Latest news with #StrengthInNumbers
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New poll shows Trump's approval rating is underwater on nearly every issue
President Donald Trump has returned to Washington, D.C. from the first state visit of his second term in office, with the White House hailing the supposed successes of his trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. While the communications team has been highlighting how productive the tightly scheduled week was, the president nevertheless comes back to a slew of domestic issues to tackle, including his 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' currently stalled in committee in the House of Representatives. He also returns to some poor approval ratings that his team will doubtless hope are lifted off the back of his trip. The latest polling from Strength in Numbers/Verasight may make for some tough reading for President Trump, showing him underwater with American voters on every single issue, with the exception of border security. According to the poll, 40 percent of people either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's overall handling of the presidency, while 56 percent disapprove, split by the same modifiers, putting him 16 points underwater. In terms of specific policy areas, Trump has a net minus 32-point rating on prices and inflation in the poll, and a minus 17-point net rating on jobs and the economy, areas in which he has historically had his highest marks. Americans are also very dissatisfied with his approach to trade, putting him minus 21 points underwater. Further, he scored minus 20 on government funding and social programs, and minus 17 on healthcare. For foreign policy, he came out 16 points under, while in education and managing the federal government workforce, he is down minus 15 points and minus 12 points, respectively. His tough stance on immigration and deportations also sees him down, minus two points and minus six points. It's only on border security where Trump has a net positive approval rating of 10 points, with 52 percent approving of his record, and 42 percent disapproving. The poll was conducted between May 1 and May 6 among 1,000 adults. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percent. Politics is a fickle game, and there are still 17 months before the congressional midterm elections in 2026. A run of bad numbers could lead to a shift in policy by the administration, though currently there is a determination to press ahead and what appears to be a firm belief in that strategy. In the same poll, respondents were asked if the election were held today, in a generic congressional ballot, would they vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate. It's a key question given that a shift in control could hinder or halt the Trump policy agenda. While a sizeable chunk, 12 percent, said they did not know or weren't sure, 41 percent named the Republicans, and 47 percent opted for the Democrats, giving them a healthy lead. This tracks with other polling data that generally report a Democratic advantage that could flip the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. While most polls give the Democrats a one or two percent lead, Newsnation's latest survey puts it at five percent, and Fox News at seven percent. The RealClearPolitics polling average has the Democrats ahead by two percent, 45.5 percent to 43.5 percent in a generic congressional vote.
The Independent
17-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
New poll shows Trump's approval rating is underwater on nearly every issue
President Donald Trump has returned to Washington, D.C. from the first state visit of his second term in office, with the White House hailing the supposed successes of his trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. While the communications team has been highlighting how productive the tightly scheduled week was, the president nevertheless comes back to a slew of domestic issues to tackle, including his 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' currently stalled in committee in the House of Representatives. He also returns to some poor approval ratings that his team will doubtless hope are lifted off the back of his trip. The latest polling from Strength in Numbers/Verasight may make for some tough reading for President Trump, showing him underwater with American voters on every single issue, with the exception of border security. According to the poll, 40 percent of people either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's overall handling of the presidency, while 56 percent disapprove, split by the same modifiers, putting him 16 points underwater. In terms of specific policy areas, Trump has a net minus 32-point rating on prices and inflation in the poll, and a minus 17-point net rating on jobs and the economy, areas in which he has historically had his highest marks. Americans are also very dissatisfied with his approach to trade, putting him minus 21 points underwater. Further, he scored minus 20 on government funding and social programs, and minus 17 on healthcare. For foreign policy, he came out 16 points under, while in education and managing the federal government workforce, he is down minus 15 points and minus 12 points, respectively. His tough stance on immigration and deportations also sees him down, minus two points and minus six points. It's only on border security where Trump has a net positive approval rating of 10 points, with 52 percent approving of his record, and 42 percent disapproving. The poll was conducted between May 1 and May 6 among 1,000 adults. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percent. Politics is a fickle game, and there are still 17 months before the congressional midterm elections in 2026. A run of bad numbers could lead to a shift in policy by the administration, though currently there is a determination to press ahead and what appears to be a firm belief in that strategy. In the same poll, respondents were asked if the election were held today, in a generic congressional ballot, would they vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate. It's a key question given that a shift in control could hinder or halt the Trump policy agenda. While a sizeable chunk, 12 percent, said they did not know or weren't sure, 41 percent named the Republicans, and 47 percent opted for the Democrats, giving them a healthy lead. This tracks with other polling data that generally report a Democratic advantage that could flip the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. Newsnation 's latest survey puts it at five percent, and Fox News at seven percent. The RealClearPolitics polling average has the Democrats ahead by two percent, 45.5 percent to 43.5 percent in a generic congressional vote.
