Latest news with #SuhaimiIlias
New Straits Times
18-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Malaysia's economy to stay steady, ringgit-US dollar stronger at 4.100 by year-end
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's economy is expected to remain resilient in the second half of 2025 (2H25), with the ringgit strengthening to 4.100 against the US by year-end, economists said. This will be driven by domestic fundamentals, easing monetary policy, targeted reforms and softer greenback, amid persistent external headwinds, they said. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) chief economist Suhaimi Ilias said Malaysia is on track to achieve a lower budget deficit of 3.8 per cent of gross domestic product this year. This follows a better-than-expected deficit of 4.1 per cent in 2024 compared to the official target of 4.3 per cent. "The numbers so far are encouraging. Obviously, after things like the Sales and Service Tax measures effective July 1, I guess eyes are on these targeted RON95 petrol subsidy rationalisation," he said at a virtual media briefing on the 2H25 market outlook today. Maybank IB head of FX research Saktiandi Supaat said the ringgit has been one of Asean top performers so far this year, appreciating against the greeback by about 5.25 per cent year-to-date. "Our view is that the ringgit is around its fair value. We also project the US dollar-ringgit to strengthen towards 4.10 by the end of this year and move closer to 4.00 by mid-2026," said Saktiandi. The investment bank flagged several key upcoming policy milestones. They include the 13th Malaysia Plan mid-term review on July 31, launch of the National Investment Incentive Framework, unveiling of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone blueprint and 2026 Budget to be tabled on Oct 10. "Of course, we need to keep monitoring the global situation, especially with the tariff uncertainties in the US. The risk is if this escalates further, we may see more volatility in global trade flows again," Suhaimi said. "The numbers suggest the trajectory remains encouraging. The key is to keep the momentum, especially with policy support and domestic drivers in place," he added. Bank Negara Malaysia has forecast Malaysia's economy to grow between 4.5 and 5.5 per cent in 2025, from 5.1 per cent in 2024. The GDP expanded 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. On the equity market, Maybank IB retained its Bursa Malaysia benchmark FBM KLCI's year-end target at 1,660, anchored by improving forward earnings and several key investment themes. Its head of equity research Lim Sue Lin said five core themes continue to drive the bank's strategy on external disruption, domestic consumption, state-driven development, investment realisation and corporate restructuring. "As for the top stock picks, it includes Tenaga Nasional Bhd, YTL Power International Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, Public Bank Bhd, KPJ Healthcare, Farm Fresh Bhd and Solarvest Holdings Bhd, with YTL Power and Gamuda being the leading data centre plays," she said. She added that although the broader market remained range-bound due to a lack of immediate catalysts, rising activity in infrastructure, renewable energy, and data centres had strengthened the firm's conviction in those segments. Maybank IB maintained a "Neutral" stance on banks due to margin compression and slower loan growth expectations following the latest Overnight Policy Rate cut. "Still, we forecast FBM KLCI earnings to grow 2.5 per cent in 2025 and 7.7 per cent in 2026, with a rebound anticipated in the banking sector next year," Lim added. FBM KLCI slipped on Tuesday and Wednesday, erasing recent gains as global and local uncertainties cast a shadow over near-term market prospects. The slid 13.9 points to 1,511.5 on Tuesday, being weighed down by lingering uncertainty over US-Malaysia tariff negotiations, the risks of potential US export controls on AI chip shipments to Malaysia and persistent foreign outflows. On Thursday, the index ended 9.44 points or 0.62 per cent higher to 1,520.94.
