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Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Should Democrats stick with Harris? New poll shows surprising result in Trump rematch
If President Donald Trump and Former Vice President Kamala Harris were to have a rematch election, Harris would be the victor, according to a new poll. The Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll shows Harris winning 40% of the vote in a hypothetical rematch while Trump only wins 36%. Only 1% of adults who responded said they were undecided. Even though 40% of adults said they would vote for Harris over Trump, 43% of them said they would not vote at all, according to the poll. If you remove those who won't vote from the poll, however, Harris is still the victor, receiving 47% of the vote to Trump's 42%. The survey's findings present a scenario where the electorate is not pleased with Trump's overall performance, according to the poll's summary. The poll found that 56% of respondents said they think Trump's policy decisions have made the economy worse, while 22% said the policies have made things better. A total of 15% said the impact of Trump's policies is neutral and 7% said they 'don't know' or are 'not sure,' the poll's summary reads. Despite these dour numbers for the president, the Democratic Party only has a slim advantage when it comes to voters trusting them on policy issues. When it comes to jobs and the economy, 41% of adults responded that they trust Democrats to handle this issue better than Republicans. Only 39% said they trust the GOP more on jobs and the economy, according to the poll. Democrats also have a slight advantage on inflation, with 38% of adults saying they trust the party over the GOP while 37% say the opposite. Democrats do have a sizable advantage on three issues: government funding and social programs (48% trust Democrats, 35% trust Republicans), healthcare (46% Democrats, 33% GOP) and education (46% Democrats, 35% GOP). Republicans, meanwhile, hold an advantage on immigration. Of those who participated in the poll, 46% of adults trust Republicans on the issue of immigration over Democrats, while 33% trust Democrats over Republicans. For border security, the GOP holds an advantage here, too, with 50% of adults trusting the Republicans on border security over Democrats. Only 29% of respondents say Democrats are better trusted on this issue. Republicans also have a leg up on Democrats when it comes to deportations, with 45% of adults trusting the GOP over Democrats and 34% saying they trust the Democrats over the GOP. On the issue of foreign policy, however, both parties were tied at 40% each, according to the poll. If the 2026 midterm elections were held today, 47% of adults said they were more likely to vote for a Democrat for their congressional district compared to 41% who said they would vote for a Republican. A total of 12% of adults said they don't know or are not sure. 'Voters do not trust the major parties to handle the country's most pressing problems,' the poll's summary reads. 'With control of Congress up for grabs in 2026, voters look to be leaning toward Democrats, and disproportionately regret voting for Trump in 2024,' it added. 'But Republicans retain a strong base of support and are not down and out yet.' The poll has a sample size of 1,000 U.S. adult residents and was conducted from May 1-6, 2025. It has a margin of error of 3.2%. Who will be Donald Trump's successor? New poll shows clear favorite Boston mayoral candidates clash over city budget, housing and transit in first forum Trump admin announces certain Social Security beneficiaries will face 15% cuts in June Trump administration continues 'unraveling' Harvard as it cancels wave of grants Is Qatar's 'palace in the sky' 747 offered to Trump a flying white elephant? Read the original article on MassLive.
Miami Herald
15-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Would Trump or Harris win in an election rematch today? What a new poll found
If the 2024 presidential election were held again today, President Donald Trump might not win the White House, according to new polling. In a Strength in Numbers/Verasight survey, 40% of respondents said they would vote for former Vice President Kamala Harris 'if the U.S. was holding a do-over election today.' Meanwhile, 36% said they would cast their ballot for Trump, and 1% said they were undecided. And, when respondents who said they would not vote in a rematch were removed, Harris led Trump 47% to 42%. The former vice president also held a sizable advantage over Trump — 36% to 22% — among respondents who said they did not vote in the 2024 election. In contrast, respondents who did vote in 2024 were split 43% to 43% over the two candidates. The poll sampled 1,000 U.S. adults May 1-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. A similar poll — conducted by Emerson College in April — asked how respondents would cast their ballot 'if they could go back in time to the 2024 election, knowing what they know now.' In this survey, Trump came out slightly ahead. Ninety-three percent of Harris voters said they would leave their vote unchanged, while 94% of Trump voters said the same, giving him a 48% to 47% advantage. Other findings The latest survey also found that a majority of respondents, 56%, disapprove of the job Trump has done so far, while 40% approve. The president is also underwater on nearly every issue. For example, 63% disapprove of his handling of prices and inflation; 55% disapprove of his job on the economy and 54% rate him negatively on foreign policy. A majority, 52%, approve of him when it comes to just one issue: border security. Further, 53% of respondents said the economy is worse today than it was at the same time last year, while just 25% believe it is better. And most say Trump is to blame for this. Fifty-six percent of respondents said the president's 'policy decisions have made the economy worse,' while just 22% said they have improved the economy. The poll also found that Democrats have reason to be hopeful when it comes to future elections. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they'd be more likely to vote for a Democrat in the 2026 midterm elections, while 41% said they'd be more prone to voting for a Republican.