Newsweek
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Kamala Harris Would Beat Donald Trump if Election Held Again: Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Kamala Harris might beat Donald Trump in the popular vote if the 2024 presidential election was held today, a new poll suggests. The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, conducted May 1 to 6, found 47 percent of respondents who would vote in a hypothetical do-over backed Democrat Harris, compared to 42 percent for Republican Trump. Including those who would not vote, Harris' share of the vote dropped to 40 percent against Trump's 36 percent. The poll was conducted among 1,000 adults and had a margin of error of 3.2 percent. Trump beat Harris by 2 points in the popular vote in November 2024's election, with 50 percent to her 48 percent. He won the electoral vote, which decides the winner, by a resounding 312 to 226. Several polls before the election had either a tie or Harris on top in the popular vote. Former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a keynote address at the Palace Hotel on April 30, 2025 in San Francisco, California, and U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he walks to board Air Force... Former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a keynote address at the Palace Hotel on April 30, 2025 in San Francisco, California, and U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he walks to board Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on May 12, 2025. More Justin Sullivan//AFP In the hypothetical rematch, Harrisheld a significant advantage among those who say they did not vote in 2024. Among these, 36 percent of respondents backed Harris and 22 percent voting for Trump. Forty-three percent of non-voters surveyed said they still would not vote in 2024. Limiting to those who voted, Trump's support is lower than the real 2024 result at a 43-43 tie. Why It Matters Despite her loss in the 2024 presidential race, Harris is viewed as a top contender for the 2028 election, which will likely see a crowded field of Democrats vying for the party's nomination. Harris hasn't said for sure she plans to run, and she is also speculated to be considering a run for California's governorship in 2026. Proponents of a Harris 2028 run say she ran a good campaign despite difficult headwinds in 2024. They argue she significantly narrowed the gap compared to former President Joe Biden, who faced a flurry of bad polls after a televised debate against Trump that preceeded his withdrawal from the race. Others, however, argue that it's time for the party to embrace new leaders, and that her support for moderate Republicans, such as former Representative Liz Cheney, has cost the party among key voter groups. What to Know Trump's approval ratings plummeted after he introduced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, accoding to most pollsters. The move sparked turmoil in stock and bond markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording its largest decline since June 2020 before rebounding days later. Since then several polls have shown that voters don't trust Trump on the economy. That includes the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll which shows that Trump's net approval on the economy stands at -17 points, with 38 approving and 58 disapproving. Trump fares even worse on the issue of prices and inflation, with his net approval at -32 points, with 31 percent approving and 63 percent disapproving. Meanwhile, the poll shows that a majority of Americans (53 percent) believe the national economy has worsened over the past year, while just 25 percent think it has improved. Views on personal finances are slightly more stable, with 42 percent saying their situation is unchanged, 36 percent reporting it has worsened, and 19 percent feeling better off. When it comes to President Trump's economic policies, 56 percent say they've made the economy worse, compared to 22 percent who say they've helped. Another 15 percent see no impact, and 7 percent are unsure. Read more Is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez actually electable? Is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez actually electable? But Trump is not just underwater on the economy. The Numbers/Verasight poll shows that he is underwater on all issues except border, mirroring the latest Fox News poll which showed the same result. That means that Trump's approval rating is also just underwater on the issue of immigration, previously his strongest issue, with 49 percent disapproving and 47 percent approving. It comes amid increased legal scrutiny and criticism of Trump's deportation policies, including the controversial removal of migrants to a notorious prison in El Salvador. One high-profile case involves Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was deported from Maryland in what the DOJ called an "administrative error." The Trump administration labeled Garcia a member of MS-13, now designated a terrorist group, but his family and lawyers deny any connection. And the Numbers/Verasight poll suggests that Garcia's case may be driving negative sentiment about Trump's handling of the economy. In a survey where half the participants were informed about the mistaken deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, support for deporting all undocumented immigrants fell to 39 percent, with 43 percent opposed. When asked specifically about deporting individuals with court-ordered protections like Garcia, nearly half (49 percent) opposed it, while 29 percent