The Star
17-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Maybank IB expects Bank Negara to maintain OPR rate at 2.75% until year-end
KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent for the rest of the year after the 25 basis points reduction on July 9. Based on the briefing following last week's monetary policy committee meeting, Maybank IB's group chief economist, Suhaimi Ilias, said the investment bank believes that BNM is likely adopting a "one-cut-and-done' approach to rate cuts. "At the moment, we don't expect any more cuts from BNM. I know they have flagged the downward revision to gross domestic product (GDP) growth at the end of this month. Currently, the official growth forecast for this year is 4.5 - 5.5 per cent. "I think the message seems to be that it's not a major downward revision. So I guess that also suggests that BNM has factored in the rate cut impact on the economy,' he said during a virtual media briefing on Maybank IB's Market Outlook for the second half of the year (2H 2025) today. He said the interest rate cuts will be positive for consumer spending, which is the biggest component of ASEAN economies' GDP. "Based on GDP numbers up to the first quarter of this year, private consumption is resilient in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, and retail sales for Vietnam as well as Singapore are improving as well,' he said. Suhaimi added that the investment bank has also maintained its GDP forecast for Malaysia at 4.1 per cent growth this year, down from last year's average of 5.1 per cent. "We have already revised our GDP number twice. The first time was in April, following the (United States) Liberation Day announcement of a reciprocal tariff, where we had factored in the impact of a 24 per cent tariff come July 9, although that deadline has been extended to Aug 1 with the tariff at 25 per cent. "It is not much of a difference in terms of the potential tariff that Malaysia will face come Aug 1. We still have some time left to negotiate and deal with the US to get to a better landing as far as tariff is concerned,' he said. While global uncertainties, particularly around the US trade policy and rising tariffs, have led to a downward revision from the initial 4.9 per cent GDP forecast, Suhaimi said Malaysia is expected to draw strength from resilient domestic demand and an ongoing investment upcycle. "Key drivers include consumer spending, supportive government policy and capital investment activity across sectors such as manufacturing, industrial properties and infrastructure,' he said. Suhaimi said the bank remains optimistic about private consumption, projecting a 5.3 per cent growth in 2025, driven by household income support measures and continued investment momentum. Meanwhile, Maybank IB has also maintained its FBM KLCI target at a base case of 1,660 this year, assuming further de-escalation of trade tensions and favourable tariff negotiations. Its head of equity research, Lim Sue Lin, said for now, the investment bank projects the local benchmark index to hover around 1,550-1,600, although with good news, it could end at 1,660. "The banking sector accounts for 50 per cent of earnings contribution to the KLCI. Even if you're looking at a 1.0 per cent earnings growth for the banks in 2025, it matters. "We're expecting some recovery in 2026, likely with some clawback from credit costs, no more interest rate cuts and a bit more stability in the overall macro scenario. We do think that the banks remain a crucial driver to where the KLCI could go,' she said. On the ringgit outlook, Maybank's head of foreign exchange research, Saktiandi Supaat, said the local currency's outlook is mildly bullish. "Overall, the ringgit will be at 4.10 by end-2025, buoyed by a softening US dollar, portfolio inflows and supportive domestic reforms. "Despite rising foreign currency deposits among corporates, conversion into ringgit remains slow, offering potential upside,' he said, adding that the ringgit is still fundamentally supported by fair valuation and structural policies. - Bernama
New Straits Times
17-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Maybank IB: Malaysia's economy to stay resilient in 2H25
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's economy is expected to remain resilient in the second half of 2025 (2H25), driven by domestic fundamentals, easing monetary policy and targeted reforms amid persistent external headwinds, said Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB). Its chief economist Suhaimi Ilias said Malaysia is on track to achieve a lower budget deficit of 3.8 per cent of gross domestic product this year, following a better-than-expected 4.1 per cent in 2024 compared to the official target of 4.3 per cent. "The numbers so far are encouraging. Obviously, after things like the Sales and Service Tax measures effective July 1, I guess eyes are on these targeted RON95 petrol subsidy rationalisation," he said during the virtual media briefing on the 2H25 market outlook. On equities, Maybank IB has retained its FBM KLCI year-end target at 1,660, anchored by improving forward earnings and several key investment themes. Its head of equity research Lim Sue Lin said five core themes continue to drive the bank's strategy on external disruption, domestic consumption, state-driven development, investment realisation, and corporate restructuring. "As for the top stock picks, it includes Tenaga Nasional Bhd, YTL Power International Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, Public Bank Bhd, KPJ Healthcare, Farm Fresh Bhd and Solarvest Holdings Bhd, with YTL Power and Gamuda being the leading data centre plays," she said. She added that although the broader market remained range-bound due to a lack of immediate catalysts, rising activity in infrastructure, renewable energy, and data centres had strengthened the firm's conviction in those segments. "Maybank IB maintained a 'Neutral' stance on banks due to margin compression and slower loan growth expectations following the latest Overnight Policy Rate cut. "Still, we forecast FBM KLCI earnings to grow 2.5 per cent in 2025 and 7.7 per cent in 2026, with a rebound anticipated in the banking sector next year," Lim added. Meanwhile, Maybank IB head of FX research Saktiandi Supaat said the ringgit may strengthen slightly to 4.10 against the US dollar by end-2025. "Local currency has been one of Asean top performers so far this year, appreciating by about 5.25 per cent year-to-date. Our view is that the ringgit is around its fair value. We also project the dollar-ringgit to strengthen towards 4.10 by the end of this year and move closer to 4.00 by mid-2026," said Saktiandi. Looking ahead, the bank flagged several key upcoming policy milestones which the 13th Malaysia Plan mid-term review on July 31, the launch of the National Investment Incentive Framework, the unveiling of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) blueprint, and Budget 2026, which is expected to be tabled on October 10. Despite the external uncertainties, Maybank IB remained cautiously optimistic about Malaysia's outlook for 2H25, citing continued reform momentum and a relatively resilient domestic backdrop. "Of course, we need to keep monitoring the global situation, especially with the tariff uncertainties in the US. The risk is if this escalates further, we may see more volatility in global trade flows again.
