Latest news with #StraitofHormuz
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why diversifying risk management is 'key' right now
Vest co-founder and president Jeff Chang joins Market Catalysts with Julie Hyman to discuss investor strategy amid the current bull market, target buffer exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and how to hedge your portfolio against future volatility. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. We've been having this sort of discussion and debate about the under the surface signs. What do you see? Yeah. I mean, if you look, like, you know, the stock market's at all time highs and a lot of it is, and if you think about overall risks in the market, right? Like, you see anything from, um, you know, are the AI mega cap stocks overvalued at current PE levels. And you think about a lot of consensus is a lot of the earnings growth associated with AI and the mega caps have already been priced in, right? Are we at that level that we're already there? And then on top of that, you have a lot of other risks that are there. Geopolitical risks, like if you think about, um, you know, Israel, Iran, 20% of the oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran. Uh, what are those impacts and how does that affect the overall economy? And then tariffs, right? Um, I know a lot of people are largely, the market has has anticipated that there were going to be some resolution. I mean we we'd have seen, uh, you know, kind of like you explained today, the Japan deal that that occurs. That gives a little bit of hope, but that's still fundamental risk in the market and we're at all time highs. So this is where, you know, we've seen a lot of our clients saying that, "Hey, um, what are, where do we position our portfolio at all time highs?" And so a lot of times I say, uh, you know, when is the best time to buy protection or hedge yourself? Is it when the markets are at all time highs or when they've already dropped, let's say a 15, 20% pullback? It's like, it's like buying insurance. You don't buy flood insurance after the flood, right? And this is why we've seen an explosion and a really, uh, increase in interest in like, let's say, buffer type products or hedge type products and investments because of the way the market is shaping up. Because it is kind of the moment in which you actually want to hedge because, um, you know, there is a still a lot of fundamental risk within the within the market. And so, um, how then does this give them exposure, but try and limit the downside? So, in most buffer strategies, they, you get exposure to, you know, like, let's say a broader index or any, any type of underlying, but in most cases it would be like, let's say something like S&P. And if it were to pull back, let's say 10, 15%, uh, these strategies would protect, let's say the, uh, the first 15% or first 10%. Um, the reason that is is is that, you know, the most likely drawdowns in the overall broader markets are between, you know, 10 and 15% when you historically look at market drawdowns. Now, um, the way, uh, in exchange for that downside protection, you're giving up some upside. So let's say, Well, that's what I was going to say. I mean, stocks, these, all of these obstacles that you mentioned, Yep. they've been around now for a few months and the stock market keeps making new records. Yep. So you give up a little bit of that upside if you go, you know, if you put, but you're not, I assume you would not recommend to somebody that they put everything into No, not at all. Yeah, absolutely not. this kind of. No, not at all. Yeah, absolute, absolutely not. I think what's key here is the ability to, for an investor to diversify their risk management. Because traditionally, when you think about it, you have your traditional 60, 40 portfolio, right? Where the thought process is, "Hey, you know what? Put some of my wealth in stocks and bonds." But here's the challenge right now. Unless you were managing money 40 years ago, you were not managing money during times of inflation. What we saw in 2022 is as interest rates go up, both stocks and bonds fell in 2022, right? You could have mixed your stocks and bonds any way you wanted in 2022, you were down. This caught a lot of people by surprise. So the question then becomes is, what in your portfolio will save you if inflation rears its head again? And if you think about what is the risk of inflation, we're already starting to see some of the trickle effects of tariffs into, you know, the inflation numbers. Uh, and then also what about wage growth? That's been really pushing upwards into inflation numbers. And then like I said, geopolitical risk, right? If, you know, 20% of oil is coming through the Strait of Hormuz, if oil prices and you know, oil goes to 90 a barrel, you're going to see headline numbers, like headline CPI really spike. Then the Fed has to act. And the market, while they baked in, let's say a 75 basis point cut later this year, then that starts to come into question that could really affect equity markets. Not only equities, but also bonds as well. And this is why we think hedging, which has a, the great thing about hedging is it's perfectly negatively correlated to whatever you're hedging as opposed to relying on the negative correlation between stocks and bonds where traditionally, uh, you know, when stocks go down, you have this hope that bonds go up, right? That starts to break down in certain environments, especially when you start to have inflation. Yes. Well, on the flip side, those things might not have, right? In other words, it looks less likely now than it did a month ago that the Strait of Hormuz is going to be interrupted. And, you know, even if you see inflation, I mean, and then what role does gold play in a portfolio also if you're trying to hedge against inflation? Yeah. And I would say not just gold, but also like things such as like Bitcoin and so on and so forth. They're all really interesting things. Um, and it's not, not to say it will happen. It's saying that if it does, what do you have in place to defend against that? And that's what's great about, you know, let's say, just even taking buffer strategies as an example. You're still participating in the market, right? That's the thing is that like getting people to stay invested is one of the most important things. And we find that, you know, downside hedging can be a really big benefit to, you know, everyday investors as far as keeping them invested, especially with these types of risks on the horizon and we're at all time highs. Yes. Related Videos Trading day takeaways: Nvidia record, US dollar moves, oil pops Investors in the housing market: What you need to know Boeing Q2 earnings preview: Tariffs & Air India crash in focus Pimco's Forgash: High-Yield Market at Highest Quality in Years Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Melden Sie sich an, um Ihr Portfolio aufzurufen. Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten
Zawya
22-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
UAE's Fujairah first-half 2025 bunker sales drop 5% from 2024
SINGAPORE - Sales of bunker fuel softened at the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah port in the first half of 2025, falling 5% from the same period in 2024, data from the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) showed. The emirate of Fujairah, located on the east coast of the UAE near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, is a major bunkering port in the region and a key refuelling point for tankers taking crude on long voyages out of the Gulf. Bunker volumes from January-June this year totalled 3.7 million cubic metres (about 3.6 million metric tons), compared with 3.9 million cubic metres in the same period last year, based on FOIZ data published by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Sales in June declined to a four-month low of 563,000 cubic metres, down 8% from May. Ships were operating more cautiously in the Gulf last month after tensions between Iran and Israel flared, before a ceasefire was reached. Some traders had expected bunker volumes to taper off slightly. While most ships continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz last month, they tried to minimise time spent in the region due to safety concerns. However, prior to the recent round of geopolitical tensions, refuelling demand was already tepid for most of this year, some Dubai-based trading sources noted. Bunker price differentials to benchmark quotes stayed weak for both low-sulphur and high-sulphur bunker grades this year, sources said. Volumes for both grades also dropped year-on-year in the first half, calculations based on FOIZ data showed. Fujairah bunker sales by month, in cubic metres: 2025 Total bunker sales (minus lubricants) M-o-M Y-o-Y 180cst LSFO 380cst LSFO MGO LSMGO 380cst HSFO Lubricants Jan 628,663 3.7% -6.8% 2,141 403,717 79 37,635 185,091 4,351 Feb 554,117 -11.9% -12.5% 702 382,303 341 28,176 142,595 4,183 Mar 639,811 15.5% -8.7% 1,195 432,560 128 37,788 168,140 4,991 Apr 669,378 4.6% 4.8% 885 443,509 307 35,289 189,388 5,296 May 614,296 -8.2% -0.2% 9,972 407,208 662 31,572 164,882 4,454 Jun * 563,007 -8.3% -7.8% 7,356 361,332 271 33,942 160,106 4,054 Data source: Fujairah Oil Industry Zone data published by S&P Global Commodity Insights (1 cubic metre = 6.29 barrels) (1 metric ton = 6.35 barrels for fuel oil) (Reporting by Jeslyn Lerh; Editing by Jamie Freed)
The National
15-07-2025
- Business
- The National
Towards a peaceful and stable Middle East
Throughout the Middle East, pundits and public alike are wondering how the changes that the region is witnessing may affect the fragile existing balance of power and whether they can open the door, finally, for an era of peaceful co-existence and prosperity. It is well established that the strategic weight of our region is not confined to politics or security. It also lies in its increasingly pivotal role in the global economy. Key maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, serve as vital arteries of global trade and energy supplies. At the same time, many Arab Gulf states are investing heavily in emerging industries such as renewable energy and advanced technologies. It is clear that bringing peace and stability to the Middle East is no longer a regional aspiration, but a global imperative intertwined with international prosperity. For the Arab League, a new strategic reality in the Middle East can only come about when a true vision for peace is implemented. The vision we have in mind is one based on the two-state solution: restoration of Palestinian rights for independence and dignity, followed by the implementation of the engagement of peace outlined in the Arab Peace Initiative, thus opening the door for an era of true peace and stability in the region. But regional security has been viewed differently by various parties in the region. For the Arabs, based on Arab Summit resolutions, the notion of regional security has always been based on five major pillars: a) An end to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the emergence of an independent contiguous Palestine, b) Respect of sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of States, c) The establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region, d) Relentless combatting of terrorism and the preservation of nation-states, and e) Security guarantees for all and shared interests as applicable. From an Arab perspective, while all these elements are essential for reaching a viable and sustainable formula for regional security, we view this equation as a win-win for all parties. Unfortunately, we cannot say the same about the perspective offered by other parties in our region, such as Israel. For years, and in particular after the '93 Oslo accords, the concept of regional security for Israel was based primarily on achieving military and security superiority while 'postponing indefinitely' any viable solution for the Palestinian question and without producing any real vision for achieving just and comprehensive peace. Since October 7, 2023, it appears that 'postponing indefinitely' a solution to the Palestinian question was replaced by 'eliminating' it altogether. Achieving a sustainable peace requires addressing broader geopolitical dynamics, particularly those involving Iran Driven by its extreme right-wing forces and its advancement in the past two decades, such a vision is a considerable impediment for peace and prosperity in the region. Enabling those forces to continue on such a path is nothing but a recipe for continued conflict and instability. Such a zero-sum equation