Mint
07-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Global shipping is grinding to a standstill. It's a matter of time until Americans feel it.
There aren't shortages of goods in U.S. stores yet, but if the deterioration in global shipping is any indication, they are on the way. That could complicate the White House's pleas for Americans to be patient as trade officials rush to strike dozens of deals. Cargo has dropped, or is expected to, at major ports including those of Los Angeles; Long Beach, Calif.; and New York-New Jersey, primarily on shipments from China, which exports more than any other country to the U.S. U.S. import booking volumes have dropped 35% since late March, according to the shipping data company Vizion, including a 26% drop between the week ended April 21 and the following week. Shipments from China dropped nearly 43% in the last full week of April, the sharpest decline of the year. During April, several weeks saw China import bookings down by more than half, Vizion said. The potential impact on companies and consumers is broad. Imports of Chinese electronics, plastics, vehicles, steel, and textiles have all fallen by more than half. Perhaps just as concerning for some farmers and U.S. manufacturers is that export bookings to China have also collapsed. In the last full week of April, the number of 20-foot-equivalent containers booked to go to China fell 73% from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive week with at least a 60% drop, Vizion said. That is despite U.S. exports staying relatively strong overall. China's major imports from the U.S. include soybeans and other grains, oil and gas, and semiconductors, among other electronics components. The recent export decline is 'raising concerns for our agricultural and manufacturing partners as continued tariffs on exports begin to really take effect," said Eugene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, at a port board meeting at the end of April. Major trade routes have been upended by President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of enormous tariffs on imports. Trump suspended most of the 'reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days a week later, but let tariffs against China go into effect, eventually raising them to 145% for most products. China retaliated with tariffs of its own. Now, trade officials are rushing to strike preliminary agreements with other nations before the pause is lifted in July. Americans' expectation of pain is causing political problems for Trump even though they haven't yet resulted in higher prices. About 43.5% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing, compared to 51.8% who disapprove, according to a polling average by newsletter Strength in Numbers. That gap is about six percentage points wider than it was when Trump made the tariff announcement. White House officials have said that Americans need to 'Trust Trump" as he negotiates with trading partners. 'The administration is both delivering short-term economic relief from inflation while laying the groundwork for a long-term economic resurgence," a White House official told Barron's in an email on Tuesday, pointing to recent declines in inflation and a surge in imports in the first quarter as companies sought to avoid tariffs. Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday told reporters that Chinese officials 'want to meet" with the U.S. to discuss trade. The problem for the White House is that shipping activity indicates that pain for consumers is on the way. In addition to reporting falling bookings, shippers have been cutting rates and capacity on major lines. Capacity between Asia and the U.S. East Coast is down 22% in April and 18% in May from what had previously been scheduled, while capacity between the Asia and the West Coast is down 20% and 12% in April and May respectively, according to the maritime research firm Drewry. 'The shipping lines are trying to balance collapsing Asia-to-U.S. demand with their capacity both by cancelling dozens of sailings and by ending entire weekly services," said Philip Damas, head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, in a company video on Monday. Container ships take about a month to arrive in the U.S. from Asia, and another 15 days to make it to the East Coast. Products can take another couple of weeks to make it from the port to trucks and, eventually, to store shelves. Companies have been able to see some of the trade threat coming for weeks, giving them the opportunity to stock up on inventory ahead of time to avoid the taxes. So it could be mid May before consumers start to see the full effects of Trump's April 2 announcement of heavy tariffs against China. The first effects of the tariffs are likely to show up in the consumer-price index report for May, which comes out on June 11, said analysts for TD Cowen in a research note on Monday. 'The bulk of the impact could come over the summer, as businesses and retailers start running out of low-cost inventories," the analysts said. Write to Joe Light at
Newsweek
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Suffers 'Complete Inversion'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump's approval rating among low-engagement voters has seen a "complete inversion," according to new polling. Why It Matters Previous analysis had shown that "opt-out" voters—low-engagement citizens who rarely consume political news and often skip elections—broke for Trump by double digits in 2024, reversing a historic Democratic advantage among nonvoters. For example, a post-election survey from Navigator Research found that the voters who paid the most attention to the news in 2024 voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 percentage points, while those who paid no attention at all voted for Trump by 19 points. However, new data suggests that the tables may turn on Trump, with "opt-out" voters now driving a dramatic collapse in his approval rating. What To Know New polling shows that Trump's approval among disengaged voters has dropped faster and more dramatically than among any other group, reversing the very dynamic that propelled him to victory. Data from Pew and YouGov indicate that support among so-called "opt-out" voters—those least likely to follow the news or vote—has cratered. Trump's net approval fell by as much as 33 points in just three months among people who say they consume little or no political news. In the first poll by YouGov/The Economist of Trump's second term, conducted