New Straits Times
17-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Maybank IB expects BNM to maintain OPR rate at 2.75 pct until year-end
KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent for the rest of the year after the 25 basis points reduction on July 9. Based on the briefing following last week's monetary policy committee meeting, Maybank IB's group chief economist, Suhaimi Ilias, said the investment bank believes that BNM is likely adopting a "one-cut-and-done" approach to rate cuts. "At the moment, we don't expect any more cuts from BNM. I know they have flagged the downward revision to gross domestic product (GDP) growth at the end of this month. Currently, the official growth forecast for this year is 4.5 - 5.5 per cent. "I think the message seems to be that it's not a major downward revision. So I guess that also suggests that BNM has factored in the rate cut impact on the economy," he said during a virtual media briefing on Maybank IB's Market Outlook for the second half of the year (2H 2025) today. He said the interest rate cuts will be positive for consumer spending, which is the biggest component of ASEAN economies' GDP. "Based on GDP numbers up to the first quarter of this year, private consumption is resilient in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, and retail sales for Vietnam as well as Singapore are improving as well," he said. Suhaimi added that the investment bank has also maintained its GDP forecast for Malaysia at 4.1 per cent growth this year, down from last year's average of 5.1 per cent. "We have already revised our GDP number twice. The first time was in April, following the (United States) Liberation Day announcement of a reciprocal tariff, where we had factored in the impact of a 24 per cent tariff come July 9, although that deadline has been extended to Aug 1 with the tariff at 25 per cent. "It is not much of a difference in terms of the potential tariff that Malaysia will face come Aug 1. We still have some time left to negotiate and deal with the US to get to a better landing as far as tariff is concerned," he said. While global uncertainties, particularly around the US trade policy and rising tariffs, have led to a downward revision from the initial 4.9 per cent GDP forecast, Suhaimi said Malaysia is expected to draw strength from resilient domestic demand and an ongoing investment upcycle. "Key drivers include consumer spending, supportive government policy and capital investment activity across sectors such as manufacturing, industrial properties and infrastructure," he said. Suhaimi said the bank remains optimistic about private consumption, projecting a 5.3 per cent growth in 2025, driven by household income support measures and continued investment momentum. Meanwhile, Maybank IB has also maintained its FBM KLCI target at a base case of 1,660 this year, assuming further de-escalation of trade tensions and favourable tariff negotiations. Its head of equity research, Lim Sue Lin, said for now, the investment bank projects the local benchmark index to hover around 1,550-1,600, although with good news, it could end at 1,660. "The banking sector accounts for 50 per cent of earnings contribution to the KLCI. Even if you're looking at a 1.0 per cent earnings growth for the banks in 2025, it matters. "We're expecting some recovery in 2026, likely with some clawback from credit costs, no more interest rate cuts and a bit more stability in the overall macro scenario. We do think that the banks remain a crucial driver to where the KLCI could go," she said. On the ringgit outlook, Maybank's head of foreign exchange research, Saktiandi Supaat, said the local currency's outlook is mildly bullish. "Overall, the ringgit will be at 4.10 by end-2025, buoyed by a softening US dollar, portfolio inflows and supportive domestic reforms. "Despite rising foreign currency deposits among corporates, conversion into ringgit remains slow, offering potential upside," he said, adding that the ringgit is still fundamentally supported by fair valuation and structural policies.
Barnama
17-07-2025
- Business
- Barnama
Maybank IB Expects BNM To Maintain OPR Rate At 2.75 Pct Until Year-end
BUSINESS KUALA LUMPUR, July 17 (Bernama) -- Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent for the rest of the year after the 25 basis points reduction on July 9. Based on the briefing following last week's monetary policy committee meeting, Maybank IB's group chief economist, Suhaimi Ilias, said the investment bank believes that BNM is likely adopting a 'one-cut-and-done' approach to rate cuts. 'At the moment, we don't expect any more cuts from BNM. I know they have flagged the downward revision to gross domestic product (GDP) growth at the end of this month. Currently, the official growth forecast for this year is 4.5 - 5.5 per cent. 'I think the message seems to be that it's not a major downward revision. So I guess that also suggests that BNM has factored in the rate cut impact on the economy,' he said during a virtual media briefing on Maybank IB's Market Outlook for the second half of the year (2H 2025) today. He said the interest rate cuts will be positive for consumer spending, which is the biggest component of ASEAN economies' GDP. 'Based on GDP numbers up to the first quarter of this year, private consumption is resilient in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, and retail sales for Vietnam as well as Singapore are improving as well,' he said. Suhaimi added that the investment bank has also maintained its GDP forecast for Malaysia at 4.1 per cent growth this year, down from last year's average of 5.1 per cent. 'We have already revised our GDP number twice. The first time was in April, following the (United States) Liberation Day announcement of a reciprocal tariff, where we had factored in the impact of a 24 per cent tariff come July 9, although that deadline has been extended to Aug 1 with the tariff at 25 per cent. 'It is not much of a difference in terms of the potential tariff that Malaysia will face come Aug 1. We still have some time left to negotiate and deal with the US to get to a better landing as far as tariff is concerned,' he said.