with no room for a win-win formula is no salvation for our region and certainly meets no aspiration for peaceful co-existence in it. At the same time, achieving a sustainable peace requires addressing broader geopolitical dynamics, particularly those involving Iran. Over the past few years, several Arab countries have taken steps toward de-escalation and restoring dialogue with Tehran, aiming to establish a framework of mutual respect and non-interference. This approach must be preserved and reinforced, as it offers the potential to reduce tensions and prevent wider regional confrontation. For peace to take root, all regional actors must abandon policies of provocation and ideological dominance, and instead commit to principles of co-existence and balanced co-operation. I acknowledge that in my numerous encounters throughout the Arab World, and in particular after witnessing the horrors committed by Israel in Gaza through 21 months of genocidal war, I often reach the unhappy conclusion that many Arabs, in particular the youth, have ceased to believe that peace will be the order of the day in our region in the foreseeable future and that it is somehow condemned to perpetual instability and turmoil. The brief moments of peace of the 1990s seem like such distant memories. It's impossible to envisage any possibility of reliving them. All powerful players, in the region and outside it, should try and change such desperate views, if we are to seek a better and more prosperous future for the coming generations. To my understanding, a number of Arab countries who play a major role in the region have expressed readiness to engage in meaningful discussions on the matter. However, in the absence of an Israeli willingness to engage on a viable path for peace, it can be an exercise in futility. The hope remains that an active and motivated US president may intervene to tip the balance not only for the sake of morality and law, but also for shared interests and a win-for-all formula which addresses the concerns of all parties. It is still possible. Let us not waste the opportunity.
Japan Times
15-07-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
Energy policy debate falls dormant in Upper House election despite growing risk
Discussions among political parties in Japan on securing a stable energy supply have been slow in the lead-up to Sunday's election for the House of Councilors, despite a recent surge in risks to energy security. Rising tensions in the Middle East following a recent U.S. strike on nuclear facilities in Iran have fueled concerns that the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for crude oil transportation, may be closed. A Strait of Hormuz closure would deal a blow to Japan's energy security as the country is heavily reliant on imports for fossil fuels. Opposition parties are divided over whether Japan should utilize nuclear power. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, a proponent of nuclear power, has avoided explicitly mentioning its stance in its campaign pledges for the race for the upper chamber of the country's parliament. All parties are in favor of using renewable energy, but the level of enthusiasm differs by party. The government adopted at a Cabinet meeting in February a new basic energy plan that shifted away from its previous policy of reducing dependence on nuclear power as much as possible. The new policy said the country will make maximum use of nuclear and renewable energy as power sources that do not emit carbon dioxide. The shift reflects an expected surge in electricity demand, driven by the construction of new data centers and semiconductor plants as well as the expansion of existing facilities, amid the growing use of generative artificial intelligence. The Organization for Cross-Regional Coordination of Transmission Operators, which coordinates electricity supply and demand across Japan, expects power demand in fiscal 2034 to grow by 5.8% from fiscal 2024 to 852.4 billion kilowatt-hours. In last year's election for the House of Representatives, the lower parliamentary chamber, the LDP pledged to make maximum use of nuclear power and other energy sources that contribute significantly to decarbonization. But the party has avoided clearly mentioning this stance for the upcoming election, instead saying that it will "do everything possible to secure power capacity and work on the stable supply of energy." The LDP's decision not to position the maximum use of nuclear power as a key part of its campaign vows has made nuclear policy a relatively minor point of contention between the ruling and opposition camps. Opposition parties are divided over nuclear power policy and have varying stances regarding renewable energy policy. The Democratic Party for the People pledges to actively utilize nuclear power and renewable energy, for which Japan has less dependence on imports, as part of its vows to boost energy self-sufficiency to 50%. Meanwhile, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan calls for not allowing construction and expansions of nuclear power plants, and it seeks to fully source power from renewable energy by 2050. It pledges ¥200 trillion investments, including ¥50 trillion in public funds, for renewable energy and energy conservation measures. The Japanese Communist Party has touted a "zero nuclear power plants" policy, pushing for a full reliance on renewable energy for power generation by fiscal 2040. Reiwa Shinsengumi is aiming for an immediate abolition of nuclear power plants. Although power generation using renewable energy sources does not emit CO2, electricity output can be swayed by the weather and is unstable. Opposition parties' pledges are not seen as sufficiently presenting a solution to this. The government is aiming to raise the proportion of nuclear energy in the country's power supply mix from the current 8.5% to about 20% in fiscal 2040, and to increase energy self-sufficiency from below 20% to around 30% to 40%. But achieving these targets would require the operation of over 30 nuclear reactors, far more than the 14 currently in operation. Some parties, including the DPP and Nippon Ishin no Kai, are calling for the construction of next-generation nuclear reactors. But interparty debate necessary for clearing the high hurdle to achieving this is nowhere in sight.