supported it and 22 percent were unsure. In a related question, 45 percent of respondents said the U.S. should help wrongly deported immigrants return, compared to 35 percent who favored keeping them abroad. Such discontent with Trump's presidency could play into the hands of Harris, who continues to be a vocal critic of the president, if she decides to run for the White House again in 2028. Harris has not said if she is running, but polls suggest she is the front runner. Polling aggregation site Race to the WH currently shows Harris, who lost to Trump in 2024, leading the pack with a polling average of 27.2 percent. She is followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in second at 15.9 percent, former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg in third at 12.8 percent, Senator Cory Booker is fourth at 8.6 percent and California Governor Gavin Newsom is fifth at 7.1 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the Emerge 20th Anniversary Gala in San Francisco, Wednesday, April 30, 2025. Former Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the Emerge 20th Anniversary Gala in San Francisco, Wednesday, April 30, 2025. Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP However, some polls tell a different story. An April poll from Data for Progress found that while Harris is still favored among likely Democratic primary voters, a growing number are leaning toward other candidates such as Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez or Booker. Of those, 18 percent said they would vote for Harris in the primary. Fourteen percent said they would back Buttigieg and 12 percent would vote for each Ocasio-Cortez and Booker. Eight percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Newsom, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro won support from 5 percent of respondents. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker each received the backing of four percent of respondents. This was Harris' weakest showing among other polls of the 2028 primary. An Echelon Insights poll of 449 registered voters from April 10 to April 11, 2025, showed her with 28 percent support. A YouGov poll of 650 registered voters from March 30 to April 1, 2025, showed her with 25 percent. A SurveyUSA poll of 835 likely voters from February 13 to 16, 2025, showed her with 37 percent support. What People Are Saying Senator John Hickenlooper, the Democrat from Colorado, told The Hill: "I think she will add value to" the national conversation. "What's going to happen over the next six to 18 months is going to be lots of Democrats having lots of different opinions about what our priorities should be. What are the values we have to put first?" "I think she will have a valuable perspective on that," he said. Senator Martin Heinrich, the Democrat from New Mexico, toldthe same newspaper: "I'm a big fan of Kamala Harris, I enjoyed serving with her. I think given the time frame that we have, which is very different from what we were dealing with last time, that it's going to be an open process." What Happens Next The next real presidential elections are scheduled for November 7, 2028.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
538's former top numbers guy to launch data journalism site
The former head of 538, shuttered last year by ABC News, is building a new media outlet aimed at recapturing the defunct polling news site's audience and building the kind of serious data journalism that has been abandoned by most legacy news organizations. On Monday, G. Elliott Morris, the data journalist who took over 538 in 2023, is launching Strength In Numbers, a paid Substack that he plans on growing into a publication to rival his old website. The site, which has been operating for free for the past several months while Morris' agreement with ABC runs out, will have daily items about national politics grounded in data without punditry. In an interview with Semafor, Morris said that he was excited about the opportunity to build a new digital media organization from the ground up. But he said that part of the offering is aimed at correcting what he sees as the failures of legacy broadcast journalism in the 2020s, both in its business model and in what he said was its inability to speak honestly about threats to democracy. 'The moment we're in in journalism and democracy right now is a lot harder to talk about if your news outlet is sort of expressly devoted to not pissing people off,' he said. He added: 'We're going to be really nerdy about the news and talk to you like people, not treat you like idiots, and not try to obscure the story.'After ABC decided in 2023 to cut costs at 538, resulting in layoffs and the departure of founder Nate Silver, it shocked the political journalism community with a surprising and somewhat bold move: hiring Morris, his upstart rival, to be 538's editorial director of data analytics. The then-26-year-old pollster and analyst cast the moment as an opportunity to rebuild the site. But by mid-way through 2024, Morris and 538's relationship with ABC had deteriorated significantly. His election forecast model was more heavily weighted in favor of historical fundamentals like incumbency, and was suspicious of early state public opinion surveys — impulses that had served Morris and his team when accurately predicting the outcome of congressional elections at The Economist in 2018 and the presidential race in 2020 (he was slightly less successful in 2022). But after Joe Biden's disastrous position in a June debate, his emphasis on the non-polling elements