January 26–28 among 1,577 adults, net approval among the least-engaged news consumers was +12. In their latest poll, fielded April 25–28 among 1,785 adults, that figure dropped to -21. In comparison, among Americans who say they follow the news "most of the time," Trump's approval fell by just 14 points. Meanwhile, polling by the Pew Research Center also found that Trump's approval rating has taken a hit among people who did not vote in 2024. In Pew's January 27 to February 2 poll, conducted among 5,086 adults, 44 percent of 2024 nonvoters approved of Trump's job performance. Fast-forward two months, and Pew's latest poll, conducted between April 7 and 13 among 3,589 respondents, shows that figure had dropped to 31 percent—a 13-point decline, outpacing the 7-point slide among the general public. This shift amounts to what G Elliott Morris, the former director of 538, calls a "complete inversion" of the political engagement dynamic that defined the 2024 election. "The people who pay the least attention to the news and are the least involved in the political process are now the least likely to support Trump, rather than the most likely," he wrote in his blog, Strength in Numbers. So what changed? According to Morris, it's not about ideology but economics. Many opt-out voters likely remembered the pre-pandemic economy under Trump as relatively strong, associating Joe Biden's term with inflation and instability, he said. But now that Trump is back in office and economic conditions remain shaky, with rising prices, market volatility, and a stubborn cost-of-living crisis, those same voters are expressing frustration. He added that this trend reflects a broader phenomenon: the engagement gap. Many Americans are tuning out politics in today's polarized media environment, but that doesn't make them immune to its consequences, Morris wrote. Instead, they become unusually responsive to real-world conditions, particularly economic ones, and are less likely to filter their opinions through partisan media or elite discourse. As Morris puts it, disengaged voters "may be more rational in reacting to economic stimulus," even if they're less attuned to policy nuance. "These are people who don't read The New York Times, don't watch Sunday shows, and don't track policy details," Morris wrote. "But they notice when their bills go up, their rent spikes, or their 401(k)s shrink." President Donald Trump attends Turning Point USA's AmericaFest in Phoenix, Arizona, on December 22, 2024. President Donald Trump attends Turning Point USA's AmericaFest in Phoenix, Arizona, on December 22, drop in support for Trump among low-engagement voters has come in the wake of worsening economic signals. A surprise spike in inflation in February was followed by market turmoil after Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on "Liberation Day" last month. The announcement triggered an immediate sell-off, briefly shaking investor confidence before markets rebounded days later. However, the broader economy has yet to stabilize. In late April, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the first economic contraction in three years. As a result, recent polls have shown a dramatic erosion of public confidence in Trump's handling of his job. For example, in ActiVote's latest poll, Trump's approval rating stood at 45 percent, while 51 percent disapproved, giving the president a net approval of -6 points. ActiVote's March poll showed Trump with a net approval rating of -1 point, with 48 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving. And in the latest YouGov/Yahoo poll, conducted April 25-28 among 1,597 respondents, his approval dropped from 44 percent in March to 42 percent, while disapproval rose from 50 percent to 53 percent, widening his net negative from –6 to –11. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Emerson College released a poll last week that showed Trump's approval rating had dropped marginally, from 47 percent to 45 percent, since March, while his disapproval rating remained the same at 45 percent. The most recent poll was conducted April 25-28 among 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Polls have also shown fears about the state of the economy on the rise. A Navigator Research poll conducted April 24–28 found that Trump's net approval on the economy has dropped to -16, with just 40 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving—his worst rating on the economy in the group's tracking history. His numbers on inflation and tariffs were even more dismal, with net approval ratings of -29 and -26, respectively. Other surveys reflect this growing concern. A recent Decision Desk HQ/NewsNation poll showed that 82 percent of voters are worried about a potential recession, and 59 percent say inflation is the country's biggest problem. Amid such an economic climate, Democrats see an opening to win over low-engagement voters. In a recent op-ed, Kamala Harris' 2024 campaign manager, Ron Flaherty, wrote that while winning engaged voters is about "facts," winning disengaged voters is about "attention." He argued that Democrats must seize this moment to offer a compelling economic vision, not just to oppose Trump but to provide an alternative. Still, the volatility of opt-out voters presents a warning for both parties. Morris notes that "we may be in an environment where engagement polarization means it's inherently harder for incumbents to win re-election." If current trends hold, Morris argues, Trump and the Republican Party may have squandered a key strategic asset: the support of voters who, in 2024, weren't really paying attention but showed up anyway. "Trump has lost arguably the best advantage the Republicans had for the future. And if conditions remain poor, they may lose ground, not gain it," Morris wrote. What People Are Saying G Elliott Morris, the former director of 538, wrote in a blog post: "The people who pay the least attention to the news and are the least involved in the political process are now the least likely to support Trump, rather than the most likely. That is a complete inversion of the relationship between engagement and support for Trump in 2024, and a return to the old dynamic of less-informed/engaged voters being systematically more friendly to Democratic candidates and causes." What Happens Next Trump's approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events, including critical negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, the evolving tariff situation and concerns about a recession.
