18-07-2025
B2B Forecasting Is A Guess; Responsiveness Is A Strategy
Nikos Lemanis is Strategy Director at Luxid Group, an award-winning, agile team of creatives, technologists and marketing strategists.
We find ourselves in unpredictable times, and for B2B marketers, this presents a significant challenge.
Until recently, B2B was enjoying a long period of relative stability, coupled with the kind of advancements in channels, technologies and data that gave marketers ever-increasing capabilities to do their jobs. But now, macroeconomic factors such as global political instability and volatile tariff policies are increasingly affecting supply chains, market demand and the shape of the competitive landscape.
And behavioral factors such as complex and increasingly AI-powered self-service buyer journeys are impacting the quality of, and access to, valuable audience insights and purchase intent data. The technological advancements that once provided a level of certainty for B2B marketers are now arguably contributing to instability.
All of this means that we're seeing an increase in factors that B2B marketers simply can't control, and these directly affect their ability to forward-plan with the level of certainty they have taken for granted for many years. This isn't a temporary blip. The rules have changed, and they aren't changing back. This means that the market has to rethink the long-established practice of annual planning. The traditional model of annual marketing budgets is based on an outdated belief in predictability: a series of assumptions about the coming 12 months that rely on the stability of past experiences, analysis of current trends and availability of resources.
Although many businesses still cling to this well-worn path, the time has come for B2B marketers to pivot away from trying to rigidly forecast the future and toward building systems and processes that respond rapidly to it.
Rigidity Is The New Enemy Of B2B Marketing
Rigidity is the key word here. It's not the 12-month planning cycle itself that's problematic; it's the built-in rigidity that so often comes with it. Rigidity locks in spend, regardless of shifting returns. It promotes inertia and prevents the agility to see or act on timely opportunities. And it leads to delays in reacting to downturns, crises or changes in the market.
There are some very clear examples of this in B2C. For over a decade, Netflix publicly resisted the idea of including advertising in its streaming platform. But in 2021, its subscriber and revenue growth slowed. The company's response was to announce a new ad-supported tier and launch it within six months. It was a remarkably fast timeline for a major platform shift and a brave reversal of strategy. And it worked. Advertisers have been eager to get on board, and the tier is popular with users. It's been estimated that the company's advertising business could earn $10 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
The lesson? Be prepared and able to pivot quickly and decisively from some of your core beliefs and strategies. And be prepared to act when your assumptions break.
'Flexibility And Agility' Is The New Mantra Of B2B Marketing
Most businesses don't have a business model like Netflix that could demand such a seismic shift, but it illustrates the level of flexibility and agility that all businesses should aim for in their planning model.
So, what does embracing flexibility and agility in B2B planning look like in practice?
At the most fundamental level, make sure you have access to actionable data to aid your decision making, and that your budget review cadence is more than a box-ticking exercise.
At a campaign level, include built-in flexibility that is tied to performance data, with realistic allowances for downtime if and when a change of direction is needed.
Create cross-functional budget pools that allow marketers to pull funds based on evolving priorities. You could even consider broadening this to promote collaborative budgets with sales, IT and customer success.
Embrace the unknown and put the pieces in place to make fast and accurate decisions about how to apply your budget. It's no longer about predicting the path. It's about building the muscle to change direction without losing momentum.
Of course, certain elements—your brand—need to retain consistency. Agility doesn't equal a lack of identity. Although you may see the need to change what you align your brand with over time, quickly pivoting its essence and ethos is rarely the way to do that effectively.
The entire business must become comfortable with the fact that rigid 12-month planning is guesswork and that it's not conducive to success. Responsiveness needs to be institutionalized, and there are ways to promote that and to overcome the doubts of stakeholders who are uncomfortable with the shift.
Clearly document responsive budgeting in your plans to show that it stems from robust thinking rather than a lack of confidence or foresight. Include scenario planning ('what happens to this budget if ...'), regular review and reallocation windows, and exactly how you will govern flexibility responsibly. Directly incorporate the finance team into your agile planning and reporting processes.
Get It Right, And You Will Have More Control
Your marketing team might perceive that this shift comes with a loss of control or focus. You will need to take them along on the journey. Show them that, through continuous monitoring and optimization, they will actually have more control, with additional freedom to pivot and take advantage of timely opportunities that move the needle.
This evolution isn't just a process shift; it's a mental shift. And it's about managing the organizational expectations that stop you from breaking from the status quo.
Real strategy now lives in how fast you can adapt, not how well you can guess. And success won't belong to the best planners; it will belong to those who have a robust mechanism for responsiveness.
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