distinguished him from his competitors in a way that was unpleasant for skittish ABC higher-ups. The network became uncomfortable that its analytic model was an outlier among the polls and poll aggregators in showing Biden still with a 50% chance of winning the election the debate. Biden's departure from the race allowed 538 to reset its election forecast model. But the network was done with the unwanted attention. Semafor reported in August that 538 had adjusted its model following Biden's decision to leave the 2024 race, but that rollout was delayed amid internal disagreement within ABC over whether and how much to explain the methodological revisions. ABC's communications team also prohibited the staff from discussing or disclosing many details about the changes publicly, and the company's lawyer strongly suggested changes to its methodology posts. Ultimately, 538 said the race was a coin toss, but correctly predicted that Republicans were likely to hold onto the Senate. The ordeal frustrated staff at 538 and Morris, who had been open on X about his methodologies, and who felt that ABC had handicapped the team's ability to do its job well and communicate with an audience desperate to understand the flood of political information. 'To the extent ABC has a PR strategy, it's to deny and obfuscate, and hope that reputational hits heal magically by virtue of passing time. That strategy was constantly in conflict with ours, which focused on earning trust through transparency and personal author-audience relationships,' he said. 'There is no reckoning internally with the brand's loss of credibility over the last 20 years.' Morris feels that the new independence will allow him to run a more nimble but expansive organization. He told Semafor that Strength In Numbers will also start doing some of its own surveys, and is launching a monthly online poll with a partner on Tuesday. Morris told Semafor that he has 16,000 free subscribers after just a few weeks on Substack, and hopes to generate enough revenue from paid subscriptions to scale up and hire more staff within the next several months (he expects that 6% of them will convert to paid subscribers, in line but slightly above what Substack told him it sees for publications on average). 'There's enough interest that with just a little bit of monetization, know-how and content, you can make enough for it to be sustainable, at least at the beginning, from a small group of people,' he said. 'And maybe, if you scale it up, even a lot of people.'
Yahoo
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Some loud voices in MAGA world are starting to decry Trump's immigration policies
As the Trump administration defends its law enforcement tactics — ranging from its deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia to its targeting of pro-Palestinian protesters — the White House is presenting its policies as no-brainers, questionable only to liberal cranks who are detached from reality. As USA Today noted recently, President Donald Trump is leaning into the fight over his illiberal deportation plans as a fight he thinks he can win. But it's worth noting that even MAGA-friendly voices have decried some of the administration's moves. Last week, for example, podcaster Joe Rogan criticized the administration for carrying out deportations without due process, calling it 'dangerous.' Granted, Rogan sandwiched his point between saying the administration was engaging in 'overcorrection' on the issue and that 'we got to be careful that we don't become monsters while we're fighting monsters,' but the point was noteworthy coming from someone known for promoting far-right propaganda. Rogan also criticized a recent deportation effort as 'horrific.' On 'Meet the Press' on Sunday, Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., called the Trump administration's deportation of Abrego Garcia a 'screw-up' and said the Trump administration won't admit it. And far-right influencer Charlie Kirk recently condemned former U.S. Ambassador David Friedman's celebration of the Trump administration's potential deportations of immigrants over antisemitism claims. Kirk's argument was also couched in MAGA propaganda. Here's an excerpt: Racism and antisemitism are both evil and must be opposed. But a government organized around jailing, impoverishing, or silencing people based on 'racism' is what our enemies wanted. We should not repeat their mistakes just because some keffiyeh-wearing communists are protesting on campuses. To state the obvious, these are not bleeding-heart liberals. But they stand as examples of the widely varying views many Americans have about what constitutes immigration enforcement. And they speak to why people like data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues — correctly, I believe — that there is political 'opportunity' in Trump's 'overreach.' In a recent post for his Strength In Numbers blog, Morris uses polling data to argue that while a large number of Americans may tell pollsters they support Trump's handling of immigration in a broad sense, there's also data showing widespread opposition to specific aspects of his administration's immigration agenda — including its defiance of federal courts, its potential proposal to send U.S. citizens to foreign prisons, and its deportations of immigrants who haven't broken any laws other than immigration laws. That data, along with the recent critiques from some of the loudest MAGA-friendly voices, shows there is plenty of room for Democrats to target Trump on the issue. This article was originally published on