Reuters
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Exclusive: Iran made preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz, US sources say
WASHINGTON, July 1 (Reuters) - The Iranian military loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf last month, a move that intensified concerns in Washington that Tehran was gearing up to blockade the Strait of Hormuz following Israel's strikes on sites across Iran, according to two U.S. officials. The previously unreported preparations, which were detected by U.S. intelligence, occurred some time after Israel launched its initial missile attack against Iran on June 13, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters. The loading of the mines - which have not been deployed in the strait - suggests that Tehran may have been serious about closing one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, a move that would have escalated an already-spiraling conflict and severely hobbled global commerce. About one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz and a blockage would likely have spiked world energy prices. Global benchmark oil prices have instead fallen more than 10% since the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, driven in part by relief that the conflict did not trigger significant disruptions in the oil trade. On June 22, shortly after the U.S. bombed three of Iran's key nuclear sites in a bid to cripple Tehran's nuclear program, Iran's parliament reportedly backed a measure to block the strait. That decision was not binding, and it was up to Iran's Supreme National Security Council to make a final decision on the closure, Iran's Press TV said at the time. Iran has over the years threatened to close the strait but has never followed through on that threat. Reuters was not able to determine precisely when during the Israel-Iran air war Tehran loaded the mines, which - if deployed - would have effectively stopped ships from moving through the key thoroughfare. It is also unclear if the mines have since been unloaded. The sources did not disclose how the United States determined that the mines had been put on the Iranian vessels, but such intelligence is typically gathered through satellite imagery, clandestine human sources or a combination of both methods. Asked for comment about Iran's preparations, a White House official said: "Thanks to the President's brilliant execution of Operation Midnight Hammer, successful campaign against the Houthis, and maximum pressure campaign, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, freedom of navigation has been restored, and Iran has been significantly weakened." The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Iranian mission at the United Nations also did not respond to requests for comment. The two officials said the U.S. government has not ruled out the possibility that loading the mines was a ruse. The Iranians could have prepared the mines to convince Washington that Tehran was serious about closing the strait, but without intending to do so, the officials said. Iran's military could have also simply been making necessary preparations in the event that Iran's leaders gave the order. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It is 21 miles (34 km) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just 2 miles wide in either direction. OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia. Qatar, among the world's biggest liquefied natural gas exporters, sends almost all of its LNG through the strait. Iran also exports most of its crude through the passage, which in theory limits Tehran's appetite to shut the strait. But Tehran has nonetheless dedicated significant resources to making sure it can do so if it deems necessary. As of 2019, Iran maintained more than 5,000 naval mines, which could be rapidly deployed with the help of small, high-speed boats, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimated at the time. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, is charged with protecting commerce in the region. The U.S. Navy has typically kept four mine countermeasure vessels, or MCM vessels, in Bahrain, though those ships are being replaced by another type of vessel called a littoral combat ship, or LCS, which also has anti-mine capabilities. All anti-mine ships had been temporarily removed from Bahrain in the days leading up to the U.S. strikes on Iran in anticipation of a potential retaliatory attack on Fifth Fleet headquarters. Ultimately, Iran's immediate retaliation was limited to a missile attack on a U.S. military base in nearby Qatar. U.S. officials, however, have not ruled out further retaliatory measures by Iran.
