone Fox would likely endorse. (See TSLA stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
Globe and Mail
26-03-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
‘This Isn't a Fairy Tale,' Says Investor About Intel Stock
If life were a fairy tale, Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) new CEO would take the reins and, with a wave of a wand, spark a transformation that lifts the Silicon Valley pioneer back to the pinnacle of the tech industry. Light Up your Portfolio with Spark: Easily identify stocks' risks and opportunities. Discover stocks' market position with detailed competitor analyses. That's the hope riding on Lip-Bu Tan. The new INTC head does have the credentials to perform impressive feats of corporate strength. He previously led Cadence Design Systems shares to a 3,200% increase during his time helming the company between 2009 to 2021. So, is a similar turnaround in the cards for Intel? According to investor Stone Fox Capital, the script may be exciting – but the plot twist won't arrive anytime soon. 'INTC stock is likely to struggle in the near term as the new CEO implements disruptive changes,' predicts the 5-star investor. And the hurdles are significant. Intel is lagging badly in the AI GPU race, and its foundry business has been struggling massively. Stone Fox describes the company's operations as such a 'mess' that recent rumors suggested Intel might break itself apart just to regain focus. Tan, however, is wasting no time. Reports suggest he's planning on making significant changes to the company's chip manufacturing, shifting Intel's AI approach, and cutting INTC's workforce. While Stone Fox notes that Intel has over 3x the amount of workers that Nvidia and AMD each employ, the investor believes that slashing the head count will not exactly entice would-be talent to join INTC's ranks. And even with these moves in play, a turnaround won't be quick. According to Stone Fox, real progress will take time – meaning investors shouldn't count on a near-term rally. 'Intel probably has another 18+ months of restructuring before the stock becomes interesting from the turnaround view,' adds the investor. The company's relatively low valuations are not enough to attract Stone Fox, who foresees more losses before any potential gains. Therefore, the investor believes this is one to stay away from at the present time. 'The stock likely gets worse before getting better because the new CEO isn't a miracle worker,' concludes Stone Fox, assigning INTC shares a Sell rating. (To watch Stone Fox Capital's track record, click here) Wall Street has yet to make a determination regarding the new CEO. Its 27 Hold ratings vastly outnumber its 1 Buy and 4 Sell ratings, giving INTC a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. INTC's 12-month average price target of $23 implies a modest 5% downside in the year ahead. (See INTC stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment. Questions or Comments about the article? Write to editor@
